Trade deadline/rumors

[beckdawg]

I had a longer post than this typed up but I mean I'm not sure it's worth the effort. But I liked this bit so I'll say it. In 38.2 IP vs left handed batters, Peralta, Ramirez, Warren, Grimm and Strop gave up 37 runs of which 36 were ER for an 8.38 ERA. The difference between that and say a mediocre LH specialist with a 3.50 ERA is 15 more runs which would drop their overall reliever ERA from 3.83 overall to 3.34 which would be 7th best in the league.

Long story short, this belief that the cubs bullpen was bad to begin with is just unfounded. They were particularly bad at getting left handed batters out. If my math is right the cubs bullpen has thrown 172.2 innings vs RH and given up 66 runs or has a 3.44 ERA. Against LH, 108 IP and given up 53 runs or a 4.41 ERA. Those 5 guys above gave up 36 of the 53 runs meaning the rest of the cubs relievers had a 2.20 ERA vs LH. Other than Strop and Grimm, you're probably not going to see those guys on the playoff roster and now that they have Montgomery who is particularly decent at pitching to LH batters a lot of that blow is lessened.

So when I say I don't really see Chapman having that big of an impact, that's why. To start with he's going to close most likely and most of those innings that killed the cubs vs LH batters occurred in the 6th and 7th innings. Rondon/Chapman pitching instead of Strop in the 8th might help some but his .278 wOBA isn't actually that terrible against LH despite his 4.76 ERA vs LH this season. As an example, Lackey's wOBA vs LH is .297 and his ERA is 3.51 vs them. I just honestly believe if the cubs roll the dice with what they have now the difference wont be that noticeable assuming Montgomery is as advertised against LH. And even if he isn't, Matusz has pitched well and historically is quite tough vs LH batters.

 

[beckdawg]

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 32m32 minutes ago
Updating: Per @Joelsherman1, #Cubs-#Yankees trade, if completed, would be Chapman for Torres, Warren and likely two others.

... I just don't get that frankly for the upgrade he provides. Like if you're willing to give that up for Chapman why wouldn't you instead throw a godfather offer at the Sox for Sale? If you're willing to give up Torres anyways, something like Torres, Warren, the two unnamed prospect, Soler and someone surely would be conceivably enough to get the talks started. Even if you end up paying that plus say Happ I think you come out on top value wise vs this reported Chapman deal.

 

[brett05]

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 32m32 minutes ago
Updating: Per @Joelsherman1, #Cubs-#Yankees trade, if completed, would be Chapman for Torres, Warren and likely two others.

... I just don't get that frankly for the upgrade he provides. Like if you're willing to give that up for Chapman why wouldn't you instead throw a godfather offer at the Sox for Sale? If you're willing to give up Torres anyways, something like Torres, Warren, the two unnamed prospect, Soler and someone surely would be conceivably enough to get the talks started. Even if you end up paying that plus say Happ I think you come out on top value wise vs this reported Chapman deal.

Warren and two unnamed specs wouldn;t get the conversation going. Torres and Soler as the two secondary pieces for Sale probably does.

 

[beckdawg]

Warren and two unnamed specs wouldn;t get the conversation going. Torres and Soler as the two secondary pieces for Sale probably does.

Sahadev Sharma @sahadevsharma
Along with Warren and Torres, hearing Billy McKinney and one other going to the Yankees.

I mean that's now the #24 prospect(according to mlb.com), the #75 prospect, and Warren who's been a decent #4/5 starter int he past. If you toss in Soler who was I believe top 30 at one point and Happ, that's 4-ish because of Soler top 100 prospects with 2 in Soler and Torres having huge upside.

 

[TL1961]

Now reading that McKinney is also involved. Torres, McKinney, Warren and more.

We should be getting back Chapman, with an extension in hand, and more. But that does not appear to be the case.

BUT...at the end of the day......Cubs have a shut down closer, another lefty to get those LH batters out in earlier innings, plus Rondon, Strop, Edwards, Wood....and who knows what we get from Nathan?

That is a really tough looking bullpen compared to the one two weeks ago.

