What Theo needs to do in 2018

[TC in Mississippi]

They don’t need depth. They have Montgomery, Butler and Tseng who have started on this team. Mills who started at KC and is still pretty much a 6 year control guy.

What they did last year was sign a cheep backfill with the intention of going into the deadline as a buyer for a controlled ToR with their trade chips. After that they went after another 1 year gap in Wilson looking at it as helping out this year and closer depth next. And if he excelled this year there wouldn’t have been this current situation.

So looking at the current situation: They need a TOR. And they are not going into a mega over it. That points to Archer and Nola as a back up

On a #5 starter. Honestly I would go with Montgomery unless Butler flat out steps up in S/T. Tseng I’m viewing as a long term.

The reason is simple: Apr rain outs. That creates days off in itself. Running 5 guys in Apr with the weather history in Chicago is kinda a luxury. They can get by with 4 and a spot starter as needed until they feel right by Tseng

I'm fine with Montgomery at 5 but Theo's remarks after the season seem to indicate that they like him a the 6th starter/swing man. I like Tseng too but if you're going to compete for a World Series you can't come out of the gate with a rookie starter at 5. I think starting last year with a huge question mark in Anderson at that spot was a huge mistake.

 

[CSF77]

I'm fine with Montgomery at 5 but Theo's remarks after the season seem to indicate that they like him a the 6th starter/swing man. I like Tseng too but if you're going to compete for a World Series you can't come out of the gate with a rookie starter at 5. I think starting last year with a huge question mark in Anderson at that spot was a huge mistake.

Maybe but low performance and the failed Schwarber experiment factored more. Arrieta, Lester, Hendricks and Lackey having crap 1st halves at the same time factored more than anything a #5 could have done.

 

[CSF77]

http://m.cubs.mlb.com/news/article/...-alzolay-has-no-1-potential/?topicId=27118368

Saw this piece and honestly it has the feel of this is our guy and we are gearing up for him.

 

[Iceman2385]

Beck I can't agree w the idea that we need to sign Davis to a 4/72 contract. 18 mil a yr for 4yrs to an older player wa injury history, that just seems too risky. I just hate the idea of shelling out big money to a reliever, the guy pitched 57 innings last year. No thanks. Id rather sign Shaw and Nesheck to 2 yr cheaper deals, and then trade for a Colome type. That's just me tho. I think it should be relatively easy to trade for a solid reliever right?

I hope Theo is more creative w r bullpen then just shelling out money to Davis. I do get ur point he is the only elitish reliever out there tho, which means his price may go up even higher then 4/72.

 

[Iceman2385]

Tanaka decides to not opt out

 

[beckdawg]

They don’t need depth. They have Montgomery, Butler and Tseng who have started on this team. Mills who started at KC and is still pretty much a 6 year control guy.

Every team needs depth. You list 7 guys there. What happens if 2 of them get hurt during spring training? What happens if none of the guys are effective during spring training? Teams are always going to over sign FA starters headed into the regular season. You may not think it's necessary but i guarantee it happens. They may go for a cheaper vet on a minor league deal that what I've suggested but they are going to sign some people.

 

[beckdawg]

Beck I can't agree w the idea that we need to sign Davis to a 4/72 contract. 18 mil a yr for 4yrs to an older player wa injury history, that just seems too risky. I just hate the idea of shelling out big money to a reliever, the guy pitched 57 innings last year. No thanks. Id rather sign Shaw and Nesheck to 2 yr cheaper deals, and then trade for a Colome type. That's just me tho. I think it should be relatively easy to trade for a solid reliever right?

I hope Theo is more creative w r bullpen then just shelling out money to Davis. I do get ur point he is the only elitish reliever out there tho, which means his price may go up even higher then 4/72.

Well I don't know that Davis gets 4/72. For example mlbtraderumors is predicting 4/60. I mainly used 4/72 because I can't see him getting more than that. Chapman got 5x17.2. Jansen got 5/80 which comes down to roughly 16 mil annually. So, $18 mil for Davis would seem to be best case scenario for him. He's older than Jansen and Chapman so wouldn't shock me if he was more in the $15-16 mil/year range which is right where 4/60 is.

As for going the cheaper route.. i mean look the dodgers bullpen won them the NLCS over the cubs. Their hitters got to the cubs relievers and the cubs couldn't touch LA's bullpen. Davis was the one guy the cubs had last year in the playoffs who was solid. I get the argument of not spending hefty money on relievers but my question is where else are you spending it? MLBtraderumors puts Shaw at 3/21 and Nescheck probably gets 1-2 at $6-7 as well. So sure effectively you're going 2 for 1 in this trade off. But I think it's important to look at where you go with the saved money. As I laid out it's realistic to believe the cubs can nab Davis even at $18 mil and basically any of the top 2 starters left in Arrieta/Darvish.

