What Theo needs to do in 2018

[beckdawg]

Well, even when we don't agree, I love reading you. For me, I get my Cubs baseball fix with your stuff.

ok, the issue is it would never have gotten Q IMO. Teams have these fringe guys all the time and eventually one or two move up. Which of those are is pretty much up in the air. So teams offer more of a sure thing in deals. Granted specs can never be sure things, but they've figured out a way to value them and give themselves the best chances to have those for sure things. That's why the Cubs offer for Q was probably fair for both sides if not an edge for the Cubs because of their Playoff Window that they are in and the pending loss of two starting pitchers.

Similarly the Rays are going to be looking for a deal close to what the White Sox got with Q. I mean they can ask for anything, but I think realistically they need two top ceiling guys coming their way and the Cubs aren't parting with Bryant, Rizzo, Contreras, Q. I'd even allow an argument to call Kyle Hendricks a top ceiling guy without any fight from me. That's the team core as well as the complete list of Top Ceiling guys that they have. Could a team want some of the smaller pieces? Absolutely, but I think the list of teams to get those impact ceiling types are quite a bit ahead of what the Cubs can offer right now.

I'm not sure i agree on the ray's asking price. I am always going to argue they are different than other teams just as the A's are. Given their limited financial situation being able to acquire someone like Caratini for 7 years who's ready today on a rookie deal is invaluable more than Eloy would be 2-3 years from now. That's not to say that Caratini is worth the same or more than Eloy but more that Tampa rarely is willing to wait a long time on talent. In the case of your Sox, they obviously are bigger into long term talent rather than near term availability.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Man that window came crashing down.

As impressively as the re-build went up really.

How many straight ALCS did the Sux get to again?

 

[beckdawg]

Also for what it's worth on teams like the As/rays, I don't think those teams are ever going to win by having peak talent. Those teams win by having better depth than other teams and surviving that way. So, in some ways I think it is foolish for them to try and get simply the most talented individual player over a nice selection of good but not great players. They have a lot harder time filling holes than a large market team so while in most cases you want top talent I don't think they are one of them.

 

[brett05]

Also for what it's worth on teams like the As/rays, I don't think those teams are ever going to win by having peak talent. Those teams win by having better depth than other teams and surviving that way. So, in some ways I think it is foolish for them to try and get simply the most talented individual player over a nice selection of good but not great players. They have a lot harder time filling holes than a large market team so while in most cases you want top talent I don't think they are one of them.

I think you make an excellent point. That said, there are still many more teams that can offer more.

 

[DanTown]

I like that the Cubs have a stable of solid guys who project to be regulars in the majors at various positions but that doesn't bring back valuable pitchers like Archer. Archer, whether real or not, has perceived value to be at the Sale/Quintana level as well as enough control that even if the Rays were to rebuild that they'd likely be saying "2018 is not our year" so if they're trading Archer under that premise why would they care about how many ML ready prospects you're sending? And the thing about prospects is that until they hit major league pitching, there is always a risk. So while Caratini is a decent trade piece, teams like the Rays (who value pitch framing) are unlikely to be swayed by a C's bat over his glove.

And of course, if the Rays did want ready prospects, that then opens the door to the Red Sox offering say Bogarerts for Archer or the Dodgers offering something like one of their arm guys (Buehler) and someone like Chris Taylor. It would be impossible for the Cubs to top that offer. The Rays would get a legit leadoff guy in Taylor and then a top flight arm that probably replaces Archer in 2018. I just fail to see how the Cubs have the best package when compared to the rest of the majors to get Chris Archer. Even if you want to slant an argument as to what the Rays want (and it's unlikely a package based around Baez as they had a 2-3 WAR SS in Tim Beckham and traded him for a non top prospect), I just fail to see how the Cubs would even top that hypo.

 

[DanTown]

Also for what it's worth on teams like the As/rays, I don't think those teams are ever going to win by having peak talent. Those teams win by having better depth than other teams and surviving that way. So, in some ways I think it is foolish for them to try and get simply the most talented individual player over a nice selection of good but not great players. They have a lot harder time filling holes than a large market team so while in most cases you want top talent I don't think they are one of them.

