What Theo needs to do in 2018

[CSF77]

Pujols signed that contract at age 32
Stanton 27 and entering his primes..
There also a team option on that last year, so if he does fall with age they can opt out at age 36..

So Stanton deal takes him through his early 30s, Pujols deal takes him pass 40.. not quite the same

Also..
Pujols average may have dropped but his power and RBIs are still up there



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The older you get your production falls. That is pretty much a fact.

26 29mil
27 25mil
28 25mil or 10mil buyout could end up a trainwreck in today's age.

 

[CSF77]

Weird:

John Lackey Intends To Pitch In 2018
By Steve Adams | November 7, 2017 at 7:02pm CDT

While there’s been speculation that veteran right-hander John Lackey could call it a career following the 2017 season, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reports (via Twitter) that Lackey has no plans to retire and intends to pitch in 2018.

The 39-year-old Lackey just wrapped up a two-year, $32MM contract with the Cubs. After a strong first season, the 15-year veteran took a step back in 2017, turning in a 4.59 ERA with an NL-high 36 home runs allowed in 170 innings. Lackey, though, delivered a solid 7.9 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9 with a 41.2 percent ground-ball rate. Though his velocity took a small step back, Lackey still averaged 90.9 mph on his heater.

While those numbers are the worst Lackey has posted since returning from Tommy John surgery in 2013, he remains a durable arm that can help to stabilize a club’s rotation. Lackey has averaged 30 starts and 193 innings per season dating back to that ’13 campaign, recording a 3.57 ERA in 964 1/3 regular-season innings and a 3.82 ERA in 66 postseason innings along the way.

Between his age and marginal results in the 2017 season with the Cubs, Lackey seems likely to command a one-year deal this offseason from a team in search of consistent innings. The Cubs stand to lose not only Lackey but also Jake Arrieta, so it’s possible that president Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer could express interest in bringing Lackey back at a more affordable rate. He should also garner interest from other contenders seeking to stabilize the back of the rotation. Veterans like R.A. Dickey ($8MM) and Bartolo Colon ($12MM) were able to lock in fairly sizable commitments on one-year pacts last winter, and Lackey could very well look to land a deal in the same range.



Damn it almost feels like they would give him a 1 year. His 2nd half stats kinda justify it. 7-3 with a 3.75 ERA. His first half sucked but he was dealing with plantar fasciitis.

He kinda fits the bill of a bridge player to get to Tseng and Alzolay.

 

[chibears55]

The older you get your production falls. That is pretty much a fact.

26 29mil
27 25mil
28 25mil or 10mil buyout could end up a trainwreck in today's age.

So you're saying they shouldnt extend Rizzo who will be 30 in 2 years
Or
extend Bryant pass his ARB years because he will be 30 when he can be a FA

Basically don't pay anyone good between the age 30 to 36..
Cause in your opinion theyll suck



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[Parade_Rain]

My guess was going to be Andre Dawson or Soriano.

How about Glenallen Hill or Dave Kingman?

 

[CSF77]

So you're saying they shouldnt extend Rizzo who will be 30 in 2 years
Or
extend Bryant pass his ARB years because he will be 30 when he can be a FA

Basically don't pay anyone good between the age 30 to 36..
Cause in your opinion theyll suck



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What are you talking about?

26:$29M, 27:$25M, 28:$25M club option ($10M buyout) is what I posted. He will be 36, 37, 38 those year and highly prone to injury and reduced production while soaking in 79 mil.

How is a 30 YO player even comparable?

Now if you are pulling a mega deal for Bryant pre F/A I'm not 100% sure if they would meet Boras' demands honestly. They might but I'm not sure. But inking a mega after his control ends is far less likely.

Rizzo honestly I doubt ever inks a mega deal. I see him pretty happy in the 20-25 mil range.

 

[CSF77]

How about Glenallen Hill or Dave Kingman?

[video=youtube_share;Xg17LkyLplg]https://youtu.be/Xg17LkyLplg[/video]

 

[CSF77]

[video=youtube_share;LEXp67Ki16I]https://youtu.be/LEXp67Ki16I[/video]

Love me some Sgt.

 

[DanTown]

Heyward for Shark/Melancon is such a “clearing decks for Harper” move that I’m excited. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Cubs had to add an arm (de la Cruz? Azolay?) but I’d probably be ok with that.

 

[chibears55]

What are you talking about?

26:$29M, 27:$25M, 28:$25M club option ($10M buyout) is what I posted. He will be 36, 37, 38 those year and highly prone to injury and reduced production while soaking in 79 mil.

How is a 30 YO player even comparable?

Now if you are pulling a mega deal for Bryant pre F/A I'm not 100% sure if they would meet Boras' demands honestly. They might but I'm not sure. But inking a mega after his control ends is far less likely.

