What Theo needs to do in 2018

[beckdawg]

The argument for why Tampa Bay would do it is under the same argument as to why they trade Archer which is they trade a superior player but get a far more durable and cost efficient player. Yes, KK is a more ready and proven CF but he's been injured the past two years and his cost is a lot for a team like Tampa Bay (over 10% of their payroll) and there are not many high impact defensive CF with five years of cost control just sitting around waiting be to be traded. And Almora is former top prospect/high draft pick who has shown an ability to be a similar player in all regards as KK but at a fraction of the cost.

It would be weird for me to see the logic in the Rays trading Archer to try and win now but then not wanting to get 90-95% of KK at 10% of the cost; either they want high value and productive players (Archer, KK) or they want to get younger and hope to find lightning in a bottle.

ALSO, if you're trading Archer for prospects, there is the concession that you're hoping to win the 2020 AL (to pair with your youth) and not the 2018 AL so Almora likely fits that window far better and far cheaper.

I think you're missing my point. I'm not saying "why would the rays deal KK?" I'm saying why would they deal him to the cubs for only Almora. Maybe I'm not understanding you but the way I read what you're saying is they'd essentially tack Almora for KK onto the deal simply to lessen the money they have on their roster. I have no issue with the idea of them using a more cost effective Almora. My issue is that doesn't make sense for the cubs and tampa to make that deal. Like I said if you want to make the conversation Almora + headliner + whatever for Archer then fine. That makes sense to me. But KK to the cubs in that doesn't. The Rays almost certainly could make that cubs trade without KK and then deal him else where to fill other holes.

The largest issue I have is I frankly don't think Almora straight up even gets you KK. So, I don't think it would even be that simple. I think that is added value on the Rays side meaning the cubs would likely have to give up even more than what they would for Archer which in of itself is going to be astronomical.

And honestly I don't think the rays are even going to deal archer if i'm being honest. If I remember right they were really only looking to drop ~$10 mil and in which case I think them dealing Colome(likely $5.5M) and Odorizzi($6.5M and actually more expensive than Archer if the arb estimate is right) make far more sense. They can replace Odorizzi internally with Honeywell and use pieces acquired from the Colome/Odorizzi deal to replace Colome and Cobb.

 

[CSF77]

Odorizzi comes with 2 years of control. I don’t see them going there.

I would view it as a window. 2020 is their control window on Lester, Q and Hendricks. So on a 4th man you would expect similar control if not longer to promote future stability. 2 years makes sense if they have a TOR lock in the top 100 prospect list at AA this year. They don’t.

Even then they still have the 5 open.

Archer is honestly ideal. If Jake’s market forces him into a 4 year deal to stay home you have to go there. His value justifies that contract. Add to it he is only a year older minus TJS to Yu.

Or they could go out of the box and trade for Shark. Again not ideal but retains your hitting talent and remove the largest 4 to 3 in baseball

 

[beckdawg]

Odorizzi comes with 2 years of control. I don’t see them going there.

I never said the cubs would trade for Odorizzi. I said that's who the Rays will aim to trade. Whether or not Archer is ideal for the cubs is meaningless. Its what the Rays want to do that matters and if your a team that wants to compete next year and you have a choice between getting rid of Archer or Odorizzi to save money that's not even a choice. It's probably selling low on Odorizzi but he's replaceable. Archer isn't.

 

[fatbeard]

Heyward in SF makes some baseball sense, but I just think the financials are too bad for this to actually happen.

 

[CSF77]

I would push it honestly.

 

[CSF77]

I never said the cubs would trade for Odorizzi. I said that's who the Rays will aim to trade. Whether or not Archer is ideal for the cubs is meaningless. Its what the Rays want to do that matters and if your a team that wants to compete next year and you have a choice between getting rid of Archer or Odorizzi to save money that's not even a choice. It's probably selling low on Odorizzi but he's replaceable. Archer isn't.

I’m in the boat that it would cost Schwarber and Happ to get him.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Heyward in SF makes some baseball sense, but I just think the financials are too bad for this to actually happen.

Why are the financials too bad to make this happen? It's an exchange of bad contracts.

I'm not breaking contracts by exact cost each year, but it looks like Shark and Melancon are under contract through 2020 and Heyward through 2023. The pitchers coming back to Cubs would be roughly $10 mil more per year in Salary, so the Cubs would essentially be eating the final two years of Heyward's contract (2022-2023). Perhaps you have better details on the contracts?

 

[CSF77]

Heyward in SF makes some baseball sense, but I just think the financials are too bad for this to actually happen.

I view it as needs vs finances. Moving Heyward is pretty much going to be for a bad contract combo. But all of the players involved have produced in the past and nothing leads to believe that a change of envirnment pushes them back to their career avgs

 

[JP Hochbaum]

The move makes a ton of sense. Heyward appears to be a lost cause behind the plate and Shark and Melancon could be pieces to work on for Hickey. And theen LF becomes open for you know who....

 

[chibears55]

I view it as needs vs finances. Moving Heyward is pretty much going to be for a bad contract combo. But all of the players involved have produced in the past and nothing leads to believe that a change of envirnment pushes them back to their career avgs

Im putting this out there to chew on...

Jason Heyward for Giancarlo Stanton

Marlins want to dump salary and Stanton contract is huge..

Be hard to find a team willing to take on both the salary and give up top players...
Teams are going to ask for some salary relief if their gonna give up good players..