But they already have a fairly deep stable of solid 2-4 WAR guys on their roster. Fangraphs has them with 5 2+ WAR guys (Souza, Morrison, Longoria, Kiermaier, Dickerson) while having four position players who are in their top 5 prospects with two of them probably coming next year (Bauers, Adames) and two of them the year after (Sanchez, McKay)

So let's say your the Rays. You're trading Archer for whatever your reason and you know that in 2019 you're hopeful that you already have six regular fielders

3 of the prospects (not even four)
Kiermaier (who's signed long term)
Longoria (long term)
Souza

Where do the guys the Cubs fit in to that? The Rays don't need depth; you could argue that what they have is a lot of average depth. What they truly need is one or two 5-6 WAR guys somewhere.

 

[CSF77]

I like that the Cubs have a stable of solid guys who project to be regulars in the majors at various positions but that doesn't bring back valuable pitchers like Archer. Archer, whether real or not, has perceived value to be at the Sale/Quintana level as well as enough control that even if the Rays were to rebuild that they'd likely be saying "2018 is not our year" so if they're trading Archer under that premise why would they care about how many ML ready prospects you're sending? And the thing about prospects is that until they hit major league pitching, there is always a risk. So while Caratini is a decent trade piece, teams like the Rays (who value pitch framing) are unlikely to be swayed by a C's bat over his glove.

And of course, if the Rays did want ready prospects, that then opens the door to the Red Sox offering say Bogarerts for Archer or the Dodgers offering something like one of their arm guys (Buehler) and someone like Chris Taylor. It would be impossible for the Cubs to top that offer. The Rays would get a legit leadoff guy in Taylor and then a top flight arm that probably replaces Archer in 2018. I just fail to see how the Cubs have the best package when compared to the rest of the majors to get Chris Archer. Even if you want to slant an argument as to what the Rays want (and it's unlikely a package based around Baez as they had a 2-3 WAR SS in Tim Beckham and traded him for a non top prospect), I just fail to see how the Cubs would even top that hypo.

I believe the issue is they had a team this year that was competitive. They have lose 2 hitters off of it and need to upgrade Miller.

Honestly they are still a competitive team and are not in a rebuild situation. So they are not in the Sox realm. Add to it are they not in a new stadium situation and strait up wrecking the team might not be wise.

That said I believe they need to keep competitive. They lost 2 hitters. 1 can be replaced internally. 2nd is a DH and honestly a small market is not going to pay premium for that.

A simple answer: Baez and Schwarber for Archer. What is Schwarbers control? 5 years? He put up a 1.5 (at best) so that is 7.5 WAR value. Then he becomes the desired cheap DH. Baez goes to 2B. The numbers match up better in WAR exchanged and THe Rays can gamble on Schwarber’s greatness.

Cubs start Happ at LF and move on with life.

 

[CSF77]

Even then if the plan was Arretta=> Archer. Lackey=> Cobb then adding in Tseng would also be a nice add if they wanted extra SP depth

 

[beckdawg]

But they already have a fairly deep stable of solid 2-4 WAR guys on their roster. Fangraphs has them with 5 2+ WAR guys (Souza, Morrison, Longoria, Kiermaier, Dickerson) while having four position players who are in their top 5 prospects with two of them probably coming next year (Bauers, Adames) and two of them the year after (Sanchez, McKay)

So let's say your the Rays. You're trading Archer for whatever your reason and you know that in 2019 you're hopeful that you already have six regular fielders

3 of the prospects (not even four)
Kiermaier (who's signed long term)
Longoria (long term)
Souza

Where do the guys the Cubs fit in to that? The Rays don't need depth; you could argue that what they have is a lot of average depth. What they truly need is one or two 5-6 WAR guys somewhere.

