You're the GM (Game)

DanTown

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What I've seen is them low ball the #1 and sign some hard to sign guys.

They know what they are doing. They built the Padre's pitching staff. That guy Ross. Ya he was one of those. Think Kluber was one of their picks.


Mobile-friendly - Photo of Corey Kluber. Corey Kluber ... Drafted by the San Diego Padres in the 4th round of the 2007 amateur draft.

You never know. The track record speaks for itself

Tyson Ross was a former second round pick who came up through Oakland and was traded to them in 2013. Jed Hoyer/ Jason McLeod were Cubs in 2011.

Corey Kluber was never great in the Padres and had reached AA at age 24 without great success at any level before being traded. Also, Kluber wasn't drafted by Hoyer/McLeod but was traded by that group.

If you want to speak to their ability to build a staff, leave SD out of it.
 

beckdawg

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The reasoning is Arrieta should command 25 mil.

Think this is being a bit light. Kershaw got 7 yrs/$215M($30.7) though that bought out some arbitration IIRC. Scherzer got 7 yrs/$210M($30 mil). Price just got 7yrs/$217 mil. Arrieta may not have the biggest track record but given what he's been the past 2 years it's hard to say he shouldn't get $30 mil. Now from waht I've heard Arrieta wants to re-sign so maybe you get a discount but if it's 2 years from now you're talking another $1-2 mil/season in inflation alone. And if I'm not mistaken Boras is his agent so even at a discount he's not going to be cheap.
 

CSF77

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If Theo is smart he cuts him a deal this year. Say 12 this year 16 next then 22 in 2018, 25 mil til the end of the deal. I would let it run until he turns 36 then give option years at lower rates if he wants to keep a Cub. I see it as he is the Ace until 34-36 then after he becomes a mentor for the next wave and he falls back in the rotation while his price tag goes down. Kinda a peak price over his peak earning years plus some safety in his later years.

In reality he will hit the market and his window is 5 years that he can try to get as much as he can vs having a long term investment that is reasonable.


Say he avg 25 mil per on a 5. 125 mil.

He will be 30 on opening day. That puts him at 32 on his F/A opening day. So a 5 year window puts him at 36 at the close of his earnings window.

Vs a extention that nets him that avg earnings window plus buying out his 2 years of arb. Then giving mutual option years after. They could pull a 8-10 year deal that way if he holds up.
 

CSF77

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But the main point is if they did that and then gave Lackey a 2 year deal. I'm guessing it takes 30 mil to sign but who knows. 37 yo. You would have to look at a.j. Burnett. Made 15 mil at 37 and 8.5 at 38. Year to year is realistic at that age
 

TL1961

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Tell Lackey you are willing to quadruple his 2015 salary.
 

chibears55

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Arrieta will be a F/A in 2 years.

Ask your self this:

If signing shark to a deal prevents extending Arrieta and they are forced to trade him in 2017 due to contract restraints. Are you still behind investing into him?

The reasoning is Arrieta should command 25 mil. Lester is making 25 mil. So 50 mil to 2 guys. Then add 20 mil to Shark. 70 mil. Now they are getting into some arb cases of Bryant, Russell, Schwarber. Add to it Rizzo's deal has increased.

That is an arguemnt for Lackey on a 2 year deal. He is off the books at the same time Arrieta is up for extention. Add to it that is the point that the big wave of pitching talent hits. In AA this year will be Underwood. So that is just the start of that depth that they have been stocking up at the lower levels.

Or what if Arrieta ends up being just an ok pitcher or worse these next 2 years ...
Yes he had 2 good years and hopefully he has 2 more but let not assume now he going to be a 25+ mil pitcher in 3 yrs and be afraid to sign a high cost starter now.

If the cubs end up with guys like Lackey , Lohse, Leake, or Lee as their big FA pitcher signing. .yea ok maybe they upgraded a little over Haren for the regular season but they did nothing to really improve themselves for a world series run with those guys...

Think some of you need to quit worrying too much about the Cubs payroll come 2018 and beyond to justify accepting mediocre players now who you think fits some unknown budget and will be possibly a slight upgrade...

As a fan you should want and expect them to get the best player(s) that they can get...
 

CSF77

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Or what if Arrieta ends up being just an ok pitcher or worse these next 2 years ...
Yes he had 2 good years and hopefully he has 2 more but let not assume now he going to be a 25+ mil pitcher in 3 yrs and be afraid to sign a high cost starter now.

