beckdawg
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Interesting... Feel like if those guys are sitting it's more than just your do nothing back up catcher.
Interesting... Feel like if those guys are sitting it's more than just your do nothing back up catcher.
beckdawg
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Hmmm
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Its us and the Dodgers. The Tigers really like Candy
beckdawg
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I don't know if it's possible but I'd love to get Norris with Wilson.
CSF77
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Might be a bit much.
Add to it:
Last 7 games:
Hendricks: 1.93 ERA
Lackey: 3.27
Arrieta: 2.70
Lester: 2.57
Quintana: 3.00
The rotation is heading the right direction. Adding Wilson holds more impact.
The thing is we are too concerned with the team next year vs what is happening now. They add Q who helps both. Honestly right now I really don't believe Norris is a game changer and is really not worth giving up assets over. If Lackey fell apart then that would be another topic.
Honestly with Rizzo day to day I'm thinking they hold onto Cartini as he can cover 1B also.
beckdawg
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Norris isn't really about 2017. I'm just thinking if Candelario is going in this deal i feel like he's worth more than Wilson personally especially if you're talking Zagunis also. Granted it's probably also with Avila but i still think those two aren't worth Zagunis and Candelario. On the other hand if it were those 2 and norris for candelario zagunis and 2-3 lower level guys with upsideI'd be ok with this. Norris needs some time at AAA probably anyways as he's not pitching well.
chibears55
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Makes sense with Norris...
I really don't see Epstein dumping Lackey now..
Norris can go to Iowa and most likely get some starts in September to give rotation an extra day off to get ready for playoff..
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beckdawg
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That's what I'd like but relievers go for stupid prices this time of year. Really hoping it's not Candelario/Zagunis for Avila/Wilson straight up. Just feel you're paying a pretty high price for a back up C you don't *REALLY* need. As an example, Lucroy went for a PTBNL and while he's been awful this year, I think you could argue there's other defensive minded back ups that could be had at that price without really losing much vs avila given he's unlikely to play a whole hell of a lot.
beckdawg
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More infoz
If Paredes is in the deal they better be getting more than Avila and Wilson
CSF77
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Earliest Free Agent: 2019 So Wilson has another year. Honestly it frees up them from having to resign Duesing.
Now 12.3 SO/9 That is pretty high leverage. He has become the set up they need.
Now 12.3 SO/9 That is pretty high leverage. He has become the set up they need.
A.C. Milan
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My favorite teams
Well, we needed a lefty.. i know nothing about Cubs minor league players, it's really impossible for me to follow in Italy, but if Beckdawg is disappointed so am i
CSF77
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Cubs Nearing Deal To Acquire Justin Wilson, Alex Avila
By Jeff Todd | July 30, 2017 at 10:55pm CDT
The Cubs are nearing a deal to acquire two more pieces for the stretch run. If the swap is finalized, both southpaw reliever Justin Wilson and catcher Alex Avila will reportedly head to Chicago in exchange for infielder Jeimer Candelario — who had been the top prospect in the Cubs’ system — and young shortstop Isaac Paredes, along with cash or a player to be named later.
Of course, the Chicago (N.L.) farm has been raided of late, with numerous talented players streaming onto the MLB roster as well as to other organizations. The Cubbies are pushing the pedal to the floor once again, hoping to capitalize on a wave of momentum coming out of the All-Star break that has swept the defending World Series champs back into the NL Central lead.
May 9, 2017; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Detroit Tigers pitcher Justin Wilson against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Though Wilson has perhaps elevated his profile this year, owing to a move into the ninth inning for the Tigers, he hasn’t really changed his baseline performance level. He still works off of a mid-to-upper-nineties heater and is generally slightly more successful against right-handed hitters than lefties. And ERA estimators still value him as a low-to-mid-3’s performer.
That said, there are some notable changes. Through 40 1/3 innings this year, Wilson carries a career-high 14.3% swinging-strike rate and has averaged 12.3 K/9 — well over any prior full-season mark. He’s also allowing more walks (3.6 BB/9) and home runs (1.12 per nine) than usual, with less grounders (38.4%) than ever before. A general shift northward with his pitch location seems to explain the differences, though it’s hard to say it has made him a materially better pitcher.
Regardless of whether one prefers the Wilson of old or the current iteration, he looks to be a high-quality reliever at a bargain rate. Wilson will take home just $2.7MM this year and comes with another season of arb control. Though he’ll surely command a healthy raise, particularly given that he has picked up a few saves in Detroit, Wilson will promise to deliver surplus value over his salary in 2018 as well.
Not to be lost in the shuffle is Avila, who is putting on his best season since 2011 at thirty years of age. He’ll represent a quality option to share time with young stalwart Willson Contreras. Over 263 plate appearances thus far in 2017, Avila owns a .271/.392/.472 batting line. While he has benefited from a .375 BABIP, Avila has traditionally carried lofty batting averages on balls in play. And he has finally returned to the power he showed as a younger player (11 home runs, .202 isolated slugging) while continuing to carry an outstanding walk rate.