You're missing part of the equation here. Those players you have listed are all making real money. Longoria is making roughly $14 mil. Souza is making Arb 1, Morrison is a FA who was making $2.5 mil but likely will be in the $5-8 mil range. Kiermaier is making roughly $6 mil. Dickerson is making Arb 2. It's not hard to imagine that grouping making up close to $40 mil of their budget of which 2017 they spent $70 mil. Given that doesn't include a single pitcher it doesn't leave a ton of room to play with. For example, Odorizzi and Archer easily are going to cost them $12 mil. So you're talking about 7 players taking up $50-55 mil for them out of likely $70-80 mil tops leaving you 18 players plus another 15 on the 40 man making min or $7.5 mil total. That means the other 18 players on their roster can't cost much more than $1 mil each

That's why I say teams like the A's and Rays can't just sit and wait on top tier talent if they actually want to be competitive. They continually have to churn guys who are in arbitration for newer guys who plug holes. That's not to say they specifically have to deal Archer. They might do the same thing with Odorizzi instead but my point is more they can't get caught up on getting a top 5 player or no deal. They are far better off getting useful players and then selling them down the line when they become expensive too.

 

[DanTown]

Dee Gordon isn't a great (but definitely a good) leadoff guy (only a .341 OBP last year) but he doesn't strike out a ton, is a plus defender at 2B, and if the Marlins are really looking to trade him, Gordon for Baez could make a lot of sense for the Cubs. You just plug in Gordon at 2B 150+ times a year and platoon him a touch more than the Marlins did and maybe that's closer to a .350-.355 OBP. Add in his speed and you have a lineup that makes a lot of sense. You play Happ/Zobrist/Schwarber/Almora as a platoon in the LF/CF spots and then play Gordon mostly at 2B with Zobrist getting 20-30 starts there against lefties. So you'd go something like

vs RHP
Gordon - 2B
Bryant - 3B
Rizzo - 1B
Contreras - C
Schwarber - LF
Russell - SS
Happ/Zobrist - CF/RF
Heyward - RF/CF

vs LHP
Almora - CF
Bryant - 3B
Rizzo - 1B
Contreras - C
Zobrist - 2B
Russell - SS
Happ - LF
Heyward - RF (or start Gordon against some lefties and bat him leadoff, move everyone else down a spot, play Zobrist in RF)

 

[Omeletpants]

How is Dee Gordon an upgrade over Baez?

 

[Iceman2385]

My dream scenario for the offseason. For SP, trade Baez+ for stroman and sign Cobb. For BP, trade a prospect for Colome and sign Shaw and Nesheck. Don't have to sign two relievers if we trade for Colome, but as we've seen for playoff teams the BP is very important so why not have as good options as possible to prevent having to make a deal at the deadline.

Rotation: Lester, Q, Cobb, Hendricks and stroman
BP: Colome, shaw, Nesheck, CJ, Strop, Wilson, Monty, etc.

Lineup: 1st Rizz 2nd Happ/Zobs/TLS SS Addy 3rd KB LF Schwarbs/Zobs/Happ CF AA/JHey/ free agent RF JHey/ Zobs.

To me that's a stacked and improved team that should push for 100 wins.

 

[beckdawg]

Stroman isn't someone I particularly want. He's like a worse version of Hendricks in my eyes. On the surface that doesn't sound that bad because when Hendricks is on he's been a cy young type guy. But if you look at the numbers the difference between Stroman and a ground ball #4/5 starter like say mike leake isn't much. Stroman had a 7.34 k/9 and a 2.78 bb/9 this year. Leake had 6.29 k/9 and a 1.79 bb/9. If Stroman loses anything off his stuff in the coming years he's going to be in trouble. And at 5-8 180 lbs it's not like he's going to ever add to his fastball speed by putting on more size.

