Yoenis Cespedes Granted Free Agency

[CODE_BLUE56]

I'm with Dabynsky and CO. I hope Cespedes will become a solid player with the Cubs. (If he signs).

Why is he getting all this hype though? Just because he's from Cuba?

potential(especially athletically) and precedent

and lol@ not making contact not having to do with swing issues

 

[Rice Cube]

I don't think you use a $50MM contract to get just 10 wins in this case. That's an inefficient use of money for a prospect. If you're spending that much on an elite prospect you're hoping for 20 wins. I don't think anyone would be satisfied with just league average production.

 

[DewsSox79]

I should have elaborated. We really don't know what kind of contact he'll make. But, he has that power swing, reminds me of Gary Sheffield minus the annoying bat wiggle. He likely won't be the Juan Pierre of contact. However, I still do not see nor has anyone pointed out a hole in his swing.

I can agree that with 50MM+, I become wary. We've heard 32-60 million this off season. I think it's likely to be about 48 or so... which I am totally behind. He can definitely be worth 10 wins over 6 years. The thing that people need to understand is that we need to make sure we pay for his WAR, but that we aren't necessarily paying for that, we're paying for what he *could* be. That's something that I don't think most understand(not saying this is you, Rice.).



If you can make a thought then why don't you?

Okay, even if he didn't ignore sample size, that doesn't address the bigger matter of him not playing baseball in 9 months. Care to take this one? I didn't think so.

STFU with "wins" fucking christ.

It doesnt matter how long he hasnt played ball. He has raked in a pony league! great! does NOT mean it will translate to the MLB end of story. he is also in his mid 20's which is not the age of a "young" prospect like soler. I dont care what his normal swing looks like, I dont care about his numbers. There is nothing that shows that he will be an outstanding player, nothing. you cant guess "wins" and all your other non sense. Gary Sheffield lol.

 

[Jntg4]

I should have elaborated. We really don't know what kind of contact he'll make. But, he has that power swing, reminds me of Gary Sheffield minus the annoying bat wiggle. He likely won't be the Juan Pierre of contact. However, I still do not see nor has anyone pointed out a hole in his swing.

I can agree that with 50MM+, I become wary. We've heard 32-60 million this off season. I think it's likely to be about 48 or so... which I am totally behind. He can definitely be worth 10 wins over 6 years. The thing that people need to understand is that we need to make sure we pay for his WAR, but that we aren't necessarily paying for that, we're paying for what he *could* be. That's something that I don't think most understand(not saying this is you, Rice.).



If you can make a thought then why don't you?

Okay, even if he didn't ignore sample size, that doesn't address the bigger matter of him not playing baseball in 9 months. Care to take this one? I didn't think so.

Sorry, I Special person-proof my thoughts, which is why you don't see them. Maybe you should try having a thought too, so you don't sound as Special person as when you made a dumb soccer joke earlier.

 

[Jntg4]

STFU with "wins" fucking christ.

It doesnt matter how long he hasnt played ball. He has raked in a pony league! great! does NOT mean it will translate to the MLB end of story. he is also in his mid 20's which is not the age of a "young" prospect like soler. I dont care what his normal swing looks like, I dont care about his numbers. There is nothing that shows that he will be an outstanding player, nothing. you cant guess "wins" and all your other non sense. Gary Sheffield lol.

Evidently, he forgot how to "make" a thought.

 

[Captain Obvious]

I don't think you use a $50MM contract to get just 10 wins in this case. That's an inefficient use of money for a prospect. If you're spending that much on an elite prospect you're hoping for 20 wins. I don't think anyone would be satisfied with just league average production.

No, no, no. You aren't trying to get 10 wins. You're hoping to get the 20, of course. But in case that he fizzles and isn't that great, the 50 MM will cover what his actual worth would be. Even if he is not that great with the bat, say minus a few runs, his position is a + as long as he is in CF, he's athletic, so he's likely to be a decent baserunner, and he ought to have no problem in Wrigley's small CF. With the 50MM, basically you're paying for his expected value, hoping that he gets the surplus value... if he doesn't, it's not a huge deal because we likely won't lose a ton of money.

STFU with "wins" fucking christ.

It doesnt matter how long he hasnt played ball. He has raked in a pony league! great! does NOT mean it will translate to the MLB end of story. he is also in his mid 20's which is not the age of a "young" prospect like soler. I dont care what his normal swing looks like, I dont care about his numbers. There is nothing that shows that he will be an outstanding player, nothing. you cant guess "wins" and all your other non sense. Gary Sheffield lol.