Avila delivered plenty of value to the Tigers for the one-year, $2MM contract he signed over the winter. That deal, of course, was agreed to with his father — Tigers GM Al Avila, who also engineered this swap. Whether the elder Avila can pull off any further trades before tomorrow’s deadline remains unclear, but this is another meaningful deal for an organization that hopes to get younger and trim some salary before the start of the 2018 season.
The aim in Detroit, of course, is to field a contender in the relatively near term without requiring the kind of budget-busting expenditures that had become commonplace in recent seasons. Finding affordable, controllable asset is the key to such an undertaking, and Avila will hope he can accmplish that here.
Candelario currently sits just inside the top 100 prospects leaguewide, according to MLB.com, which calls him a serviceable defender at third who can be a quality offensive threat. He’s also ready to contribute in the majors right now, having briefly cracked the bigs in each of the past two seasons. The 23-year-old owns a .266/.361/.507 slash through 330 Triple-A plate appearances this year.
While Candelario may be seen by some as the headliner, Baseball America recently tabbed the 18-year-old Paredes as the better prospect among the two, reflecting that outlet’s lower grade on the former and higher grade on the latter. A well-regarded defensive shortstop from Mexico, Paredes has slashed .261/.341/.399 with seven home runs this year through 380 plate appearances at the Class A level.
Jon Heyman of Fan Rag first said a deal was close (via Twitter), after Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweeted the Cubs were “closing in” on Wilson and that Candelario may be involved, with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link) confirming Candelario’s inclusion. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand noted Avila’s involvement on Twitter, with Ken Rosenthal saying he would indeed go to Chicago (via Twitter). Bruce Levine of 670theScore.com reported the inclusion of Paredes on Twitter. Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press tweeted the cash/PTBNL detail.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
By Jeff Todd | July 30, 2017 at 10:55pm CDT
The Cubs are nearing a deal to acquire two more pieces for the stretch run. If the swap is finalized, both southpaw reliever Justin Wilson and catcher Alex Avila will reportedly head to Chicago in exchange for infielder Jeimer Candelario — who had been the top prospect in the Cubs’ system — and young shortstop Isaac Paredes, along with cash or a player to be named later.
Of course, the Chicago (N.L.) farm has been raided of late, with numerous talented players streaming onto the MLB roster as well as to other organizations. The Cubbies are pushing the pedal to the floor once again, hoping to capitalize on a wave of momentum coming out of the All-Star break that has swept the defending World Series champs back into the NL Central lead.
May 9, 2017; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Detroit Tigers pitcher Justin Wilson against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Though Wilson has perhaps elevated his profile this year, owing to a move into the ninth inning for the Tigers, he hasn’t really changed his baseline performance level. He still works off of a mid-to-upper-nineties heater and is generally slightly more successful against right-handed hitters than lefties. And ERA estimators still value him as a low-to-mid-3’s performer.
That said, there are some notable changes. Through 40 1/3 innings this year, Wilson carries a career-high 14.3% swinging-strike rate and has averaged 12.3 K/9 — well over any prior full-season mark. He’s also allowing more walks (3.6 BB/9) and home runs (1.12 per nine) than usual, with less grounders (38.4%) than ever before. A general shift northward with his pitch location seems to explain the differences, though it’s hard to say it has made him a materially better pitcher.
Regardless of whether one prefers the Wilson of old or the current iteration, he looks to be a high-quality reliever at a bargain rate. Wilson will take home just $2.7MM this year and comes with another season of arb control. Though he’ll surely command a healthy raise, particularly given that he has picked up a few saves in Detroit, Wilson will promise to deliver surplus value over his salary in 2018 as well.
Not to be lost in the shuffle is Avila, who is putting on his best season since 2011 at thirty years of age. He’ll represent a quality option to share time with young stalwart Willson Contreras. Over 263 plate appearances thus far in 2017, Avila owns a .271/.392/.472 batting line. While he has benefited from a .375 BABIP, Avila has traditionally carried lofty batting averages on balls in play. And he has finally returned to the power he showed as a younger player (11 home runs, .202 isolated slugging) while continuing to carry an outstanding walk rate.
Avila delivered plenty of value to the Tigers for the one-year, $2MM contract he signed over the winter. That deal, of course, was agreed to with his father — Tigers GM Al Avila, who also engineered this swap. Whether the elder Avila can pull off any further trades before tomorrow’s deadline remains unclear, but this is another meaningful deal for an organization that hopes to get younger and trim some salary before the start of the 2018 season.