For similar reasons I'm also not that into Michael Fulmer though at least with him you're looking at a guy who's 6-3 210. Of the names currently being rumored as "available" I like Aaron Nola, Archer(obviously), and Sean Manaea. Manaea in particular I think has way more upside than we've seen in the majors. In the minors he struck out 10.8 per 9 over 221.2 innings which is way up from the 7.83 we've seen in his career. Anything over 9 k/9 is generally #1 starter stuff and 10 k/9 tends to get you in cy young talk. Frankly I'm not certain the A's would actually deal him given he's still ridiculously cheap for them but if he's out there I'd probably go for him before anyone else. I think he'd likely cost close to Archer's price just because of team control but I think he'd cost less. I don't see Philly moving Nola given they aren't exactly a small market team. Fulmer if it wasn't a crazy price I could probably live with. But on Stroman... I mean he'd have to be pretty cheap for me to be happy about acquiring him. And when I say pretty cheap I wouldn't give up any of the main headline pieces people talk about. I'd be ok with something like Alzolay + 2 lower level prospects which would never get a deal done.

 

[Iceman2385]

My dream scenario for the offseason. For SP, trade Baez+ for stroman and sign Cobb. For BP, trade a prospect for Colome and sign Shaw and Nesheck. Don't have to sign two relievers if we trade for Colome, but as we've seen for playoff teams the BP is very important so why not have as good options as possible to prevent having to make a deal at the deadline.

Rotation: Lester, Q, Cobb, Hendricks and stroman
BP: Colome, shaw, Nesheck, CJ, Strop, Wilson, Monty, etc.

Lineup: 1st Rizz 2nd Happ/Zobs/TLS SS Addy 3rd KB LF Schwarbs/Zobs/Happ CF AA/JHey/ free agent RF JHey/ Zobs.

To me that's a stacked and improved team that should push for 100 wins.

Obv Baez+ seems far fetched for stroman, but he would just be my #1 choice of CCSPs that could possible be available.

 

[Iceman2385]

Stroman isn't someone I particularly want. He's like a worse version of Hendricks in my eyes. On the surface that doesn't sound that bad because when Hendricks is on he's been a cy young type guy. But if you look at the numbers the difference between Stroman and a ground ball #4/5 starter like say mike leake isn't much. Stroman had a 7.34 k/9 and a 2.78 bb/9 this year. Leake had 6.29 k/9 and a 1.79 bb/9. If Stroman loses anything off his stuff in the coming years he's going to be in trouble. And at 5-8 180 lbs it's not like he's going to ever add to his fastball speed by putting on more size.

For similar reasons I'm also not that into Michael Fulmer though at least with him you're looking at a guy who's 6-3 210. Of the names currently being rumored as "available" I like Aaron Nola, Archer(obviously), and Sean Manaea. Manaea in particular I think has way more upside than we've seen in the majors. In the minors he struck out 10.8 per 9 over 221.2 innings which is way up from the 7.83 we've seen in his career. Anything over 9 k/9 is generally #1 starter stuff and 10 k/9 tends to get you in cy young talk. Frankly I'm not certain the A's would actually deal him given he's still ridiculously cheap for them but if he's out there I'd probably go for him before anyone else. I think he'd likely cost close to Archer's price just because of team control but I think he'd cost less. I don't see Philly moving Nola given they aren't exactly a small market team. Fulmer if it wasn't a crazy price I could probably live with. But on Stroman... I mean he'd have to be pretty cheap for me to be happy about acquiring him. And when I say pretty cheap I wouldn't give up any of the main headline pieces people talk about. I'd be ok with something like Alzolay + 2 lower level prospects which would never get a deal done.

Huh. I'm gna be honest I'm basing being interested in Stroman strickly on watching the WBC and a handful of MLB games I've seen him pitch. From what I've seen he seemed good, but ur points seem reasonable. I'll agree his size worried me too, with his stuff I would have figured he had better K numbers tho.

I've seen Manea pitch once and he looked good, So based off what you said, I'd be down for him. I know everyone loves Archer, but lately when Ive seen him pitch I havent been that impressed. Seems like he relies too much on one pitch, and just didn't look that dominating to me. Plus he has a small frame too and is quiteky racking up innings on that arm.

