What would you do with Alfonso Soriano?

[Captain Obvious]

If he's that bad how awful everyone else on your team?

Not as awful as Alex Rios, Adam Dunn, or Gordon Beckham.

 

[brett05]

I'd take Gordon as a player over most current Cubs. Rios and Dunn well...

 

[CODE_BLUE56]

No. I mean as a player. He sucks. He can only hit. That's all he can do and he doesn't do it well enough to have value.

so wait...soriano is the 5th worst OF overall on the cubs??

what???

 

[waldo7239117]

I'd take Gordon as a player over most current Cubs. Rios and Dunn well...

Over Castro to, right?

 

[waldo7239117]

so wait...soriano is the 5th worst OF overall on the cubs??

what???

Yeah that's what he said.

 

[Rice Cube]

so wait...soriano is the 5th worst OF overall on the cubs??

what???

If Soriano can only net you one win a season, he's hardly better than Reed Johnson and definitely not better than Byrd. So it's not entirely untrue.

If Soriano can only hit for power and can't even get on base 30% of the time, his value is extremely limited, especially if he also continues to decline on defense.

 

[nwfisch]

If Soriano can only net you one win a season, he's hardly better than Reed Johnson and definitely not better than Byrd. So it's not entirely untrue.

If Soriano can only hit for power and can't even get on base 30% of the time, his value is extremely limited, especially if he also continues to decline on defense.

Who would the 4 ahead of Soriano be in your opinion?

That said, I believe Soriano is good enough to be a starter on the Cubs at this point, however that should change if Brett Jackson gets called up.

 

[Rice Cube]

Who would the 4 ahead of Soriano be in your opinion?

That said, I believe Soriano is good enough to be a starter on the Cubs at this point, however that should change if Brett Jackson gets called up.

Starting with least sucky:

DeJesus
Byrd
Johnson
Sappelt
Soriano
Campana

Jackson almost immediately vaults into the Top 3 based on his projections when he's called up, especially if Byrd is traded.

 

[X]

Where Soriano ranks among our OFers is irrelevant. He's getting paid, and we want to get rid of him. Sitting him for a rookie only diminishes value, meaning we'd have to eat ALL of the $54M or whatever to move him, instead of just 65%+ of it.

 

[Jntg4]

Soriano's power is enough to put him over any other OF you mentioned, except maybe Brett Jackson. Sappelt is nowhere close lol.

Compared to our other starters, he's pretty decent:
LF Alfonso Soriano .325 wOBA
CF Marlon Byrd .315 wOBA
RF David DeJesus .309 wOBA
3B Ian Stewart .208 wOBA
SS Starlin Castro .338 wOBA
2B Darwin Barney .296 wOBA
1B Bryan LaHair .381 wOBA
C Geovany Soto .316 wOBA
SP Matt Garza .102 wOBA

Therefore, our best 9 starters at wOBA are:
Lahair .381 (Need I say sample size?)
Castro .338
Soriano .325
Soto .316
Byrd .315
DeJesus .309
Barney .296
Stewart .208
Garza .102

Therefore, Soriano is the 3rd best starter on the 2012 Cubs and is better than both Byrd and DeJesus, who should be replaced by Johnson, Sappelt, and Jackson before Soriano would be. With that said, Sappelt is not an MLB starter, and Johnson is only good as a platoon or bench player, while Jackson is not expected to start the season in the majors.

You clearly have failed to subjectively analyze this with metrics that are less flawed than batting average. Your eyes are lying to you. But then again, you probably go around using batting average and home run totals to make your case, because your baseball thinking, like many others, is medieval. It is all in the numbers, not the eye test.

 

[Rice Cube]

Where Soriano ranks among our OFers is irrelevant. He's getting paid, and we want to get rid of him. Sitting him for a rookie only diminishes value, meaning we'd have to eat ALL of the $54M or whatever to move him, instead of just 65%+ of it.

I think this is a good point and that means that Theo and Jed have to do things a certain way...

1. If they trade him, it has to be before the regular season begins so they can try to get something for value back instead of just paying for a DH.

2. If they don't trade him before Opening Day, then they have to start him as much as possible to try to build up some value.

It sounds like they're okay with releasing him as a last resort regardless.

 

[Jntg4]

Rice, I noticed that you were quoting so it probably skipped over my post at the bottom of the previous page (unless you've changed your post/page settings). I think it may be insightful.

 

[Rice Cube]

Soriano's power is enough to put him over any other OF you mentioned, except maybe Brett Jackson. Sappelt is nowhere close lol.

Compared to our other starters, he's pretty decent:
LF Alfonso Soriano .325 wOBA
CF Marlon Byrd .315 wOBA
RF David DeJesus .309 wOBA
3B Ian Stewart .208 wOBA
SS Starlin Castro .338 wOBA
2B Darwin Barney .296 wOBA
1B Bryan LaHair .381 wOBA
C Geovany Soto .316 wOBA
SP Matt Garza .102 wOBA

Therefore, our best 9 starters at wOBA are:
Lahair .381 (Need I say sample size?)
Castro .338
Soriano .325
Soto .316
Byrd .315
DeJesus .309
Barney .296
Stewart .208
Garza .102

Therefore, Soriano is the 3rd best starter on the 2012 Cubs and is better than both Byrd and DeJesus, who should be replaced by Johnson, Sappelt, and Jackson before Soriano would be. With that said, Sappelt is not an MLB starter, and Johnson is only good as a platoon or bench player, while Jackson is not expected to start the season in the majors.

