What Theo needs to do in 2018

[beckdawg]

5'8" has jack shit to do with durability. The myth of needing pitchers over 6' regards downward angle.

Call it a myth if you like but there's not many starers in the majors under 5-10. And more to the point, there's not many elite starters who are under 6-3. Like I said in my edited posted above if you like Stroman more power to you but I really don't see much more upside in him. I think he's a good #3 generally and #2 on good days but not a guy you want taking the mound in game 1 of a series. And if that's what you're paying for prospect wise then ok maybe he's intriguing but Toronto isn't going to market him that way. They would market him in the Q/Sale level which he's frankly not proven to be at. If I'm paying that sort of cost I want someone who has more upside than Stroman.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Call it a myth if you like but there's not many starers in the majors under 5-10. And more to the point, there's not many elite starters who are under 6-3. Like I said in my edited posted above if you like Stroman more power to you but I really don't see much more upside in him. I think he's a good #3 generally and #2 on good days but not a guy you want taking the mound in game 1 of a series. And if that's what you're paying for prospect wise then ok maybe he's intriguing but Toronto isn't going to market him that way. They would market him in the Q/Sale level which he's frankly not proven to be at. If I'm paying that sort of cost I want someone who has more upside than Stroman.

For someone who usually presents good arguments and posts, you should know the old saying that rings true to scouting/drafting. "If you're small you have to prove you can play. If you're big, you have to prove you can't". Stroman has proven he can.

 

[beckdawg]

For someone who usually presents good arguments and posts, you should know the old saying that rings true to scouting/drafting. "If you're small you have to prove you can play. If you're big, you have to prove you can't". Stroman has proven he can.

We'll look there's any number of reasons that could be the explanation as to why there's not more 5-8 starters in the league. If you want to call BS on durability fine. Only reason I even brought it up was because as you well know from my post I follow prospect stuff quite a bit and that was the general knock on him coming up through the minors/draft.... does his body hold up over the long haul? It's entirely fair to say he's here now and at any point a pitcher could get hurt. And if that's your stance then fine. I'm not really that caught up in this line of argument.

My main point is the player Stroman is today is ok and probably approaching pretty good but he's not amazing. And my worry about him is more about what happens if he loses anything. The average K rate among MLB starters is 20.6%. Stroman on his career is 19.7%. The average walk rate is 8.1%. Stroman is at 6.5%. Average HR/FB is 14.2%. Stroman the past 2 seasons has been at 16.5% and 17.8%. Average strand rate is at 72.1%. Stroman in his best year this year was at 78.1%. Simply put he's a decent control guy who throws a ridiculous amount of ground balls but who's below average in terms of K's and who gives up a lot of HR's when he does throw fly balls.

I think my earlier comparison of a better version of Mike Leake is fair. Both are on the smaller side(leake's 5-10). Both are heavy ground ball guys. Stroman's closer to league average on K's(Leake's at 16.2% on his career) but Leake's got better command(5.6%) and is better at keeping balls in the park(13.6% HR/FB). Thing is no one is falling over themselves to have Mike Leake and I think it's prudent that you should take the same approach on Stroman. If he stays healthy I imagine he'll be a good mid rotation pitcher like Leake has been and if you want to argue he'll be a little better I'll concede that argument. But I don't see Stroman as any kind of game changer. He just doesn't excite me at all and if you're paying the price teams have for starting pitching in trades it's hard for me to get behind him. I think 2017 was the best version of Stroman you're gonna see and if he stays that way great but it also wouldn't shock me if his numbers dip closer to his career 3.57 FIP.

I suppose it all comes down to price but as I have said I think there are other players who have higher upsides for similar prices that will be available. If I'm wrong and he can be had cheaply then by all means do what you gotta do. But I certainly wouldn't give up a package anywhere close to what the Q trade was for Stroman. And honestly I'm not really sure from a numbers stand point he'd be much better than some of the guys the cubs already have. For example, I think Tseng could be pretty close to Mike Leake which is likely a lessor version of Stroman but he's already in the system. And Ryan Williams(if he comes back healthy) and Alex Mills are also similar pitchers with average-ish k rates and good round ball rates(though admittedly Stroman isn't just good with GB% he's elite).

Long story short, if I'm making a trade for pitching I want someone who at the very least has the potential to be a game changer and I don't see that in Stroman.

 

[CSF77]

We'll look there's any number of reasons that could be the explanation as to why there's not more 5-8 starters in the league. If you want to call BS on durability fine. Only reason I even brought it up was because as you well know from my post I follow prospect stuff quite a bit and that was the general knock on him coming up through the minors/draft.... does his body hold up over the long haul? It's entirely fair to say he's here now and at any point a pitcher could get hurt. And if that's your stance then fine. I'm not really that caught up in this line of argument.

