What Theo needs to do in 2018

beckdawg

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The issue isn't MLB. They are willing to allow the old system posting fee of $20 mil for this one situation. It's the MLBPA that's saying no at this point, they feel the $20 mil is money teams would normally spend on other players, but from everything I've heard the last few days agent is going to be able to get them to bend as well. I bet it's resolved by the winter meetings. This guy is the big prize in FA and no matter who he signs with he'll be cheap and make everyone a lot of money. I still think the Cubs are a long shot but no matter I want to see this kid play.

Well sure it's MLBPA but i was sorta including MLBPA and MLB in the whole MLB vs NPB angle as surely if the MLBPA lets Otani post under the old rules they are getting something in return whatever that may be. As for when it's resolved, I'd be surprised if it finishes before the winter meetings. I would expect the earliest it finishes is during the meetings. As things stand there's a lot of procedural stuff going on between players and teams and I doubt it's at the forefront of anyone's agenda right now. Most of that stuff clears up around the winter meetings but to hammer something out would make sense if the various leadership got together there given it will be a hub of sorts. Plus, not much FA action will happen prior to the winter meetings. So whatever the PA will push for in compensation for the old rules likely gets discussed there in my view.
 

TC in Mississippi

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Well sure it's MLBPA but i was sorta including MLBPA and MLB in the whole MLB vs NPB angle as surely if the MLBPA lets Otani post under the old rules they are getting something in return whatever that may be. As for when it's resolved, I'd be surprised if it finishes before the winter meetings. I would expect the earliest it finishes is during the meetings. As things stand there's a lot of procedural stuff going on between players and teams and I doubt it's at the forefront of anyone's agenda right now. Most of that stuff clears up around the winter meetings but to hammer something out would make sense if the various leadership got together there given it will be a hub of sorts. Plus, not much FA action will happen prior to the winter meetings. So whatever the PA will push for in compensation for the old rules likely gets discussed there in my view.

In the conversation I was listening to last night their theory was that Ohtani was the #1 FA and that teams looking for frontline pitching especially, leaving his aside for a minute, would want to have a clear strategy going into the meetings. Their expectation was that this would be cleared up in teh GM meeting happening is a couple of weeks which often lay the ground for the winter meetings. That really made sense to me because he's an afterthought pitcher despite his cost. I guess we'll all see. I can't figure why the guy doesn't wait two years and get $200 mil plus to be honest.
 

beckdawg

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In the conversation I was listening to last night their theory was that Ohtani was the #1 FA and that teams looking for frontline pitching especially, leaving his aside for a minute, would want to have a clear strategy going into the meetings. Their expectation was that this would be cleared up in teh GM meeting happening is a couple of weeks which often lay the ground for the winter meetings. That really made sense to me because he's an afterthought pitcher despite his cost. I guess we'll all see. I can't figure why the guy doesn't wait two years and get $200 mil plus to be honest.

Well think it's more a case of how soon and how big he re-signs for. Like the thing is endorsements are likely there for NPB players but they aren't likely to be enormous. And I don't know for certain but I know with basketball players shoe deals are often enormous. Given he's an easy way to market toward japan and given his talent level you have to assume he'll make bank in endorsements. I don't think he's making much more than a few million in NPB either. So 2 years of that vs 2 years of whatever he gets here is likely an offset. From my perspective it becomes about how much he gets on the likely quick deal to buy out his arbitration. I think it's conceivable that in 2 years of endorsements he could recoup any money he would lose. Plus, it likely sets his contract structure up better for his second deal. I think he's what 23 right now? 7 years of that puts him at 30 when he'd be a FA vs 32. At 32 it's going to be difficult for him to get much more than 6-7 years. At 30 given you're likely buying into his prime it wouldn't shock me to see him get a 10 year deal after his first contract.
 

beckdawg

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Something I hadn't caught in yesterday's moves that bleachernation mentioned was the cubs outrighted Martin to AAA. That's interesting because it means they waived him, and no one claimed him which given his likely arbitration number wasn't going to happen. The reason that is now interesting is because it's now up to Martin as to whether he wants to stay with the cubs or elect free agency. I don't think there's going to be much market for him but it leaves the option of the cubs non-tendering him and re-signing him to a minor league deal. Given his great defense in CF if they could get his bat going he's a really intriguing guy headed into spring training especially when you're not stuck with him on the 40 man prior to the rule 5.
 