You clearly have failed to subjectively analyze this with metrics that are less flawed than batting average. Your eyes are lying to you. But then again, you probably go around using batting average and home run totals to make your case, because your baseball thinking, like many others, is medieval. It is all in the numbers, not the eye test.

Who are we talking to here?

If you're talking about offense, Soriano is still okay, but those numbers you posted look like last year's numbers, not the projections. You also have to take into account defense and baserunning to determine who is the best overall player. I think defense and baserunning knock Soriano down a couple pegs, which is why I ranked them the way I did.

 

[Jntg4]

Who are we talking to here?

If you're talking about offense, Soriano is still okay, but those numbers you posted look like last year's numbers, not the projections. You also have to take into account defense and baserunning to determine who is the best overall player. I think defense and baserunning knock Soriano down a couple pegs, which is why I ranked them the way I did.

It was to CO, but you were arguing against this too, so...

 

[Rice Cube]

It was to CO, but you were arguing against this too, so...

Fair enough

I definitely think you have to evaluate the player as a whole. You can't just use wOBA on its own to make a judgment. You have to evaluate the player's projected ability to not only produce runs, but to prevent runs on defense and to not eliminate runs by stupid baserunning. That's again why I ranked them the way I did.

I don't think people would be in agreement but if nobody wants Soriano even if the entire salary were paid and they're not willing to release him, might not be terrible to just let him be the bench bat. At least you get something out of him that way and he won't kill you on defense.

 

[X]

I think this is a good point and that means that Theo and Jed have to do things a certain way...

1. If they trade him, it has to be before the regular season begins so they can try to get something for value back instead of just paying for a DH.

2. If they don't trade him before Opening Day, then they have to start him as much as possible to try to build up some value.

It sounds like they're okay with releasing him as a last resort regardless.

Which is dumb, imo...especially in a lost season.

 

[Jntg4]

Who are we talking to here?

If you're talking about offense, Soriano is still okay, but those numbers you posted look like last year's numbers, not the projections. You also have to take into account defense and baserunning to determine who is the best overall player. I think defense and baserunning knock Soriano down a couple pegs, which is why I ranked them the way I did.

Ummm... no, not at all. Soriano's UZR/150 was 4.7 last year, that's pretty decent, and his offensive output dwarfs the backup players you all recommend replacing him with. As for base running, he is a -3.7, but even in 2010 he was a positive value. Reed Johnson was a 0.6, Sappelt was a 0.0, Jackson has no major league stats and fangraphs doesn't calculate minor league base running, but you'd have to imagine he is pretty good at it, Byrd was a 1.5, DeJesus was a 2.7. So yes, he is the worst base runner. But his wOBA clearly shows that he is the most competent hitter in our outfield and you have to actually get on base before you worry about base running (which Soriano doesn't do, but his power makes up for it as portrayed in his wOBA).

That said, Soriano is the best player we have manning our outfield, and Marlon Byrd should be traded to make room for Brett Jackson instead of benching or straight releasing Soriano.

 

[Jntg4]

Fair enough

I definitely think you have to evaluate the player as a whole. You can't just use wOBA on its own to make a judgment. You have to evaluate the player's projected ability to not only produce runs, but to prevent runs on defense and to not eliminate runs by stupid baserunning. That's again why I ranked them the way I did.

I don't think people would be in agreement but if nobody wants Soriano even if the entire salary were paid and they're not willing to release him, might not be terrible to just let him be the bench bat. At least you get something out of him that way and he won't kill you on defense.

Soriano is our best outfield hitter and a good defensive left fielder, and his production is much more valuable than Sappelt's or Johnson's, his only downside to the two of them in base running. I'll take the offense.

 

[Rice Cube]

Ummm... no, not at all. Soriano's UZR/150 was 4.7 last year, that's pretty decent, and his offensive output dwarfs the backup players you all recommend replacing him with. As for base running, he is a -3.7, but even in 2010 he was a positive value. Reed Johnson was a 0.6, Sappelt was a 0.0, Jackson has no major league stats and fangraphs doesn't calculate minor league base running, but you'd have to imagine he is pretty good at it, Byrd was a 1.5, DeJesus was a 2.7. So yes, he is the worst base runner. But his wOBA clearly shows that he is the most competent hitter in our outfield and you have to actually get on base before you worry about base running.

That said, Soriano is the best player we have manning our outfield, and Marlon Byrd should be traded to make room for Brett Jackson instead of benching or straight releasing Soriano.

Soriano's wOBA is skewed by his prodigious power and doesn't tell you that he got on base less than 29% of the time last season. He is also a year older and is more likely to decline than to bounce back. The power is still useful, but you have to look at the whole picture.

 

[Jntg4]

Soriano's wOBA is skewed by his prodigious power and doesn't tell you that he got on base less than 29% of the time last season. He is also a year older and is more likely to decline than to bounce back. The power is still useful, but you have to look at the whole picture.

The whole picture is that we are comparing a useful power bat to Dave fucking Sappelt and Reed Johnson.