It's a very high price to pay - Torres will be good for a long time. But we have young talent at SS, plenty of OF's, and won't miss Warren (who I was optimistic about). It's not blowing up the farm or mortgaging the future. It's a higher price than I would like. (Hell, Torres alone is high.) But look at what we have, not what we don't have.

Good offense, good defense, good starting pitching, and now a VERY tough bullpen that shortens games.

All the twisting of stats doesn't change that our pen was giving up a lot of runs, not keeping us in games and blowing saves. Rondon blew 4 of his last 10, yet people here insist Chapman is not an upgrade - or that he will be an 8th inning guy, which is laughable.

 

[TL1961]

Sahadev Sharma @sahadevsharma
Along with Warren and Torres, hearing Billy McKinney and one other going to the Yankees.

I mean that's now the #24 prospect(according to mlb.com), the #75 prospect, and Warren who's been a decent #4/5 starter int he past. If you toss in Soler who was I believe top 30 at one point and Happ, that's 4-ish because of Soler top 100 prospects with 2 in Soler and Torres having huge upside.

Why are you speculating Soler and Happ? They're not part of this.

 

[brett05]

Sahadev Sharma @sahadevsharma
Along with Warren and Torres, hearing Billy McKinney and one other going to the Yankees.

I mean that's now the #24 prospect(according to mlb.com), the #75 prospect, and Warren who's been a decent #4/5 starter int he past. If you toss in Soler who was I believe top 30 at one point and Happ, that's 4-ish because of Soler top 100 prospects with 2 in Soler and Torres having huge upside.

Soler, Happ, Torres is getting there. No need for Warren or McKinney. Team has that already if not better.

 

[brett05]

Why are you speculating Soler and Happ? They're not part of this.

If it were to be for Sale is what beckdawg stated a few posts earlier

 

[TL1961]

I had a longer post than this typed up but I mean I'm not sure it's worth the effort. But I liked this bit so I'll say it. In 38.2 IP vs left handed batters, Peralta, Ramirez, Warren, Grimm and Strop gave up 37 runs of which 36 were ER for an 8.38 ERA. The difference between that and say a mediocre LH specialist with a 3.50 ERA is 15 more runs which would drop their overall reliever ERA from 3.83 overall to 3.34 which would be 7th best in the league.

Long story short, this belief that the cubs bullpen was bad to begin with is just unfounded. They were particularly bad at getting left handed batters out. If my math is right the cubs bullpen has thrown 172.2 innings vs RH and given up 66 runs or has a 3.44 ERA. Against LH, 108 IP and given up 53 runs or a 4.41 ERA. Those 5 guys above gave up 36 of the 53 runs meaning the rest of the cubs relievers had a 2.20 ERA vs LH. Other than Strop and Grimm, you're probably not going to see those guys on the playoff roster and now that they have Montgomery who is particularly decent at pitching to LH batters a lot of that blow is lessened.

So when I say I don't really see Chapman having that big of an impact, that's why. To start with he's going to close most likely and most of those innings that killed the cubs vs LH batters occurred in the 6th and 7th innings. Rondon/Chapman pitching instead of Strop in the 8th might help some but his .278 wOBA isn't actually that terrible against LH despite his 4.76 ERA vs LH this season. As an example, Lackey's wOBA vs LH is .297 and his ERA is 3.51 vs them. I just honestly believe if the cubs roll the dice with what they have now the difference wont be that noticeable assuming Montgomery is as advertised against LH. And even if he isn't, Matusz has pitched well and historically is quite tough vs LH batters.

He could have an enormous impact.

Think playoffs. NO WAY can we say heading to the playoffs with the pen we had last week would we feel comfortable.

With Montgomery and Chapman added, absolutely we can. If this goes through, we paid dearly for bullpen upgrades, but we didn't half-ass it.

We just better get leads in the postseason to make this pay off.

 

[TL1961]

If it were to be for Sale is what beckdawg stated a few posts earlier

Oh....I see.

Sox want 5 to 7 prospects for Sale. Since that almost never happens, they will get far, far less than what is rumored.