CSF77

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Something I hadn't caught in yesterday's moves that bleachernation mentioned was the cubs outrighted Martin to AAA. That's interesting because it means they waived him, and no one claimed him which given his likely arbitration number wasn't going to happen. The reason that is now interesting is because it's now up to Martin as to whether he wants to stay with the cubs or elect free agency. I don't think there's going to be much market for him but it leaves the option of the cubs non-tendering him and re-signing him to a minor league deal. Given his great defense in CF if they could get his bat going he's a really intriguing guy headed into spring training especially when you're not stuck with him on the 40 man prior to the rule 5.

Think I would rather offer Ichrio a minor league deal. You know what to expect with him.
 

beckdawg

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Think I would rather offer Ichrio a minor league deal. You know what to expect with him.

Why? The guy is 44 years old. There's no upside there. Why not go dig up ted williams at that rate?
 

DanTown

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It wouldn't shock me in an Archer deal to see an Almora for Kiermaier portion added to it. While Kiermaier is one of the premier CF in baseball, he's a lot of money compared to Almora

2018 - 8.1 v pre-arb
2019 - 10.1 v pre-arb
2020 - 11.1 v arb 1
2021 - 12.1 v arb 2
2022 - 13.1 (TO) v arb 3

Kiermaier has also struggled with injuries as he missed 50+ games both of the past two years and teams like Tampa Bay simply don't have the resources to have adequate depth in the 4th OF to cover that much missed time. I think the Rays and Cubs would admit KK is the superior player but the cost difference makes them close to the same value with Almora more likely to provide excess value (i.e would the Rays want a 3 WAR player at pre-arb prices or a 5 WAR player at 8-10 million)?

For the Cubs side, it's obvious that KK is one of if not the best defensive CF in baseball. If you are seriously trying to dump Heyward and paying a lot of money to do it then getting back a defensive CF like KK is obviously a need. He's not quite a leadoff guy but he gives you some flexibility lower middle of the lineup with some fairly decent speed on the bases to bat 5/6 or so.
 

DanTown

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If we assume the Cubs were to get Archer, I would imagine they go all-in for Bryce Harper. There's a lot of smoke there and the ability to sign a MVP level player in UFA from one of your competitors is likely worth it.
 

beckdawg

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It wouldn't shock me in an Archer deal to see an Almora for Kiermaier portion added to it. While Kiermaier is one of the premier CF in baseball, he's a lot of money compared to Almora

2018 - 8.1 v pre-arb
2019 - 10.1 v pre-arb
2020 - 11.1 v arb 1
2021 - 12.1 v arb 2
2022 - 13.1 (TO) v arb 3

Kiermaier has also struggled with injuries as he missed 50+ games both of the past two years and teams like Tampa Bay simply don't have the resources to have adequate depth in the 4th OF to cover that much missed time. I think the Rays and Cubs would admit KK is the superior player but the cost difference makes them close to the same value with Almora more likely to provide excess value (i.e would the Rays want a 3 WAR player at pre-arb prices or a 5 WAR player at 8-10 million)?

For the Cubs side, it's obvious that KK is one of if not the best defensive CF in baseball. If you are seriously trying to dump Heyward and paying a lot of money to do it then getting back a defensive CF like KK is obviously a need. He's not quite a leadoff guy but he gives you some flexibility lower middle of the lineup with some fairly decent speed on the bases to bat 5/6 or so.

I loosely get the idea but that seems incredibly unlikely to me. Moving that many big pieces in trade is a nightmare logistically. And it really doesn't make much sense from either side. If you're the Rays you're giving up by your own definition the "superior player" just to off load money. You're not getting better in that move. You're arguably getting worse. From the cubs perspective if they are effectively equal based on the difference in cost what are you getting out of the deal? Tampa would have to essentially value that offset of money enough to move some on whomever the second big player for Archer would be. For example, let's say that Archer for Baez straight up or with minor pieces that don't matter is fair and eventually where the teams would go for hypothetical sake. If you're the cubs why would you want to add KK and Almora to that deal? You're eating more money and getting nothing out of it. You'd almost certainly ask for less than Baez because you're taking on more money.

