Why The Bears Will Win Sunday

[Bearin' Down]

If pace thought this offense could beat teams on its own I dont think he would have bothered trading for mack. So I'll defer to his judgement on that

Could this offense be good? Sure. But you're setting yourself up for disappointment taking that as a given at this point. Its rational to say they'll be better than last year but that bar is not high.

If the bears win sunday the defense will probably be the biggest reason

Untrue. If Pace sees an opportunity to do something to help push them to winning a Superbowl, he will take it. He has made that absolutely clear. It's actually just the opposite, if he thought this offense wasn't there, he would never have given up so many picks for a player on the other side of the ball.

 

[Washington]

Considering the Bears are getting 7.5 and the general concensus appears the Bears will win via a blow out, have you all bet your mortgages on this game? This screams of an easy get rich move. Our prolific offense is going to dominate GB's bad D and our D is going to decimate GB's O because they have no running game and don't have any weapons. Seems too easy to me.

 

[bearmick]

Actually it is grounded in fact. What factual basis do you have to assume Rodgers is going to use Graham like the saints did? Brees had Graham when he was much younger. Brees is a quick strike qb. Rodgers likes to extend plays. Different systems. Historically, you can't back up this statement.

And yes, their ypc was good last year because they had Aaron Jones (5.5 ypc) and Brett Hundley (7.5 ypc). Neither will be playing in this game. Now they are relying on Jamaal Williams (3.6 ypc) and ty Montgomery (3.8 ypc).

Got any other hot takes I can disprove?

You haven't disproved anything, they still outgained their opponents without Hundley's carries and the carries against them also include inflated QB carries, so this holds no water at all. Again, your entire premise for this thread (the Packers will have hugely regressed and will have a bad running game and defense) is not remotely based on any evidence, and your assumption that the Bears offense will all of a sudden run this offense like a well oiled machine is just laughable.

Yeah the Bears have an outside chance if they get some big plays on defense and Rodgers comes out cold in week one, but they're the second heaviest underdogs in the league for good reason. Stop being a homer and get real.

 

[Alpha]

Rodger also has a new QB coach and he seem not to like his new receivers, Jimmy isn't doing anything if Rodger can't deliver the ball to him, that is if the Bears pass rush would be as good as we all hope for with the Mac addition.

The Packers Defense has a new DC they sucked last year in a system they played in for many years, anything can happen this Sunday, I hope it goes the Bears way.

 

[pepethebear]

Untrue. If Pace sees an opportunity to do something to help push them to winning a Superbowl, he will take it. He has made that absolutely clear. It's actually just the opposite, if he thought this offense wasn't there, he would never have given up so many picks for a player on the other side of the ball.

The first part of what you said is kind of stating the obvious. That's what every GM does.

I don't think Pace made that trade because of where the offense is necessarily. On that he's gambling. I think he did it to ensure the bears win games. Because if they don't start winning games soon Pace's seat will get hot.

 

[bearmick]

If pace thought this offense could beat teams on its own I dont think he would have bothered trading for mack. So I'll defer to his judgement on that

Could this offense be good? Sure. But you're setting yourself up for disappointment taking that as a given at this point. Its rational to say they'll be better than last year but that bar is not high.

If the bears win sunday the defense will probably be the biggest reason

They should be running the offense much better in the return game in December, but people thinking they're going to come out of the gate walking over people are simply not being realistic. Pure emotion over logic.

 

[bearmick]

And the new DC being a negative for the Packers (upgrading to one of the best DCs in football with Pettine), but a new complicated offensive system for the Bears that looked lost in preseason with a raw QB is a positive and will be good right away.

This fucking place.

 

[Bearin' Down]

So what will the blow-out score be like in your opinion?

The more threads I read here the more I'm excited that I'll be the one on the positive side of things living in WI come Monday. It is rare occurence for me to have that happen, but people have me believing this damn near guaranteed.

I do remember this one time though, not so many years ago, where the Packers were starting a WR (Montgomery) as their RB and people laughed and laughed. I think he had around 180 yards rushing against us and we lost. Weird things can happen but it is good to know it won't this weekend.

Dont conflate your specious argument with what I've said. I'm not predicting a blow out. I said why the Bears will win on Sunday. Not why the Bears are gonna blow out the Packers.

 

[Bearin' Down]

It was not a negative per se. I said their d is bad on top of having a new system to learn. Their D is bad is the reason. If they had talented players this wouldn't be a concern. They don't. Yes, the Bears offense won't be as good Sunday as it will be in December and the same can be said for their d. Except, we have a lot more talent.

Their defense was 28th in total yards, 31st in yards a play, 28th in points allowed a game, all while being on the field the 8th least and acquiring almost no one to upgrade it.

