Western Conference Magic Numbers

[otunj20]

Updated with 2/24 results

 

[Chief Walking Stick]

Blackhawks are already in the playoffs no question... just stay healthy.

 

[genefoley]

If they get half of their total possible remaining points they'll have 63 (I think 59 points is equivalent to 100 points in a regular 82 game season).

 

[supraman]

I have to admit, I still dont understand how to read these magic numbers....

 

[otunj20]

I have to admit, I still dont understand how to read these magic numbers....

Maybe this will clarify and it may be easier since the Hawks are in 1st place. The top row are numbers are the blackhawks' magic numbers against each of the teams listed above the numbers.



Let's use the current magic number for Columbus (38). Before last night's game, the magic number against CBJ was 42. Since the blackhawks won last night, the MN went down to 40. Plus, Columbus lost last night, so it goes down an additional 2 to 38. If Columbus lost in a SO/OT, it would be 39 because Columbus would have only lost a point.



Once a magic number against a team reaches negative, the Blackhawks are guaranteed to finish higher than that team because that team cannot catch up with the Hawks in the standings with the games remaining. When the magic numbers against 7 teams are negative, blackhawks are guaranteed to finish above those 7 teams, meaning they are guaranteed to be in the top 8, meaning guaranteed a playoff spot.

 

[PatrickShart]

I have to admit, I still dont understand how to read these magic numbers....

I have magic fingers

 

[supraman]

Maybe this will clarify and it may be easier since the Hawks are in 1st place. The top row are numbers are the blackhawks' magic numbers against each of the teams listed above the numbers.



Let's use the current magic number for Columbus (38). Before last night's game, the magic number against CBJ was 42. Since the blackhawks won last night, the MN went down to 40. Plus, Columbus lost last night, so it goes down an additional 2 to 38. If Columbus lost in a SO/OT, it would be 39 because Columbus would have only lost a point.



Once a magic number against a team reaches negative, the Blackhawks are guaranteed to finish higher than that team because that team cannot catch up with the Hawks in the standings with the games remaining. When the magic numbers against 7 teams are negative, blackhawks are guaranteed to finish above those 7 teams, meaning they are guaranteed to be in the top 8, meaning guaranteed a playoff spot.

OH I got it so the the number is the point threshhold to finish better than that particular team. I understand now.

 

[otunj20]

OH I got it so the the number is the point threshhold to finish better than that particular team. I understand now.

Correct. God forbid the Hawks lose in regulation tonight against EDM, the MN stays the same. As long as the Hawks are ahead of the standings, the magic number doesn't move if teams below them win or if the hawks lose in regulation. But if Hawks lose in OT/SO, it will go down only 1 because they gained a point. Here are the scenarios for tonights game vs EDM



CHI win, EDM loss - MN goes down 4

CHI win, EDM OT/SO loss - MN goes down 3

CHI SO/OT loss, EDM win - MN goes down 1

CHI loss, EDM win - stays the same

 

[the canadian dream]

the magic number is an iiiiiillllllluuuuuuuusssssssiiiiiiiioooooooon!

 

[MassHavoc]

I think TCD needs a timeout that's not an Illlluuuuussssioooon...

 

[the canadian dream]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZrkuPIt2bk

 

[Spunky Porkstacker]

Maybe this will clarify and it may be easier since the Hawks are in 1st place. The top row are numbers are the blackhawks' magic numbers against each of the teams listed above the numbers.



Let's use the current magic number for Columbus (38). Before last night's game, the magic number against CBJ was 42. Since the blackhawks won last night, the MN went down to 40. Plus, Columbus lost last night, so it goes down an additional 2 to 38. If Columbus lost in a SO/OT, it would be 39 because Columbus would have only lost a point.



Once a magic number against a team reaches negative, the Blackhawks are guaranteed to finish higher than that team because that team cannot catch up with the Hawks in the standings with the games remaining. When the magic numbers against 7 teams are negative, blackhawks are guaranteed to finish above those 7 teams, meaning they are guaranteed to be in the top 8, meaning guaranteed a playoff spot.

Bingo !!



Got it. This is great!

 

[BigPete]

This may have been asked and answered already, but:



How many points do the experts think a team will need to reach the playoffs in this shortened season? [My guess would be 55% or 53 points.]



(There are 96 points available this season, but normally there 164. Most years they say it will take 90 points to make the playoffs.)

 

[otunj20]

This may have been asked and answered already, but:



How many points do the experts think a team will need to reach the playoffs in this shortened season? [My guess would be 55% or 53 points.]



(There are 96 points available this season, but normally there 164. Most years they say it will take 90 points to make the playoffs.)

53 points in shortened season is about 90 points in a full season

59 points in shortened season is about 100 points in a full season

 

[BigPete]

53 points in shortened season is about 90 points in a full season

59 points in shortened season is about 100 points in a full season

Thanks, I did the math too, obviously.



I was just wondering if TSN or someone else gave their predictions yet. Hell, I would just like popular opinion from the folks here.

 

[MassHavoc]

I think with the shortened season and the lack of parity starting to show... I think there is going to be more points at the top making it a tighter race and less points at the bottom... I'll say last team in will need at least 55.

 

[Ton]

I think 54 or 55 sounds about right.

 

[dlrob315]

As of today it is trending at 53.

 

[otunj20]

Updated with 2/25/13 results - gained 4 points on ANA

 

[MassHavoc]

Sorry to do this again, but I want to make sure I'm reading it right... we're 20 points away from clinching over ANA (if everything stayed the same course) and only 1 point away from being guaranteed better than Columbus?



I have to say that it's really impressive to have the hawks be this good when 4 out of 5 divisional teams sit in playoff spots right now. Even if we've only had 5 games against them. We are still 5-0.