If the cubs end up with guys like Lackey , Lohse, Leake, or Lee as their big FA pitcher signing. .yea ok maybe they upgraded a little over Haren for the regular season but they did nothing to really improve themselves for a world series run with those guys...

Think some of you need to quit worrying too much about the Cubs payroll come 2018 and beyond to justify accepting mediocre players now who you think fits some unknown budget and will be possibly a slight upgrade...

As a fan you should want and expect them to get the best player(s) that they can get...

You are right and time will tell. Still it is not too often where a guy just pitches to that level of dominance then just falls off the map. I no hitter etc I get. Guy's stuff was just on for that 1 game. We saw that with Kerry and his 20 SO game. But to pull a whole half a year like that and just fall back to nothing.... very unlikely. Now if he got a dead arm and never recovered from it I could buyit. But just becoming a meh after that dominate run...doubtful.

Guys like that will themselves to that level. That was not based off of luck or raw talent. He put it together. I expect more 20 win runs to be honest and teams not wanting to face him.
 

CSF77

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http://www.csnchicago.com/cubs/why-john-lackey-would-make-lot-sense-cubs

Connecting the dots between the Cubs and John Lackey is too easy.

The Cubs certainly feel some level of anxiety about handing out another megadeal to a 30-something pitcher, and Theo Epstein’s front office obviously has a comfort zone with people who used to work at Fenway Park.

Now that the Boston Red Sox have given David Price the largest contract for a pitcher in baseball history – for the moment at least – the dominos should start falling in the run-up to next week’s winter meetings in Nashville, Tennessee.

Coming off a 97-win season and still dealing with limited financial flexibility, the Cubs didn’t have Boston’s sense of urgency to fix a last-place team, or that glaring need at the top of the rotation, even though Price sent out signals that he wanted to come to Chicago.

It at least got to a point where Price’s camp called the Cubs when he made the final decision to accept Boston’s seven-year, $217 million offer.

But Jon Lester still has five guaranteed seasons left on the richest contract in franchise history, a six-year, $155 million deal that represented a $20-million markup from what the Red Sox were willing to pay for a frontline starter last December.

[MORE: Cubs have options with David Price heading to Red Sox for $217 million]

The Cubs also have Jake Arrieta under club control for only two more seasons, and reigning Cy Young Award winner plus Scott Boras client usually doesn’t equal a long-term extension.

Lackey makes a lot of sense if the Cubs want to avoid a risky long-term commitment, save some bullets for the future and upgrade their rotation with a reliable veteran starter who has a career 3.11 ERA in 127-plus postseason innings.

Lackey declined the one-year, $15.8 million qualifying offer from the St. Louis Cardinals after going 13-10 with a 2.77 ERA during his age-36 season, so he would also cost a draft pick, though that calculus has changed for a franchise in win-now mode.

Lackey worked for the major-league minimum this year, part of a creative contract drawn up when Epstein had been Boston’s general manager. Unlike virtually all the other pitchers linked to the Cubs now, Lackey already scored the biggest deal of his career.

That five-year, $82.5 million contract saw Lackey put up a 6.41 ERA in 2011, miss the 2012 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery and help the Red Sox win the 2013 World Series.

Lackey had an icy relationship with the Boston media, but reshaped his image after the fried-chicken-and-beer controversy and still brings an edge to the clubhouse.

Cubs manager Joe Maddon saw it in the rookie as Mike Scioscia’s bench coach for the Anaheim Angels, watching Lackey beat the San Francisco Giants in Game 7 of the 2002 World Series.

[RELATED: Another big free agent splash coming for Cubs?]

“He was always kind of fearless,” Maddon said. “He comes from Texas, kind of does the John Wayne strut out there. He’s that guy.”

Lackey remains tight with Lester after their time together in Boston, a connection that became a storyline before Game 1 of the National League division series.

“I know Lack,” Lester said in October. “He’s just such a good competitor. He’s going to almost out-will you sometimes, if that makes sense. I learned a lot from him in Boston.

“Our friendship will go beyond this game, it will go beyond our careers, and it’s something that means a lot to me.”

Lackey won Game 1 at Busch Stadium and then got rocked on short rest in Game 4, with Javier Baez drilling a 94-mph fastball into the Wrigley Field bleachers for a three-run homer that helped eliminate the Cardinals. The Cubs went through almost 500 bottles of champagne that night.

[NBC SHOP: Gear up, Cubs fans!]

Money talks in the end, but the Cubs will make any free agent pay attention with a competitive offer.

