Trade deadline/rumors

[beckdawg]

I feels weird that I no longer have the lowest opinion of Baez here. I rather like his prospects going forward. My biggest thing was I didn't see him getting below 25% K rate and if he wasn't going to walk at a high rate it's hard to be a useful player with that kind of k rate. I feel justified in my belief that him making this change is rather unusual. But the thing is, he did it. Now, if he makes a few minor improvements in his walk rate that realistically may come like say something in the 6-7% range he's got a really chance to be perfectly fine largely because his power plays.

The only real gripe I have with him is that him taking 2-3 years to get there sorta hurts your control aspect on him but if you get say 3 or 4 years of what could be his prime, that's potentially a huge value. As of today if he were a full time player he'd probably be in the 4.5 fWAR range over a season and you could expect him to get better. He's hitting .273/.320/.454 on the season which isn't spectacular but that's largely because he hit .219/.254/.297 in may. In april he hit .310/.355/.483. In june he hit .292/.337/.562 and in July thus far he's hitting .294/.368/.441. Given he's obviously made changes to his swing, having one really bad month isn't a huge surprise. Cutting the 7-8% off his K rate has probably raised his average something like 7-10 points alone not to mention he's probably hitting better balls now and thus has a higher average because of that.

So, good on him. I'm never unhappy to be proven wrong by someone if it means the cubs are better off.

 

[beckdawg]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/padres-trade-drew-pomeranz-red-sox.html

Evan Drellich ‏@EvanDrellich 7m7 minutes ago
Source: Espinoza is going to the Padres as at least part of the trade for Drew Pomeranz.

 

[CSF77]

Looks like 1-1 trade. That may start the chips falling.

 

[CSF77]

I feels weird that I no longer have the lowest opinion of Baez here. I rather like his prospects going forward. My biggest thing was I didn't see him getting below 25% K rate and if he wasn't going to walk at a high rate it's hard to be a useful player with that kind of k rate. I feel justified in my belief that him making this change is rather unusual. But the thing is, he did it. Now, if he makes a few minor improvements in his walk rate that realistically may come like say something in the 6-7% range he's got a really chance to be perfectly fine largely because his power plays.

The only real gripe I have with him is that him taking 2-3 years to get there sorta hurts your control aspect on him but if you get say 3 or 4 years of what could be his prime, that's potentially a huge value. As of today if he were a full time player he'd probably be in the 4.5 fWAR range over a season and you could expect him to get better. He's hitting .273/.320/.454 on the season which isn't spectacular but that's largely because he hit .219/.254/.297 in may. In april he hit .310/.355/.483. In june he hit .292/.337/.562 and in July thus far he's hitting .294/.368/.441. Given he's obviously made changes to his swing, having one really bad month isn't a huge surprise. Cutting the 7-8% off his K rate has probably raised his average something like 7-10 points alone not to mention he's probably hitting better balls now and thus has a higher average because of that.

So, good on him. I'm never unhappy to be proven wrong by someone if it means the cubs are better off.

You could argue that the Cubs would be a better O with Baez at SS. But Baez's and Bryant's flexibility has made this year work.

Longer term I'm having a hard time buying Baez sticking around to back up when he is starter quality. So I can see him traded a some point to net a strong return.

 

[beckdawg]

You could argue that the Cubs would be a better O with Baez at SS. But Baez's and Bryant's flexibility has made this year work.

Longer term I'm having a hard time buying Baez sticking around to back up when he is starter quality. So I can see him traded a some point to net a strong return.

I think Russell is fine vs right handed pitching right now but lefties still crush him(.167/.300/.357). I think given Zobrist's age, Russell's struggles vs LHP and Bryant's ability to play OF that you can probably easily slot all 4 of them in for like 80% of games a week. I'm not entirely sure how that works when Schwarber is back but if Fowler isn't back you could probably also consider moving Bryant to RF and Heyward to CF in some games to sit Almora.

 

[CSF77]

Was saying down the road.

What I'm seeing is Contreras pretty much taking over as the starting catcher. Right now it is just Jake holding out and I can not see it being justified.

That causes left field to open up more than not. Out of the bench players you are looking at LaStella and Baez. LaStella has been good but not at a level that you bench Baez.

