Yoenis Cespedes Granted Free Agency

[DewsSox79]

You would use 50 MM to pay for 10 wins because that's the market value. It's pretty simple. You can't treat Cespedes like a draftee because he's not. He's an IFA. You treat him like an IFA. The deal is a success if he is worth the contract. It's as simple as that. When you draft a guy, he's not going to be ready for the MLB, Cespedes(other than a month or so) is ready. Again, we'd be giving him 50 million for his upside. To be worth the contract, he only has to be a decently average CFer and with the trend of declining offense, that only helps his numbers with the bat. It's not a huge stretch of the imagination. Even in the FA market, you basically pay for what you'll get. You're generally lucky if a player is worth it. Cespedes offers something that few FA's can--the ability to completely outperform his contract. Scouts love him and his athleticism and I'm saying he needs to be an average CFer in a relatively easy CF to play.



Can Yoenis Cespedes Showcase Talents In MLB? | FanGraphs Baseball

Since there is a hang up on subjectivity with WAR, I'll post the ZiPS projections, which are objective.



Toronto Blue Jays

ZiPS is the best of the best when it comes to projections, so if we're going to use projections, which I believe qualifies as using all available statistical and metrical data available, these are the ones to use.



You're advocating using the eye ball? Really? Isn't that what we have scouts for? Your eyes aren't a reliable source of information. Period. Also, I was using WAR as a basis for contractual obligation. Last time I checked, you didn't have anything like that. Or am I wrong? All I am saying is that the market value is for a win is 5 million, which is pretty accurate. So unless you have some other way of valuing a win, please kindly **** off.


I don't know how to use it properly. LOL. right. Why don't you make your own argument and stop piggybacking off of everyone else? You can't even stand your own ground, quit being a little *****.



No one is claiming it is a fact. It's conjecture... just highly informed conjecture. Here's an idea... instead of pointing out all the problems, point out the solution.

Bold 1- you are a fucking idiot. "oh about a month or so" How do you know this when he has NEVER seen anything close to the MLB. god you are fucking stupid.

Bod 2- The whole debate on valuing a "win" is NOT fucking real. There are way way too many issues with the formula.

 

[Rice Cube]

There's a reason everyone's so high on this "kid"...I just know it!

The Latest On Yoenis Cespedes: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

 

[DewsSox79]

There's a reason everyone's so high on this "kid"...I just know it!

The Latest On Yoenis Cespedes: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

.

 

[DewsSox79]

as of right now looks like marlins are the front runner

 

[Captain Obvious]

Bold 1- you are a fucking idiot. "oh about a month or so" How do you know this when he has NEVER seen anything close to the MLB. god you are fucking stupid.

Bod 2- The whole debate on valuing a "win" is NOT fucking real. There are way way too many issues with the formula.

Yeah man, a win isn't real. Yeah. Totes McGoats.

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4JZFH4_xXY]Theo Epstein with D&C - YouTube[/ame]

Let's forget that it's used in MLB FO's. Yep. Totally too many issues. That's why MLB FO's use it. Yep.

As for "Bold 1"-- Why would we invest 50 million dollars in a guy and let him chill in the minors? Plus, have you seen past history? Contreras started 6 games. Chapman had 95 IP. Alexei didn't even play in the minors at all. It's not to hard to see that he won't be spending a lot of time in the minors.

 

[Jntg4]

Yeah man, a win isn't real. Yeah. Totes McGoats.

Theo Epstein with D&C - YouTube

Let's forget that it's used in MLB FO's. Yep. Totally too many issues. That's why MLB FO's use it. Yep.

As for "Bold 1"-- Why would we invest 50 million dollars in a guy and let him chill in the minors? Plus, have you seen past history? Contreras started 6 games. Chapman had 95 IP. Alexei didn't even play in the minors at all. It's not to hard to see that he won't be spending a lot of time in the minors.

You keep him in the minors until you are positive that he is ready... it's kind of OBVIOUS.

