Trade deadline/rumors

[brett05]

Probably a good guess honestly. People seem to view him more as the Zobrist long term replacement. I view Torres/Baez in that light personally. He's old enough and good enough of a hitter to be dealt soon.

And gosh darn it, people like him.

 

[CSF77]

Torres is maybe half a year behind Happ in terms of development and he's just as qualified to be a lead off hitter eventually as Happ is. He stole 22 bases last year and 9.8% walk rate which in theory is lower than it would actually be if he were age appropriate for leagues similar to Happ. On his career he's a .282/.355/.401 hitter. Happ on his career is .285/.380/.471. So sure, thus far Happ's shown to be a better hitter but he's also 21 to Torres' 19. On top of matters, Torres also would be a better 2B candidate defensively.

That's not a shot at Happ at all because he's obviously a quality prospect. But he's going to be 22 next year and likely in AAA. Even if you wait the full 2 years like I suggested and make him 23 where's he playing? Heyward may or may not stick around. Almora is probably in CF. Schwarber is probably in LF. Bryant's at 3B so unless you're planning on dealing Baez he's going to see more time at 2B than a rookie Happ and you're not just going to burn service time sitting him on the bench. And obviously Zobrist is likely to still be around.

On the contrary, you're not in anywhere near as much of a hurry with Torres. There's a good chance next year at 20 he could struggle in AA because let's be realistic, how many 20 year olds hit well in in AA or for that matter, how many are even in AA at 20? The average age of the southern league is 24 for batters right now. Almora hit .234/.250/.355 at age 20 in AA. Baez obviously hit much better at .294/.346/.638 but you began to see his k rate issues rise and obviously he was more of a bat first guy than Almora. Russell hit decently at .294/.332/.536 but his walk rate really suffered at 4.4% compared to the player he is. Looking it up in 2016 right now there are 3 sub 21 year olds(Ozzie Albies, Willy Adames, and Jake Bauers). Last year there were 3 also(Bauers, McKinney and Olando Arcia). 2014 there were 4(Russell, Ketel Marte, Jose Peraza and Corey Seager). 2013 there were 3(Baez, Ronald Torreyes and Yorman Rodriguez). And in 2012 there were 2(Chris Owings and Christian Bethancourt).

Since Torres is so young and playing so well you can give him the time they didn't quite see fit to with Russell. Russell is obviously a stud defensively but it's pretty obvious another year or so in AAA wouldn't have hurt him. They called him up early because Alcantara wasn't getting the job done and there really wasn't a lot of options. In the case of Torres, even if Zobrist suddenly turns to shit next year, you still have Baez. Even if you give him a full 3 more years in the minors he's only 22. 3 more years in the minors for Happ makes him 24 which is basically the cut off range of being a prospect.

Happ should start in AAA next year and I expect a call up.

If I had to predict they start with Almora in CF then mid season they promote Happ to keep Zo fresh. The team has no lead off on it outside of Zo post Fowler. I don't see them doing this all season.

Torres will be in AA next year. I doubt they rush him. I would expect 2019 to be his eta.

 

[SilenceS]

“From a baseball perspective, of course you don’t trade a potential 40-homer-a-year guy for two-and-a-half years of a one-inning relief pitcher,” Passan said during an interview on the Spiegel and Goff Show on Monday. “I don’t care if that relief pitcher is the best in baseball. You just don’t do that. It’s just not a smart thing to do, and the Cubs have proven as they’ve built this team that they do smart things.

“The one argument in favor of it though, the one thing that piqued my attention was when somebody told me the Cubs will be worth a billion dollars more if they win a World Series. Billion with a ‘B.’ And that’s the kind of thing that stands out to you, because right now the Cubs are worth $2.2 billion, according to Forbes. If they gain another billion dollars, they’re almost every bit as much as the New York Yankees.