Rizzo honestly I doubt ever inks a mega deal. I see him pretty happy in the 20-25 mil range.

First, im saying when rizzo and Bryant current situation ends , theyll be 30.
youre not good with resigning them or extending them to deals into their 30s, which would most likely take them to 36 37...

Second...
You're willing to pass up on a MVP caliber player these next 5 to 7 yrs with him between the age of 28 to 35 because of him being owed 29 and 25 mil in the last 2 yrs and 10 mil buyout in final year?

You definately will be in the minority there....


Seriously..come 2026 27 28
Paying someone 64 mil for 3 yrs then will probably be like paying someone 30 mil now for 3 yrs...

Come 2019 when cubs tv deals all end and they negotiate that new deal, tgey will make Billions off that deal...
So..
Payroll will be taking a comfortable rise for them come 2020 on..

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[CSF77]

First, im saying when rizzo and Bryant current situation ends , theyll be 30.
youre not good with resigning them or extending them to deals into their 30s, which would most likely take them to 36 37...

Second...
You're willing to pass up on a MVP caliber player these next 5 to 7 yrs with him between the age of 28 to 35 because of him being owed 29 and 25 mil in the last 2 yrs and 10 mil buyout in final year?

You definately will be in the minority there....


Seriously..come 2026 27 28
Paying someone 64 mil for 3 yrs then will probably be like paying someone 30 mil now for 3 yrs...

Come 2019 when cubs tv deals all end and they negotiate that new deal, tgey will make Billions off that deal...
So..
Payroll will be taking a comfortable rise for them come 2020 on..

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I'll play the game:

Bryant: F/A: 2022
Rizzo F/A: 2022 2021 opt year.21:$14.5M club option (or $2M buyout due 1/15/21)

So both are F/A in 2022. Rizzo age 32. Bryant age 30.

Out of the 2 Rizzo is on the short stick and would be looking at a deal in the 4 year range maybe avg 22.5 mil per. Bryant would be sitting on a 8 year deal and honestly I doubt Theo goes there. I'm not even sure if Theo and CO are in the front office at that point for that matter and they go with a fresh set of eyes and move in another direction. But for argument sake I would venture no with the history of the Ricketts. Nothing shows me that they will absorb a 300 mil contract.

 

[CSF77]

But for argument sake if Theo could negotiate with Boras this offseason and buy out his 4 years of arb and tack on 6 years to that deal and it came up around 250 mil I believe the ownership would green light it. Seeing how they could sit at 5 mil arb1 then 10 arb2 and 15 arb3 20 arb4 (50 mil) then 200 mil over 6 years (avg 33.3 mil per) puts him at the age of 36 and starting his decline and very wealthy.

 

[CSF77]

Heyward for Shark/Melancon is such a “clearing decks for Harper” move that I’m excited. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Cubs had to add an arm (de la Cruz? Azolay?) but I’d probably be ok with that.

Might be a tad early to buy a Harper Cubs jersey but I am not against it.

 

[chibears55]

I'll play the game:

Bryant: F/A: 2022
Rizzo F/A: 2022 2021 opt year.21:$14.5M club option (or $2M buyout due 1/15/21)

So both are F/A in 2022. Rizzo age 32. Bryant age 30.

Out of the 2 Rizzo is on the short stick and would be looking at a deal in the 4 year range maybe avg 22.5 mil per. Bryant would be sitting on a 8 year deal and honestly I doubt Theo goes there. I'm not even sure if Theo and CO are in the front office at that point for that matter and they go with a fresh set of eyes and move in another direction. But for argument sake I would venture no with the history of the Ricketts. Nothing shows me that they will absorb a 300 mil contract.

Look we can go round and round on this all day.. makes no difference

I just threw something out there that on paper could be a good deal for both teams but probably wont come close to happening....

So, no use to extending our opinions on it ...
We can just agree to disagree about wheather or not it would be worth it for a team that can afford a healthy payroll to take on Stanton contract even if his production tails off at the end if it because of what youre going to get for at least the first 5 to 6 yrs...

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[CSF77]

Look we can go round and round on this all day.. makes no difference

I just threw something out there that on paper could be a good deal for both teams but probably wont come close to happening....

So, no use to extending our opinions on it ...
We can just agree to disagree about wheather or not it would be worth it for a team that can afford a healthy payroll to take on Stanton contract even if his production tails off at the end if it because of what youre going to get for at least the first 5 to 6 yrs...

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Fair enough. I just feel that if you move Heyward you get what you are missing. Shark and Melencon replace Jake and Davis. The Cubs have the depth to min the loss of Heyward. It even opens up a door for Harper. Even that bit is a reach.