And more importantly if you're the Rays and just want to ditch KK's money why would you not try and deal him else where for actual good players? Like if the thought is Almora could take over for him in CF fine but you wouldn't deal KK to the cubs. You'd do Almora + whatever headline piece made sense for Archer and then you'd move KK to a third team for likely a starter or some other piece.
 

Hammer

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One (stupid) question, could Heyward & Zobrist (with 50-75% of the salary retained), plus Caratini and Alzolay, bring us Archer or Gerrit Cole SP type.

Or is the package consisted of Happ/Baez/Schwarber/Almora (one of those guys), Caratini, Alzolay (plus some hitting prospect) only viable option to get that much needed TOR pitcher via. trade.

Also, why is everyone so down on Cubs chances to get Otani.

And last, wouldn't the FA signing of Darvish/Arietta be better option then to clear the house (lose major league roster depth and all of the top prospects) for Archer SP type (i.e. rather questionable TOR).
 

beckdawg

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One (stupid) question, could Heyward & Zobrist (with 50-75% of the salary retained), plus Caratini and Alzolay, bring us Archer or Gerrit Cole TOR type.

Or is the package consisted of Happ/Baez/Schwarber (one of those guys), Caratini, Alzolay (plus some hitting prospect) only viable option to get that much needed TOR pitcher via. trade.

Also, why is everyone so down on Cubs chances to get Otani.

And last, wouldn't the FA signing of Darvish/Arietta be better option then to clear the house (lose major league roster depth and all of the top prospects) for Archer SP type (i.e. rather questionable TOR).

Heyward isn't bringing you anything of value really. Thing to think about when talking trades is the value of the contract/team control you have. I don't personally think Heyward's deal is as bad as most do but you're likely talking about the majority of people thinking they are underwater on it meaning his performance isn't worth the money you are paying him. General rule of thumb is roughly $8-9 mil per WAR(that tends to go up every year because of inflation). Next year Heyward's deal is a bit wacky as he's getting $29 mil if memory serves but if you use the 5 years after that you're in the $20-22 mil range meaning you expect him to be a 2.5 win player. Last year he was worth 0.9 fWAR. Year before that he was worth 1.5 fWAR. I'm not 100% convinced that 2017 number is right as fangraphs didn't like his defense anywhere near his career numbers but he seemed fine there to me and essentially what you expect him to be. Either way, with the way he's hit he's likely in that 1.5-2 win range meaning he's about $5 mil over priced.

On Zobrist, he's harder to value as last year could just be an aberration or time hitting him hard as he ages. Regardless, those players aren't getting you a top of the rotation pitcher unless it's something quirky like you deal those 2 to the Red Sox for David Price who also looks underwater on his contract. It's definitely not going to get you a young TOR pitcher.

As for the "only" way to get a TOR type if you're exclusively talking about Archer or Cole then yeah they basically would be the only way. You could in theory target guys who haven't established themselves to their prospect pedigree yet. For example, I suggested if the tigers were willing to be reasonable on someone like Daniel Norris I think that could be an interesting guy who wouldn't be insanely priced who might have top end talent you could develop.

On Otani, the reason people are down on Otani is because no one has a clue what he wants. He's arguably throwing away the chance to make $200 mil on his first MLB contract by instead coming this year and opting into a system which limits what international FA's can make. If he is put into the new IFA rules the cubs can only offer him $300k but it sounds like they may use the previous NPB/MLB agreement which would essentially be the cubs posting a $20 mil fee and then bidding on him like a normal FA.

On Darvish/Arrieta, depends on what your goal is. The reason people are talking about trading for Archer et al is because the thought is you're going to be giving Bryant a massive contract along with all the other young cubs soon. I don't think the idea is necessarily a bad one but it largely depends where the market goes with them. If they get 7 years $200 mil a la Price then that's likely way too expensive. But if Darvish gets a Cueto like 6/$120 mil or something below 6/$150 he's likely reasonable.