But what's the $5-10 mil you may save by not signing Davis actually get you? You're not going to sign both Arrieta and Darvish. The most likely place you'd spend that money is on a better #5 starter. But going for spending $8 mil there to $13-15 mil doesn't really change much. Pitchers in that range are likely CC Sabathia, Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn. CC maybe you only go 2 years on but Lynn and Cobb are going to want 4 years. And you create a situation where you are locked into guys for 3+ years when you have some young pitching coming up through your ranks.

So for my money if you're going to be spending the money I'd put it towards and elite reliever that you know shuts down the back end of a game. Certainly you want to add parts to complement that but I'd rather Davis and say Jaime Garcia(or young guys if they over perform) than Cobb/Shaw/Nescheck for the same money.

 

[anotheridiot]

Lets see if Davis really wants to stay. You remember everything that came out with Chapman about being overworked last post season. Yes, he went and got overworked by Girardi in new york too, but you gotta wonder if Maddon left some open wounds as he was getting pounded late.

 

[anotheridiot]

I'm fine with Montgomery at 5 but Theo's remarks after the season seem to indicate that they like him a the 6th starter/swing man. I like Tseng too but if you're going to compete for a World Series you can't come out of the gate with a rookie starter at 5. I think starting last year with a huge question mark in Anderson at that spot was a huge mistake.

What did you consider McCullers in Houston?

 

[Iceman2385]

Well I don't know that Davis gets 4/72. For example mlbtraderumors is predicting 4/60. I mainly used 4/72 because I can't see him getting more than that. Chapman got 5x17.2. Jansen got 5/80 which comes down to roughly 16 mil annually. So, $18 mil for Davis would seem to be best case scenario for him. He's older than Jansen and Chapman so wouldn't shock me if he was more in the $15-16 mil/year range which is right where 4/60 is.

As for going the cheaper route.. i mean look the dodgers bullpen won them the NLCS over the cubs. Their hitters got to the cubs relievers and the cubs couldn't touch LA's bullpen. Davis was the one guy the cubs had last year in the playoffs who was solid. I get the argument of not spending hefty money on relievers but my question is where else are you spending it? MLBtraderumors puts Shaw at 3/21 and Nescheck probably gets 1-2 at $6-7 as well. So sure effectively you're going 2 for 1 in this trade off. But I think it's important to look at where you go with the saved money. As I laid out it's realistic to believe the cubs can nab Davis even at $18 mil and basically any of the top 2 starters left in Arrieta/Darvish.

But what's the $5-10 mil you may save by not signing Davis actually get you? You're not going to sign both Arrieta and Darvish. The most likely place you'd spend that money is on a better #5 starter. But going for spending $8 mil there to $13-15 mil doesn't really change much. Pitchers in that range are likely CC Sabathia, Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn. CC maybe you only go 2 years on but Lynn and Cobb are going to want 4 years. And you create a situation where you are locked into guys for 3+ years when you have some young pitching coming up through your ranks.

So for my money if you're going to be spending the money I'd put it towards and elite reliever that you know shuts down the back end of a game. Certainly you want to add parts to complement that but I'd rather Davis and say Jaime Garcia(or young guys if they over perform) than Cobb/Shaw/Nescheck for the same money.

It's not all about year 1 in the contract. It saves you money in year 2-4 as well. I'd rather put my eggs in two baskets on shorter/cheaper deals than 4/60 for Wade. Or we could sign one lower tier BP guy and trade for a reliever. If we're only allowed to spend 150-190 mil a year sucks giving a reliever 15 mil, especially a reliever w his age and injury history. He didn't look healthy in the post season either.

In terms of Cobb I kinda like him but it also depends on how much money/years he gets. If he gets 4/60 I'd pass on him too.

 

[beckdawg]

It's not all about year 1 in the contract. It saves you money in year 2-4 as well. I'd rather put my eggs in two baskets on shorter/cheaper deals than 4/60 for Wade. Or we could sign one lower tier BP guy and trade for a reliever. If we're only allowed to spend 150-190 mil a year sucks giving a reliever 15 mil, especially a reliever w his age and injury history. He didn't look healthy in the post season either.

In terms of Cobb I kinda like him but it also depends on how much money/years he gets. If he gets 4/60 I'd pass on him too.

Suppose we just have differing opinions. I believe when you're a team with WS aspirations you want as much quality as you can get because guys like shaw and Nescheck you can probably get fairly cheaply at the deadline but guys like Davis are expensive to trade for. From my perspective the only reason i would consider not re-signing Davis is if you thought his heavy usage at the end of the season may impact him going forward a la Chapman.

 

[CSF77]

Think they may be on Minor honestly. He seems like a closer target

 

[DanTown]

I could live with Minor, his year in Kansas City was quite dynamic as a reliever. I'd love to get him or McGee from the left side and then Morrow or Reed from the right side and kind of have a flexible bullpen. I think that's a far better way to spend than to spend all on Davis and hope he maintains for all four years.