“We are sometimes so myopic, we end up looking not just short-term gains but at just the baseball perspective. And we have to understand what happens on the field is these days is a microcosm of what’s happening off the field.

“All this is just part of a bigger business. And the business of baseball is a $10-billion-a-year industry.

“If the Chicago Cubs can get a bigger and bigger piece of that by trading one player for another player, in the baseball world, it seems like a monumental, nuclear deal,” Passan said. “But from a business perspective, if you can give up a guy who’s going to be worth — let’s say hypothetically, Kyle Schwarber up and through free agency is worth 20 wins total and a marginal win above replacement is $7 million, $7.5 million, we’re talking about Kyle Schwarber being worth $150 million. If you’re telling me you can trade $150 million to go out and potentially make a billion, you then start calculating like you do it in poker. What are the odds of this?

“There is zero baseball argument in favor of trading Kyle Schwarber for Andrew Miller. There is a marginal argument for trading Kyle Schwarber for Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman.”

http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2016/07...bs-end-for-kyle-schwarber-andrew-miller-swap/

 

[beckdawg]

“From a baseball perspective, of course you don’t trade a potential 40-homer-a-year guy for two-and-a-half years of a one-inning relief pitcher,” Passan said during an interview on the Spiegel and Goff Show on Monday. “I don’t care if that relief pitcher is the best in baseball. You just don’t do that. It’s just not a smart thing to do, and the Cubs have proven as they’ve built this team that they do smart things.

“The one argument in favor of it though, the one thing that piqued my attention was when somebody told me the Cubs will be worth a billion dollars more if they win a World Series. Billion with a ‘B.’ And that’s the kind of thing that stands out to you, because right now the Cubs are worth $2.2 billion, according to Forbes. If they gain another billion dollars, they’re almost every bit as much as the New York Yankees.

“We are sometimes so myopic, we end up looking not just short-term gains but at just the baseball perspective. And we have to understand what happens on the field is these days is a microcosm of what’s happening off the field.

“All this is just part of a bigger business. And the business of baseball is a $10-billion-a-year industry.

“If the Chicago Cubs can get a bigger and bigger piece of that by trading one player for another player, in the baseball world, it seems like a monumental, nuclear deal,” Passan said. “But from a business perspective, if you can give up a guy who’s going to be worth — let’s say hypothetically, Kyle Schwarber up and through free agency is worth 20 wins total and a marginal win above replacement is $7 million, $7.5 million, we’re talking about Kyle Schwarber being worth $150 million. If you’re telling me you can trade $150 million to go out and potentially make a billion, you then start calculating like you do it in poker. What are the odds of this?

“There is zero baseball argument in favor of trading Kyle Schwarber for Andrew Miller. There is a marginal argument for trading Kyle Schwarber for Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman.”

http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2016/07...bs-end-for-kyle-schwarber-andrew-miller-swap/

That logic makes no sense to me. Get you're just passing on the info but he starts the column saying no team trades a great hitter prospect for a reliever, it's just not done. And then they break into here's why you should do that? Making business decisions over baseball decisions is the entire reason the cubs were in such a sorry state in the lead up to Theo being hired. The previous ownership saw that same idea of value and tried to make a play for it to sell the team and look how that turned out.

 

[SilenceS]

That logic makes no sense to me. Get you're just passing on the info but he starts the column saying no team trades a great hitter prospect for a reliever, it's just not done. And then they break into here's why you should do that? Making business decisions over baseball decisions is the entire reason the cubs were in such a sorry state in the lead up to Theo being hired. The previous ownership saw that same idea of value and tried to make a play for it to sell the team and look how that turned out.

His whole point was if the move is made it is a business move.

 

[beckdawg]

Happ should start in AAA next year and I expect a call up.

If I had to predict they start with Almora in CF then mid season they promote Happ to keep Zo fresh. The team has no lead off on it outside of Zo post Fowler. I don't see them doing this all season.

Torres will be in AA next year. I doubt they rush him. I would expect 2019 to be his eta.