Frankly, Torres, McKinney, Warren and another should be enough to get him - without Soler or Happ or anyone else.When all said and done, they'll get some good young prospects. But Mr. Hissy Fit isn't bringing back what the Sox think.

 

[TL1961]

I see a couple people tweeting that it will be Chapman only, but I just think something else needs to be coming our way. (Like beltran! )

 

[brett05]

Oh....I see.

Sox want 5 to 7 prospects for Sale. Since that almost never happens, they will get far, far less than what is rumored.

Frankly, Torres, McKinney, Warren and another should be enough to get him - without Soler or Happ or anyone else.When all said and done, they'll get some good young prospects. But Mr. Hissy Fit isn't bringing back what the Sox think.

You are right it rarely happens unless you are that type of special talent with youth, control, and friendly dollars. Hey Look. It's Chris Sale. Yes, he'll bring in a load.

McKinney and Warren wouldn't make the White Sox. So you are saying Torres and another lesser spec than Warren should be enough for Chris Sale. Correct me if I am wrong but you've admitted to not following the AL or really anyone besides the Cubs. It shows by your offer. That offer gets you Rodon. Not Chris Sale.

 

[JoJoBoxer]

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 32m32 minutes ago
Updating: Per @Joelsherman1, #Cubs-#Yankees trade, if completed, would be Chapman for Torres, Warren and likely two others.

... I just don't get that frankly for the upgrade he provides. Like if you're willing to give that up for Chapman why wouldn't you instead throw a godfather offer at the Sox for Sale? If you're willing to give up Torres anyways, something like Torres, Warren, the two unnamed prospect, Soler and someone surely would be conceivably enough to get the talks started. Even if you end up paying that plus say Happ I think you come out on top value wise vs this reported Chapman deal.

I was thinking the same thing.

Sale would take pressure off of Arrieta as THE ace.
It would allow for a 6 man rotation till the end of the season, keeping the starters fresh.
Come playoff time, the Cubs would have a scary 4 man starting rotation with 2 starters as backups.

 

[DanTown]

This feels like an ownership move, hence why the price is going so high. I know there is nothing to really speculate on that but I cannot imagine Theo would give up multiple top 5 organization/top 100 overall prospects for three+ months of Chapman when probably one of those guys could have had Chapman six months ago. One of the reasons Theo left Boston was the ownership group started getting involved too much in signings (i.e Carl Crawford) so Theo wanted to go somewhere where his vision could be built. Up until this point, the Cubs have never wavered on their belief of trading to either help today or help the future but never selling tomorrow to buy today. Theo would know that while Chapman is an upgrade, the cost of getting him for only one year (with no extension) would make any deal for Chapman incredibly risk in terms of changing the probability the team wins.

I'd do something like Torres, McKinney, and Warren for Chapman resigned or take McKinney out if he doesn't resign. But boy does this feel like an ownership panic move.

I mean we all balked at Schwarber for Miller but at least with that deal, you'd be getting two+ years of Miller. I mean which would you rather have

Schwarber
Chapman

or

Miller
Torres
McKinney
Warren
Other Guy in the deal

 

[JoJoBoxer]

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 32m32 minutes ago
Updating: Per @Joelsherman1, #Cubs-#Yankees trade, if completed, would be Chapman for Torres, Warren and likely two others.

... I just don't get that frankly for the upgrade he provides. Like if you're willing to give that up for Chapman why wouldn't you instead throw a godfather offer at the Sox for Sale?

Wouldn't it be kind of funny if Sale walked out of the Sox dugout and started walking towards the Cubs dugout during tonight's game while taking off(ripping off?) his jersey, walking into the Cubs dugout and putting on a Cubs jersey?

and that would be the way that people found out that he was traded to the Cubs?

 

[beckdawg]

All the twisting of stats doesn't change that our pen was giving up a lot of runs, not keeping us in games and blowing saves. Rondon blew 4 of his last 10, yet people here insist Chapman is not an upgrade - or that he will be an 8th inning guy, which is laughable.