“It’s a popular destination,” general manager Jed Hoyer said. “It’s a great city. It’s a great ballpark, a great manager and coaching staff. I still think the trump card is always the drought. I think everyone wants to be a part of the team that wins in Chicago.

“I felt like in Boston, after 2003, we turned that corner as well. We were a fun team (with) a lot of talent. We went to the ALCS and lost (to the Yankees in Game 7). After that year, a lot of people were like: ‘Hey, I watched the playoffs on TV. That looked like a fun team.’

“People love playing in Fenway, and I think this is very similar in a lot of ways. We got to the NLCS (and) they got to see us play. I do think that being on that national stage and seeing our kids play on a daily basis, they realized how talented we were. Add in Wrigley (and) a new clubhouse (and) then the drought – it’s a really good recipe to lure players.”
 

CSF77

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Est Arb contracts on MLTR:

Chris Coghlan (5.148) – $3.9MM
Travis Wood (5.004) – $6.4MM
Pedro Strop (4.156) – $4.7MM
Jake Arrieta (4.145) – $10.6MM
Hector Rondon (3.000) – $3.6MM
Justin Grimm (2.170) – $1.0MM

30.2


guaranteed contracts:

25 Lester
14 Montero
13 Jackson
9 Hammel
7.857 Castro
5.285 Rizzo
3.67 Soler
2.5 Ross
Clayton Richard (5.154) – $2MM
Brothers 1.42


84,929,524



9 roster spots at .500k 4.5MM (not getting into the few thousand pay hikes. Not significant.

119.629

Need to add a CF and 1 mid tier SP. I see them at 20 mil to spend for both.

Now moving Baez to CF is a risk and it doesn't fix the lead off issue.

Guys out there:

Span: Have not heard much on him. Victorino has gone back to switch hitting. Little bit of a risk but could be a potential buy low with a Boston connection.

Pitching: Think Lackey would be idea. Have to think 15 mil would be his price this year. Might be a bit rich. Maeda is going to be posted. 60 mil with a 20 mil posting fee is what is being said.
I'm not seeing them paying 20 mil up front when they have only 20 mil to spend. So doubtful at best.

IDK Victerino at 5 mil and Lackey at 15 mil. Covers the 20 mil window. They still have Almora at AAA. Can promote Szczur if Vic has any issues. Both have connections to Theo and Jed.

Almost believable and fits into budget.
 

JimJohnson

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All of this Arrieta $30M+ talk has got to stop. Guy had a really amazing 2015 but his FA is not for a couple more years. He will need to continue pitching at last year's level if he wants $30M. If he drops off a little, he will be at $25M. If he drops off considerably, he will be at $20-$22.
 

brett05

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Think this is being a bit light. Kershaw got 7 yrs/$215M($30.7) though that bought out some arbitration IIRC. Scherzer got 7 yrs/$210M($30 mil). Price just got 7yrs/$217 mil. Arrieta may not have the biggest track record but given what he's been the past 2 years it's hard to say he shouldn't get $30 mil. N

You just explained perfectly why Jake doesn't get paid like the rest at this time.
 

beckdawg

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You just explained perfectly why Jake doesn't get paid like the rest at this time.

Perhaps, but my point was $25 mil doesn't buy you much these days. I mean Cueto might get $23-24 and Arrieta the past 2 seasons has pitched on a higher level. Plus, top end pitching tends to go up around a million a year.
 

brett05

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Perhaps, but my point was $25 mil doesn't buy you much these days. I mean Cueto might get $23-24 and Arrieta the past 2 seasons has pitched on a higher level. Plus, top end pitching tends to go up around a million a year.
True, but Arrieta has to show the track record. If you say for the next five years you can have Cueto or Jake for the same money I lean toward most people taking Cueto.
 

beckdawg

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True, but Arrieta has to show the track record. If you say for the next five years you can have Cueto or Jake for the same money I lean toward most people taking Cueto.

I think most people would disagree with that actually. I mean I understand where you're coming from but 2 years is long enough to no longer be a fluke. Cueto's best 3 seasons in terms of fWAR were 4.7, 4.6, and 4.1. That's 13.4 fWAR. Arrieta last season was worth 7.3 and the season before was worth 5. So, you're talking about Arrieta basically matching Cueto's value over 3 seasons in 2. Obviously WAR isn't the end all for value but jake's clearly got a higher top end.
 