Heyward can bat lead off. Whether or not he wants to is another story. Additionally, the cubs have been putting Baez there recently. He's not your prototypical lead off hitter given his lack of walks but he's played well when there and he does have the speed you typically want at the top of the order. Russell would also be ideal if he could figure out lefties. He's hitting .264/.330/.415 on his career vs RHP but only .173/.271/.332 vs LHP.

 

[CSF77]

Heyward can bat lead off. Whether or not he wants to is another story. Additionally, the cubs have been putting Baez there recently. He's not your prototypical lead off hitter given his lack of walks but he's played well when there and he does have the speed you typically want at the top of the order. Russell would also be ideal if he could figure out lefties. He's hitting .264/.330/.415 on his career vs RHP but only .173/.271/.332 vs LHP.

I believe a lead off needs to have a OBA pushing .400

 

[beckdawg]

I believe a lead off needs to have a OBA pushing .400

There's 22 players in the league who have over .375 OBP and a large majority of them are heart of the order hitters.

 

[CSF77]

Heyward has a career .350. Border line. Rizzo and Fowler are the best near or over .400. Zo sits around .380. That is why he is the #1 choice. Bryant is right there also which justifies him hitting #2.

Russell has not shown anything. Nothing that even entertains the thought. Baez same thing.

It would be pointless to trade Happ. .394 this year.

Torres .356

I could see Happ CF Torres 2B in 3 years. I'm doubting that Almora is a long term option. His D is stellar but his OBA is not.

 

[beckdawg]

Heyward has a career .350. Border line. Rizzo and Fowler are the best near or over .400. Zo sits around .380. That is why he is the #1 choice. Bryant is right there also which justifies him hitting #2.

Russell has not shown anything. Nothing that even entertains the thought. Baez same thing.

It would be pointless to trade Happ. .394 this year.

Torres .356

I could see Happ CF Torres 2B in 3 years. I'm doubting that Almora is a long term option. His D is stellar but his OBA is not.

Fowler is a career .365 OBP. Zobrist is .357. Suggesting Heyward is "borderline" at .350 is being pretty loose with your definition. Additionally, there's a reason Happ isn't playing CF right now. It's because he's not a CF. You don't move someone from CF to 2B on a whim. He'd be far more valuable as a CF. The fact he's at 2B tells you the cubs and likely the rest of MLB doesn't view him as capable of playing that position. If he's an OF he's going to be a corner guy. The reason they are trying him at 2B now is because a 2B with his skill set has more value than a corner OF with his skill set.

Also, you're assuming that Happ can hit lead off at the major league level without him having played a single game in the majors. He has hit .283/.378/.468 in the minors. Addison Russell hit .301/.377/.520. Javier Baez hit .287/.346/.541. And yet you're not even "entertaining the thought." I'd almost guarantee that Maddon wouldn't bat a rookie lead off anyways because it's a ton of pressure on a guy with little experience. Knowing him, I think you'd be far more likely to see something like Heyward in CF, Bryant in RF, Baez at 3B and La Stella batting lead off at 2B assuming Fowler is gone and they don't want Almora in the line up.

Edit the La Stella thing also assumes Zobrist isn't playing at that time.

 

[SilenceS]

There's 22 players in the league who have over .375 OBP and a large majority of them are heart of the order hitters.

Heyward has a career .350. Border line. Rizzo and Fowler are the best near or over .400. Zo sits around .380. That is why he is the #1 choice. Bryant is right there also which justifies him hitting #2.

Russell has not shown anything. Nothing that even entertains the thought. Baez same thing.

It would be pointless to trade Happ. .394 this year.

Torres .356

I could see Happ CF Torres 2B in 3 years. I'm doubting that Almora is a long term option. His D is stellar but his OBA is not.

Javier Baez has hit .326 with a .380 OBP in 14 July games.

