What Theo needs to do in 2018

[Shawon0Meter]

Wow, I forgot the Cubs still have 2 more years of Zobrist. Could be ugly.

Thank goodness 2016 will make him forever worth every penny of whatever happens.

 

[CSF77]

What are you talking about control? Archer has more control than either hitter on the Cubs while being more productive (200 innings, sub 3.5 FIP) at a higher value position.

Also, baseball reference has him that low by Fangraphs doesn't so I have no idea why baseball reference has him that low but it makes no sense to say he was a two win pitcher. Even if you wanted to average out baseball reference and fangraphs, he'd be at 3 and that would be more normal. No one thinks Chris Archer is a two WAR pitcher.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/archech01.shtml

2018 29 Tampa Bay Rays $6,416,667
2019 30 Tampa Bay Rays $7,666,667
2020 31 Tampa Bay Rays *$9,000,000 $9M Team Option, $1.75M Buyout
2021 32 Tampa Bay Rays *$11,000,000 $11M Team Option, $250k Buyout
Earliest Free Agent: 2020

2013: 2.2 WAR
2014: 2.6 WAR
2015: 4.3 WAR
2016: 1.8 WAR
2017: 1.2 WAR

All I'm saying is he had 1 season over 3 WAR. That is it. We might be over evaluating him based off of this and are too wrapped up into his SO's. Stroman maybe a better option. Younger and a upward trend vs a dump.

You mentioned Q.

2013: 5.4
2014: 3.5
2015: 4.0
2016: 5.1
2017: 2.4 (combined)

It is not the same level of talent at all and he cost a top 20 and a top 90. And to be honest 2x the accumulated WAR in the same time frame.

2018 29 Chicago Cubs $8,850,000 $8.35m salary if not arbitration eligible after 2014 season
2019 30 Chicago Cubs *$10,500,000 $10.5M Team Option, $1M Buyout
2020 31 Chicago Cubs *$11,500,000 $11.5M Team Option, $1M Buyout
Earliest Free Agent: 2019

one extra year of control.

Now tell me that both are even close in sale value?

Now on control it is more about adding control and then freeing up more short term contract with that added depth to acquire more long term contract. I'm not bothering to look deep into it as I feel it is pointless.

 

[DanTown]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/archech01.shtml

2018 29 Tampa Bay Rays $6,416,667
2019 30 Tampa Bay Rays $7,666,667
2020 31 Tampa Bay Rays *$9,000,000 $9M Team Option, $1.75M Buyout
2021 32 Tampa Bay Rays *$11,000,000 $11M Team Option, $250k Buyout
Earliest Free Agent: 2020

Archer's next FA deal
2022

Schwarber FA
2022

Javier Baez
2022

Albert Almora
2023

But you're right, trading for Baez and Schwarber gets more control.

2013: 2.2 WAR
2014: 2.6 WAR
2015: 4.3 WAR
2016: 1.8 WAR
2017: 1.2 WAR

All I'm saying is he had 1 season over 3 WAR. That is it. We might be over evaluating him based off of this and are too wrapped up into his SO's. Stroman maybe a better option. Younger and a upward trend vs a dump.

Fangraphs WAR

2014 - 3.2
2015 - 5.2
2016 - 3.2
2017 - 4.6

Baseball Reference and Fangraphs value pitchers differently. Fangraphs values things like FIP and K/9 where as BB values ERA and actual runs allowed. Should I value BB (which only tells me what happened previously) or value Fangraphs (which tries to predict future/repeatable value)? Maybe I should try and average them as like a 3 WAR guy.

You mentioned Q.

2013: 5.4
2014: 3.5
2015: 4.0
2016: 5.1
2017: 2.4 (combined)

It is not the same level of talent at all and he cost a top 20 and a top 90. And to be honest 2x the accumulated WAR in the same time frame.

Same time frame

Q 2013 - 2017
Innings - 1003.1
ERA - 3.41
K/9 - 8.1
BB/9 - 2.4
K/BB - 3.4

Archer 2013 - 2017
IP - 937
ERA - 3.60
K/9 - 9.7
BB/9 - 2.9
K/BB - 3.33

You're right, it's clear that Q is TWICE the pitcher Archer has been.

one extra year of control.

It's an extra year at an insanely low price. 3/30 and 4/33 is a fairly large difference.

Now on control it is more about adding control and then freeing up more short term contract with that added depth to acquire more long term contract. I'm not bothering to look deep into it as I feel it is pointless.

It matters greatly what the Rays think they need in a trade and what the Cubs can offer, but you keep telling me that Baez and Schwarber (one guy who just had a sub .330 OBP, the other a guy who was sent to AAA in June) is the absolute best package that can get Chris Archer, who Fangraphs ranks over the past three years

WAR - 8th
FIP - 16th
IP - 5th

 

[chibears55]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/archech01.shtml


All I'm saying is he had 1 season over 3 WAR. That is it. We might be over evaluating him based off of this and are too wrapped up into his SO's. Stroman maybe a better option. Younger and a upward trend vs a dump.

