What Theo needs to do in 2018

[chibears55]

Its alot deeper though.

Joe over used Chapman and he got hit hard. When Davis was used for more than one inning, he got hit hard, gave up homeruns in both the ALCS and ALDS

That is the trend, get 60 some innings out of them during the year, then another 15 in the playoffs. When he closed for the Royals in 2015, he basically got 4 outs per save. If Joe will continue to try to get 6 out saves from him is does not look like he trends good that way.

The only indication we have that Theo will pay up was one simple drunken phrase, "The stones of Wade Davis".

I dont see why they change the philosophy of position player core and pay for pitching.

Even though Yu Darvish shit the bed in the world series, he is projected to come here. I guess we need to get to the playoffs.

Chapman was overused..

Davis not so much

Don't know where you get the 60 innings and 15 innings trend from

Davis pitched 58 innings and 46 innings the last 2 years...

He only pitched 6 innings in playoff in 5 games..

Fact in last 3 years in playoffs..
2015 8 games 10 innings
2016 0 games
2017 5 games 6 innings

So despite a couple 4 or 6 out saves, he was far from being overused..


If the cubs choose not to resign davis itll be because he looking for more then 18 mil per and or for more then 4 yrs. If they can get him for 18 or less and 4 yrs, theyll resign him...

Im sure they were probably hoping Wilson or Edwards would of stepped up to take that job but their inconsistency put a damper on that idea..

There no better cheaper option available this off season and their trade pieces will be used to net a TOR type SP..





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[anotheridiot]

Chapman was overused..

Davis not so much

Don't know where you get the 60 innings and 15 innings trend from

Davis pitched 58 innings and 46 innings the last 2 years...

He only pitched 6 innings in playoff in 5 games..

Fact in last 3 years in playoffs..
2015 8 games 10 innings
2016 0 games
2017 5 games 6 innings

So despite a couple 4 or 6 out saves, he was far from being overused..


If the cubs choose not to resign davis itll be because he looking for more then 18 mil per and or for more then 4 yrs. If they can get him for 18 or less and 4 yrs, theyll resign him...

Im sure they were probably hoping Wilson or Edwards would of stepped up to take that job but their inconsistency put a damper on that idea..

There no better cheaper option available this off season and their trade pieces will be used to net a TOR type SP..





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I went to baseball reference and saw how the Royals used him in the playoffs and how the cubs use their closer in the playoffs. Was Davis pitching too much when he gave up the two home runs? In too early? We saw his mental collapse when Maddon still used him during the season after the cubs climbed to a 4 or 5 run lead with Joe claiming when you get your closer up, you have to use him then. So if the cubs offense worked and the cubs got up big by the ninth in the playoffs, my bet is Joe would still use him.

I just figure if the cubs made the world series, Joe would have done to Davis what he did to champan and it would not end well.

So looking at how Davis was used or used when it was not necessary during the season, is that the guy that will be able to do what they asked Chapman to do during the playoff run?

 

[JP Hochbaum]

Don't know if you guys have noticed, but every reliever and some starters get overused in the playoffs. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. This isn't a Maddon issue.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

For those who were looking for a reason why Tampa Bay might trade Archer their beat writers are reporting that they need to cut $10-$15 mil in salary before the season but they also want to field a better team at the same time. They can non-tender some guys to make up a few million but Archer will make $6.5 mil in 2018 (yes, it even feels silly to write) and clearly would bring back players that would make them better. They could easily make the case that an improving Snell and young phenom Brent Honeywell could top a good rotation for them so I do think they'll trade him. Unfortunately I think the Dodgers could offer a better package with something like Alex Verdugo and Joc Pederson. With the salary limitations neither Baez (arb in 2019) or Russell (arb in 2018) would be a fit. Schwarber or Happ would but who is the second player. I think he's a Dodger in 2018.

