Trade deadline/rumors

[czman]

Let's look at this for a moment. Warren had one start 5 innings, 3 hits, 1 run, 6 SO. He pitched well when he started last season too. So he has some value as a cost controlled started. They also moved Torres, McKinney, Crawford and Vogelbach for what amounts to 2 RP. Could they have moved a very similar package for a upgrade in the rotation and then move Hammel out?

I don't buy into the narrative that the BP was the biggest need and that they are no more likely to win the WS and less likely in the future. They still need to find a replacement for Fowler and they need an upgrade in their rotation. If the cubs lose again in the playoffs and Chapman does not pitch a meaningful inning in the series, it will real hard to think this anything but a very bad deal.

Only time will tell and I hope they win it all. I worry about what this team will look like in 2 years if/when Arrieta/Lackey/Hammel are gone and Lester has continued to slide. That is a lot of starting pitching to come up with in this market in a very short time. I know I would like to have some of that expendable talent to trade for SP.

 

[Payton!34]

I personally think we should or could have sent all of the players we gave for Montgomery and Chapman for Sale. I'd take Sale over the two we got. Montgomery has been stellar since coming here!! Lmfao thanks dick for losing the game tonight! When we win, we win big so a closer just doesn't have the value that a sp of immense quality and low cost brings!!!!!!!

 

[Boobaby1]

I personally think we should or could have sent all of the players we gave for Montgomery and Chapman for Sale. I'd take Sale over the two we got. Montgomery has been stellar since coming here!! Lmfao thanks dick for losing the game tonight! When we win, we win big so a closer just doesn't have the value that a sp of immense quality and low cost brings!!!!!!!

So you think the packages that were sent to the Mariners and Yankees would have gotten Sale? It would have been more like Schwarber, Torres, Baez and McKinney or Vogelbach.

Don't think so? Look at what the D-Backs paid to get Shelby Miller, and he is not even in the same stratosphere as Chris Sale.

 

[beckdawg]

At this point, the trade's done so I'm sort of over it. Presumably this front office thinks they can re-sign Chapman else I can't imagine you make the move and the rumored 4 year $15 mil/y extension would make a lot of sense. Only other reliever who's got $15 mil/y is Rivera from 2008-2012. And I believe the highest paid reliever next year will be Kimbrel at $13 mil. So that price point would make sense.

What I'm curious about is how this impacts he rest of their moves going forward. The total value of the contracts the cubs current players are worth for 2016 is $186,537,334 more or less. There's a few guys on the 40 man who're getting money(likely league min) that isn't accounted for but by in large that is essentially where they are. Given what the cubs have said, I think it's fair to believe this is the upper limits of their budget. They might have slightly more room with increased attendance and popularity but I think until they rework their tv contracts post 2019 this is sort of where they are at. So for the sake of argument let's just say they are going to be sub $200 mil going forward and possibly sub $190 mil.

I wont bore you with the math but by my estimation, after arbitration and filling in various FA/replacing depth the cubs already have something like $175 mil committed to 2017 assuming they re-sign Chapman to around $15 mil/y and once you factor in arbitration(Strop, Rondon, Grimm, Arrieta) and filling out roster depth. In 2018 you have Arreita and Strop as FA and Russell, Bryant, Hendricks and La Stella all hitting arbitration. Rondon is a 2019 FA. So, even though you probably replace Hammel internally with someone like Ryan Williams and letting Montero walk saves you around $14 mil, that money is going to be eaten quickly. Those are also the last big contracts falling off until you talk about Zobrist post 2019. Well, I suppose Lackey also is a 2018 FA but given the state of the cubs pitching in the upper minors I largely expect them to look to a similar deal to what they did with Lackey to replace him.

I think they might try to move Hammel in the offseason. At $10 mil or a $2 mil buyout there's really not even a choice. He's worth more than the $10 mil. The cubs probably could use the extra money to address other depth needs. Ryan Williams is doing his fairly bland thing in AAA at age 24 with a 3.27 ERA. He doesn't have huge upside but as a 5th starter he's likely going to be effective and cheap. Cincy got Keury Mella(50 grade) and Adam Duvall(bench corner infielder) for half a season of Mike Leake. A full season of Hammel is probably worth slightly more which might be a prospect in the 75-125ish range. In other words, someone like Cease who isn't quite a sure thing but someone with upside. Or alternatively, someone who's closer but has less upside like Pierce Johnson.

