What Theo needs to do in 2018

[TC in Mississippi]

It's really going to be interesting to see what the Dodgers do now because it will affect free agency and markets for some of the top guys both this year and next year. Before arb awards they have a salary commitment of $178 mil, with estimated arbitration increased that number goes to about $210 mil. that's over the luxury tax for the 5th year in a row which means that they are now in the maximum penalty of 50% (the formula is nuts). The threshold is $197 mil this year but it's difficult to see how the Dodgers get to that number or below. If they hit $237 mil they will be paying a 92% tax and their top draft pick will fall 10 places in the second round. While the money is concerning to their ownership the draft pick probably means more to Friedman and Zaidi. Now if they had won the WS the educated guess was that they would cut payroll to get under the $197, but with losing it you would think they're going to have to fill some holes in order to maintain their standing at the top of the NL. You would think Arrieta is out because he and the bullpen and utility guys alone would put them in that max penalty. Now you think they'll try for Ohtani who would be cheap, but if it's truly the package deal some suspect can they sell Darvish to their fanbase after his collapse in the World Series? To me the Dodgers are pretty much the key to the market this year.

 

[beckdawg]

MLB Radio was speculation today that he cost himself $60 million plus this series. Maybe from 6/$180 to 4/$100-$120. If it does get as low as the latter he becomes an attractive target.

I'm not sure he'd want to do a 4 year deal because getting a deal at 34 is going to be dicey. I think his side is going to want at least 5 and probably 6. If that's the price range he's at, I think he might sacrifice some yearly money for length of deal with perhaps an opt out in to give him some coverage. But like I said, if he approaches $25 mil a year or lower I'd start to be fairly interested.

 

[beckdawg]

It's really going to be interesting to see what the Dodgers do now because it will affect free agency and markets for some of the top guys both this year and next year. Before arb awards they have a salary commitment of $178 mil, with estimated arbitration increased that number goes to about $210 mil. that's over the luxury tax for the 5th year in a row which means that they are now in the maximum penalty of 50% (the formula is nuts). The threshold is $197 mil this year but it's difficult to see how the Dodgers get to that number or below. If they hit $237 mil they will be paying a 92% tax and their top draft pick will fall 10 places in the second round. While the money is concerning to their ownership the draft pick probably means more to Friedman and Zaidi. Now if they had won the WS the educated guess was that they would cut payroll to get under the $197, but with losing it you would think they're going to have to fill some holes in order to maintain their standing at the top of the NL. You would think Arrieta is out because he and the bullpen and utility guys alone would put them in that max penalty. Now you think they'll try for Ohtani who would be cheap, but if it's truly the package deal some suspect can they sell Darvish to their fanbase after his collapse in the World Series? To me the Dodgers are pretty much the key to the market this year.

Word is the new agreement between japan and mlb is possibly going to cost otani a shot this year. In theory they could let him sign under the old rules which would be interesting but supposedly the union would fight them on that because it would be giving a boat load of money to someone who would in theory go to minor leagues and they don't want that. They obviously want the money going to FA. What will be interesting is if we're in mid december and they still don't have an agreement. At that point I think you have to consider the possibility otani just doesn't come this year.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Word is the new agreement between japan and mlb is possibly going to cost otani a shot this year. In theory they could let him sign under the old rules which would be interesting but supposedly the union would fight them on that because it would be giving a boat load of money to someone who would in theory go to minor leagues and they don't want that. They obviously want the money going to FA. What will be interesting is if we're in mid december and they still don't have an agreement. At that point I think you have to consider the possibility otani just doesn't come this year.

Yeah, I saw that too. The MLBPA does not want him coming over at short money in the first place so it's a big complication. If he has to wait one year though maybe he'll wait the full two and get a boat load of money prior to 2020.

 

[anotheridiot]

Yeah, I saw that too. The MLBPA does not want him coming over at short money in the first place so it's a big complication. If he has to wait one year though maybe he'll wait the full two and get a boat load of money prior to 2020.

They should keep him from paying his country half his salary then.

 

[beckdawg]

I'm not sure he'd want to do a 4 year deal because getting a deal at 34 is going to be dicey. I think his side is going to want at least 5 and probably 6. If that's the price range he's at, I think he might sacrifice some yearly money for length of deal with perhaps an opt out in to give him some coverage. But like I said, if he approaches $25 mil a year or lower I'd start to be fairly interested.

Re: this

Brett from bleachernation is suggesting he sees the market as 6/$130 mil with no opt out that Cueto got. If that's the going rate I'm definitely in on Darvish.

 

[DanTown]

Darvish and Jake are similar to me in that 25 AAV up to six years if there is some protection in the final year (I.e Has to pitch at least 300 innings the final two years to guarantee it or 175 in the final year) is something I can live with long term. Then you look at a few reclamation type guys (Tyson Ross, Derek Holland, Clayton Richard) who won’t cost a lot and could be depth and potential bullpen arms. If all those guys flame out, going to Tseng as a five isn’t the worst thing either.

In the bullpen, I’d love to go after Morrow and McGee and then use them as kind of “co-closers” based on situation and the lineup you’re facing and where you are in the order.