 

[chibears55]

For those who were looking for a reason why Tampa Bay might trade Archer their beat writers are reporting that they need to cut $10-$15 mil in salary before the season but they also want to field a better team at the same time. They can non-tender some guys to make up a few million but Archer will make $6.5 mil in 2018 (yes, it even feels silly to write) and clearly would bring back players that would make them better. They could easily make the case that an improving Snell and young phenom Brent Honeywell could top a good rotation for them so I do think they'll trade him. Unfortunately I think the Dodgers could offer a better package with something like Alex Verdugo and Joc Pederson. With the salary limitations neither Baez (arb in 2019) or Russell (arb in 2018) would be a fit. Schwarber or Happ would but who is the second player. I think he's a Dodger in 2018.

Schwarber and a pitching prospect

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[TC in Mississippi]

Schwarber and a pitching prospect

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They have no need for pitching prospects. They're loaded. Plus just Schwarber probably doesn't make them a contender in 2018. Verdugo and a resurgent Pederson might.

 

[Omeletpants]

Schwarber and a pitching prospect

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You are kidding?

 

[beckdawg]

For those who were looking for a reason why Tampa Bay might trade Archer their beat writers are reporting that they need to cut $10-$15 mil in salary before the season but they also want to field a better team at the same time. They can non-tender some guys to make up a few million but Archer will make $6.5 mil in 2018 (yes, it even feels silly to write) and clearly would bring back players that would make them better. They could easily make the case that an improving Snell and young phenom Brent Honeywell could top a good rotation for them so I do think they'll trade him. Unfortunately I think the Dodgers could offer a better package with something like Alex Verdugo and Joc Pederson. With the salary limitations neither Baez (arb in 2019) or Russell (arb in 2018) would be a fit. Schwarber or Happ would but who is the second player. I think he's a Dodger in 2018.

Everything I've read seems to suggest they will instead try to move Colome/Odorizzi. If they are actually attempting to compete there's literally 0 reason to trade Archer because you can't replace what he gives you for $6.5 mil. On the other hand, the difference between what odorizzi did last year and a 1 year prove it deal or a rookie likely isn't that much. And the thing is the differene between odorizzi and Archer in price is maybe a mil tops with Archer being even cheaper next year(comparable that is) as Odorizzi gets another arb raise.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Everything I've read seems to suggest they will instead try to move Colome/Odorizzi. If they are actually attempting to compete there's literally 0 reason to trade Archer because you can't replace what he gives you for $6.5 mil. On the other hand, the difference between what odorizzi did last year and a 1 year prove it deal or a rookie likely isn't that much. And the thing is the differene between odorizzi and Archer in price is maybe a mil tops with Archer being even cheaper next year(comparable that is) as Odorizzi gets another arb raise.

Correct, and yes I've read that too but I've also read they might surprise by moving Archer which is what I've said all along. Trading Odorizzi and Colome doesn't get you the pieces to compete for the AL East against Boston and NY. Trading Archer might, even if it's a longshot.

 

[chibears55]

You are kidding?

Nope..
Usually when teams trade a TOR type starter, they usually look for a team top pitching prospect(s) in return..

So Schwarber Tseng and or Mills

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[CSF77]

Nope..
Usually when teams trade a TOR type starter, they usually look for a team top pitching prospect(s) in return..

So Schwarber Tseng and or Mills

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Last I checked Tseng was ranked 13 and Mills 20. They are far from the team’s top pitching anything.

I’ve looked into TB’s needs and what they have. Pitching wise they can afford to lose Cobb and Archer. They have 2 pitchers that can replace them in hand. So a pitching prospect is not necessary.

They need a 2B and a DH. That is their needs going into this year. So 2 from Happ, Baez, Schwarber would up the stakes.

On LAD. Joc is a CF and honestly they are pretty set up in the OF. They lost 2 LHB’s so there is a clear need for a masher from the left side. Honestly looking at it Schwarber has really not put a complete season together and could become a core DH in the AL. Realistically he could get to .270-.300 BA with a 15% walk rate. Add to it 30-40 HR power. That becomes a steal.

I just don’t see Joc as a core hitter on a team.

Aft r that they need a 2B. Got the rookie at SS and need a 2B to grow with. Happ feels like a match here just because he comes with 6 years of control and they have a UI in place.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Nope..
Usually when teams trade a TOR type starter, they usually look for a team top pitching prospect(s) in return..