And you're comparing Cespedes to pitchers, it isn't exactly apples to apples. Alexei spent no time in the minors because they found out in spring training that he was ready indeed, but that doesn't mean that the same will happen for Cespedes. You can not say with any certainty that he will be in the majors after one month. Scouts (I thought they were useless CO?) say he should be ready, but that is also just a guess and they won't know for sure until he gets his first games on American soil played.

 

[Tex Rebresh]

Hope he brings some cigars with

 

[FirstTimer]

Cuban league is better than A ball..

Not according to most scouts.

Yeah man, a win isn't real. Yeah. Totes [/url]
way to no understand the argument.

As usual.

Let's forget that it's used in MLB FO's. Yep. Totally too many issues. That's why MLB FO's use it. Yep.

As for "Bold 1"-- Why would we invest 50 million dollars in a guy and let him chill in the minors?

Because maybe you find out when he gets here he's not ready for MLB ball...?

Just a guess?


LOL at you being so staunch about WAR because MLB Front offices may use it in some capacity..to what extent you don't know.

Hey, I bet they use RBI's too!

Good to see the clown prince of the Cubs forum is still up to his same old BS.

 

[Rice Cube]

I'm fairly certain that Theo doesn't use RBIs as an evaluator of talent, but does use some derivative of run projections to determine projected win total. Since that system is proprietary (between the Cubs and the company that sets up the computer software for them) we don't know whether they use FanGraphs-available metrics (which would be kind of dumb since they don't want to give away their stuff, and that would mean that any guy with a scientific calculator and Excel could be a GM, which isn't true) or something that people haven't even thought of (which is likely considering the need to always stay one step ahead of the competition).

Not to discount the important of scoring runs and notching wins, but just sayin'.

 

[FirstTimer]

Rice, I was being pseudo sarcastic.

LOL at CO thinking Theo is in his office at Wrigley looking at Fangraphs WAR projections.

 

[Rice Cube]

Rice, I was being pseudo sarcastic.

LOL at CO thinking Theo is in his office at Wrigley looking at Fangraphs WAR projections.

Oh, I know you were. That was more directed to people in general. If all you needed to use was FanGraphs to run a baseball team, then the owners wouldn't need GMs and GMs wouldn't need assistant GMs and scouts.

 

[Captain Obvious]

You keep him in the minors until you are positive that he is ready... it's kind of OBVIOUS.

And you're comparing Cespedes to pitchers, it isn't exactly apples to apples. Alexei spent no time in the minors because they found out in spring training that he was ready indeed, but that doesn't mean that the same will happen for Cespedes. You can not say with any certainty that he will be in the majors after one month. Scouts (I thought they were useless CO?) say he should be ready, but that is also just a guess and they won't know for sure until he gets his first games on American soil played.

Why does he need to be in the minors till he's ready? It's not like we're going anywhere this year. I never said with any certainty that he'd be in the majors after a month. You're right we don't know, but we can let him figure shit out in the majors since we aren't in a position to compete this year. If we're paying him regardless we might as well let him play against the top talent.

Because maybe you find out when he gets here he's not ready for MLB ball...?

Just a guess?

Right. Because it's going to hurt out MLB team so much. We might go from 4th place to 5th place in the division. End of the world.

LOL at you being so staunch about WAR because MLB Front offices may use it in some capacity..to what extent you don't know.

Hey, I bet they use RBI's too!

Good to see the clown prince of the Cubs forum is still up to his same old BS.

Considering that Theo said in there that RBI's aren't relevant, I kinda doubt they use RBIs. You're right, I don't know to what extent. But given that he said that it's the best way, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that it's going to be used the most.

Rice, I was being pseudo sarcastic.

LOL at CO thinking Theo is in his office at Wrigley looking at Fangraphs WAR projections.

Never said that. Nor did the video. Did you watch it? I don't think you did. He uses something that is in the same family. His words, not mine.