Wait.. weren't you the one saying Schwarber and pitching prospects wasnt enough for him????

Now he (Archer) may be overvalued


Also...
I wont be pickey..
Id be happy with him or Stroman...



Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

 

[CSF77]

Wait.. weren't you the one saying Schwarber and pitching prospects wasnt enough for him????

Now he (Archer) may be overvalued


Also...
I wont be pickey..
Id be happy with him or Stroman...



Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

Once I started looking deeper into his WAR values I realized that he has deprecated over the last two years. I can’t blame the Rays as they have still been somewhat competitive. crosschecking Q who was also on a sub avg team it didn’t match up.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Once I started looking deeper into his WAR values I realized that he has deprecated over the last two years. I can’t blame the Rays as they have still been somewhat competitive. crosschecking Q who was also on a sub avg team it didn’t match up.

He was a 4.6 fWAR in 2017. By WAR it was his second best season.

 

[CSF77]

Archer's next FA deal
2022

Schwarber FA
2022

Javier Baez
2022

Albert Almora
2023

But you're right, trading for Baez and Schwarber gets more control.



Fangraphs WAR

2014 - 3.2
2015 - 5.2
2016 - 3.2
2017 - 4.6

Baseball Reference and Fangraphs value pitchers differently. Fangraphs values things like FIP and K/9 where as BB values ERA and actual runs allowed. Should I value BB (which only tells me what happened previously) or value Fangraphs (which tries to predict future/repeatable value)? Maybe I should try and average them as like a 3 WAR guy.




Same time frame

Q 2013 - 2017
Innings - 1003.1
ERA - 3.41
K/9 - 8.1
BB/9 - 2.4
K/BB - 3.4

Archer 2013 - 2017
IP - 937
ERA - 3.60
K/9 - 9.7
BB/9 - 2.9
K/BB - 3.33

You're right, it's clear that Q is TWICE the pitcher Archer has been.



It's an extra year at an insanely low price. 3/30 and 4/33 is a fairly large difference.



It matters greatly what the Rays think they need in a trade and what the Cubs can offer, but you keep telling me that Baez and Schwarber (one guy who just had a sub .330 OBP, the other a guy who was sent to AAA in June) is the absolute best package that can get Chris Archer, who Fangraphs ranks over the past three years

WAR - 8th
FIP - 16th
IP - 5th

Ignoratio Elenchi

If you did read what I said it was about taking on control so they can free up more short term control. That was it and I was not going to bother cross checking it. It wasn’t Archer’s control vs what was coming back at all.

Nice way of tossing back misdirection.

Archer vs Q I posted accumulated WAR. Which it is. 10.9 and 22+ is 2x the WAR. Nice way of misdirection.


Now posting the raw data and saying “but” the raw doesn’t reflect what the WAR shows is a fine argument but don’t try to say that the WAR value doesn’t exist.

If you want to turn this into a anti WAR argument find someone else. I really don’t care enough about that argument.

 

[DanTown]

Now posting the raw data and saying “but” the raw doesn’t reflect what the WAR shows is a fine argument but don’t try to say that the WAR value doesn’t exist.

If you want to turn this into a anti WAR argument find someone else. I really don’t care enough about that argument.

You quoted WAR but you quoted one site (BB) WAR and not another. According to Fangraphs since 2013

Q - 21.8
Archer - 17.4

I'm not telling you to not value WAR but you have a weird thing to quote BB for WAR when most people don't quote them for pitcher WAR because of their over dependence on not normalizing BABIP, especially on a year-to-year basis.

 

[CSF77]

You quoted WAR but you quoted one site (BB) WAR and not another. According to Fangraphs since 2013

Q - 21.8
Archer - 17.4

I'm not telling you to not value WAR but you have a weird thing to quote BB for WAR when most people don't quote them for pitcher WAR because of their over dependence on not normalizing BABIP, especially on a year-to-year basis.

I get what you are saying but now we are getting into if fangraphs is the Bible or not?

 

[CSF77]

Even then:

If Q was worth 22.? And Archer 17.? Over a 5 year span that avg out as Q as a 4+!pitcher and Archer as a 3.5ish. So at min we are seeing Q at least a half WAR more per year on a favorable site.

Then you have to look at control bought at the time of the acquisition. Q came with not 1 year less control. It was 4 months at the deadline.

After that you figure out equal value based off of the data given. Is 4 months of control worth the same as .5 WAR per year? I’m not sure on that but and again it is based off of favorable opinion.

And as far as future projections I do not believe a argument can be logically made there. That belongs with hocus pocus and tarot card readings vs any available data.

