What Theo needs to do in 2018

[CSF77]

Hannemann has tools but he's a solid AAA OF. He can't get on base even in the lower levels at a fairly advanced age and he is a fairly aggressive pull hitter even though he doesn't possess a ton of power to need to pull. I agree with whoever said he's the future Leonys Martin where you put him in CF (or maybe LF and have him pinch run) but he's not here for his bat or ability to be a 9 inning OF and he's likely a luxury on a 25 man roster you can't really afford but makes sense in September when they expand to 40.

Zaguins on the other hand has crazy OBP numbers at all levels of the minors and as a right handed hitter, could provide a decent platoon option in LF with Schwarber. He also has value as an emergency catcher as well as the fact he had more BB than K against lefties last year.

You platoon Happ/Schwarber/Almora at CF/LF it solves that problem with out wasting a roster space. He is fluff

 

[chibears55]

You platoon Happ/Schwarber/Almora at CF/RF it solves that problem with out wasting a roster space. He is fluff

They need to get away from multiple platoon players and get somewhat of a set lineup...

Zobrist and Happ being SH can be the guys used mostly to give breaks and righty lefty matchups but other then that, id like to see pretty much the same lineup most every day..

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[CSF77]

They need to get away from multiple platoon players and get somewhat of a set lineup...

Zobrist and Happ being SH can be the guys used mostly to give breaks and righty lefty matchups but other then that, id like to see pretty much the same lineup most every day..

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Honestly that won’t happen with the splits of some of the players and honestly it feels Maddon likes his toys and it would be up to Theo to take them away to force a fixed line up of any sort.

 

[CSF77]

I presented a decent plan that would work for next year. Now it does bring into play of if the Cubs have enough ammo to pull back a needed return.

From what I see. Baez and Russell is fluff. You do not need both.

Happ could be fluff if they feel Almora and Schwarber are not platoon split guys.

Schwarber has low sale value and is not a headliner but still could be if he put up his 2nd half production over a whole season.

They have little trade weight in the farm.

They are not going to address every need via F/A

So there you have it. That is pretty much the reality of the situation. I’m interested in how it plays out but if I was a betting man it would end up Archer for a package headlined by Baez. Then Davis resigned. Rest of the pen would be hammered out from many avenues after. Then they have to stitch the holes left open by the trade.

 

[chibears55]

Honestly that won’t happen with the splits of some of the players and honestly it feels Maddon likes his toys and it would be up to Theo to take them away to force a fixed line up of any sort.

I do see changes...

C. Contreras
1B. Rizzo
2B. Baez
SS. Russell
3B. Bryant

These guys should play most everyday

Basically you got the OF ..

Right now it
Schwarber Almora Heyward

Barring trade, Heyward pretty much an everyday player due to his defense..
Sits mostly against tougher LHers

So now you got Schwarber and Almora
Both are possible trade bait for pitching..

If 1 is moved, then all theyd need to do is replace that guy with someone who can hit both sides good..

So, were not talking about a major overhaul in the lineup..
Just 1 or 2 guys

Yhey can easily get a mostly set lineup for 2018



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[CSF77]

I do see changes...

C. Contreras
1B. Rizzo
2B. Baez
SS. Russell
3B. Bryant

These guys should play most everyday

Basically you got the OF ..

Right now it
Schwarber Almora Heyward

Barring trade, Heyward pretty much an everyday player due to his defense..
Sits mostly against tougher LHers

So now you got Schwarber and Almora
Both are possible trade bait for pitching..

If 1 is moved, then all theyd need to do is replace that guy with someone who can hit both sides good..

So, were not talking about a major overhaul in the lineup..
Just 1 or 2 guys

Yhey can easily get a mostly set lineup for 2018



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I get that and honestly Baez, Almora and Azolay is a fringe offer to pull back Archer. If Tampa really wants those 3 really bad then I would not be heart broken over it. Because I know we are getting a front line starter in return for questionable everyday player value.