My main point is the player Stroman is today is ok and probably approaching pretty good but he's not amazing. And my worry about him is more about what happens if he loses anything. The average K rate among MLB starters is 20.6%. Stroman on his career is 19.7%. The average walk rate is 8.1%. Stroman is at 6.5%. Average HR/FB is 14.2%. Stroman the past 2 seasons has been at 16.5% and 17.8%. Average strand rate is at 72.1%. Stroman in his best year this year was at 78.1%. Simply put he's a decent control guy who throws a ridiculous amount of ground balls but who's below average in terms of K's and who gives up a lot of HR's when he does throw fly balls.

I think my earlier comparison of a better version of Mike Leake is fair. Both are on the smaller side(leake's 5-10). Both are heavy ground ball guys. Stroman's closer to league average on K's(Leake's at 16.2% on his career) but Leake's got better command(5.6%) and is better at keeping balls in the park(13.6% HR/FB). Thing is no one is falling over themselves to have Mike Leake and I think it's prudent that you should take the same approach on Stroman. If he stays healthy I imagine he'll be a good mid rotation pitcher like Leake has been and if you want to argue he'll be a little better I'll concede that argument. But I don't see Stroman as any kind of game changer. He just doesn't excite me at all and if you're paying the price teams have for starting pitching in trades it's hard for me to get behind him. I think 2017 was the best version of Stroman you're gonna see and if he stays that way great but it also wouldn't shock me if his numbers dip closer to his career 3.57 FIP.

I suppose it all comes down to price but as I have said I think there are other players who have higher upsides for similar prices that will be available. If I'm wrong and he can be had cheaply then by all means do what you gotta do. But I certainly wouldn't give up a package anywhere close to what the Q trade was for Stroman. And honestly I'm not really sure from a numbers stand point he'd be much better than some of the guys the cubs already have. For example, I think Tseng could be pretty close to Mike Leake which is likely a lessor version of Stroman but he's already in the system. And Ryan Williams(if he comes back healthy) and Alex Mills are also similar pitchers with average-ish k rates and good round ball rates(though admittedly Stroman isn't just good with GB% he's elite).

Long story short, if I'm making a trade for pitching I want someone who at the very least has the potential to be a game changer and I don't see that in Stroman.

I’m not sure if the Jay’s market him anyways. They have a contending quality team and they have far better trade chips if they look to retool.

IMO the whole Stroman thing is kinda far fetched and honestly one sided

 

[Parade_Rain]

I’m not sure if the Jay’s market him anyways. They have a contending quality team and they have far better trade chips if they look to retool.

IMO the whole Stroman thing is kinda far fetched and honestly one sided

I don't believe Stroman is really on the market. I'm just not going to let people say stupid stuff about him because he isn't close to 6'.

 

[DanTown]

How is Dee Gordon an upgrade over Baez?

They’re very similar players in terms of value potentially but Gordon solves a potential issue with the lead off spot that Javy doesn’t as well as gives an added dimension with elite speed at the top of the order. He also helps reduce your strikeouts and is a good defender.

 

[Iceman2385]

I am still not buying that the Cubs are gonna trade from the big league roster. THeir coaching staff changes indicate they want to build up their current starters to be better.

I think the coaching decisions mean nothing interms of a possible trade. I think the Cubs will make a trade, it's the correct course of action given r lack of pitching depth and gluttony of position players.

 

[chibears55]

I am still not buying that the Cubs are gonna trade from the big league roster. THeir coaching staff changes indicate they want to build up their current starters to be better.

If the cubs plan on winning another division title and WS, they need to fix their bullpen and strengthen the rotation...

They need a starter at TOR to help Lester out...
Quintana and Hendricks right now are solid MOR guys...

They can either take their chances at 5 with Tseng or Mills, or allow them to continue to develop and be depth, and sign a guy for the 5 hole..

But to the point...
Only way their getting a TOR type starter this off season is via trade..
That means at least one of their MLB position player getting moved


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[CSF77]

Lester had his worst BB season. Ended with shoulder fatigue and was on the DL for the first time sense 2011. To think age is not starting to set in would be folly.

Q is TOR. 21.7 WAR over 5 season is a 4.34 WAR per year. He was the #14 SP in WAR this year. From 2015 to present he is ranked #6 behind Kershaw, Sale, Scherzer, Kluber, Arrieta. He is in elite company.

Archer is the right move to make for sure but Q is a staff ace. He just has been in the shadow of a generational talent and now has an opportunity to stand out.

If it wasn't for age/cost Jake would be even better. But Q has gotten near Jakes production in that span. The top 4 are in their own realm. 6 WAR plus pitchers.