No, I will not STFU about wins. Unless you have something better, you're going to have to deal it. Kinda funny, isn't it? You ***** and ***** about WAR, yet you can't seem to find anything better that is all inclusive.

It doesn't matter how long he hasn't played? You take Albert Pujols out of the game for 9 months and stick him in the same sample size and he's not going to perform, either. No one is saying that it will translate to the MLB, but what you don't seem to understand is that he was in Cuba. He was in their highest level. He can't just get up and say that he is going to move to America in play in the MLB. He was stuck. While he isn't as young as Soler, he is also a lot closer to the big leagues, which he may have been ready for a few years, we don't really know. You're right, there is nothing showing he'll be a great player, but we know what many scouts have said and they say that he has tools.

Yes, Gary Sheffield. I'm not saying he will be Gary Sheffield. His swing reminds me of Sheffield's.

 

[The Bandit]

Cuba can't be compared to the majors at all.. I saw it on here before its like A ball or something insanely low

 

[Rice Cube]

Why would I use $50MM to pay for 10 wins when I could just call up guys in-house who can already do that, some of whom aren't 26 years old yet? Yeah, it'd cover his "floor" but it's just not a very good use of money especially for a team on the mend. I'd rather they spent less on the allegedly younger Cubans than on Cespedes to be honest.

You have to treat Cespedes like he was a draftee. You pay him the $50MM because you expect him to be a $100MM man. You use the $100MM as your minimum expectation for production (in WAR$) even though you only paid him half that. Otherwise there's no way you can consider this kind of deal a success. You only commit that money if you're balls-to-the-wall sure he can be that $100MM man. He's still a prospect, which is why you can justify paying him less than that sum.

If you have any other 26-year-old who is past his arbitration years and who only gives you two wins a season, there's no way you give him a 5-6 year/$50MM contract. No competent GM would do that. You keep paying him anywhere between league minimum and $2MM to be average. You don't give him 8 figures.

 

[Jntg4]

No, no, no. You aren't trying to get 10 wins. You're hoping to get the 20, of course. But in case that he fizzles and isn't that great, the 50 MM will cover what his actual worth would be. Even if he is not that great with the bat, say minus a few runs, his position is a + as long as he is in CF, he's athletic, so he's likely to be a decent baserunner, and he ought to have no problem in Wrigley's small CF. With the 50MM, basically you're paying for his expected value, hoping that he gets the surplus value... if he doesn't, it's not a huge deal because we likely won't lose a ton of money.




No, I will not STFU about wins. Unless you have something better, you're going to have to deal it. Kinda funny, isn't it? You ***** and ***** about WAR, yet you can't seem to find anything better that is all inclusive.

It doesn't matter how long he hasn't played? You take Albert Pujols out of the game for 9 months and stick him in the same sample size and he's not going to perform, either. No one is saying that it will translate to the MLB, but what you don't seem to understand is that he was in Cuba. He was in their highest level. He can't just get up and say that he is going to move to America in play in the MLB. He was stuck. While he isn't as young as Soler, he is also a lot closer to the big leagues, which he may have been ready for a few years, we don't really know. You're right, there is nothing showing he'll be a great player, but we know what many scouts have said and they say that he has tools.

Yes, Gary Sheffield. I'm not saying he will be Gary Sheffield. His swing reminds me of Sheffield's.

1. It's 50 million fucking dollars! Not a lot of money? :lmao: I'm so glad you have no involvement in this club.

2. Maybe because all inclusive stats are Special person? You can analyze everything piece by piece and to do the same thing, and you get a better idea as to how that player fits your needs rather than one number that doesn't tell you anything about what aspects of the game are his strengths and weaknesses.

 

[DewsSox79]

No, no, no. You aren't trying to get 10 wins. You're hoping to get the 20, of course. But in case that he fizzles and isn't that great, the 50 MM will cover what his actual worth would be. Even if he is not that great with the bat, say minus a few runs, his position is a + as long as he is in CF, he's athletic, so he's likely to be a decent baserunner, and he ought to have no problem in Wrigley's small CF. With the 50MM, basically you're paying for his expected value, hoping that he gets the surplus value... if he doesn't, it's not a huge deal because we likely won't lose a ton of money.




No, I will not STFU about wins. Unless you have something better, you're going to have to deal it. Kinda funny, isn't it? You ***** and ***** about WAR, yet you can't seem to find anything better that is all inclusive.