TC in Mississippi

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True, but Arrieta has to show the track record. If you say for the next five years you can have Cueto or Jake for the same money I lean toward most people taking Cueto.

I have to believe that if Arrieta was a FA this year he would get a bigger deal than Cueto. There are still some, including MLB Network's Steve Philips a former GM himself, that think Cueto will be left standing after the winter meetings with Greinke, Shark and even guys like Mike Leake off the board. Cueto was inconsistent after the trade to KC, brilliant at times and downright bad at others. As Philips put it he's exactly the kind of guy that gets GMs fired and I agree with him, he has that look. That's not to
say he won't succeed, he's been very good for a long time, but there are warning signs. Philips does not think he'll get another 6/$120 offer like Arizona offered. I think he will but not the 6/$144 or more he's asking for.

Arrieta on the other hand would be a sexy get following a Cy Young win. That often matters with GMs who are sensitive to fan base demands, or owners with that bent. I would think he would get very close to 6/$180 if he were available today.
 

brett05

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I have to believe that if Arrieta was a FA this year he would get a bigger deal than Cueto. There are still some, including MLB Network's Steve Philips a former GM himself, that think Cueto will be left standing after the winter meetings with Greinke, Shark and even guys like Mike Leake off the board. Cueto was inconsistent after the trade to KC, brilliant at times and downright bad at others. As Philips put it he's exactly the kind of guy that gets GMs fired and I agree with him, he has that look. That's not to
say he won't succeed, he's been very good for a long time, but there are warning signs. Philips does not think he'll get another 6/$120 offer like Arizona offered. I think he will but not the 6/$144 or more he's asking for.

Arrieta on the other hand would be a sexy get following a Cy Young win. That often matters with GMs who are sensitive to fan base demands, or owners with that bent. I would think he would get very close to 6/$180 if he were available today.


For a guy that has pitched over 175 innings once. I can't see it. But I am going to drop it. It's all fantasy anyway.
 

chibears55

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If im the Cubs, im spending these next 2 years focusing more on IFA, drafting and trading for young pitching ..so that in 2 to 3 years when Lester, Arrieta, and whomever they sign this off season are at the end, they have some pitching in system to take over...
 

beckdawg

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For a guy that has pitched over 175 innings once. I can't see it. But I am going to drop it. It's all fantasy anyway.

Think you need to look at how he has pitched. He's thrown 170 innings 4 times it's just he was so ineffective early in his career it was often between AAA and MLB. If he had a large injury history I can see that concern but if anything the fewer innings has prolonged his career. If there's a concern over Arrieta IMO it would be whether or not this success is a fluke or not. I think he's for real but obviously in the past that was what limited him.
 

TC in Mississippi

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If im the Cubs, im spending these next 2 years focusing more on IFA, drafting and trading for young pitching ..so that in 2 to 3 years when Lester, Arrieta, and whomever they sign this off season are at the end, they have some pitching in system to take over...

Underwood is very promising but you never know what young arms will do. In a vacuum you could easily say that he's a potential TOR. Dylan Cease as well. That said they do need to find some more pitching. They've actually signed a ton of arms but most of them aren't out of the instructional league.
 

DanTown

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If im the Cubs, im spending these next 2 years focusing more on IFA, drafting and trading for young pitching ..so that in 2 to 3 years when Lester, Arrieta, and whomever they sign this off season are at the end, they have some pitching in system to take over...

Cubs already have started doing this.

2015 draft - Pitchers 6 of top 9 spots
2014 draft - Pitchers 10 of top 12 spots
2013 draft - Pitchers 11 of top 15 spots
2012 draft - Pitchers 7 of top 8 spots

As good as they've been at evaluating hitters, they simply haven't been able to find and develop pitchers.

Since the 2012 draft, here are their pitchers taken in the first 100 picks of a draft

2012
Johnson - AA at age 24; no super improvement from 2014 to 2015
Underwood - Struggles with injuries,
Paul Backburn - Middling pitcher in A+ ball

2013
Rob Zastryzny - Just had a 6.23 ERA at AA ball (age 23)

2014
Jake Stinnett - 4.46 ERA in South Bend (A ball)

2015
Bryan Hudson - HS guy

The Cubs simply don't have a guy (maybe Johnson in two years, Underwood in two-three) who I could project as a future MLB. Obviously someone in that group will probably make it to the majors but you have no idea when, who, or to what level. That's why I think they need to find a guy who will be a positive pitcher for the next four-five years (Price made the most sense but cost the most money).
 

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