EDIT: I messed up this post big time with regards to Packers stats last season. In my haste I reopened NFLs defensive stats and it was set to 2018 preseason. Here are the numbers in those categories last year:

22nd in yards a game, 24th in yards a play, 25th in points a game, and they were on the field 26th most.

I thought I'd leave the old Post up so the mistake is transparent.

 

[pepethebear]

They should be running the offense much better in the return game in December, but people thinking they're going to come out of the gate walking over people are simply not being realistic. Pure emotion over logic.

I agree. I think stuff should start to click after the bye as long as injuries are minimal. Before that I'm expecting mostly ball control. The bears probably won't take too many risks. I'm thinking a more competent version of last years offense due to more talent and (hopefully) better play calling.

 

[Washington]

And the new DC being a negative for the Packers (upgrading to one of the best DCs in football with Pettine), but a new complicated offensive system for the Bears that looked lost in preseason with a raw QB is a positive and will be good right away.

This fucking place.

If Fangio had chosen to leave, I wanted Pettine. I feel Pettine > Fangio as it is. I feel very certain Pettine is going to really dial up the pressure against our green QB. That is what Fangio should have done to Hundley last year but chose not to - and we got beat soundly. GB having a new DC in Pettine is a benefit to them and not a negative. Capers was bad.

 

[playthrough2001]

And the new DC being a negative for the Packers (upgrading to one of the best DCs in football with Pettine), but a new complicated offensive system for the Bears that looked lost in preseason with a raw QB is a positive and will be good right away.

This fucking place.

You really are stuck on that Bengals game. I was listening to NFL radio this morning and they commented on how hardly any offenses looked impressive this preseason. They said the Eagles were probably the worst. I'm pretty sure that's meaningless too. You're right, "this place!"

 

[PrideisBears]

And the new DC being a negative for the Packers (upgrading to one of the best DCs in football with Pettine), but a new complicated offensive system for the Bears that looked lost in preseason with a raw QB is a positive and will be good right away.

This fucking place.

It looked raw with Mitch. Chase was scoring

 

[SugarWalls]

Win or lose this weekend there are going to be some absolutely intolerable reactions.

 

[Chris Sojka]

Khalil Mack's presence is being undervalued

 

[Bearin' Down]

You haven't disproved anything, they still outgained their opponents without Hundley's carries and the carries against them also include inflated QB carries, so this holds no water at all. Again, your entire premise for this thread (the Packers will have hugely regressed and will have a bad running game and defense) is not remotely based on any evidence, and your assumption that the Bears offense will all of a sudden run this offense like a well oiled machine is just laughable.

Yeah the Bears have an outside chance if they get some big plays on defense and Rodgers comes out cold in week one, but they're the second heaviest underdogs in the league for good reason. Stop being a homer and get real.

When you say outgained their opponents, what stat are you referring to exactly? Because as I calculate it, if you remove Hundley and Jones (their best two rushers by far) and add in Rodgers' numbers the year before) you're at 3.9 ypc which would put them at 22nd. Let me take a moment and just say I am not saying Rodgers is somehow anywhere near a downgrade at QB. Obviously, that's no where close to being true. But to say that the Packers are a good running team when their best two rushers from last year aren't playing is absolutely false.

In addition, as to the TEs, GB has ranked 24th, 21st, 21st, 27th, and 14th in TE targets over the last five years (with 24th being last year and 14th being 2013). I don't see any reason to believe that Aaron's suddenly going to change his style where Graham is the Graham of the Saints again.

 

[LiverpoolBearsFAn]

Offence and Trubs will continue to have growing pains. Young QB, new system - they may flash at times but there will be mistakes. Winning this season is more likely to be based on great defence and running the ball well, but at least we have the options to spread it about a little and stop teams stacking the box.

With Mack we now have the possibility of being a top five defence, and that can get you a long way. To win Sunday we need to consistently pressure and sack Rodgers, and keep him off the field using Howard. We do need to develop the passing game, but it may take time and patience.

 

[Leon Sandcastle]

Graham will get his. The Packers will look like the Packers (Stupid puke green, shit yellow, and good)

I do think we have an outside chance to beat them but its probably slim. Bears probably wont look great on Offense this early but the Defense should be bad ass with everyone healthy. Problem is that Aaron Fuck Face Rodgers is good enough to beat elite Defensive play.

All that being said......Bears 30 Fuck Sticks 17

 

[Warden of the Northeast]

The Kool-aid sure has been flowing today.

 

[Bearin' Down]

They should be running the offense much better in the return game in December, but people thinking they're going to come out of the gate walking over people are simply not being realistic. Pure emotion over logic.

Again, I never said they'd walk over Aaron Rodgers. I said they'd win. You adding the rest of that narrative in is you adding in your emotions to an emotionless post fwiw.