Beck mentioned keeping Rivera and I think that’s a good use of him as a 40-50 game starter who provides solid defense and could start against below average pitching.

 

[CSF77]

Darvish and Jake are similar to me in that 25 AAV up to six years if there is some protection in the final year (I.e Has to pitch at least 300 innings the final two years to guarantee it or 175 in the final year) is something I can live with long term. Then you look at a few reclamation type guys (Tyson Ross, Derek Holland, Clayton Richard) who won’t cost a lot and could be depth and potential bullpen arms. If all those guys flame out, going to Tseng as a five isn’t the worst thing either.

In the bullpen, I’d love to go after Morrow and McGee and then use them as kind of “co-closers” based on situation and the lineup you’re facing and where you are in the order.

Beck mentioned keeping Rivera and I think that’s a good use of him as a 40-50 game starter who provides solid defense and could start against below average pitching.

Only way retain Rivera is due to adding trade weight for SP.

Honestly I just do not see them getting into a large contract even at 6/130. If they were going there then why not retain Jake?

So I do believe it will end up a TOR like Archer and most likely a 1 year rental type with the upcoming pitching depth. Even then starting with Tseng or Mills is a acceptable situation

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Only way retain Rivera is due to adding trade weight for SP.

Honestly I just do not see them getting into a large contract even at 6/130. If they were going there then why not retain Jake?

So I do believe it will end up a TOR like Archer and most likely a 1 year rental type with the upcoming pitching depth. Even then starting with Tseng or Mills is a acceptable situation

If Jake would sign for 6/$130 I'd sure give that some thought but he's going to get closer to 6/$175. Most people thought Darvish would get 6/$160 but after that World Series not so much. Which on it's face is kind of silly. The guy's a good pitcher.

 

[CSF77]

If Jake would sign for 6/$130 I'd sure give that some thought but he's going to get closer to 6/$175. Most people thought Darvish would get 6/$160 but after that World Series not so much. Which on it's face is kind of silly. The guy's a good pitcher.

I don’t think it is a issue of value vs controlling payroll for retention.

Just speculation in general: Trading for Archer (11 mil per?) then trading Schwarber to me signals that they are going to make a play on Harper.

If they deal Happ or Baez then I’m thinking that they are looking to retain Bryant and Russell and they are planning on a lock up mega deal.

Or they could be in a 1 year needsmode and will let the chips fall as they do. I could see that also and they are just playing with opertunity

So at this point things are just too vague to predict. I do believe Theo when he says we would “like to resign Davis and Arreta” but.... that tells me that they are under a budget and are looking at other avenues not shifting gears on F/A.

From what has been said: Like too but most likely not invest into F/A.

We are looking to trade excess depth for team needs.

Now that pretty much means Archer as a big target and Nola etc as smaller targets. Honestly Archer should be the main target.

Now Yu is a pipe dream. I honestly see him either at LAD/ LAA or SFG. I don’t even see the Cubs targeting him.

Now on a 2nd arm idk. If they get Archer then Cobb makes sense. Not sure on his market but I can’t see anything higher than Theo gave Hammel to return.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I don’t think it is a issue of value vs controlling payroll for retention.

Just speculation in general: Trading for Archer (11 mil per?) then trading Schwarber to me signals that they are going to make a play on Harper.

If they deal Happ or Baez then I’m thinking that they are looking to retain Bryant and Russell and they are planning on a lock up mega deal.

Or they could be in a 1 year needsmode and will let the chips fall as they do. I could see that also and they are just playing with opertunity

So at this point things are just too vague to predict. I do believe Theo when he says we would “like to resign Davis and Arreta” but.... that tells me that they are under a budget and are looking at other avenues not shifting gears on F/A.

From what has been said: Like too but most likely not invest into F/A.

We are looking to trade excess depth for team needs.

Now that pretty much means Archer as a big target and Nola etc as smaller targets. Honestly Archer should be the main target.

Now Yu is a pipe dream. I honestly see him either at LAD/ LAA or SFG. I don’t even see the Cubs targeting him.

Now on a 2nd arm idk. If they get Archer then Cobb makes sense. Not sure on his market but I can’t see anything higher than Theo gave Hammel to return.

Cobb is expected to get $60-$80 mil on a 3-4 year deal. Hammel made $9 mil with the Cubs.

 

[DanTown]

There’s money for Jake. If you got him at 25 a year, you’re taking a huge risk but he’s been a Cy Young winner/top of the rotation arm as little as 16 months ago. Unless you think 2015 was steroid or some other issue, I don’t feel the issue is there. Plus as a Boras guy, maybe it’s 6/150 but 30M if it’s deferred.