Edit: entirely missed the part about Salary relief on Heyward...oops. I'd still say no. Heyward if he were still considered the dynamic player he was coming into FA then maybe but as stands he's really not that interesting. Zobrist isn't really that interesting. He's a vet on a down year who's past his prime. Maybe good from a leadership aspect if you're a team that needs that but you're not trading an ace level pitcher unless you're getting pieces that resemble things you build a franchise around.
 

CSF77

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Why? The guy is 44 years old. There's no upside there. Why not go dig up ted williams at that rate?

Part time flex with Almora. It gives opertunity for Almora to play every day and places Ichrio into limited play. PR/4th OF tough RH with tough sliders.

Ichrio pretty much said he wants to play til he is 50 and minor league deals are what he will get.
 

CSF77

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Heyward isn't bringing you anything of value really. Thing to think about when talking trades is the value of the contract/team control you have. I don't personally think Heyward's deal is as bad as most do but you're likely talking about the majority of people thinking they are underwater on it meaning his performance isn't worth the money you are paying him. General rule of thumb is roughly $8-9 mil per WAR(that tends to go up every year because of inflation). Next year Heyward's deal is a bit wacky as he's getting $29 mil if memory serves but if you use the 5 years after that you're in the $20-22 mil range meaning you expect him to be a 2.5 win player. Last year he was worth 0.9 fWAR. Year before that he was worth 1.5 fWAR. I'm not 100% convinced that 2017 number is right as fangraphs didn't like his defense anywhere near his career numbers but he seemed fine there to me and essentially what you expect him to be. Either way, with the way he's hit he's likely in that 1.5-2 win range meaning he's about $5 mil over priced.

On Zobrist, he's harder to value as last year could just be an aberration or time hitting him hard as he ages. Regardless, those players aren't getting you a top of the rotation pitcher unless it's something quirky like you deal those 2 to the Red Sox for David Price who also looks underwater on his contract. It's definitely not going to get you a young TOR pitcher.

As for the "only" way to get a TOR type if you're exclusively talking about Archer or Cole then yeah they basically would be the only way. You could in theory target guys who haven't established themselves to their prospect pedigree yet. For example, I suggested if the tigers were willing to be reasonable on someone like Daniel Norris I think that could be an interesting guy who wouldn't be insanely priced who might have top end talent you could develop.

On Otani, the reason people are down on Otani is because no one has a clue what he wants. He's arguably throwing away the chance to make $200 mil on his first MLB contract by instead coming this year and opting into a system which limits what international FA's can make. If he is put into the new IFA rules the cubs can only offer him $300k but it sounds like they may use the previous NPB/MLB agreement which would essentially be the cubs posting a $20 mil fee and then bidding on him like a normal FA.

On Darvish/Arrieta, depends on what your goal is. The reason people are talking about trading for Archer et al is because the thought is you're going to be giving Bryant a massive contract along with all the other young cubs soon. I don't think the idea is necessarily a bad one but it largely depends where the market goes with them. If they get 7 years $200 mil a la Price then that's likely way too expensive. But if Darvish gets a Cueto like 6/$120 mil or something below 6/$150 he's likely reasonable.

Edit: entirely missed the part about Salary relief on Heyward...oops. I'd still say no. Heyward if he were still considered the dynamic player he was coming into FA then maybe but as stands he's really not that interesting. Zobrist isn't really that interesting. He's a vet on a down year who's past his prime. Maybe good from a leadership aspect if you're a team that needs that but you're not trading an ace level pitcher unless you're getting pieces that resemble things you build a franchise around.

The only deal I liked with Heyward was Kaplin’s SFG deal for Shark and Melncon. Sure Heyward’s deal gets better with time but it does address 2 issues in a experienced closer and a SP with control. Add to it both have pitched in the NL central privious.

Add to it it frees up RF. Now thinking creatively moving Bryant to RF and Baez to 3B. You still have Happ that can play RF if you do not want to risk Bryant but it opens up a full time gig for either Happ or Baez.
 

beckdawg

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Part time flex with Almora. It gives opertunity for Almora to play every day and places Ichrio into limited play. PR/4th OF tough RH with tough sliders.