 

[CSF77]

From some numbers I looked at the Cubs bought around 14.53 WAR of control with Q if you go by his avg year. Archer would be worth 14 WAR if he continues to avg 3.5 WAR. So we are talking .5 WAR of the durations of control. Honestly pretty minor going by fangraphs info. Might add up to a top 10 prospect value and a fringe 100 type in reality.

Now I really don't know where Baez falls into the terms of value vs a prospect. As far as WAR is concerned using his last 2 years of 2.7 and 2.2. (now I like a 5 year spread better as it is far more accurate on future value) the avg is 2.45 WAR. Control 4 years so 9.8 WAR value bought. Again not going into future data because that is not a realistic assumption at this point. Just speculation and opinion.

Archer: 14 WAR Baez: 9.8 WAR So that buys off all but 4.2 potential WAR.

Now on a second chip: Alozay is not top 100. That is not going to move the dial much. Honestly the Rays have Brent Honeywell ready for next year so the lose little with Archer gone. Willy Adames is ready for the majors and a SS in the top 15 list of prospects. This could push Baez to 3B with Longora moving to 1B. Just a thought as Baez seemed to play 3B at his highest clip and has the bat for it. That would push Jake Bauers to the OF in that scenario.

Miller, Brad 2 years of control (.201 BA sucked)
Hechavarria, Adeiny is in A3. 1 year of control. (.257 BA)

Dickerson, Corey 2 years of control in LF
Souza, Steven: 3 years of control in RF.
Kiermaier, Kevin 5 more years of control

So honestly Duda is gone at 1B.
Logan Morrison gone at 1B so the void is there. They could address it with Jake Bauers. Adding Baez then would push him to 2B where he has no better.

So at the end of the day I see a real match up with Baez and the Rays. It would have to be pitching filling in the value missing. Losing Cobb and Archer would leave them at Odorizzi, Andriese, Pruitt, Snell, Honeywell. Honestly they need pitching more than anything in return. Alozay and Tseng might be the best return with Baez. Value is fringe but it gives another arm with Honeywell to compete for a job and live arm at the upper levels.

Edit: Almost forgot Faria with his ab strain. He seems like he would end up the de facto staff ace with Honeywell slotted at the 2. Odorizzi and Snell would make the top 4. Andriese would be the 5 then. So they could aim for a 2nd arm with higher upside at that point.

 

[brett05]

The problem is the Cubs stock pile is bare and other team scan offer a much better and more competitive offer.

 

[anotheridiot]

The problem is the Cubs stock pile is bare and other team scan offer a much better and more competitive offer.

Other teams can offer promise of prospects. Cubs can offer major league experience. Happs 162 game outlook is 35 home runs and 100 RBI's for a guy that does not have one every day spot and the guy he is replacing in Zobrist having 2 years left and "understandings" with Maddon on playing time.

 

[CSF77]

The problem is the Cubs stock pile is bare and other team scan offer a much better and more competitive offer.

I pretty much agree with you on this. Their biggest problem is the vacuum created with 1B Logan Morrison and DH Duda hitting F/A. So they have a few options going via AAA promotion at SS and 1B. They have a void at 2B.

Happ and Baez strait would work for them. Move Longoria to DH, Baez to 3B and Happ to 2B. Now it calls into question of too much value sent over. Happ's service time is at .142 so that is a full 6 years of control. Seeing how he put up a 1.8 in a short season we can speculate 2 WAR is a fair assumption on per year value. That is 12 WAR going over in control. Add to Baez's 9.8 it far exceeds Archer's 14 incoming WAR.

Even with the rising costs of pitching this deal might be too skewed towards the Rays.

 

[brett05]

Other teams can offer promise of prospects. Cubs can offer major league experience. Happs 162 game outlook is 35 home runs and 100 RBI's for a guy that does not have one every day spot and the guy he is replacing in Zobrist having 2 years left and "understandings" with Maddon on playing time.

And Happ is not landing you a young controllable proven arm.

 

[brett05]

I pretty much agree with you on this. Their biggest problem is the vacuum created with 1B Logan Morrison and DH Duda hitting F/A. So they have a few options going via AAA promotion at SS and 1B. They have a void at 2B.

Happ and Baez strait would work for them. Move Longoria to DH, Baez to 3B and Happ to 2B. Now it calls into question of too much value sent over. Happ's service time is at .142 so that is a full 6 years of control. Seeing how he put up a 1.8 in a short season we can speculate 2 WAR is a fair assumption on per year value. That is 12 WAR going over in control. Add to Baez's 9.8 it far exceeds Archer's 14 incoming WAR.

Even with the rising costs of pitching this deal might be too skewed towards the Rays.

I think if they move Archer, they want at least one if not two guys who have ceilings of superstars. That's not true of Baez or Happ.

That said, if they don't, I think that is the framework for a deal.