I gta say its interesting getting ur insight on players tho.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

I am still not buying that the Cubs are gonna trade from the big league roster. THeir coaching staff changes indicate they want to build up their current starters to be better.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Stroman isn't someone I particularly want. He's like a worse version of Hendricks in my eyes. On the surface that doesn't sound that bad because when Hendricks is on he's been a cy young type guy. But if you look at the numbers the difference between Stroman and a ground ball #4/5 starter like say mike leake isn't much. Stroman had a 7.34 k/9 and a 2.78 bb/9 this year. Leake had 6.29 k/9 and a 1.79 bb/9. If Stroman loses anything off his stuff in the coming years he's going to be in trouble. And at 5-8 180 lbs it's not like he's going to ever add to his fastball speed by putting on more size.

For similar reasons I'm also not that into Michael Fulmer though at least with him you're looking at a guy who's 6-3 210. Of the names currently being rumored as "available" I like Aaron Nola, Archer(obviously), and Sean Manaea. Manaea in particular I think has way more upside than we've seen in the majors. In the minors he struck out 10.8 per 9 over 221.2 innings which is way up from the 7.83 we've seen in his career. Anything over 9 k/9 is generally #1 starter stuff and 10 k/9 tends to get you in cy young talk. Frankly I'm not certain the A's would actually deal him given he's still ridiculously cheap for them but if he's out there I'd probably go for him before anyone else. I think he'd likely cost close to Archer's price just because of team control but I think he'd cost less. I don't see Philly moving Nola given they aren't exactly a small market team. Fulmer if it wasn't a crazy price I could probably live with. But on Stroman... I mean he'd have to be pretty cheap for me to be happy about acquiring him. And when I say pretty cheap I wouldn't give up any of the main headline pieces people talk about. I'd be ok with something like Alzolay + 2 lower level prospects which would never get a deal done.

Marcus Stroman is a power pitcher with a 95-96 mph fastball with 86 mph curve. Comparing him to Hendricks makes very little sense. Who gives a crap if he can add more velo than that?

 

[Parade_Rain]

Huh. I'm gna be honest I'm basing being interested in Stroman strickly on watching the WBC and a handful of MLB games I've seen him pitch. From what I've seen he seemed good, but ur points seem reasonable. I'll agree his size worried me too, with his stuff I would have figured he had better K numbers tho.

I've seen Manea pitch once and he looked good, So based off what you said, I'd be down for him. I know everyone loves Archer, but lately when Ive seen him pitch I havent been that impressed. Seems like he relies too much on one pitch, and just didn't look that dominating to me. Plus he has a small frame too and is quiteky racking up innings on that arm.

I gta say its interesting getting ur insight on players tho.

Please explain why Marcus Stroman's more than healthy weight (180) for a 5'8" male is worrisome. It isn't.

 

[beckdawg]

Marcus Stroman is a power pitcher with a 95-96 mph fastball with 86 mph curve. Comparing him to Hendricks makes very little sense. Who gives a crap if he can add more velo than that?

The point I was making was that his stuff isn't swing and miss stuff. He's more pitch to ground ball stuff similar to hendricks. Obviously Hendricks isn't throwing mid 90's but the effect is the same. The worry I have with regard to stroman is if he loses velocity does that excellent ground ball rate he has become a higher fly ball/HR rate? I think it's a legitimate question frankly and given he's only 5-8 I think it's also fair to question his durability long term.

Also for what it's worth, if you like Stroman I mean more power to you. All I'm saying here is if I'm gambling on trading a prospect package it's likely going to take to get Stroman there's other guys I think are safer bets who have higher upside.

 

[Parade_Rain]

The point I was making was that his stuff isn't swing and miss stuff. He's more pitch to ground ball stuff similar to hendricks. Obviously Hendricks isn't throwing mid 90's but the effect is the same. The worry I have with regard to stroman is if he loses velocity does that excellent ground ball rate he has become a higher fly ball/HR rate? I think it's a legitimate question frankly and given he's only 5-8 I think it's also fair to question his durability long term.

5'8" has jack shit to do with durability. The myth of needing pitchers over 6' regards downward angle.