 

[DanTown]

Of course I’d love to trade Baez as the main point of a Chris Archer trade but there’s no way the Rays trade Archer for that little.

There is no Chris Archer trade without Contreras or Bryant.

 

[CSF77]

Of course I’d love to trade Baez as the main point of a Chris Archer trade but there’s no way the Rays trade Archer for that little.

There is no Chris Archer trade without Contreras or Bryant.

Bryant is a 6 war player. Archer is a 5 right now at best. As much as we desire Archer that deal is flipped and the Rays have to start adding in players.

Contreras is a 3-4 WAR at a premium spot. With higher potential. We could be talking another Yadi being very realistic here. His flaws should lessen with maturity and he is already good enough to be in a run production situation at this early point in his career in a typical D position. We could be talking about him and Buster in the same sentence and Archer doesn’t buy Buster.

So no I don’t agree with that.

I see it as Baez 2-3 WAR. He has done that for 2 years now and that is what he is. Almora 1.4 WAR in a platoon. As a full time he may equal Baez’s value. That potentially is 4 WAR as a min that is just undervaluing them in general. Then you add in the nearest mid level rotation arm. Maybe a year out if they hold him back some. He should be top 150 right now honestly. It is fringe equal value as is as I said and that is lowballing

 

[chibears55]

Rizzo Contreras and Bryant are the only non available guys on team for trades...

If their set on trading for a TOR type starter like Archer or Stroman, you know the other team going to want young pitching in return like Tseng or Mills etc. and a major league bat..

I still think for Archer..

Schwarber , Tseng or Mills, a low end pitcher, and a low end position player or another pitcher will get the deal done..

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[DanTown]

Bryant is a 6 war player. Archer is a 5 right now at best. As much as we desire Archer that deal is flipped and the Rays have to start adding in players.

Contreras is a 3-4 WAR at a premium spot. With higher potential. We could be talking another Yadi being very realistic here. His flaws should lessen with maturity and he is already good enough to be in a run production situation at this early point in his career in a typical D position. We could be talking about him and Buster in the same sentence and Archer doesn’t buy Buster.

So no I don’t agree with that.

I see it as Baez 2-3 WAR. He has done that for 2 years now and that is what he is. Almora 1.4 WAR in a platoon. As a full time he may equal Baez’s value. That potentially is 4 WAR as a min that is just undervaluing them in general. Then you add in the nearest mid level rotation arm. Maybe a year out if they hold him back some. He should be top 150 right now honestly. It is fringe equal value as is as I said and that is lowballing

I obviously wouldn’t trade those two to get him but no one else is high value enough to warrant trading Archer, who they don’t have to trade. It also wouldn’t be the best package on the market if they were to move Archer. They have no need for Almora and the Cubs don’t have enough high value prospects. Eloy and Cease was what Q cost and Archer has a higher ceiling, more years, and less cost while Eloy is a higher value prospect than any non Bryant/Contreras youth.

And you can’t add up three 1-2 WAR guys to trade for a 4-5 WAR guy. It’s terrible logic.

The Cubs aren’t getting Archer without KB or Contreras going and the Cubs aren’t doing it.

 

[CSF77]

I obviously wouldn’t trade those two to get him but no one else is high value enough to warrant trading Archer, who they don’t have to trade. It also wouldn’t be the best package on the market if they were to move Archer. They have no need for Almora and the Cubs don’t have enough high value prospects. Eloy and Cease was what Q cost and Archer has a higher ceiling, more years, and less cost while Eloy is a higher value prospect than any non Bryant/Contreras youth.

And you can’t add up three 1-2 WAR guys to trade for a 4-5 WAR guy. It’s terrible logic.

The Cubs aren’t getting Archer without KB or Contreras going and the Cubs aren’t doing it.

I still disagree about KB as part of anything getting archer. He holds higher value and that i take exception to. Your logic is flawed and if the Cubs did put him on the market teams would be lining up offers that Would make any offer made for Archer look like a joke.