It doesn't matter how long he hasn't played? You take Albert Pujols out of the game for 9 months and stick him in the same sample size and he's not going to perform, either. No one is saying that it will translate to the MLB, but what you don't seem to understand is that he was in Cuba. He was in their highest level. He can't just get up and say that he is going to move to America in play in the MLB. He was stuck. While he isn't as young as Soler, he is also a lot closer to the big leagues, which he may have been ready for a few years, we don't really know. You're right, there is nothing showing he'll be a great player, but we know what many scouts have said and they say that he has tools.

Yes, Gary Sheffield. I'm not saying he will be Gary Sheffield. His swing reminds me of Sheffield's.

How many times do me and FT have to take you out to the field and beat you on this site about this subject? WAR=subjective as **** and I will repeat, use with all other available statistical and metrical data available, plus the eye ball, plus scouting reports and full lenght documentation on his performance in the "pony" league. This isnt hard to understand.....you use all available stats,metrics,your own eyes, documentation How many more fucking times do I have to spell it out for you? using WAR by itself....get the **** out of here.

 

[Jntg4]

He just doesn't understand when you say to use everything available, he registers it as "I should look up a bunch of stats that I'm too lazy to find. It is much easier to use one random stat I don't know how to use properly at once."

 

[Rice Cube]

To be fair, most front offices these days (there are a few stragglers) use some form of runs/wins calculation (some of them similar to what the nerds on FanGraphs use, most are proprietary) in conjunction with scouting to build a team. You of course need to score runs to generate wins. The subjectivity is in how each weight is assigned, but even those have a mathematical basis. Every single statistic in use is flawed because baseball is inherently random, but there are certain statistics that are more correlative and thus better used to evaluate a player and to project future performance.

 

[DewsSox79]

To be fair, most front offices these days (there are a few stragglers) use some form of runs/wins calculation (some of them similar to what the nerds on FanGraphs use, most are proprietary) in conjunction with scouting to build a team. You of course need to score runs to generate wins. The subjectivity is in how each weight is assigned, but even those have a mathematical basis. Every single statistic in use is flawed because baseball is inherently random, but there are certain statistics that are more correlative and thus better used to evaluate a player and to project future performance.

WAR alone is not to be used to evaluate a player.

It is highly subjective.

WAR is technically not a statistic since a statistic is know to be true, as in this case it is not.

 

[CODE_BLUE56]

To be fair, most front offices these days (there are a few stragglers) use some form of runs/wins calculation (some of them similar to what the nerds on FanGraphs use, most are proprietary) in conjunction with scouting to build a team. You of course need to score runs to generate wins. The subjectivity is in how each weight is assigned, but even those have a mathematical basis. Every single statistic in use is flawed because baseball is inherently random, but there are certain statistics that are more correlative and thus better used to evaluate a player and to project future performance.

right...alot of FOs do use certain metrics and run/wins calculations because they are usually more inclusive than principle stats such as RBIs..but at the same time it still lacks alot of context thus there is a certain aspect of skepticism that should accompanies these

as mentioned...the stats are very subjective...not only in how they are made, but how they are interpreted,used, as well as different formulas that encompass the same metric(for example calculated WAR on fangraph vs. WAR on baseball reference)

i think a bit of these metrics try too hard to cover all aspects of a players game(baserunning...defense...getting on base..etc.)..thus they lose the idea that the principle stats still hold alot of weight...especially slugging which i noticed is one big issue i have with WAR

another issue with WAR and other value metrics is that they're aggregate(obviously)...thus you're simply taking all other aspects,meshing it together, and calling it a standard...its basically quantifying an idea "this player is the 5th best player in the league"..but it gets more specific than that

stats and metrics are not only inherently flawed because it is trying to quantify the randomness of baseball, but also because there is no perfect translation between data and actuality...two completely different dimensions and entities..you have real life vs numbers..this is why the eye test and scouting reports are still very important

i'm not saying that metrics suck...they dont....but its important to know they are flawed and know how to use them...i particularly like wOBA because it does not underscore slugging...a good judge for offense but of course has flaws

 

[Shawon0Meter]

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FKitvyywkG8]the very big pool splash - YouTube[/ame]

 

