What would you do with Alfonso Soriano?

[Jntg4]

Who likes my CO impersonation so far? Actually using my real thoughts while mocking his posting style, lol.

 

[brett05]

Over Castro to, right?

No. Castro bat>>>>bacon.

Bacon d >>> Castro

But it kills me to say but I'm not sure Bacons bat will be a major league bat

So I take Castro over bacon, but call me insane I take Ramirez over Castro

 

[Rice Cube]

The whole picture is that we are comparing a useful power bat to Dave fucking Sappelt and Reed Johnson.

I never said Sappelt and Johnson were superstars. What I'm saying is that Soriano is probably not the best outfielder on the field based on a number of different factors.

 

[Rice Cube]

No. Castro bat>>>>bacon.

Bacon d >>> Castro

But it kills me to say but I'm nit sure Bacons bat will be a major league bat

So I take Castro over bacon, but call me insane I take Ramirez over Castro

Alexei right? Did he win a Gold Glove last year? He's an excellent defensive shortstop by most measures. I would agree with you.

 

[Jntg4]

I never said Sappelt and Johnson were superstars. What I'm saying is that Soriano is probably not the best outfielder on the field based on a number of different factors.

There is absolutely no way that his overall value is less than Dave Sappelt or Reed Johnson.

Sappelt's a scrub and Johnson is a defensive replacement off the bench who doesn't hit in full-time duty.

 

[Rice Cube]

There is absolutely no way that his overall value is less than Dave Sappelt or Reed Johnson.

Sappelt's a scrub and Johnson is a defensive replacement off the bench who doesn't hit in full-time duty.

That depends on whether you believe aging, declining Soriano can squeeze out a net win. The past couple seasons he netted 1.6 and 1.3 wins. So at least he's not Koyie Hill

I agree with everyone that he's a power bat and that's still useful, and I am pretty sure they will have him start in LF if he's not traded. I'm just not sure he is in the top 5 anymore. But I concede that I could be wrong about that and I wouldn't mind that at all.

 

[brett05]

Alexei right? Did he win a Gold Glove last year? He's an excellent defensive shortstop by most measures. I would agree with you.

Yes

Unfortunately no he did not. But he's very good with my eye test

 

[brett05]

I think both teams are blessed with career SS

 

[CODE_BLUE56]

Who are we talking to here?

If you're talking about offense, Soriano is still okay, but those numbers you posted look like last year's numbers, not the projections. You also have to take into account defense and baserunning to determine who is the best overall player. I think defense and baserunning knock Soriano down a couple pegs, which is why I ranked them the way I did.

meh soriano has been ok running wise....he doesnt get on base a terrible amount because of his BA among other things

i think his power production and wOBA are really too hard to ignore though..do i think he's the best in our outfield..no..

fifth best? no way

 

[ZDemp34]

What the hell is wOBA and why does it seem to be the only stat that matters in this discussion?

 

[ZDemp34]

Soriano is our best outfield hitter and a good defensive left fielder, and his production is much more valuable than Sappelt's or Johnson's, his only downside to the two of them in base running. I'll take the offense.

No.

 

[Jntg4]

What the hell is wOBA and why does it seem to be the only stat that matters in this discussion?

It's weighted On Base Average and it is one of the least flawed stats and is the best overall indicator of offensive output.

 

[Jntg4]

No.

Yes, UZR/150 says yes.

 

[ZDemp34]

Yes, UZR/150 says yes.

The last three seasons, he's led MLB leftfielders in errors and had the lowest fielding percentage among left fielders...

 

[Rice Cube]

The last three seasons, he's led MLB leftfielders in errors and had the lowest fielding percentage among left fielders...

Fielding percentage isn't really the best way to measure defense. WFH is right that Soriano had a pretty good UZR (ultimate zone rating) but at the same time, UZR is pretty volatile and subject to sample size issues. In most cases if you're looking at defense, you have to use a combination of defensive metrics and scouting reports.

I think at least we're all in agreement that Soriano isn't the best OF in the Cubs' system right now :lol:

 

[CODE_BLUE56]

Fielding percentage isn't really the best way to measure defense. WFH is right that Soriano had a pretty good UZR (ultimate zone rating) but at the same time, UZR is pretty volatile and subject to sample size issues. In most cases if you're looking at defense, you have to use a combination of defensive metrics and scouting reports.

I think at least we're all in agreement that Soriano isn't the best OF in the Cubs' system right now :lol:

judging by that, soriano is really not a good defender

and i agree with your last sentence

 

[Captain Obvious]

so wait...soriano is the 5th worst OF overall on the cubs??

what???

Yes, he is.