 

[CSF77]

And also posting 1-2 WAR players in reguards to Almora and Baez is again a devaluation.

Baez put up a 2.2 right after a 2.7 year. 1-2 posted is unfactual and. Baseless.

Almora was in your range but he did that in a limited capacity. Would he devalue facing a heavier diet of RHSP. Under debate as he does possess a quality contact rate and adding innings increases his dWAR value. I’m believing 2 WAR could end up a floor with him in a larger role.

Now if you then want to say 2 2+ WAR players don’t buy a 4-5 WAR pitcher that is perfectly fine. I’m not going to argue that bit but it really depends on what the Ray’s needs are

 

[CSF77]

Rizzo Contreras and Bryant are the only non available guys on team for trades...

If their set on trading for a TOR type starter like Archer or Stroman, you know the other team going to want young pitching in return like Tseng or Mills etc. and a major league bat..

I still think for Archer..

Schwarber , Tseng or Mills, a low end pitcher, and a low end position player or another pitcher will get the deal done..

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That offer holds less value from what I posted.

Schwarber put up equal WAR to Almora in a greater capacity. His “current” value is repressed. We were expecting Contreras type value and ended up with a reserves contribution.

Tseng/Mills are back of the rotation. And maybe barely that unless they just flat out perform at a high level. Based off of pure talent they are not high tools types.

Tossing in a mulligan after. Honestly they do not have position players in the top 100.

So that offer is honestly not enough to buy Stroman today. If Schwarber puts up a year that he is capeble of then the conversation changes

 

[CSF77]

The Cubs might be willing to listen on big-name players in order to acquire young pitchers, Phil Rogers of MLB.com reports. He lists Chris Archer, Marcus Stroman, Sean Manaea, Aaron Nola and Michael Fulmer as potential targets, noting that only Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Willson Contreras are likely to be considered untouchable. The Cubs’ starting staff finished with a 4.05 combined ERA last season, but could see former Cy Young-winner Jake Arrieta leave in free agency (Rogers cites the Rangers as a team that could potentially sign him).

Chris Archer: Career 11.9 WAR over 6 seasons. He had one 4.3 WAR season. Last two years have been at a 1.8 and a 1.2. Maybe we are over evaluating him by a bit. His biggest selling point is his SO/9 at a career 9.7.

Marcus Stroman: Career WAR 10.9 over 4 seasons. He put up over half of his total WAR value this year at a 5.8. He has the feel of Hendricks pushing out 200 IP every year. Not as flashy but more substance than a one trick pony.

Sean Manaea: Don't think I will bother with this. More so about need a RHSP at the top vs another lefty. Over redundant and a waste of resource.

Aaron Nola: I'm Not really sold on his value ATM. Rookie year was good in a short season. year 2 honestly he was a low budget roster filler. 2017 he took notice. SO/9 are really good at a 9.4. So he has good SO stuff but his peak IP is at 168. I'm having a hard time viewing him as a upgrade to Hendricks. Honestly he maybe but there is not not enough evidence to support it until he pushes out a 200 IP campaign.

Michael Fulmer: Not sure why he is on this list. The Cubs already tried to trade for him and Det would not sell. There is nothing that leads me to believe that they would ever trade him. Feels like a speculation opinion or a way of gauging a set group of similar pitchers.

 

[Parade_Rain]

My choice would be Archer or Stroman.

 

[DanTown]

And also posting 1-2 WAR players in reguards to Almora and Baez is again a devaluation.

Baez put up a 2.2 right after a 2.7 year. 1-2 posted is unfactual and. Baseless.

Almora was in your range but he did that in a limited capacity. Would he devalue facing a heavier diet of RHSP. Under debate as he does possess a quality contact rate and adding innings increases his dWAR value. I’m believing 2 WAR could end up a floor with him in a larger role.