Javier Baez has scored or driven in a run in 15 of his last 18 games with an AB. Batting .357 (20-for-56) with 4 2B, 2 HRs in past 16 games.

Just to add on, Baez has had a .337 or better OBP in every month but May and over an .800 OPS in every month but May.

 

[beckdawg]

Javier Baez has hit .326 with a .380 OBP in 14 July games.

Javier Baez has scored or driven in a run in 15 of his last 18 games with an AB. Batting .357 (20-for-56) with 4 2B, 2 HRs in past 16 games.

Just to add on, Baez has had a .337 or better OBP in every month but May and over an .800 OPS in every month but May.

I honestly feel like them batting him in front of Bryant now that he's sorta figured out some of his swing issues is a good thing cuz you damn sure don't want to walk him in front of Bryant. So, he's probably getting better pitches to hit where as if they bat him like 5th or 6th you just pitch around him.

 

[SilenceS]

I honestly feel like them batting him in front of Bryant now that he's sorta figured out some of his swing issues is a good thing cuz you damn sure don't want to walk him in front of Bryant. So, he's probably getting better pitches to hit where as if they bat him like 5th or 6th you just pitch around him.

I heard Maddon talk about it. He says he likes his energy up there. He said he likes to get him pumped up, but not super pumped because thats when he swings out of his shoes. I think they are trying to teach him that edge where he is aggressive, but to control it.

 

[CSF77]

Fowler is a career .365 OBP. Zobrist is .357. Suggesting Heyward is "borderline" at .350 is being pretty loose with your definition. Additionally, there's a reason Happ isn't playing CF right now. It's because he's not a CF. You don't move someone from CF to 2B on a whim. He'd be far more valuable as a CF. The fact he's at 2B tells you the cubs and likely the rest of MLB doesn't view him as capable of playing that position. If he's an OF he's going to be a corner guy. The reason they are trying him at 2B now is because a 2B with his skill set has more value than a corner OF with his skill set.

Also, you're assuming that Happ can hit lead off at the major league level without him having played a single game in the majors. He has hit .283/.378/.468 in the minors. Addison Russell hit .301/.377/.520. Javier Baez hit .287/.346/.541. And yet you're not even "entertaining the thought." I'd almost guarantee that Maddon wouldn't bat a rookie lead off anyways because it's a ton of pressure on a guy with little experience. Knowing him, I think you'd be far more likely to see something like Heyward in CF, Bryant in RF, Baez at 3B and La Stella batting lead off at 2B assuming Fowler is gone and they don't want Almora in the line up.

Edit the La Stella thing also assumes Zobrist isn't playing at that time.

Thought the reason was due to signing Zobrist.

Add to it I said 3 years. I expect him on the team next. I don't expect a long transition.

LaStella is ok situationally. Not full time.


On Baez: you can't just pick a few weeks and say... On him. He has been a streaky hitter sense day 1. You have to look at the body of work.

I believe him being plugged in vs a every day guy have benifits him. That is why he is a energy guy.

I'm fine with a start here or there leading off but not every day.

 

[beckdawg]

From cubs den

Cubs (and Yankees) Notes

MLB.com's Bryan Hoch writes that the Cubs are interested in Chapman, who last night threw the five fastest pitches ever recorded by StatCast including one at 105.1 MPH. Hoch though goes on to try and connect the Yankees to Schwarber in a potential deal so we're just going to move along now.

More realistically, ESPN New York's Andrew Marchand Tweeted yesterday that the Yankees could target Iowa Cubs 1B/DH Dan Vogelbach in trades for Miller or Chapman. Vogelbach would likely be a secondary piece in a deal for Miller (and probably Chapman too), but according to Marchand, at least one Yankee scout believe Vogelbach is better than current Yankee prospect (ish) 1B/DH Greg Bird.

Jon Heyman Tweets that the Yankees are not close to any deals, but according to reports, the Cubs proposals for Miller or Chapman are said to not be among the best.