[DewsSox79]

right...alot of FOs do use certain metrics and run/wins calculations because they are usually more inclusive than principle stats such as RBIs..but at the same time it still lacks alot of context thus there is a certain aspect of skepticism that should accompanies these

as mentioned...the stats are very subjective...not only in how they are made, but how they are interpreted,used, as well as different formulas that encompass the same metric(for example calculated WAR on fangraph vs. WAR on baseball reference)

i think a bit of these metrics try too hard to cover all aspects of a players game(baserunning...defense...getting on base..etc.)..thus they lose the idea that the principle stats still hold alot of weight...especially slugging which i noticed is one big issue i have with WAR

another issue with WAR and other value metrics is that they're aggregate(obviously)...thus you're simply taking all other aspects,meshing it together, and calling it a standard...its basically quantifying an idea "this player is the 5th best player in the league"..but it gets more specific than that

stats and metrics are not only inherently flawed because it is trying to quantify the randomness of baseball, but also because there is no perfect translation between data and actuality...two completely different dimensions and entities..you have real life vs numbers..this is why the eye test and scouting reports are still very important

i'm not saying that metrics suck...they dont....but its important to know they are flawed and know how to use them...i particularly like wOBA because it does not underscore slugging...a good judge for offense but of course has flawes

This.

 

[Captain Obvious]

Why would I use $50MM to pay for 10 wins when I could just call up guys in-house who can already do that, some of whom aren't 26 years old yet? Yeah, it'd cover his "floor" but it's just not a very good use of money especially for a team on the mend. I'd rather they spent less on the allegedly younger Cubans than on Cespedes to be honest.

You have to treat Cespedes like he was a draftee. You pay him the $50MM because you expect him to be a $100MM man. You use the $100MM as your minimum expectation for production (in WAR$) even though you only paid him half that. Otherwise there's no way you can consider this kind of deal a success. You only commit that money if you're balls-to-the-wall sure he can be that $100MM man. He's still a prospect, which is why you can justify paying him less than that sum.

If you have any other 26-year-old who is past his arbitration years and who only gives you two wins a season, there's no way you give him a 5-6 year/$50MM contract. No competent GM would do that. You keep paying him anywhere between league minimum and $2MM to be average. You don't give him 8 figures.

You would use 50 MM to pay for 10 wins because that's the market value. It's pretty simple. You can't treat Cespedes like a draftee because he's not. He's an IFA. You treat him like an IFA. The deal is a success if he is worth the contract. It's as simple as that. When you draft a guy, he's not going to be ready for the MLB, Cespedes(other than a month or so) is ready. Again, we'd be giving him 50 million for his upside. To be worth the contract, he only has to be a decently average CFer and with the trend of declining offense, that only helps his numbers with the bat. It's not a huge stretch of the imagination. Even in the FA market, you basically pay for what you'll get. You're generally lucky if a player is worth it. Cespedes offers something that few FA's can--the ability to completely outperform his contract. Scouts love him and his athleticism and I'm saying he needs to be an average CFer in a relatively easy CF to play.

Just looking at the statistics Cespedes compiled in Cuba, there isn’t a glaring weakness which looks to tank his game upon landing with an American (or Torontonian) squad. He was as complete as a player can be in any league. Much of his value depends on his ability to play center field, of which there seems to be optimism around scouts. His Cuban numbers seem to suggest above-average power for the position already, and with any sort of plate discipline he has the ability to push an All-Star level in MLB. With his power and his superior athleticism and strength, the risk factor for Cespedes seems lower than with other relative unknown players, and the reward if he reaches his potential could be incredible.

Can Yoenis Cespedes Showcase Talents In MLB? | FanGraphs Baseball

Since there is a hang up on subjectivity with WAR, I'll post the ZiPS projections, which are objective.

"For 2008 through 2011, ZiPS projected that Ramirez's line would be .269 AVG/.316 OBP/.418 SLG , and his actual line was .279/.323/.421. So that gives us some hope for the Cespedes projection."

Here's what he sees for Cespedes:

Year	BA	 OBP	 SLG	 HR	RBI	SB	WAR
2012	.270	.331	.435	23	86	9	3.3
2013	.269	.331	.439	23	84	9	3.4
2014	.267	.330	.435	22	83	8	3.2
2015	.268	.330	.436	22	82	8	3.1
2016	.264	.327	.428	21	79	7	2.8
2017	.263	.324	.418	19	74	6	2.5
2018	.259	.320	.402	17	66	5	1.9
2019	.256	.314	.386	13	54	4	1.3

Here's my addendum :

WAR	 yValue ($M)	cValue ($M)
2012	3.3	 16.5	 16.5
2013	3.4	 17.9	 34.4
2014	3.2	 17.6	 52.0
2015	3.1	 17.9	 69.9
2016	2.8	 17.0	 87.0
2017	2.5	 16.0	 102.9
2018	1.9	 12.7	 115.6
2019	1.3	 9.1	 124.8

Note: The above uses the common assumption of 5% salary inflation.