 

[Raskolnikov]

Man that window came crashing down.

As impressively as the re-build went up really.

 

[beckdawg]

The problem is the Cubs stock pile is bare and other team scan offer a much better and more competitive offer.

I was thinking about this the other day and I'm not so sure. To be fair I wildly fluctuate between agreeing with you and disagreeing depending on the day. Probably has a lot to do with the fact most of the top cubs prospects are pitchers and who the **** knows what a pitcher ends up being. But if we're talking positional players, Aramis Ademan hit .286/.365/.466 in A- as an 18 year old. That's a pretty legit bat for a glove first guy as he's supposed to be. He's maybe a year or two away from really making a big dent in prospect circles but that doesn't always matter. For example, when the rays traded Price they got Willy Adames who also was 18 and at A put up .278/.377/.433 numbers. Long story short here I think he's going to eventually be a top 50 prospect maybe cracking the top 25 though I doubt he approaches top 10.

I also wouldn't sell Caratini short on value. He's not going to be a headline piece but depending on the right trade he might be a decent secondary piece. He's not super high on prospect lists or anything but I think people undervalue catchers. There are so many bad catchers in baseball. Teams will often take guys who can't hit but are ok defensively just because the lack of options. So the fact that Caratini hits is a pretty intriguing option. Think he's also ok defensively too though not elite.

You put those two together with a couple of pitchers and that's a pretty reasonable deal. It's not a "OMG TAKE THIS NOW" over the top type offer but it's fair. For example, if you compare the Q trade with say Ademan, one of De La Cruz/Alzolay, Caratini and one or two other top 30 guys think you could argue the peak is in favor of Cease/Eloy but the depth in the secondary grouping is better. De La Cruz when healthy isn't far off Cease in terms of value. At the moment there's probably a pretty decent gap between Eloy and Ademan but given the year he had he may crack a top 100 list and he's definitely pointing upward.

 

[beckdawg]

Also don't forget the cubs are out of the IFA penalty box next july. So expect them to be adding some high profile talent soon.

 

[brett05]

I was thinking about this the other day and I'm not so sure. To be fair I wildly fluctuate between agreeing with you and disagreeing depending on the day. Probably has a lot to do with the fact most of the top cubs prospects are pitchers and who the **** knows what a pitcher ends up being. But if we're talking positional players, Aramis Ademan hit .286/.365/.466 in A- as an 18 year old. That's a pretty legit bat for a glove first guy as he's supposed to be. He's maybe a year or two away from really making a big dent in prospect circles but that doesn't always matter. For example, when the rays traded Price they got Willy Adames who also was 18 and at A put up .278/.377/.433 numbers. Long story short here I think he's going to eventually be a top 50 prospect maybe cracking the top 25 though I doubt he approaches top 10.

I also wouldn't sell Caratini short on value. He's not going to be a headline piece but depending on the right trade he might be a decent secondary piece. He's not super high on prospect lists or anything but I think people undervalue catchers. There are so many bad catchers in baseball. Teams will often take guys who can't hit but are ok defensively just because the lack of options. So the fact that Caratini hits is a pretty intriguing option. Think he's also ok defensively too though not elite.

You put those two together with a couple of pitchers and that's a pretty reasonable deal. It's not a "OMG TAKE THIS NOW" over the top type offer but it's fair. For example, if you compare the Q trade with say Ademan, one of De La Cruz/Alzolay, Caratini and one or two other top 30 guys think you could argue the peak is in favor of Cease/Eloy but the depth in the secondary grouping is better. De La Cruz when healthy isn't far off Cease in terms of value. At the moment there's probably a pretty decent gap between Eloy and Ademan but given the year he had he may crack a top 100 list and he's definitely pointing upward.

Well, even when we don't agree, I love reading you. For me, I get my Cubs baseball fix with your stuff.

ok, the issue is it would never have gotten Q IMO. Teams have these fringe guys all the time and eventually one or two move up. Which of those are is pretty much up in the air. So teams offer more of a sure thing in deals. Granted specs can never be sure things, but they've figured out a way to value them and give themselves the best chances to have those for sure things. That's why the Cubs offer for Q was probably fair for both sides if not an edge for the Cubs because of their Playoff Window that they are in and the pending loss of two starting pitchers.

Similarly the Rays are going to be looking for a deal close to what the White Sox got with Q. I mean they can ask for anything, but I think realistically they need two top ceiling guys coming their way and the Cubs aren't parting with Bryant, Rizzo, Contreras, Q. I'd even allow an argument to call Kyle Hendricks a top ceiling guy without any fight from me. That's the team core as well as the complete list of Top Ceiling guys that they have. Could a team want some of the smaller pieces? Absolutely, but I think the list of teams to get those impact ceiling types are quite a bit ahead of what the Cubs can offer right now.