So Schwarber Tseng and or Mills

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Again though, not in this case. Adames, their top position player prospect, doesn't look like a great hitter and Brandon McKay is two years out and they still don't know whether he'll pitch or hit full time. They need offense for 2018 or they'll be buried in that AL East race where they want to compete. To me it's a long shot that they compete but hey if they want to try what the hell? Brent Honeywell, on the other hand, will likely be a better pitcher than Archer and they think Snell is a stud ready to take that next step.

 

[DanTown]

For those who were looking for a reason why Tampa Bay might trade Archer their beat writers are reporting that they need to cut $10-$15 mil in salary before the season but they also want to field a better team at the same time. They can non-tender some guys to make up a few million but Archer will make $6.5 mil in 2018 (yes, it even feels silly to write) and clearly would bring back players that would make them better. They could easily make the case that an improving Snell and young phenom Brent Honeywell could top a good rotation for them so I do think they'll trade him. Unfortunately I think the Dodgers could offer a better package with something like Alex Verdugo and Joc Pederson. With the salary limitations neither Baez (arb in 2019) or Russell (arb in 2018) would be a fit. Schwarber or Happ would but who is the second player. I think he's a Dodger in 2018.

The literal only way to cut that salary is Longoria out. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Braves or Phillies get in.

LA can get Archer but does it save enough money? My fear is the Dodgers get Kiermaier and Archer.

Taylor
Seager
Turner
Bellinger
Puig
Keirmaier
Forsythe
Barnes
Kershaw/Archer/Hill/Wood/Maeda

 

[CSF77]

Cashner was not given a Q offer. He might end up a target honestly now.

 

[SilenceS]

CBS guy likes Archer for Russell and some. Its a bold prediction, but makes some sense.

 

[beckdawg]

CBS guy likes Archer for Russell and some. Its a bold prediction, but makes some sense.

I would never make that deal personally. Archer's best 2 years in terms of fWAR he's been at 5.2 and 4.6 in 2015 and this year respectively. And even if you prefer RA9-WAR to fWAR his best season was only 4.3 in 2015. Russell last year as a 22 year old was worth 3.9 fWAR. Obviously this past season was a disappointment but he was only 23. Bryant debuted at 23 to give an idea how young Russell is comparatively. Archer's good and all but Russell is probably as valuable if not more when you consider his projection via age to go up.

Honestly I think you put Bryant Rizzo and Contreras on tier 1 don't move players. I'd put Russell on tier 1.5 as a tick below that where you'd basically have to have the most insane deal ever to move him. I'd put Schwarber, Almora, Happ and Baez on tier 2 which would be guys I don't necessarily want to trade but would if the right deal made sense. Schwarber and Almora are guys I don't want to move. There's too much potential in Schwarber's bat for me to consider moving him. If we're talking about moving him to the Rays I think you'd have to include both Archer and Colome and I wouldn't move him with any of the pieces above as well as Albertos and Lange being off limits. If it were something like Schwarber Alzolay and some mid top 30 types to the Rays for Archer and Colome I could live with that even though I really like Schwarber's bat.

On Almora, I just don't think it makes sense to deal him because I think his trade value is far less than his actual playing value. He doesn't have a ridiculously high ceiling but the guy does all the right things and has been big in big situations. Plus good defenders in CF aren't easy to come by and there's a little upside in his bat still to be tapped if he can improve vs RHP.

On Happ/Baez, I think one of them is movable for obvious reasons. If both are viewed as having the same trade value I'd move Happ first but I'm not entirely sure teams will see it that way. I get Baez's appeal to people but I also think that's his appeal to other teams. So, I suspect they'd agree to exclude the guys above but would take a stand that Baez is the guy headlining any real trade for TOR type pitching.

 

[beckdawg]

So on Otani... fangraphs mentioned something in an article that I found interesting. The gist was that given how slow the negotiations are going between NPB and MLB it's entirely likely Otani doesn't sign before the end of this year and they mentioned that teams are going to want to leave themselves options in case he does eventually sign rather than locking down all 5 starters. While they don't specifically mention the cubs, I feel like that's an interesting point and aligns with how I've seen the cubs offseason play out anyways.