I get the value of "a closer" but I think it's far more valuable to have two good relievers from both sides unless you have a Kenley Jansen type arm. And Wade Davis in to his mid 30s is just paying for the idea of a save.

 

[CSF77]

They concider Holland and Davis top tier and Minor, Reed, Morrow as 2-3rd tier. We could be talking in the range of 4/30 honestly. He walked form a 10 mil so it might go north some. Splits: VS LH: .161/.228/.196 VS RH: .221/.281/.383

Honestly with those numbers he is not a split guy at all. He is a legit closer and would be worth the investment as his upside is there. At that point they would have to decide on a Set up tandem. Let Edwards and Maples fight it out from the Right side and Wilson be the left handed guy. Strop is pretty much the 8th inning guy and the loser adds into that depth. That leaves Montgomery in long relief. Thatr puts them at 6 guys and can still have room for a 2 inning guy to add to Montgomery's MR depth. Honestly that is where the investment should go not intro the 8th. Too many games are lost before the 7th just because a starter got his pitch count up and we see a drop in talent from the 5-7th innings.

 

[chibears55]

Suppose we just have differing opinions. I believe when you're a team with WS aspirations you want as much quality as you can get because guys like shaw and Nescheck you can probably get fairly cheaply at the deadline but guys like Davis are expensive to trade for. From my perspective the only reason i would consider not re-signing Davis is if you thought his heavy usage at the end of the season may impact him going forward a la Chapman.

Chapman ans Davis pitched 58 innings during regular season..

But

Big difference in post season where Chapman pitched 16 innings and Davis just 6..

Chapman innings especially in WS were all strenuous...

Davis also only pitched 43 innings in 2016 so he hasnt had a lot of innings ..

He 31, he been a lock down reliever the last 4 years, i hope theyll take their chances with him the next 4 yrs even at a cost..
Why roll the dice on a cheaper option and risk come deadline needing to add a closer and losing prospects etc..

If it about keeping that window open and winning these next 5+ yrs then lock down a closer...



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[Omeletpants]

The cubs are the 6-8th best team in baseball. Without a reliable closer they are fucked. Without Davis our chances are dramatically reduced

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

The cubs are the 6-8th best team in baseball. Without a reliable closer they are fucked. Without Davis our chances are dramatically reduced

Holy shit you’re still alive? I️ was at your memorial service. AIDS activist all over mourned your passing. I’m in disbelief.


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[DJMoore_is_fat]

I don’t see how Cobb or a non-Arrieta/Darvish fills a need here. He’s your four if you sign him but that top three is frankly not WS contending level and it’s not like you have high value TOR arms coming through the system. When the Cubs put this together the way they did (seeking out bats via the initial rebuild), there comes a time when you have to spend FA dollars or high level prospects for your pitching. They gave up Torres to get Chapman and thankfully they won that WS and they gave up Eloy/Cease to get Q.

IF the Cubs choose to not go that route, it would mean to me they’re saving money for Harper and if that’s the case, they should try and trade Heyward for usable depth, even if they have to eat 20-30 million of it.

Eat $20-30M to move JHey? Uhh, try doubling that - if not tripling that. Bleacher Nation said if he were a UFA, he’d get a 1-year/$10M deal right now.




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[Omeletpants]

Holy shit you’re still alive? I️ was at your memorial service. AIDS activist all over mourned your passing. I’m in disbelief.

The reports of my death wee greatly exaggerated

 

[anotheridiot]

Chapman ans Davis pitched 58 innings during regular season..

But

Big difference in post season where Chapman pitched 16 innings and Davis just 6..

Chapman innings especially in WS were all strenuous...

Davis also only pitched 43 innings in 2016 so he hasnt had a lot of innings ..

He 31, he been a lock down reliever the last 4 years, i hope theyll take their chances with him the next 4 yrs even at a cost..
Why roll the dice on a cheaper option and risk come deadline needing to add a closer and losing prospects etc..

If it about keeping that window open and winning these next 5+ yrs then lock down a closer...



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Its alot deeper though.

Joe over used Chapman and he got hit hard. When Davis was used for more than one inning, he got hit hard, gave up homeruns in both the ALCS and ALDS

That is the trend, get 60 some innings out of them during the year, then another 15 in the playoffs. When he closed for the Royals in 2015, he basically got 4 outs per save. If Joe will continue to try to get 6 out saves from him is does not look like he trends good that way.

The only indication we have that Theo will pay up was one simple drunken phrase, "The stones of Wade Davis".

I dont see why they change the philosophy of position player core and pay for pitching.

Even though Yu Darvish shit the bed in the world series, he is projected to come here. I guess we need to get to the playoffs.