Trade deadline/rumors

[TC in Mississippi]

I see the Cubs packing Vogelbach and Soler in a deal and seeing what it brings back. So when Soler returns we will most likely see him show cased.

I agree, but I don't see them traded if the value is not there. The key is how they value those guys.

 

[CSF77]

I agree, but I don't see them traded if the value is not there. The key is how they value those guys.

If those 2 = Smyly I believe Smyly has enough potential to justify the deal. Just right now his value is at a all time low where that deal could go through.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

If those 2 = Smyly I believe Smyly has enough potential to justify the deal. Just right now his value is at a all time low where that deal could go through.

I'd likely make that deal. The value and risk balance fairly well, even though I don't love Smyly.

 

[brett05]

It is, but it's the cost because they're are teams making stupid moves. The Miller deal could go down as one of the worst in history and the Pomeranz deal is a terrible deal if Espinoza ever starts in the MLB, regardless of level of starter. Now I wanted Miller but only for surplus value. A trade centered around Soler, a risky player with huge upside, would have made sense, instead they got a potential superstar in Dansby Swanson which was one of the biggest overpays I've ever seen. Trades need to be about value. If you decide to trade a guy, say the Cubs decide to move Torres who's the same level of prospect as Espinoza, I hope they do it by trading him for value over need. Myabee you want a pitcher for him but instead you're offered a starting position player and a pitching prospect you like. That's a value proposition. When the Red Sox trade a Pomeranz, a guy with a lot of risk and only 2 years of control, for the #14 prospect in the game and a potential TOR starter you start a domino effect that may really hurt you down the road. As a GM I don't play that game.

Then you maybe making no moves and relying heavily on drafting/fa. And that is fine. But it seems clear that while power and ob guys are rare, pitching still rules the rooftop so to speak.

 

[DanTown]

Then you maybe making no moves and relying heavily on drafting/fa. And that is fine. But it seems clear that while power and ob guys are rare, pitching still rules the rooftop so to speak.

Pitching has and always will be expensive. The question is will it be so expensive that teams have to trade what Arizona gave up to get a pitcher as mundane as Shelby Miller.

And bad deals don't usually set a new market long term because the other 28 teams realize what the true cost of pitching is.

 

[CSF77]

Depends on the market. Right now quality starting pitching is scarce. That inflates it's value. But not to a point where you pay a blue chip for a train wreck.

 

[CSF77]

It should be interesting how much Rich Hill goes for now. He has to be in that 25-50 prospect value area right now.

 

[beckdawg]

It should be interesting how much Rich Hill goes for now. He has to be in that 25-50 prospect value area right now.

Doubtful. The reason Pomeranz went for what he did was for 2 reasons really, age and control. If i were to place a value on hill it would be something like 1 top 100 guy and a fringey top 100 guy. I don't agree the cubs will trade for him personally but to put that into cubs terms like McKinney and one of Candelario/Vogelbach types.

 

[brett05]

Pitching has and always will be expensive. The question is will it be so expensive that teams have to trade what Arizona gave up to get a pitcher as mundane as Shelby Miller.

And bad deals don't usually set a new market long term because the other 28 teams realize what the true cost of pitching is.

Yet, it kinda has set the market. Kimbrel, Pom as two additional examples.

 

[brett05]

Depends on the market. Right now quality starting pitching is scarce. That inflates it's value. But not to a point where you pay a blue chip for a train wreck.

True, but no trainwrecks got traded.

 

[brett05]

Doubtful. The reason Pomeranz went for what he did was for 2 reasons really, age and control. If i were to place a value on hill it would be something like 1 top 100 guy and a fringey top 100 guy. I don't agree the cubs will trade for him personally but to put that into cubs terms like McKinney and one of Candelario/Vogelbach types.

Hill will garner more. That said, hard to tell with Beane. He values things differently.

 

[beckdawg]

Hill will garner more. That said, hard to tell with Beane. He values things differently.

I could see Beane getting similar overall value but Espinoza is basically a top 20 prospect. They aren't getting that plus substantially more for Hill who's 36 and a FA after the season.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Hill will garner more. That said, hard to tell with Beane. He values things differently.

He's not getting the equivalent of the 2nd or 3rd best pitching prospect (depending on the source) in the game for Hill. He's a 36 year old rental and whatever it is he's found in his dotage can disappear just as quickly as it emerged.

 

[CSF77]

I would expect a Hendricks/Valenueva type return. The siruation is similar.

 

[CSF77]

Theo suggested he will look to add a arm and a bench bat.

 

[DanTown]

If the Cubs do a deal of a rental bat + bullpen arm, they can set up their roster the rest of the way fairly easily with Warren/Hammel as a alternating starter/long guy to save Jason and develop Adam's stuff.

13 hitters, 12 pitchers.

H - Contreras, Ross, Montero, Rizzo, LaStella, Baez, Russell, Zobrist, Bryant, Heward, Rental, Szczur, Fowler
P - Arrieta, Lester, Lackey, Hendricks, Hammel (starter), Warren (starter), Wood, Strop, Edwards, Nathan/Cahill, Bullpen Arm, Rondon

That would mean that off the 25 man you can look to use Soler, Almora, Grimm and easily replace them.

The best fits for what the Cubs would want are

1. Beltran/Miller or Chapman or Betances
2. Reddick/Rzepczynski or Dolittle

 

[beckdawg]

I don't have a well thought out idea of how to make it happen but I'd really like the cubs to find a way to acquire Daniel Norris from the tigers.

 

[chibears55]

@Ken_Rosenthal: Just reported on @FS1: #Yankees will trade potential FAs Chapman, Beltran if things don't turn. Drawing interest in multiple SPs. Link soon.

Beltran and Chapman would be a couple of rentals I wouldn't mind having to bolster their World Series chances this year

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[CSF77]

@Ken_Rosenthal: Just reported on @FS1: #Yankees will trade potential FAs Chapman, Beltran if things don't turn. Drawing interest in multiple SPs. Link soon.

Beltran and Chapman would be a couple of rentals I wouldn't mind having to bolster their World Series chances this year

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Well Beltrain would be your starting LF with Contreras starting C.

Something like:

Fowler CF
Beltrain LF
Bryant 3B
Rizzo 1B
Zobrist 2B
Contreras C
Heyward RF
Russell SS

Youbwould have to deal out Soler MLB, Vogelbach AAA. After that you would have to add Tores.

I do not mind losing Tores at all. Russell and Baez are both young and highly talented. If trading Tores pushes that line up every day with Chapman in the pen. Developing him paid off

 

[SilenceS]

Why? Why would the Cubs sell young cost controlled talent for old talent?