If the cubs focus on the #4 starter either via trade or via FA as well as closer and strengthening your bullpen that could take a fair bit of time. My thoughts have been they'd likely address the #5 starter last and probably with a 1-2 year "prove it" type deal. The thing is those players usually wait til January to sign anyways because they are the left overs that few want and thus are cheap. The reason I feel like that relates to Otani is that it is rather doubtful he's going to want to go to AA/AAA. If he's turning down hundreds of millions of dollars to play this year he's going to want to play in the majors.

And if he's going to be waiting til january to sign because of snags in NPB/MLB negotiations that sort of plays into the cubs hands with the vet "prove it" type plan. Because if he does eventually come the cubs likely will have an open slot in their rotation where as not every other team is going to wait that long. I feel like that could be an enticing reason in a pitch to get him. Plus playing day 1 in the majors would escalate the teams ability to "re-sign" him to a larger deal quickly.

Regardless, it'll be interesting to see which teams fill out their starting 5 quickly.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

So on Otani... fangraphs mentioned something in an article that I found interesting. The gist was that given how slow the negotiations are going between NPB and MLB it's entirely likely Otani doesn't sign before the end of this year and they mentioned that teams are going to want to leave themselves options in case he does eventually sign rather than locking down all 5 starters. While they don't specifically mention the cubs, I feel like that's an interesting point and aligns with how I've seen the cubs offseason play out anyways.

If the cubs focus on the #4 starter either via trade or via FA as well as closer and strengthening your bullpen that could take a fair bit of time. My thoughts have been they'd likely address the #5 starter last and probably with a 1-2 year "prove it" type deal. The thing is those players usually wait til January to sign anyways because they are the left overs that few want and thus are cheap. The reason I feel like that relates to Otani is that it is rather doubtful he's going to want to go to AA/AAA. If he's turning down hundreds of millions of dollars to play this year he's going to want to play in the majors.

And if he's going to be waiting til january to sign because of snags in NPB/MLB negotiations that sort of plays into the cubs hands with the vet "prove it" type plan. Because if he does eventually come the cubs likely will have an open slot in their rotation where as not every other team is going to wait that long. I feel like that could be an enticing reason in a pitch to get him. Plus playing day 1 in the majors would escalate the teams ability to "re-sign" him to a larger deal quickly.

Regardless, it'll be interesting to see which teams fill out their starting 5 quickly.

A huge part of clearing this mess up happened last night as Ohtani signed with CAA as his American agents. It sounds like he is doing everything he can to make sure that he plays next year. Funny thing is that everyone assumed it was going to be Boras.

 

[beckdawg]

A huge part of clearing this mess up happened last night as Ohtani signed with CAA as his American agents. It sounds like he is doing everything he can to make sure that he plays next year. Funny thing is that everyone assumed it was going to be Boras.

I wouldn't have assumed he would go to Boras. I don't follow the agent scene much but all the talk about Otani has been he's a unique case where the money isnt first. Boras is always a money first guy so seeing him sign with CAA doesn't surprise me. Regardless, I'm not sure him signing really clears much up. It was certainly something that needed to happen in the process but the thing is it could easily take another month or more for NPB and MLB to iron out an agreement. And from there it could easily take a month for teams to court Otani. So, while it may actually happen this year I'm not sure it's going to come quickly or even before January.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I wouldn't have assumed he would go to Boras. I don't follow the agent scene much but all the talk about Otani has been he's a unique case where the money isnt first. Boras is always a money first guy so seeing him sign with CAA doesn't surprise me. Regardless, I'm not sure him signing really clears much up. It was certainly something that needed to happen in the process but the thing is it could easily take another month or more for NPB and MLB to iron out an agreement. And from there it could easily take a month for teams to court Otani. So, while it may actually happen this year I'm not sure it's going to come quickly or even before January.

The issue isn't MLB. They are willing to allow the old system posting fee of $20 mil for this one situation. It's the MLBPA that's saying no at this point, they feel the $20 mil is money teams would normally spend on other players, but from everything I've heard the last few days agent is going to be able to get them to bend as well. I bet it's resolved by the winter meetings. This guy is the big prize in FA and no matter who he signs with he'll be cheap and make everyone a lot of money. I still think the Cubs are a long shot but no matter I want to see this kid play.