Looks like a $30M investment or so would yield a very nice return.

Toronto Blue Jays

ZiPS is the best of the best when it comes to projections, so if we're going to use projections, which I believe qualifies as using all available statistical and metrical data available, these are the ones to use.

How many times do me and FT have to take you out to the field and beat you on this site about this subject? WAR=subjective as **** and I will repeat, use with all other available statistical and metrical data available, plus the eye ball, plus scouting reports and full lenght documentation on his performance in the "pony" league. This isnt hard to understand.....you use all available stats,metrics,your own eyes, documentation How many more fucking times do I have to spell it out for you? using WAR by itself....get the **** out of here.

You're advocating using the eye ball? Really? Isn't that what we have scouts for? Your eyes aren't a reliable source of information. Period. Also, I was using WAR as a basis for contractual obligation. Last time I checked, you didn't have anything like that. Or am I wrong? All I am saying is that the market value is for a win is 5 million, which is pretty accurate. So unless you have some other way of valuing a win, please kindly **** off.

He just doesn't understand when you say to use everything available, he registers it as "I should look up a bunch of stats that I'm too lazy to find. It is much easier to use one random stat I don't know how to use properly at once."

I don't know how to use it properly. LOL. right. Why don't you make your own argument and stop piggybacking off of everyone else? You can't even stand your own ground, quit being a little *****.

WAR alone is not to be used to evaluate a player.

It is highly subjective.

WAR is technically not a statistic since a statistic is know to be true, as in this case it is not.

No one is claiming it is a fact. It's conjecture... just highly informed conjecture. Here's an idea... instead of pointing out all the problems, point out the solution.

 

[Jntg4]

You would use 50 MM to pay for 10 wins because that's the market value. It's pretty simple. You can't treat Cespedes like a draftee because he's not. He's an IFA. You treat him like an IFA. The deal is a success if he is worth the contract. It's as simple as that. When you draft a guy, he's not going to be ready for the MLB, Cespedes(other than a month or so) is ready. Again, we'd be giving him 50 million for his upside. To be worth the contract, he only has to be a decently average CFer and with the trend of declining offense, that only helps his numbers with the bat. It's not a huge stretch of the imagination. Even in the FA market, you basically pay for what you'll get. You're generally lucky if a player is worth it. Cespedes offers something that few FA's can--the ability to completely outperform his contract. Scouts love him and his athleticism and I'm saying he needs to be an average CFer in a relatively easy CF to play.



Can Yoenis Cespedes Showcase Talents In MLB? | FanGraphs Baseball

Since there is a hang up on subjectivity with WAR, I'll post the ZiPS projections, which are objective.



Toronto Blue Jays

ZiPS is the best of the best when it comes to projections, so if we're going to use projections, which I believe qualifies as using all available statistical and metrical data available, these are the ones to use.



You're advocating using the eye ball? Really? Isn't that what we have scouts for? Your eyes aren't a reliable source of information. Period. Also, I was using WAR as a basis for contractual obligation. Last time I checked, you didn't have anything like that. Or am I wrong? All I am saying is that the market value is for a win is 5 million, which is pretty accurate. So unless you have some other way of valuing a win, please kindly **** off.


I don't know how to use it properly. LOL. right. Why don't you make your own argument and stop piggybacking off of everyone else? You can't even stand your own ground, quit being a little *****.



No one is claiming it is a fact. It's conjecture... just highly informed conjecture. Here's an idea... instead of pointing out all the problems, point out the solution.

1. That's what you were doing when fapping to his swing...

2. I was the first one arguing with you. Stop being a little *****.

 

[ZDemp34]

Cespedes(other than a month or so) is ready.

If Cuba = A ball, then he's probably not.

 

[Rice Cube]

You have to treat Cespedes like he was a prospect, which is why you don't pay him market rate. If you have a pre-arbitration Albert Pujols giving you six wins, you still pay him the $600K, you don't give him $30MM.

If you pay Cespedes $50MM with the thought that he's a two-win player each season, then that's technically a break-even, but there's no way in hell you can think of that as a successful contract because you just paid an unknown entity more than Marlon Byrd to basically be Marlon Byrd. I'm afraid there's no other way but to say that's a really stupid use of money.

As for using the eyeball, given that nobody knows how Cespedes' skillset will translate to MLB for sure, they have to rely on scouting.