So this year, even when Fowler returns, I see Baez in 80% of the games. I doubt Fowler takes much time off after his vac. I wouldn't unless it was for injury prevention.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/padres-trade-drew-pomeranz-red-sox.html

Evan Drellich ‏@EvanDrellich 7m7 minutes ago
Source: Espinoza is going to the Padres as at least part of the trade for Drew Pomeranz.

Depending on who you listen to Espinoza is either the 14th or 30th ranked prospect in the game and he was the cost for a starter in Pomeranz that had really never shown much prior to this year? That's insane. I'm pretty sure the Cubs are going to stand pat.

 

[CSF77]

Depending on who you listen to Espinoza is either the 14th or 30th ranked prospect in the game and he was the cost for a starter in Pomeranz that had really never shown much prior to this year? That's insane. I'm pretty sure the Cubs are going to stand pat.

I can see them dealing with the Rays over Smyly. I could see them dealing Vogelbach and a arm. Something in the 20-30 range. Smyly is not killing it this year to say a Torres. Now Archer is another story and I would coincider Torres and what toss in they want.

 

[DanTown]

Depending on who you listen to Espinoza is either the 14th or 30th ranked prospect in the game and he was the cost for a starter in Pomeranz that had really never shown much prior to this year? That's insane. I'm pretty sure the Cubs are going to stand pat.

He's 18, if any team could accurately predict 18 year old arms, they'd win the WS every year. This will feel like a lot to give up but they're getting 2+ years of control on a guy who is a former top five pick who has been productive in his previous two years but not quite healthy.

I feel like this is a perfect trade for both sides: the Red Sox need Pomeranz now and get a high ceiling arm for 2+ years where as the Padres get a potential lottery ticket of an arm in Espinoza. But I also subscribe to the TNSTAAPP belief of young pitchers.

 

[beckdawg]

Depending on who you listen to Espinoza is either the 14th or 30th ranked prospect in the game and he was the cost for a starter in Pomeranz that had really never shown much prior to this year? That's insane. I'm pretty sure the Cubs are going to stand pat.

If he's all that ends up going over I don't think it's that insane. Obviously if he's truly a top 15 player then maybe it's more crazy but consider what we thought shark would get which was a top 50 guy and a top 100 guy. Is that all that much different than one top 30 guy? I think you can argue you'd rather have a top 25 guy than a top 50 and a top 75 combined but overall value seems similar. And ultimately, when you're talking pitching prospects there's always the who knows factor. Pomeranz is at the major league level and throwing well vs a guy who's a few years away and you don't know about health and or production yet.

I'd honestly say it's about what I expected he would yield. I mentioned previously in he thread I think if the cubs were talking him you'd be talking happ, torres or Jiminez as a starer which is roughly a similar value to Espinoza.

 

[TL1961]

I am with you.

two things tho
1) In the last 20 years Cubs MI's are extremely overvalued by their fans and sometimes management (Castro)
2) It seems this is the new price of pitching. There has been no correction to it since Miller so it wouldn't be an over sell at all.

As a Cub fan, I can't think of a Cub MI overvalued in last 20 years except for Castro. And my personal probable overvalue of Javy. Possibly.

Who else?

 

[SilenceS]

I feels weird that I no longer have the lowest opinion of Baez here. I rather like his prospects going forward. My biggest thing was I didn't see him getting below 25% K rate and if he wasn't going to walk at a high rate it's hard to be a useful player with that kind of k rate. I feel justified in my belief that him making this change is rather unusual. But the thing is, he did it. Now, if he makes a few minor improvements in his walk rate that realistically may come like say something in the 6-7% range he's got a really chance to be perfectly fine largely because his power plays.

The only real gripe I have with him is that him taking 2-3 years to get there sorta hurts your control aspect on him but if you get say 3 or 4 years of what could be his prime, that's potentially a huge value. As of today if he were a full time player he'd probably be in the 4.5 fWAR range over a season and you could expect him to get better. He's hitting .273/.320/.454 on the season which isn't spectacular but that's largely because he hit .219/.254/.297 in may. In april he hit .310/.355/.483. In june he hit .292/.337/.562 and in July thus far he's hitting .294/.368/.441. Given he's obviously made changes to his swing, having one really bad month isn't a huge surprise. Cutting the 7-8% off his K rate has probably raised his average something like 7-10 points alone not to mention he's probably hitting better balls now and thus has a higher average because of that.

So, good on him. I'm never unhappy to be proven wrong by someone if it means the cubs are better off.