Ichrio pretty much said he wants to play til he is 50 and minor league deals are what he will get.

He hit .255/.318/.332 last year for a wRC+ of 75 and only average in RF which is less demanding. Almora's weak split vs RHP he hit .271/.291/.420 for a wRC+ of 81. In other words, why would you even play Ichiro over Almora? Not to mention of the thought is "Ichiro is good at hitting RHP" that's just wrong. He hit .228/.294/.309 last year vs RHP. There's literally no reason to sign him.
 

DanTown

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I loosely get the idea but that seems incredibly unlikely to me. Moving that many big pieces in trade is a nightmare logistically. And it really doesn't make much sense from either side. If you're the Rays you're giving up by your own definition the "superior player" just to off load money. You're not getting better in that move. You're arguably getting worse. From the cubs perspective if they are effectively equal based on the difference in cost what are you getting out of the deal? Tampa would have to essentially value that offset of money enough to move some on whomever the second big player for Archer would be. For example, let's say that Archer for Baez straight up or with minor pieces that don't matter is fair and eventually where the teams would go for hypothetical sake. If you're the cubs why would you want to add KK and Almora to that deal? You're eating more money and getting nothing out of it. You'd almost certainly ask for less than Baez because you're taking on more money.

And more importantly if you're the Rays and just want to ditch KK's money why would you not try and deal him else where for actual good players? Like if the thought is Almora could take over for him in CF fine but you wouldn't deal KK to the cubs. You'd do Almora + whatever headline piece made sense for Archer and then you'd move KK to a third team for likely a starter or some other piece.

The argument for why Tampa Bay would do it is under the same argument as to why they trade Archer which is they trade a superior player but get a far more durable and cost efficient player. Yes, KK is a more ready and proven CF but he's been injured the past two years and his cost is a lot for a team like Tampa Bay (over 10% of their payroll) and there are not many high impact defensive CF with five years of cost control just sitting around waiting be to be traded. And Almora is former top prospect/high draft pick who has shown an ability to be a similar player in all regards as KK but at a fraction of the cost.

It would be weird for me to see the logic in the Rays trading Archer to try and win now but then not wanting to get 90-95% of KK at 10% of the cost; either they want high value and productive players (Archer, KK) or they want to get younger and hope to find lightning in a bottle.

ALSO, if you're trading Archer for prospects, there is the concession that you're hoping to win the 2020 AL (to pair with your youth) and not the 2018 AL so Almora likely fits that window far better and far cheaper.
 

CSF77

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He hit .255/.318/.332 last year for a wRC+ of 75 and only average in RF which is less demanding. Almora's weak split vs RHP he hit .271/.291/.420 for a wRC+ of 81. In other words, why would you even play Ichiro over Almora? Not to mention of the thought is "Ichiro is good at hitting RHP" that's just wrong. He hit .228/.294/.309 last year vs RHP. There's literally no reason to sign him.

He had limited playing time and did perform far better the year before. And talking a minor league deal? Honestly it is not even a 40 man spot
 

CSF77

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The argument for why Tampa Bay would do it is under the same argument as to why they trade Archer which is they trade a superior player but get a far more durable and cost efficient player. Yes, KK is a more ready and proven CF but he's been injured the past two years and his cost is a lot for a team like Tampa Bay (over 10% of their payroll) and there are not many high impact defensive CF with five years of cost control just sitting around waiting be to be traded. And Almora is former top prospect/high draft pick who has shown an ability to be a similar player in all regards as KK but at a fraction of the cost.

It would be weird for me to see the logic in the Rays trading Archer to try and win now but then not wanting to get 90-95% of KK at 10% of the cost; either they want high value and productive players (Archer, KK) or they want to get younger and hope to find lightning in a bottle.

ALSO, if you're trading Archer for prospects, there is the concession that you're hoping to win the 2020 AL (to pair with your youth) and not the 2018 AL so Almora likely fits that window far better and far cheaper.

They would not do that deal. He holds plus value to his contact. I see that as moving backwards as a team and only seen in fire sales.
 

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