Buster Olney reaffirms today that the Yankees are continuing to insist on Schwarber in any trade talks for Miller and the Cubs are still unwilling to include him.

The Indians are looking for a pitching upgrade and have made Miller their top target according to Ken Rosenthal. The Tribe are said to prefer Miller to Chapman due to his willingness to set up. Cleveland is said to be focusing on a left-handed reliever since their rotation is entirely right-handed.

Ken Rosenthal writes that Chapman is the Nationals most likely target given his past history with Washington manager Dusty Baker on the Reds. Rosenthal mentions top prospect SP Lucas Giolito as being less untouchable as he once was but probably isn't a possibility if Washington chooses to pursue Miller instead. Yankee scouts were seen heavily scouting Washington's AAA team in Syracuse before heading to D.C. to scout the major league team.

Olney Tweets that the Yankees are exploring deals for Chapman, with the Nationals, Indians and Rangers among the teams involved.

Now this sorta makes sense to me if you assume the character issues aren't actually issues with Chapman. It might be a difficult fit if one of the two between him and Rondon isn't comfortable taking a back seat. But if the starting price is Vogelbach + parts for Chapman that deal makes sense to me. Vogelbach isn't going to be on the cubs roster with his lack of defensive flexibility and Rizzo and at this point he hits AAA too well to stay their forever.

With that being said, I still you need someone else to get lefties out. Rondon and Chapman at those prices is a great 1-2 in the 8th 9th and strop in the 7th would also be strong but with Nathan, Grimm, Edwards Cahill and Waren all options for the pen you're still pretty right hand heavy.

 

[SilenceS]

Thought the reason was due to signing Zobrist.

Add to it I said 3 years. I expect him on the team next. I don't expect a long transition.

LaStella is ok situationally. Not full time.


On Baez: you can't just pick a few weeks and say... On him. He has been a streaky hitter sense day 1. You have to look at the body of work.

I believe him being plugged in vs a every day guy have benifits him. That is why he is a energy guy.

I'm fine with a start here or there leading off but not every day.

No one is picking and choosing a couple of weeks. He has had one bad month. He has been really good for awhile and Maddon liked him up there. Also, he hasnt just been plugged in much. He has pretty much been a starter since Soler went down. He has excelled in his more full time role. But, is he going to stay leadoff? No, that is Fowlers when he comes back next week. Next year, all kind of stuff could shake out. Baez could be our CF for all we know.

 

[beckdawg]

Also another mention I saw that was interesting... Peter Gammons tweeted he'd like to see Clay Buchholz reincarnate his career with the Cubs, Marlins or Dodgers. He's on the older side and making decent money(almost 32 and a $13.5 mil option next year). But he would make for an interesting piece if the buy in price was really low.

 

[beckdawg]

No one is picking and choosing a couple of weeks. He has had one bad month. He has been really good for awhile and Maddon liked him up there. Also, he hasnt just been plugged in much. He has pretty much been a starter since Soler went down. He has excelled in his more full time role. But, is he going to stay leadoff? No, that is Fowlers when he comes back next week. Next year, all kind of stuff could shake out. Baez could be our CF for all we know.

To follow up this point, Baez if need be could lead off for a year or two until someone like Torres is ready if they were to deal Happ. Ultimately it's nice to take care of every piece of the roster but that's not usually how things work out. It's hard to make all the pieces fit.

 

[chibears55]

I heard Maddon talk about it. He says he likes his energy up there. He said he likes to get him pumped up, but not super pumped because thats when he swings out of his shoes. I think they are trying to teach him that edge where he is aggressive, but to control it.

A future Soriano ?

Sent from my LG-V495 using Tapatalk

 

[chibears55]

Seems like Epstein prefers Miller but unless the yanks come off the Schwarber price, not happening..
Chapman then becomes Epstein 2nd choice, which he might be trying to get them to take a package with vogelbach and other players from minors..

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