This was our difference. I wasnt blindly loving him. I just watch him work. He works all day. He got put in his place at 21 and he didnt fold. He fought to be better. I just read a great fangraphs on him about his hitting out of the zone. His zone hits are great, but if he ever harbors that and gets better. Fangraphs and I believe he could be something special. I know thats a belief, but I have watched this kid fight the odds. He gets that somewhat in control. You are talking special, special. Right now, fangraphs have compared him to Jason Kipnis and Todd Frazier.

 

[beckdawg]

This was our difference. I wasnt blindly loving him. I just watch him work. He works all day. He got put in his place at 21 and he didnt fold. He fought to be better. I just read a great fangraphs on him about his hitting out of the zone. His zone hits are great, but if he ever harbors that and gets better. Fangraphs and I believe he could be something special. I know thats a belief, but I have watched this kid fight the odds. He gets that somewhat in control. You are talking special, special. Right now, fangraphs have compared him to Jason Kipnis and Todd Frazier.

Admittedly I've never been much of a scouting guy because I just don't have the knowledge on mechanics. So, I tend to fall back on numbers and I think given where Baez was I had decent reasons for my doubts. That and I did say I thought he could improve but I didn't imagine it would be this much because usually players are basically what they are when they reach the majors and those who do eventually improve like Baez has usually take 4-5 years(ie Jose Bautista).

So, chances are this will probably happen to me again in the future because numbers clearly aren't everything. However, I do like to view them as kind of a base on what a player can be. I tend to view scouting as the potential a player has but I think looking closer to the base is usually safer.

 

[brett05]

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/2016/jul/12/padres-pomeranz-drawing-trade-interest-rangers/


Said his value is less than Profar. I agree with that. SD would have to add to get him in return. So his market value is being defined.

One person commented on that. And it turns out that person was wrong.

 

[brett05]

Depending on who you listen to Espinoza is either the 14th or 30th ranked prospect in the game and he was the cost for a starter in Pomeranz that had really never shown much prior to this year? That's insane. I'm pretty sure the Cubs are going to stand pat.

That's the cost of pitching. All the Cubs need to do is get their offense to hit the good pitching and they'll be fine.

 

[brett05]

I can see them dealing with the Rays over Smyly. I could see them dealing Vogelbach and a arm. Something in the 20-30 range. Smyly is not killing it this year to say a Torres. Now Archer is another story and I would coincider Torres and what toss in they want.

And that's not enough from the Cubs side to give up to get what is being asked for.

 

[brett05]

As a Cub fan, I can't think of a Cub MI overvalued in last 20 years except for Castro. And my personal probable overvalue of Javy. Possibly.

Who else?

Augie Ojeda
Bobby Hill
Ronny Cedeno
Mark DeRosa
Ryan Theriot

In truth I thought the list was bigger.

 

[CSF77]

And that's not enough from the Cubs side to give up to get what is being asked for.

For Smyly or Archer? Smyly has not been dominate after his DH run in 2015. Even then he has never put up a 10 win + season. Highest IP in a season was 153.

So I'm not seeing this high leverage going on that justifies a top return. I see a guy that is 2-10 with a ERA at 5.50. He could end up in AAA at that rate.

Archer is suffering this season also. But he has shown more.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

That's the cost of pitching. All the Cubs need to do is get their offense to hit the good pitching and they'll be fine.

It is, but it's the cost because they're are teams making stupid moves. The Miller deal could go down as one of the worst in history and the Pomeranz deal is a terrible deal if Espinoza ever starts in the MLB, regardless of level of starter. Now I wanted Miller but only for surplus value. A trade centered around Soler, a risky player with huge upside, would have made sense, instead they got a potential superstar in Dansby Swanson which was one of the biggest overpays I've ever seen. Trades need to be about value. If you decide to trade a guy, say the Cubs decide to move Torres who's the same level of prospect as Espinoza, I hope they do it by trading him for value over need. Myabee you want a pitcher for him but instead you're offered a starting position player and a pitching prospect you like. That's a value proposition. When the Red Sox trade a Pomeranz, a guy with a lot of risk and only 2 years of control, for the #14 prospect in the game and a potential TOR starter you start a domino effect that may really hurt you down the road. As a GM I don't play that game.

 

[CSF77]

I see the Cubs packing Vogelbach and Soler in a deal and seeing what it brings back. So when Soler returns we will most likely see him show cased.