Now if you then want to say 2 2+ WAR players don’t buy a 4-5 WAR pitcher that is perfectly fine. I’m not going to argue that bit but it really depends on what the Ray’s needs are

First, he Rays don’t need a CF like Almora with Kiermaier there. And at SS, Hechavarria has similar profile to Baez: decent pop, low OBP, good defense and base running. I’ll say Baez is an upgrade but not nearly a big enough upgrade to entertain the idea of trading for Archer.

When I say it would take Bryant or Contreras, that’s because those are the only two guys in the system who could headline a deal that TB would say yes to. It’s quite obvious the Cubs aren’t trading those two players.

Again, it TB trades Archer (which they literally don’t have to as he has such a low cost and numerous years left he could even survive a rebuild), they will get/want young players with high ceilings or young players who have been productive in the majors. Javy Baez does not have the trade value of a Eloy Jimmnez because we’ve seen a ton of AAA/MLB PA from Baez without high level development. Sure he’s a capable starter but that doesn’t mean teams would trade super high value assets and want Baez as the headliner of a deal. Schwarber has unfortunately not progrsssed as a hitter to a point where a team would trade a sure thing such as Archer and say “yeah, that’s a guy who’s headlining a deal back”. And finally, the Cubs don’t have any arms in their system that are highly projected to be future TOR arms that could interest TB.

 

[CSF77]

First, he Rays don’t need a CF like Almora with Kiermaier there. And at SS, Hechavarria has similar profile to Baez: decent pop, low OBP, good defense and base running. I’ll say Baez is an upgrade but not nearly a big enough upgrade to entertain the idea of trading for Archer.

When I say it would take Bryant or Contreras, that’s because those are the only two guys in the system who could headline a deal that TB would say yes to. It’s quite obvious the Cubs aren’t trading those two players.

Again, it TB trades Archer (which they literally don’t have to as he has such a low cost and numerous years left he could even survive a rebuild), they will get/want young players with high ceilings or young players who have been productive in the majors. Javy Baez does not have the trade value of a Eloy Jimmnez because we’ve seen a ton of AAA/MLB PA from Baez without high level development. Sure he’s a capable starter but that doesn’t mean teams would trade super high value assets and want Baez as the headliner of a deal. Schwarber has unfortunately not progrsssed as a hitter to a point where a team would trade a sure thing such as Archer and say “yeah, that’s a guy who’s headlining a deal back”. And finally, the Cubs don’t have any arms in their system that are highly projected to be future TOR arms that could interest TB.

Teams trade for control also. Then sell for more control. They are small market and payroll is always a factor.

But seeing how he has dumped in value 2 years in a row I still don’t see him commanding this huge package.

You can argue pitching is rarer and increases value but coming off two sub 2 WAR years is not going to place him into a 4-5 WAR value player return.

I see this as strucken by SO vs looking at it with a business mindset

 

[Shawon0Meter]

 

[DanTown]

Teams trade for control also. Then sell for more control. They are small market and payroll is always a factor.

But seeing how he has dumped in value 2 years in a row I still don’t see him commanding this huge package.

You can argue pitching is rarer and increases value but coming off two sub 2 WAR years is not going to place him into a 4-5 WAR value player return.

I see this as strucken by SO vs looking at it with a business mindset

What are you talking about control? Archer has more control than either hitter on the Cubs while being more productive (200 innings, sub 3.5 FIP) at a higher value position.

Also, baseball reference has him that low by Fangraphs doesn't so I have no idea why baseball reference has him that low but it makes no sense to say he was a two win pitcher. Even if you wanted to average out baseball reference and fangraphs, he'd be at 3 and that would be more normal. No one thinks Chris Archer is a two WAR pitcher.

 

[Raskolnikov]

Schwarber should be moved to back-up catcher.
Get Harper next year.
Move Heyward to center.
Put Zobrist to pasture in left.
Get a bullpen.
Sign Arrieta or you aren't really trying.