Marlins looking to dump salary would probably be willing to accept someone like Heyward who will at very least give them solid defense and who knows may hit better with change of scenery..
Plud
Marlins would save 220 mil. doing this deal..

Also have a chance of saving more if Heyward chooses to opt out over staying with Marlins..


Cubs would get an MVP caliber player at age 27 locked in for next 10 yrs ( plyr option for 2020)..
18 25mil
19 26mil
20 29mil
21 29mil
22 29mil
23 32mil
24 32mil
25 32mil
26 29mil
27 25mil
28 25mil or 10mil buyout


Obviously this could only happen if there not a strong interest and hope for Harper..
But
This could definately be a more cheaper option of the two...



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[JP Hochbaum]

No way Heywars gives the ok to the MArlins and a rebuild. The Giants make sense because they can at least contend, and SF is an amazing city.

 

[chibears55]

No way Heywars gives the ok to the MArlins and a rebuild. The Giants make sense because they can at least contend, and SF is an amazing city.

Contend???
Giants won 64 games last year..
Their not exactly on the same page as Dodgers Dbacks and Rockies now

He goes to Florida he'll be closer to home and if he doesnt like it there he can always opt out after the season...

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[Parade_Rain]

The move makes a ton of sense. Heyward appears to be a lost cause behind the plate and Shark and Melancon could be pieces to work on for Hickey. And theen LF becomes open for you know who....

Happ!

 

[beckdawg]

Happ!

My guess was going to be Andre Dawson or Soriano.

 

[beckdawg]

Im putting this out there to chew on...

Jason Heyward for Giancarlo Stanton

Marlins want to dump salary and Stanton contract is huge..

Be hard to find a team willing to take on both the salary and give up top players...
Teams are going to ask for some salary relief if their gonna give up good players..

Marlins looking to dump salary would probably be willing to accept someone like Heyward who will at very least give them solid defense and who knows may hit better with change of scenery..
Plud
Marlins would save 220 mil. doing this deal..

Also have a chance of saving more if Heyward chooses to opt out over staying with Marlins..


Cubs would get an MVP caliber player at age 27 locked in for next 10 yrs ( plyr option for 2020)..
18 25mil
19 26mil
20 29mil
21 29mil
22 29mil
23 32mil
24 32mil
25 32mil
26 29mil
27 25mil
28 25mil or 10mil buyout


Obviously this could only happen if there not a strong interest and hope for Harper..
But
This could definately be a more cheaper option of the two...



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Yeah.... that's not a salary dump. For one thing Stanton was an MVP candidate while Heyward was... well Heyward. For another theres the fact Heyward makes $29 mil this year if I'm recalling correctly. He's cheaper the following years but not that much. They'd only be saying a few million dollars and getting significantly worse.

 

[chibears55]

Yeah.... that's not a salary dump. For one thing Stanton was an MVP candidate while Heyward was... well Heyward. For another theres the fact Heyward makes $29 mil this year if I'm recalling correctly. He's cheaper the following years but not that much. They'd only be saying a few million dollars and getting significantly worse.

Few million????

They would be saving 220 mil between what owed of Heyward deal and what owed of Stanton deal if neither opts out..
Plus like i said Heyward could opt out after the season or get traded again, saving them more money

Plus if their salary dumping, their not exactly looking to improve...
Their supposedly looking to get payroll under 100 mil..


Im not saying itll happen
But
It could be something Epstein might consider offering the Marlins because it could be a win win deal for both sides..

Marlins will save big on future payroll, plus get a decent player in return and cubs will get an MVP caliber player locked up for 10 yrs at a reasonable cost...



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[TL1961]

The move makes a ton of sense. Heyward appears to be a lost cause behind the plate and Shark and Melancon could be pieces to work on for Hickey. And theen LF becomes open for you know who....

Why LF?
And I don't recall seeing Heyward behind the plate.

 

[CSF77]

Why LF?
And I don't recall seeing Heyward behind the plate.

I'm thinking it would be RF Bryant and 3B Baez in that situation.

Most likely
Schwarber, Almora, Bryant OF
Baez, Russell, Zobrist, Rizzo IF
Contreras C.

I really do not see a legit lead off still but that deal makes a ton of sense to me.

 

[CSF77]

Few million????

They would be saving 220 mil between what owed of Heyward deal and what owed of Stanton deal if neither opts out..
Plus like i said Heyward could opt out after the season or get traded again, saving them more money

Plus if their salary dumping, their not exactly looking to improve...
Their supposedly looking to get payroll under 100 mil..


Im not saying itll happen
But
It could be something Epstein might consider offering the Marlins because it could be a win win deal for both sides..

Marlins will save big on future payroll, plus get a decent player in return and cubs will get an MVP caliber player locked up for 10 yrs at a reasonable cost...



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That was a bad contract. Signing a guy until he is 37 rarely works out...Pujos ring a bell. Roid era is over and players are getting old 5 years earlier.

 

[chibears55]

That was a bad contract. Signing a guy until he is 37 rarely works out...Pujos ring a bell. Roid era is over and players are getting old 5 years earlier.

Pujols signed that contract at age 32
Stanton 27 and entering his primes..
There also a team option on that last year, so if he does fall with age they can opt out at age 36..

So Stanton deal takes him through his early 30s, Pujols deal takes him pass 40.. not quite the same

Also..
Pujols average may have dropped but his power and RBIs are still up there



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