 

[Rice Cube]

I don't think they would spend that much money on a guy if he had to spend substantial time in the minors. I also don't think they would bank on him being a "can't-miss" guy because he's been missing a lot (on his swings that is). If it comes down to it, if Cespedes is getting paid that $50MM for five or six years, I hope the Marlins do it because at that point the risk doesn't justify the projected reward. He's still just a prospect.

 

[Rice Cube]

Who's got Insider?

Yoenis Cespedes is compared to Colby Rasmus, Adam Jones and others by big league execs - MLB - ESPN

 

[FirstTimer]

Right. Because it's going to hurt out MLB team so much.

It's not about just hurting the MLB team you narrow minded twat.

It's about stunting Cespedes development by throwing him into the fire. Right now dude hasn't played anything higher than what amounts to High A baseball and is having MAJOR issues at the plate right now regardless of how/why you want to dismiss it.

If Yoenis isn't ready for MLB then don't have him there. Get him AB's and work him up through the system. That doesn't mean he can't see the field in the MLB level at some point this season but doesn't mean he needs to be thrown at there right away.

We might go from 4th place to 5th place in the division. End of the world.

You're a moron.

If the above is the case.....then it could also make sense to not rush him if it's not needed because him being at the MLB level or not doesn't matter. If playing AA and AAA ball this year helps the future of the team do that. If he's ready, he's ready.

Stop being dense.

You're right, I don't know to what extent

Exactly.

Go away.

Keep building shitty teams and theories by adding up WAR.

Leave teh real baseball talk to the rest of us.



LOL at Theo in his office pooring over fangraphs.

CO is cute with his ignorance.

 

[ZAN]

Haven't read the entire thread; but here's my two cents.

I'm interested in Cespedes, but not at the price he's probably wanting. Cuban ball is nothing more than A+ level minor league ball. While he raked at that level, and is probably deserving of immediate top 15 MLB prospect status, I'd value Domonic Brown of the Philadelphia Phillies more highly than this kid. Coming in, this Cespedes is probably Bubba Starling level as far as where he should be projected.

No way I shell out what he's asking for...especially at 27 (and probably older). The Soler kid is safer money, and is certifiably younger.

 

[FirstTimer]

BTW CO...

From ESPN:

In the end, the debate is not over Cespedes' unquestioned upside as much as it is the chances of him reaching that ceiling. Most agree that he'll need up to three months in Triple-A to shake the rust off and get used to playing in a major league organization, and the projections for just how much he will hit, as opposed to strike out, range wildly. That ceiling is still far too alluring for some teams, and a projected deal of $40 million for five years has equal chances of being bargain or bust.

Hold.

mah.

Dick.

:yeah:

 

[Jntg4]

Why does he need to be in the minors till he's ready? It's not like we're going anywhere this year. I never said with any certainty that he'd be in the majors after a month. You're right we don't know, but we can let him figure shit out in the majors since we aren't in a position to compete this year. If we're paying him regardless we might as well let him play against the top talent.



Right. Because it's going to hurt out MLB team so much. We might go from 4th place to 5th place in the division. End of the world.




Considering that Theo said in there that RBI's aren't relevant, I kinda doubt they use RBIs. You're right, I don't know to what extent. But given that he said that it's the best way, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that it's going to be used the most.




Never said that. Nor did the video. Did you watch it? I don't think you did. He uses something that is in the same family. His words, not mine.

So he doesn't lose his confidence and bust. Confidence is a real factor that can't be seen in WAR projections.

 

[cubsneedmiracle]

More and More I see.. I'm really on the fence with him..

 

[Rice Cube]

Giants Notes: Cespedes, Ramirez, Torres: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

Not a huge surprise here, but Sabean said that the Giants won't go after Yoenis Cespedes, tweets Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. "The price tag is probably beyond what his talent is," the GM said. The outfielder still has a number of suitors including the Marlins, Cubs, White Sox, Orioles, and Tigers.

It's not every day I agree with Brian Sabean.