Rondon is 18 of 22 in chances and 48 of his last 56. Chapman is 20 of 21 and 53 of his last 57. I mean sure Chapman is better but you're talking pretty minor difference. 85% vs 92%. It's not about whether or not he's an upgrade. He's almost surely the best closer in the league meaning he's better than basically everyone. It's about whether he's worth what you're paying. The past two years Rondon's been worth 2.7 fWAR while Chapman is worth 3.9. So, over the better part of 1 and a half years he's been worth basically half a win each year more. Additionally, stating what happened isn't "twisting stats." The cubs sucked at getting LH batters out in the 6th and 7th inning. But they also addressed that by trading for Montgomery. That's where they gave up around 1/3 of their earned runs.

Regardless of my feelings for Chapman, he doesn't really change that because that's not going to be his usage and the people he's replacing wont be used there either. Montgomery might because having him and Wood to use against LH batters should yield better results. If you're making the argument for Chapman it isn't that he fixes those problems. The argument for Chapman would be he takes possibly a top 10ish bullpen with Montgomery in the fold and maybe makes them the best in baseball or at least in the conversation for the top 5.

If that's someone's stance, I can understand it. I can also understand the stance that Chapman as a playoff pitcher vs Chapman as a regular season pitcher might have distinctly different values. However, my view is I'd rather them use a similar package to acquire either a high caliber starter or an impact position player. More than likely you aim for the starter since the cubs have hitters. I'd rather have say 3 starters(Arrieta, Lester, +1) who can go 7+ innings in a playoff game and dominate a team rather than buying an elite bullpen and that also addresses the pending questions on Arrieta's contract. Granted, there's got to be someone out there like that to trade for and maybe there isn't. But, I have a hard time believing this sort of package + one or two more pieces couldn't land someone like Archer, Quintana or maybe Sale.

 

[TL1961]

You are right it rarely happens unless you are that type of special talent with youth, control, and friendly dollars. Hey Look. It's Chris Sale. Yes, he'll bring in a load.

McKinney and Warren wouldn't make the White Sox. So you are saying Torres and another lesser spec than Warren should be enough for Chris Sale. Correct me if I am wrong but you've admitted to not following the AL or really anyone besides the Cubs. It shows by your offer. That offer gets you Rodon. Not Chris Sale.

I have never said i don't follow the AL.

I think Sale is very, very good, and I would love to have him.

I did not realize the Sox were so good and so deep that McKinney would not make their team ever. Guess the Yanks are much worse. And, yes, Warren has no chance of making their roster. Not when you've got James Shields!

No, I don't expect Sale to go for peanuts, but I will bet anything that IF he gets traded it will be for far less than what you expect.

But if you think Hector Rondon would bring the same return as Chapman, I don't know what else there is to discuss.

 

[beckdawg]

Think playoffs. NO WAY can we say heading to the playoffs with the pen we had last week would we feel comfortable.

Think you're missing my point. I actually like the Montgomery trade because I feel that actually addressed the problem the bullpen had. Chapman surely makes the bullpen better but as I said in this post if you remove those 5 pitchers who struggled against LH batters the bullpen looks entirely different. For example, let's say the cubs had Mongomery instead of Peralta, Ramirez, Warren, Grimm and Strop to pitch those 38.2 innings(or him and some combo with Wood). And let's say he was ok but not amazing in that role having a 3.50 ERA. That as I suggested pushes the cubs bullpen ERA from 3.83 to 3.34. The only teams that would have a better bullpen ERA are the nationals, dodgers, Astros, O's, Mets, and Royals.

In other words, I feel Montgomery likely already puts the cubs at or near a top 5 bullpen assuming he's as advertised. Now as I said, Chapman surely upgrades the bullpen but I feel he's the definition of diminishing returns. The difference between a team with a 3.34 bullpen ERA and the Nats at 2.94(best) is almost nothing. Over 100 innings pitched that's the difference of 37 runs vs 33 given up. So you're talking 4 runs difference over 11 games.