Assuming Arrieta wants around $30 mil/y they might be able to defer some money post 2019 and make him fit but it seems like money is going to be pretty tight the next few years. Without entirely gutting the rest of their farm system, I'm not sure they have the chips to deal for any #1 starter. Think they can make a few gambles at trying to fix starters who haven't performed for whatever reason. It would make sense for them to try and buy low on Shelby Miller though I think he's more of a #2/3 starter when right. I'd also like to see them try and acquire Kevin Gaussman, Drew Smyly and/or Daniel Norris.

 

[brett05]

I know you would but them selling Torres pretty much puts Baez off limits. Candi is blocked behind Bryant but is a SH that may become special as a hitter. He already has a strong idea of the strike zone. We could be talking a .300 hitter with a .400 OBA with 15 HR power as a floor if his power stays the same. That is not a bad player to have at any position much less 3B.

I would say Ceace and one of the lefties and Sox would take it before Sale starts to burn team flags next.

He just might do that.

White Sox don't need pitching in return. It's something they are good at. Sale would have to return a Baez, or better from the major league roster

 

[brett05]

I don't see anyway you can move Hendricks. For one thing, I doubt any front office is going to give you proper value for the results he puts up. His stuff just isn't ever going to make a team drool to the point they think he's a large piece. For example, Doug Fister before being dealt to the Nats was sort of in a similar situation and they got Robbie Ray who wasn't really that highly regarded.

On top of that, not sure why the Sox would want Hendricks. If you are trading Sale you are more or less tanking. What you want is the highest rated prospects you can get not current MLB pieces.

Young controllable pieces are what they need. Doesn't matter if they are on the MLB roster or not. This isn't NBA type tanking.

 

[brett05]

I was just having a little fun withbyou, Brett. Not trying to ruffle feathers.

Thanks. Means a lot to me. :hi5:

 

[beckdawg]

Reading what the reported price on starting pitching makes me wonder what the cubs could get for Hammel. The Rays are supposedly asking for Joey Gallo for either of Odorizzi or Moore. The price on the Sox starters is extreme. We've already seen what 1 good year of Pomeranz nets and the Pads are surely trying to acquire similar for Cashner. Now that's not to say Hammel is as valuable as those players. On the other hand, he's only 33, is in team control for the next year and a half($10 mil option) and since 2014 his ERA/FIP is 3.55/3.94 which is right in a similar range to Edison Volquez who the rangers are reportedly interested in.

Essentially, I'm curious how far off it would be if the cubs asked the Tigers for Daniel Norris for Hammel. Same idea applies to the Jays for Marcus Stroman and O's on Kevin Gausman. Those teams obviously could use the help with pitching. The cubs would get a younger starter to groom in their #5 slot with a good bullpen behind him in case of trouble. And while those players obviously are better long term values, those 3 teams really don't have the parts to make a trade for the likes of Moore/Odorizzi/Cashner at the reported asking prices. If I were those teams I don't think I would even consider those offers but then I didn't think there was any chance Chapman would net what he did. And those particular pitchers aren't really helping their teams. Stroman's ERA/FIP is 4.90/3.95. Norris' is 5.25/4.22. Gausman is a little better since last I looked at 3.77/4.09. He probably doesn't make as much sense given that.

Just feel like at this point the cubs are going to have to be creative to acquire the young starter they reportedly wanted. Extorting the same trade market that mad them pay thru the nose for a reliever seems like a good place to start. And while Hammel is probably a #4 on many teams the cubs would only be replacing their #5. Might even be worth it to see what Matusz has as a starter before the offseason. If he's turned a corner like Arrieta did after leaving the O's, he suddenly becomes a very interesting player that they will want to re-sign.

 

[brett05]

I think you'll need to come up with a lot more than Hammel for a younger pitcher.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I think you'll need to come up with a lot more than Hammel for a younger pitcher.

Which is why I think they may be sniffing around Shelby Miller who they liked a lot before the lopsided trade. I get that he's been bad but when he's right he's a good pitcher, although I'm not sure he's the TOR in waiting people have thought he was. I'm just not sure they really mean he's available at a discount though. Worth some phone conversations though and I'm sure they've been having them.

 

[brett05]

Which is why I think they may be sniffing around Shelby Miller who they liked a lot before the lopsided trade. I get that he's been bad but when he's right he's a good pitcher, although I'm not sure he's the TOR in waiting people have thought he was. I'm just not sure they really mean he's available at a discount though. Worth some phone conversations though and I'm sure they've been having them.

Oh I agree and I think you get him for less. Just Hammel is not worth it to a team for a younger starter was all I am saying.