Trade Baez for Dee Gordon
Sign Rene Rivera
Sign Jake McGee, Brandon Morrow as bullpen arms
Deny arb on all your bullpen arms sans Wilson
Sign Tyson Ross, Clayton Richard, and Derek Holland as project guys who either make is starters or provide depth or get cut

Your rotation would look like

Lester
Jake
Q
Kyle
Ross/Holland/Richard/Tseng

Bullpen
McGee, Morrow, Edwards, Strop, Wilson, Maples, Richard/Ross, Camp standout

Hitters
C - Contreras, Rivera
IF - Rizzo, Bryant, Russell, Gordon, LaStella
OF - Schwarber, Happ, Zobrist, Almora, Heyward

 

[TC in Mississippi]

There’s money for Jake. If you got him at 25 a year, you’re taking a huge risk but he’s been a Cy Young winner/top of the rotation arm as little as 16 months ago. Unless you think 2015 was steroid or some other issue, I don’t feel the issue is there. Plus as a Boras guy, maybe it’s 6/150 but 30M if it’s deferred.

Trade Baez for Dee Gordon
Sign Rene Rivera
Sign Jake McGee, Brandon Morrow as bullpen arms
Deny arb on all your bullpen arms sans Wilson
Sign Tyson Ross, Clayton Richard, and Derek Holland as project guys who either make is starters or provide depth or get cut

Your rotation would look like

Lester
Jake
Q
Kyle
Ross/Holland/Richard/Tseng

Bullpen
McGee, Morrow, Edwards, Strop, Wilson, Maples, Richard/Ross, Camp standout

Hitters
C - Contreras, Rivera
IF - Rizzo, Bryant, Russell, Gordon, LaStella
OF - Schwarber, Happ, Zobrist, Almora, Heyward

I don't see Montgomery on your list. Would you really just let him go? I would not. He's has to be part of that team. I'd also re-sign Duensing. Plus that rotation is not good enough IMHO. I don't think Lester will be any more than a #3 from this point forward. I'm unsure on Jake. I've never liked the mechanics as guys who throw across their body always get hurt. He seems to have dodged the bullet so far but if you sign him to that deal and lose one of the first three years to injury it's a pretty bad contract.

 

[chibears55]

Alex Cobb and Wade Davis should be high priority now..

Then come winter meeting they can work on a trade to bring in a TOR type starter...

Work on strengthening the rest of the pen and establish their everyday position players...





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[CSF77]

Cobb is expected to get $60-$80 mil on a 3-4 year deal. Hammel made $9 mil with the Cubs.

I said I don’t expect a offer bigger than what they offered Hammel.

 

[chibears55]

What do you guys think about keeping Rene Rivera on a cheap deal? The down side with him are that he is also RH and in that regard wouldn't exactly compliment Contreras. But he hit .341/.408/.591 in 50 PAs with the cubs which is a big departure from his .230/.278/.391 with the mets. Rivera was 36th in framing runs according to BP. The one ding on him defensively was he was below average blocking balls but overall he looks to have been a slightly above average C. He has pretty significant splits and you probably only play him vs LHP on days when Contreras needs a rest. But the thing is Contreras isn't really split prone. He has a 134 wRC+ vs LHP and a 118 wRC+ vs RHP. So, that limitation doesn't hurt you as much as it would with some players.

I think the counter argument is you just roll with Caratini but I'm a little unsure that you should put that much youth in at C. Plus you could end up with a situation where someone goes down and you're short on C. I suppose there's also Davis but he doesn't strike me as much more than depth. And it's also conceivable you might deal Caratini in a package for pitching.

Given you may be running out a young 5th starter I sort of like the idea of having some vet presence there to help that guy out. Plus given his overall stat line I can't imagine he cost more than a $2-3 mil

I think theyll go with either Caratini or bringing Avila back...

Contreras has established himself as an everyday player, so the need for a high quality back up catcher isnt priority which is why i think they may just go with Caratini but if they can work out a friendly deal with Avila that would be great and then theyd have good depth there with Caratini and Taylor in minors...

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[TC in Mississippi]

I think theyll go with either Caratini or bringing Avila back...

Contreras has established himself as an everyday player, so the need for a high quality back up catcher isnt priority which is why i think they may just go with Caratini but if they can work out a friendly deal with Avila that would be great and then theyd have good depth there with Caratini and Taylor in minors...

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Someone is going to offer Avila a chance to start again, or at least a straight platoon. If Caratini doesn't go in a deal I'd bet that they find a defense first catcher to back up Willson or maybe an offensive lefty with the defensive guy on a minor league deal in Iowa.

 

[chibears55]

Someone is going to offer Avila a chance to start again, or at least a straight platoon. If Caratini doesn't go in a deal I'd bet that they find a defense first catcher to back up Willson or maybe an offensive lefty with the defensive guy on a minor league deal in Iowa.

Yea probably right with Avila with a starting job offer..

Barring using Caratini in a deal..
I just think with Contreras catching probably 4 of 5 games, they can just stick with Caratini who being a SH can also spell Rizzo at 1B on occasions..

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[anotheridiot]

I still can hope they find a pitcher to pair with Schwarber. I still think part of his hitting woes will go away with playing catcher

 

[CSF77]

Contreras/Caratini unless they plan on using Caratini in a deal.

It serves no purpose for him to rot in AAA. It is counter productive and lessens his trade value with age.

So he will either back up or be traded and that gague will be meet by interest by other GM’s. If he is viewed as a bat first avg glove and a team is looking at that you can expect some discussion. Not saying it will amount to much

But I’m balling him up with Candy in value. Lower ranked but higher demand position. He holds similar value