 

[Iceman2385]

Personally I see Q, Lester, and Hendricks as 2s not aces but very good. Bc we lack the elite starter I think the best way we can make up for that in the playoffs is having 4 strong starters. We had that this year, didn't work out but SP wasn't the reason we lost. I think we need to replace Jake and maybe get another strong starter in case of injury or bad performance.,

 

[Iceman2385]

Lester had his worst BB season. Ended with shoulder fatigue and was on the DL for the first time sense 2011. To think age is not starting to set in would be folly.

Q is TOR. 21.7 WAR over 5 season is a 4.34 WAR per year. He was the #14 SP in WAR this year. From 2015 to present he is ranked #6 behind Kershaw, Sale, Scherzer, Kluber, Arrieta. He is in elite company.

Archer is the right move to make for sure but Q is a staff ace. He just has been in the shadow of a generational talent and now has an opportunity to stand out.

If it wasn't for age/cost Jake would be even better. But Q has gotten near Jakes production in that span. The top 4 are in their own realm. 6 WAR plus pitchers.

I'd be happy if we got Archer if we gave up Baez+. If it takes Schwarbs and Happ or addy+ i would pass on archer. I'm not a scout and I've only watched him pitch a couple times last year, but he just didn't seem that dominating to me. He seemed to rely on his slider too much. I dno tho.

 

[beckdawg]

Personally I see Q, Lester, and Hendricks as 2s not aces but very good. Bc we lack the elite starter I think the best way we can make up for that in the playoffs is having 4 strong starters. We had that this year, didn't work out but SP wasn't the reason we lost. I think we need to replace Jake and maybe get another strong starter in case of injury or bad performance.,

Think this is a pretty accurate assessment though I'd add I want to see how Lester comes into 2018. Obviously a long playoffs hurt the team. I think you could argue he pitched closer to a #3 last year. It could be that he's just older and declining or it could just be that it was wear from 2016 and he goes back to 2016 cy young levels. I think Kyle is clearly more than a 3 as some have suggested. He was basically 2016 kyle in the second half and dominated game one of the NLDS. But I don't like talking about ace's who don't have top tier stuff. So I think #2 is accurate representation of him. On Q, he's hard to read. He flat out dominated in some games and in others he was hit or miss. I'm wondering how much Boz had to do with that since that was part of the rumor of him leaving. When he's good he's basically what Lester has been in his career.

From my perspective you don't have to go out and get Archer. If you can great. But all I care about is getting someone with the potential to be an ace and someone already shown to be decent enough to be a 3/4.

 

[greg23]

Whatever we do just please don't sign yu darvish

Didn't want him to begin with and after his putrid performances in the ws I have even less interest.

Sign a guy to replace lackey as the #5 (haugh mentions cobb-lynn-etc) and consider a trade for a 1-3 type. Hate to give anyone up but my 1st choice would be happ.

If not, sign 2 4-5 type starters and the playoffs have shown (as has maddon managing) you need a bullpen in Oct as much or more than starters.

 

[Iceman2385]

Think this is a pretty accurate assessment though I'd add I want to see how Lester comes into 2018. Obviously a long playoffs hurt the team. I think you could argue he pitched closer to a #3 last year. It could be that he's just older and declining or it could just be that it was wear from 2016 and he goes back to 2016 cy young levels. I think Kyle is clearly more than a 3 as some have suggested. He was basically 2016 kyle in the second half and dominated game one of the NLDS. But I don't like talking about ace's who don't have top tier stuff. So I think #2 is accurate representation of him. On Q, he's hard to read. He flat out dominated in some games and in others he was hit or miss. I'm wondering how much Boz had to do with that since that was part of the rumor of him leaving. When he's good he's basically what Lester has been in his career.

From my perspective you don't have to go out and get Archer. If you can great. But all I care about is getting someone with the potential to be an ace and someone already shown to be decent enough to be a 3/4.

I agree Lester is a question mark. I'm hoping for a rebound season, but it's no garuantee. I'm confident if healthy he will be a 3-4 starter just w grit alone, but he still has high end 2 starter potential. When Lester is good, he's pounding the bottom of the zone consistently, I don't know why his command wasn't as good? W the eye test his velocity seemed a lil down last year, but mostly his issue was command. Hopefully he can fix it.

Overall Q had a rough year for his standards, he does remind me of a younger Lester tho. A lefty gritty reliable pitcher w solid stuff that relys on command. Q did struggle w the sox too, so it's hard for me to put that on Boz, but maybe he is partly to blame. This is just guessing, but maybe Boz preached not giving in too much, which led to nibbling and falling behind in the count. I would rather they trusted there stuff attacked the bottom of the zone w a quality pitch not the perfect pitch. I dno, obv easier said than done. I'm confident Q regains his form next year tho.

No reason to doubt Hendricks unless his velocity dips again. Overall 1-3 r SP is a solid place to start when building a good rotation.