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

We have major concerns with Arrieta and clutch hitting/RISP. Not sure why people we'll magically be able to hit with RISP come October. We've been brutal all year.

And the decline of Arrieta is perhaps most troubling. If he's not an Ace, we're screwed.

We have a bunch of #2 and #3 starters, but no #1. He has to find his groove or we're going to have a hard time winning three playoff series'.


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[TC in Mississippi]

The Didgers are willing to include Julio Urias in a trade for Chris Sale. You would think, with the addition of a couple of bats, that the White Sox could show interest in that.

http://nypost.com/2016/07/25/dodgers-would-put-julio-urias-on-table-in-chris-sale-talks/

 

[brett05]

We have major concerns with Arrieta and clutch hitting/RISP. Not sure why people we'll magically be able to hit with RISP come October. We've been brutal all year.

And the decline of Arrieta is perhaps most troubling. If he's not an Ace, we're screwed.

We have a bunch of #2 and #3 starters, but no #1. He has to find his groove or we're going to have a hard time winning three playoff series'.


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Kyle's been your number one for 8 weeks now

 

[brett05]

The Didgers are willing to include Julio Urias in a trade for Chris Sale. You would think, with the addition of a couple of bats, that the White Sox could show interest in that.

http://nypost.com/2016/07/25/dodgers-would-put-julio-urias-on-table-in-chris-sale-talks/

It's going to depend on the bats. I'd do a Urias/Seager Pederson for Sale and Frasier

 

[TC in Mississippi]

It's going to depend on the bats. I'd do a Urias/Seager Pederson for Sale and Frasier

I doubt you'd get all three of those guys in that deal but if you could get Urias, Pederson, Austin Barnes and maybe Alex Verdugo. Barnes would solve a huge hole for your boys at catcher.

 

[beckdawg]

I think you'll need to come up with a lot more than Hammel for a younger pitcher.

Kinda surprised you'd suggest that. You've long been the one saying proven pitching comes at a cost. I get Hammel isn't the prototypical trade piece at the deadline. But he's clearly not nothing. There's a number of teams where he'd easily be the #4 starter in a playoff series. If Sale is two top 25 prospects, and a couple more top 100 prospects and middle of the rotation starters like Moore and Odorizzi are a top 10 prospect, surely Hammel is worth a top 100 prospect in this environment.

Now, I'd agree teams are probably more reluctant to give up current prospects for a guy like Hammel but the reason I specifically mentioned the names I did is because those are former top prospects who've struggled. Over 44 starts Stroman has a career 4.02/3.41 ERA/FIP. Not the worst ever but a 4 ERA doesn't scream top prospect and when you consider this year he's at 4.90/3.95 some of the luster from prospect status should ware off. Over 59 starts, Gausman is similarly at 4.09/3.88. Norris hasn't been as healthy and has only made 17 starts but he's at 4.07/4.72.

As I said before, if I were running a team I'd be reluctant to deal those arms. But given the utter lack of arms that are readily available for anything approaching reasonable, I feel like Hammel has more value than he otherwise would. For example, take Texas. They are supposedly looking at Edison Volquez who's put up similar numbers to Hammel the past 3 years. Would you rather give up Gallo and get Moore/Odorizzi or say Luis Ortiz who's a similar level prospect to Underwood for Volquez/Hammel?

 

[brett05]

I doubt you'd get all three of those guys in that deal but if you could get Urias, Pederson, Austin Barnes and maybe Alex Verdugo. Barnes would solve a huge hole for your boys at catcher.

I think we are going to wait on Collins for our catching needs, possibly pursue Lucroy in the off season.

I'm not sure we get those three either, but really they'd be under paying.

 

[beckdawg]

Which is why I think they may be sniffing around Shelby Miller who they liked a lot before the lopsided trade. I get that he's been bad but when he's right he's a good pitcher, although I'm not sure he's the TOR in waiting people have thought he was. I'm just not sure they really mean he's available at a discount though. Worth some phone conversations though and I'm sure they've been having them.

I did read the Dbacks knew when they made him available that he would be less than they gave up to trade.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I did read the Dbacks knew when they made him available that he would be less than they gave up to trade.

No I get it, I'm just not sure what that means. They gave up a top 10 prospect in all of baseball, a top 20 prospect and a solid starting MLB OF. His value was much less than that to begin with so what are we really talking? From the Cubs does Soler, Jiminez and Candelerio get him? Even that seems a little pricey for what he's been this year and his ups and downs in the past. If the price is less than those three guys the Cubs should probably make that move yesterday.