The aim in Detroit, of course, is to field a contender in the relatively near term without requiring the kind of budget-busting expenditures that had become commonplace in recent seasons. Finding affordable, controllable asset is the key to such an undertaking, and Avila will hope he can accmplish that here.
Candelario currently sits just inside the top 100 prospects leaguewide, according to MLB.com, which calls him a serviceable defender at third who can be a quality offensive threat. He’s also ready to contribute in the majors right now, having briefly cracked the bigs in each of the past two seasons. The 23-year-old owns a .266/.361/.507 slash through 330 Triple-A plate appearances this year.
While Candelario may be seen by some as the headliner, Baseball America recently tabbed the 18-year-old Paredes as the better prospect among the two, reflecting that outlet’s lower grade on the former and higher grade on the latter. A well-regarded defensive shortstop from Mexico, Paredes has slashed .261/.341/.399 with seven home runs this year through 380 plate appearances at the Class A level.
Jon Heyman of Fan Rag first said a deal was close (via Twitter), after Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweeted the Cubs were “closing in” on Wilson and that Candelario may be involved, with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link) confirming Candelario’s inclusion. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand noted Avila’s involvement on Twitter, with Ken Rosenthal saying he would indeed go to Chicago (via Twitter). Bruce Levine of 670theScore.com reported the inclusion of Paredes on Twitter. Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press tweeted the cash/PTBNL detail.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
CSF77
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Honestly this is they are going for it in 2017 while adding a potential 2018 closer. Over all you have to pay for that.
beckdawg
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Well he's why I'm disappointed. A) the cubs have traded away Torres, Soler, Vogelbach, McKinney and various others to acquire Montgomery, Chapman, and Davis. That's a lot of quality MLB prospects for relief pitching. So, to be giving up more prospects for more relievers is disheartening. The other thing is Candelario is their best prospect right now. He's pure and simple trade fodder but he's still the best they have. Getting Quintana solves some of the cubs issues but they still need another 1-2 young starters behind Q, Hendricks and Lester. Filling the #5 slot doesn't exactly worry me. The cubs have a ton of options there. But I'd really like to see them with someone who has more #2-3 upside but needs time to develop as their #4. I'm not sure they have that right now at least at AA/AAA. Alzolay is probably the closest
If it was just Candelario going and a lower level prospect I wouldn't love it but I'd get it. What bothers me more is Parades. He's hitting .261/.341/.399 in south bend at the age of 18. Torres at 18 in south bend hit .293/.353/.386. So from a bat only perspective you're talking about similar quality hitter. He's not quite up in the rankings like Torres is but he'll get there sooner or later. People want to talk about the cubs killing their farm system. This is getting a lot closer to that. Paredes probably isn't going to make the cubs MLB roster either but he's very good value.
All that's why I was hoping Norris would be a part of this deal. He's not having a good year but he's a former top 50 prospect and had the cubs got him avila and Wilson for Candelario + Paredes + other stuff I'd be ok with it. Just feel like they are paying a crap load for a back up catcher they don't really need and a reliever that's ok and nice to have but not exactly essential to them winning a world series. I'd honestly rather roll with Caratini and find a cheaper Loogy because now what happens if they don't pay Davis after this season is over? You're then looking to probably buy some other reliever at the next deadline.
CSF77
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I'm thinking that they will deal for Archer this winter. They are not going to deal from the major league roster right now but in the off season they can use F/A to back fill back up types.
What it comes down to is they need a RHP to split up Lester and Q next year. That means a equal to them. At that point you sit with Hendricks and Tseng as the 4/5.
So I expect Alzolay headlining with either Baez/Happ with 2 more prospects. Maybe Wilson and Ademan. That is a good starting point.
But it really is not about having the best farm. It more about windows.
Rebuilding and winning. It is really hard to maintain a top farm when in a window.
But as we have seen that teams can turn over fast by whole sale.
So right now it is more about supporting the mlb team vs funding the future.
beckdawg
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But that's entirely the point... with what? Baez or Happ isn't netting you archer even with any number of combos from the minor league system. And that's the problem with dealing someone like Paredes for a reliever. At this point, Aramis Ademan is basically what's left of the position players. There's some other guys who might break out and have the talent to be worth while but are no where near there yet.
At the end of the day people just aren't going to convince me that relievers make that much difference. I watched both Andrew Miller and Chapman give up big hits in the biggest game of the year. There is no Mariano rivera out there anymore. And frankly, I think you could argue that Montgomery who the cubs paid significantly less for performed as well if not better than chapman. I just don't love the idea of this trade especially when they already have Davis and Edwards.
Iceman2385
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You remind me of the Dodgers FO, very intelligent and know baseball very well, but lack the "balls" to make moves championship teams make. We might not win, and then maybe the Wilson deal wasn't spectacular, but you should take advantage of this oppurtunity. At least he wasn't a rental like last year, he still will help us next year.