If Soriano can only net you one win a season, he's hardly better than Reed Johnson and definitely not better than Byrd. So it's not entirely untrue.

If Soriano can only hit for power and can't even get on base 30% of the time, his value is extremely limited, especially if he also continues to decline on defense.

Bingo!

Who would the 4 ahead of Soriano be in your opinion?

That said, I believe Soriano is good enough to be a starter on the Cubs at this point, however that should change if Brett Jackson gets called up.

BJax, DeJesus, Byrd, Johnson.

Starting with least sucky:

DeJesus
Byrd
Johnson
Sappelt
Soriano
Campana

Jackson almost immediately vaults into the Top 3 based on his projections when he's called up, especially if Byrd is traded.

I'm not putting Sappelt above Soriano just yet.

Soriano's power is enough to put him over any other OF you mentioned, except maybe Brett Jackson. Sappelt is nowhere close lol.

Compared to our other starters, he's pretty decent:
LF Alfonso Soriano .325 wOBA
CF Marlon Byrd .315 wOBA
RF David DeJesus .309 wOBA
3B Ian Stewart .208 wOBA
SS Starlin Castro .338 wOBA
2B Darwin Barney .296 wOBA
1B Bryan LaHair .381 wOBA
C Geovany Soto .316 wOBA
SP Matt Garza .102 wOBA

Therefore, our best 9 starters at wOBA are:
Lahair .381 (Need I say sample size?)
Castro .338
Soriano .325
Soto .316
Byrd .315
DeJesus .309
Barney .296
Stewart .208
Garza .102

Therefore, Soriano is the 3rd best starter on the 2012 Cubs and is better than both Byrd and DeJesus, who should be replaced by Johnson, Sappelt, and Jackson before Soriano would be. With that said, Sappelt is not an MLB starter, and Johnson is only good as a platoon or bench player, while Jackson is not expected to start the season in the majors.

You clearly have failed to subjectively analyze this with metrics that are less flawed than batting average. Your eyes are lying to you. But then again, you probably go around using batting average and home run totals to make your case, because your baseball thinking, like many others, is medieval. It is all in the numbers, not the eye test.

Sure, Johnson may only be good as a platoon or bench player, but he's actually kinda decent at it, despite how sick of seeing him I am. He gets his value that way.

I've failed to subjectively analyze this? LMFAO. You're using their bats to say who is the best player on the team. Which BTW, LaHair is certainly not the best player LMFAO.

Soriano's bat was worth 1 run. Not 1 win. 1 run. While playing a position that quite frankly sucks. Even if we use UZR in a terrible sample size, his legs negate his value with the glove. His position more than negates all the value with his bat. It comes down to his value comes from replacement, or just playing.

Soriano has no value coming off the bench, so as long as he is not one of our 3 best OFers, he needs to go. DeJesus, Jackson, and Byrd are all better than him.

Kudos to you for failing at trying to be me.

Which is dumb, imo...especially in a lost season.

Agreed. Cutting him is dumb. Theo is smart enough to find someone to take him.

The whole picture is that we are comparing a useful power bat to Dave fucking Sappelt and Reed Johnson.

How useful is that bat really though? It was worth 1 fucking run. That's still awful and he doesn't really provide positive value anywhere else.

There is absolutely no way that his overall value is less than Dave Sappelt or Reed Johnson.

Sappelt's a scrub and Johnson is a defensive replacement off the bench who doesn't hit in full-time duty.

He may not hit in full time duty, but he hits well in part time duty. Better than Soriano hits in full time duty.

meh soriano has been ok running wise....he doesnt get on base a terrible amount because of his BA among other things

i think his power production and wOBA are really too hard to ignore though..do i think he's the best in our outfield..no..

fifth best? no way

How is he better than Johnson, Byrd, Jackson, and DeJesus then?

Yes, UZR/150 says yes.

In a one year sample size. I'll give you that he is pretty decent for a left fielder, because I think he is. But the other 3 guys play harder positions and if you put them in LF, they would have higher UZRs.

 

[brett05]

Uhm isn't one run a game from a player like awesome? Lineup of nine one run guys sounds record breaking

 

[Jntg4]

Soriano's bat was worth 1 run. Not 1 win. 1 run. While playing a position that quite frankly sucks. Even if we use UZR in a terrible sample size, his legs negate his value with the glove. His position more than negates all the value with his bat. It comes down to his value comes from replacement, or just playing.

Soriano was had a 12.3 RAR, that's 12.3 Runs above Replacement.

Even if his bRAR was 1.2, he still did better than Dave fucking Sappelt could ever dream of.

 

[nwfisch]

There is a thing called sample size with Reed Johnson.