I completely agree on getting a potential ace and a proven 3/4 guy. I think Cobb fits the 3/4 guy w a hint of upside. Then it's a matter of trading for someone. Can't wait to see what Theo does!

 

[beckdawg]

What do you guys think about keeping Rene Rivera on a cheap deal? The down side with him are that he is also RH and in that regard wouldn't exactly compliment Contreras. But he hit .341/.408/.591 in 50 PAs with the cubs which is a big departure from his .230/.278/.391 with the mets. Rivera was 36th in framing runs according to BP. The one ding on him defensively was he was below average blocking balls but overall he looks to have been a slightly above average C. He has pretty significant splits and you probably only play him vs LHP on days when Contreras needs a rest. But the thing is Contreras isn't really split prone. He has a 134 wRC+ vs LHP and a 118 wRC+ vs RHP. So, that limitation doesn't hurt you as much as it would with some players.

I think the counter argument is you just roll with Caratini but I'm a little unsure that you should put that much youth in at C. Plus you could end up with a situation where someone goes down and you're short on C. I suppose there's also Davis but he doesn't strike me as much more than depth. And it's also conceivable you might deal Caratini in a package for pitching.

Given you may be running out a young 5th starter I sort of like the idea of having some vet presence there to help that guy out. Plus given his overall stat line I can't imagine he cost more than a $2-3 mil

 

[beckdawg]

Whatever we do just please don't sign yu darvish.

Perhaps I just think different here but I see this as a reason to possibly consider him. If the belief is tonight's(and post season in general) performance lower his asking price I feel like he could turn out to be a good deal. I mean we're talking about a guy who has a career 3.42 ERA pitching most of his time in texas. His k rate on the year was over 10 per 9 and his walk rate was under 3. He simply got lit up by HRs. In 26.1 innings in the post season he's given up a 25.0% HR/FB rate. His career rate is 12.0%. The take away there is that's likely poor results and not necessarily indicative of him being bad overall. He also had a strand rate of 65.8% compared to 76.4% on his career. Those are the hallmarks of bad sequencing.

As I generally say it all comes down to price. I wouldn't give him 7 or 8 years. I'd consider 5-6 which he likely can get. If he approaches say 6 years $175 mil I'm at no point interested. But if he starts getting down in the 6 year $150 mil or less range I think he becomes a bargain.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Perhaps I just think different here but I see this as a reason to possibly consider him. If the belief is tonight's(and post season in general) performance lower his asking price I feel like he could turn out to be a good deal. I mean we're talking about a guy who has a career 3.42 ERA pitching most of his time in texas. His k rate on the year was over 10 per 9 and his walk rate was under 3. He simply got lit up by HRs. In 26.1 innings in the post season he's given up a 25.0% HR/FB rate. His career rate is 12.0%. The take away there is that's likely poor results and not necessarily indicative of him being bad overall. He also had a strand rate of 65.8% compared to 76.4% on his career. Those are the hallmarks of bad sequencing.

As I generally say it all comes down to price. I wouldn't give him 7 or 8 years. I'd consider 5-6 which he likely can get. If he approaches say 6 years $175 mil I'm at no point interested. But if he starts getting down in the 6 year $150 mil or less range I think he becomes a bargain.

MLB Radio was speculation today that he cost himself $60 million plus this series. Maybe from 6/$180 to 4/$100-$120. If it does get as low as the latter he becomes an attractive target.

 

[anotheridiot]

5'8" has jack shit to do with durability. The myth of needing pitchers over 6' regards downward angle.

Did you see George Springer when he was holding the trophy behind the ESPN baseball set with Rossy? He was about as tall as them sitting down and smaller in girth than all 4 of them. He is 6'3 240.

Anyway, any pitcher is over 6 feet tall standing on the mound. Lets not forget they will probably change the mound or the baseballs after this homerun record setting season and most pitchers ERA's going up around a run.

 

[CSF77]

I believe if they are shooting for a 100 mil range they target Tanaka. I honestly see Yu sticking on the west coast.

On Happ as a center point for Archer. Value wise he comes with 6 years I can see the trade weight.

Beck also mentioned Rivera and freeing up Cat. Now going with that thought TB has 3 catchers on their roster. All are honestly back up quality. So they do not need another backstop unless they see him as a starter and his bat might justify.

So looking at that. Happ and Cat add a pitching prospect then that might move the needle. Cubs really don’t need a strong bat back up catcher and Happ is a luxury with this depth going on.

 

[Parade_Rain]

MLB Radio was speculation today that he cost himself $60 million plus this series. Maybe from 6/$180 to 4/$100-$120. If it does get as low as the latter he becomes an attractive target.

Only $25-$30 mil per year? I feel really sorry for that guy.