And for the record I don't think we lack options next year. I absolutely think we will be in the market for a CCSP, using Baez or Happ as our centerpieces. Even if we can't swing our staff as it stands now next year. Hendricks, Q, and Lester (not bad! Lol). We also have tseng and Montgomery as options next year. I'd be happy acquiring 1 guy from either FA or a trade. Try to trade for a guy like stroman, gray, or even Teheran, etc. if that fails get Cobb or Lynn. Still have a strong staff, with Monty and Tseng dueling it out for the 5 spot.
Cubs r stacked and there present are future are still very bright! Great job thoyer!
beckdawg
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I don't think it's about "having the balls." I mean look I loved the Quintana trade so it's not about making big trades. I just don't buy into relievers. I'd rather have a bunch of "good" relievers rather than a couple "great" ones. I think you can get by with guy's who are split heavy. If you're going to make the bullpen trade I'd just assume they go after guys like Montgomery who were viewed more as fringe rotation guys/LOOGY types with control. The issue with what they are doing re relievers is it's a continual revolving door that just sucks up more and more prospects to the point where you lose most of your organizational depth. Just as an example here, contrast what the Indians did getting Miller with what the cubs did getting Chapman. Obviously you can say the cubs would have had to give up Schwarber to get Miller which I wouldn't have done but by dealing for Chapman the cubs had to pay for not only Chapman but later had to give up Soler to get Davis. Now maybe the Yankees wouldn't do the chapman package + Soler for Miller but the Indians effectively solved their issue of a closer for 4 years rather than one and gave up less to do it.
In regard to this deal, I don't hate Wilson. He's decent enough and at least has some additional control. Why I dislike this deal is because I think they are overpaying to also get Avila. Candelario for Wilson straight up i'd be largely fine. Hell even Candelario plus say Chesny Young I'm fine with. But Paredes may be the best prospect the cubs have come this winter. Most people don't know/care about him because he's 18 but there's only like 12 18-year olds in A ball right now and he's not only hitting but hitting well. He's a really good prospect. With Avila I think you're over paying for a guy on a career year who's a rental. The cubs need a catcher for sure so that Contreras doesn't get burned by September but Lucroy just went for a PTBNL. Lucroy is having a terrible year but I think you could have got a defense only C for a similar price.
And the other aspect of this is about how you prepare for a season. Detroit got Wilson for two prospects in 2015 I've never even heard of and I'm someone who rather obsessively follows prospects. In other words, you're talking guys who are PTBNL types or slightly above that not "real" prospects. The cubs have been mired in signing aging vet relievers who aren't quite good enough to really get paid. I'm talking your Koji's, your Cahills, your Richards....etc. Now I'm not saying the cubs should be omnipotent and get every unknown reliever who turns out to be a star but have they really even tried? The last guy they dealt for before he was great as a reliever was Strop. I'm not really counting Edwards in that as he was dealt as a developmental starter who was forced into the pen.
So that's why I find these sorts of trades frustrating. Prospects are meant to be traded. It's not about hoarding them. But you always have more than just 1 need. It also doesn't feel like they are doing enough to try and develop their own internal relievers.
Iceman2385
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Ur argument is sound, but i still disagree. The chapman trade I get, I wasn't a huge fan of it at the time. I like to think but don't know that we could have a still won by adding a less expensive bullpen piece. We won, so It's hard to argue against that deal now.
I dont think we gave anything extra for Avila, maybe he's the PTBNL at most? Candy, he's ok but I don't think he moves the needle that much on a future CCSP. He just lacks upside. Paredes I think ur falling too much in love with. Yea he has upside but also has a very low floor. He still has a lot of questions. First of all many believe he won't stick at SS, and he lacks power, granted many thought the same thing about Torress early on. But a 3rd basemen wout power not very exciting. My point is a lot of guys look like Torress at that age and don't pan out. To me he's still a lottery ticket.
Plus I think ur undervaluing RP in the playoffs. In the regular season I actually completely agree w u, but in the playoffs everything is magnified. The Dodgers and Nationals r tough and if we have a slight advantage in the BP that could easily be the difference! Selling prospects at the deadline is just the price you have to pay when ur team is contending. You must take advantage of the moment and our current chance to win! Our team is stacked and definitely think we should be going for it!
Still don't think we've done anything that drastically hurts r future. Still firmly believe we have a solid window of consistent contention. Great job thoyer! Now let's go back to back!
Iceman2385
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I guess we could be doing s better job acquiring good cheap unproven BP pieces. I think ur nitpicking there. Im guessing that isn't easy and isn't and probably shouldn't be one of our main priority in a contention window. We got strop when we were trade deadline sellers, those days r gone. I just don't think we gave up that much for Wilson, fair trade, good trade for us. Helps us this year and next w out damaging the future too much.