 

[TL1961]

Rondon is 18 of 22 in chances and 48 of his last 56. Chapman is 20 of 21 and 53 of his last 57. I mean sure Chapman is better but you're talking pretty minor difference. 85% vs 92%. It's not about whether or not he's an upgrade. He's almost surely the best closer in the league meaning he's better than basically everyone. It's about whether he's worth what you're paying. The past two years Rondon's been worth 2.7 fWAR while Chapman is worth 3.9. So, over the better part of 1 and a half years he's been worth basically half a win each year more. Additionally, stating what happened isn't "twisting stats." The cubs sucked at getting LH batters out in the 6th and 7th inning. But they also addressed that by trading for Montgomery. That's where they gave up around 1/3 of their earned runs.

Regardless of my feelings for Chapman, he doesn't really change that because that's not going to be his usage and the people he's replacing wont be used there either. Montgomery might because having him and Wood to use against LH batters should yield better results. If you're making the argument for Chapman it isn't that he fixes those problems. The argument for Chapman would be he takes possibly a top 10ish bullpen with Montgomery in the fold and maybe makes them the best in baseball or at least in the conversation for the top 5.

If that's someone's stance, I can understand it. I can also understand the stance that Chapman as a playoff pitcher vs Chapman as a regular season pitcher might have distinctly different values. However, my view is I'd rather them use a similar package to acquire either a high caliber starter or an impact position player. More than likely you aim for the starter since the cubs have hitters. I'd rather have say 3 starters(Arrieta, Lester, +1) who can go 7+ innings in a playoff game and dominate a team rather than buying an elite bullpen and that also addresses the pending questions on Arrieta's contract. Granted, there's got to be someone out there like that to trade for and maybe there isn't. But, I have a hard time believing this sort of package + one or two more pieces couldn't land someone like Archer, Quintana or maybe Sale.

But they are not ridding themselves of Rondon!

They are going to have Chapman AND Rondon. THAT is huge!

If you think Rondon gets you through the playoffs and WS, you're more optimistic than I am . I think he's done well, and I like him. But he doesn't throw the ball by people. He's no lock down closer. He has been good. I am not saying he isn't good. Chapman is elite. And they will have both. THAT is what Theo is after. The model that worked for KC. Lights out after 6.

You have three lefties now, and three good RH pen pitchers/ Matchups, matchups, matchups.

I do agree that given this package, I would expect we could get a guy like Archer or Sale (for this and maybe more). But the last thing I would want is to be trading for a position player. Unless his name is Trout or Harper

Also -- people keep saying it's too much for a rental, but the word is that the holdup is the extension. So Theo is NOT paying this for a rental if that is the case.

 

[beckdawg]

But they are not ridding themselves of Rondon!

They are going to have Chapman AND Rondon. THAT is huge!

If you think Rondon gets you through the playoffs and WS, you're more optimistic than I am . I think he's done well, and I like him. But he doesn't throw the ball by people. He's no lock down closer. He has been good. I am not saying he isn't good. Chapman is elite. And they will have both. THAT is what Theo is after. The model that worked for KC. Lights out after 6.

You have three lefties now, and three good RH pen pitchers/ Matchups, matchups, matchups.

I do agree that given this package, I would expect we could get a guy like Archer or Sale (for this and maybe more). But the last thing I would want is to be trading for a position player. Unless his name is Trout or Harper

Also -- people keep saying it's too much for a rental, but the word is that the holdup is the extension. So Theo is NOT paying this for a rental if that is the case.

Chapman as a closer means rather little for match ups. You're not going to bring him in during the 6th or 7th inning and that's where they were struggling to begin with. So him being left handed is effectively moot. I can sorta see the idea of having him and Rondon as a match up monster in the 8th/9th innings but again, Rondon and Strop aren't bad there.

As for Rondon not being lock down.... i mean he has a 11.68 k/9 this year. Chapman is at 12.64. Better obviously again but the difference is minimal. Rondon is the 20th best reliever with qualifying innings in k/9. Think you're selling him short. Also for what it's worth, Strop is 18th in k/9. Edwards doesn't qualify yet because of innings but he's 10.29. They already have a very talented 7th-9th. They just aren't the names people are used to seeing yet because the cubs have been terrible for several years.