But if they do add on a mega it makes far more sense to use it to retain your Superstar vs lose him. Adding Stanton is just adding on a bad contract. If Harper is demanding 40 mil per I would pass on that also. 40 mil buys me a solid 2 and a 3 SP which goes far in the play offs.

 

[chibears55]

Fair enough. I just feel that if you move Heyward you get what you are missing. Shark and Melencon replace Jake and Davis. The Cubs have the depth to min the loss of Heyward. It even opens up a door for Harper. Even that bit is a reach.

But if they do add on a mega it makes far more sense to use it to retain your Superstar vs lose him. Adding Stanton is just adding on a bad contract. If Harper is demanding 40 mil per I would pass on that also. 40 mil buys me a solid 2 and a 3 SP which goes far in the play offs.

Samardzija and Melencon won't come anywhere near replacing what Arrieta and Davis gave the cubs..
adding those 2 would be pre 2015 cubs when they took on pitchers they hoped to trade at deadline...Flippers

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[Iceman2385]

I would never make that deal personally. Archer's best 2 years in terms of fWAR he's been at 5.2 and 4.6 in 2015 and this year respectively. And even if you prefer RA9-WAR to fWAR his best season was only 4.3 in 2015. Russell last year as a 22 year old was worth 3.9 fWAR. Obviously this past season was a disappointment but he was only 23. Bryant debuted at 23 to give an idea how young Russell is comparatively. Archer's good and all but Russell is probably as valuable if not more when you consider his projection via age to go up.

Honestly I think you put Bryant Rizzo and Contreras on tier 1 don't move players. I'd put Russell on tier 1.5 as a tick below that where you'd basically have to have the most insane deal ever to move him. I'd put Schwarber, Almora, Happ and Baez on tier 2 which would be guys I don't necessarily want to trade but would if the right deal made sense. Schwarber and Almora are guys I don't want to move. There's too much potential in Schwarber's bat for me to consider moving him. If we're talking about moving him to the Rays I think you'd have to include both Archer and Colome and I wouldn't move him with any of the pieces above as well as Albertos and Lange being off limits. If it were something like Schwarber Alzolay and some mid top 30 types to the Rays for Archer and Colome I could live with that even though I really like Schwarber's bat.

On Almora, I just don't think it makes sense to deal him because I think his trade value is far less than his actual playing value. He doesn't have a ridiculously high ceiling but the guy does all the right things and has been big in big situations. Plus good defenders in CF aren't easy to come by and there's a little upside in his bat still to be tapped if he can improve vs RHP.

On Happ/Baez, I think one of them is movable for obvious reasons. If both are viewed as having the same trade value I'd move Happ first but I'm not entirely sure teams will see it that way. I get Baez's appeal to people but I also think that's his appeal to other teams. So, I suspect they'd agree to exclude the guys above but would take a stand that Baez is the guy headlining any real trade for TOR type pitching.

I agree 100% on this entire post.

 

[TL1961]

The whole Baez / Happ thing seems so puzzling.

I like what Happ did in his rookie season, but average at best D with HRs snd a .250 average vs Javy’s GG-caliber D (this year’s snub notwithstanding)? Javy batted what .270+? And people never stop dogging him for K’s. Happ hit 20 points less and also K’s.

Both are good players. I just think Javy has a much higher ceiling.

 

[CSF77]

Samardzija and Melencon won't come anywhere near replacing what Arrieta and Davis gave the cubs..
adding those 2 would be pre 2015 cubs when they took on pitchers they hoped to trade at deadline...Flippers

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I agree to a degree. It would be a payroll shuffle which allows more room to add payroll vs staying the same which was not good enough.

 

[chibears55]

I agree to a degree. It would be a payroll shuffle which allows more room to add payroll vs staying the same which was not good enough.

They don't need to shuffle payroll and they wont be staying the same...

Adding a 34 YO Samardzija who an under .500 and over 4 ERA pitcher doesn't help your team..
just as bad as adding brett anderson

I agree to a degree. It would be a payroll shuffle which allows more room to add payroll vs staying the same which was not good enough.

I agree to a degree. It would be a payroll shuffle which allows more room to add payroll vs staying the same which was not good enough.

They don't need to shuffle payroll and they wont be staying the same...

Adding a 34 YO Samardzija who an under .500 and over 4 ERA pitcher doesn't help your team..
just as bad as adding brett anderson

Melancon gonna cost 20 mil for next 3 yrs age 34 to 36...

You prefer paying a reliever that money to see if he bounches back over a 27 YO MVP caliber player...[emoji16][emoji16][emoji16][emoji16]



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[brett05]

How about Glenallen Hill or Dave Kingman?

Promote the coach - Doug Dascenzo