You're the GM (Game)

[brett05]

I looked at the top fWAR leaders since 2012 for pitchers. Here's what it takes to be an "ace"

Name (Time in Minors - Innings Pitched) MLB at age #
Kershaw (2 years – 220 IP) MLB at age 20
Scherzer (about a year – 143 IP) MLB at age 23
Price (less than 1 year – 142 IP) MLB at age 22
Sale (a month – 10 IP) MLB at age 21
Hernandez (2 years - 306 IP) MLB at age 19
Grienke (1.5 years - 284) MLB at age 22
Hamels (less than 2 years – 185 IP) MLB at age 22
Verlander (less than a year – 118 IP) MLB at age 22
Lester (3.5 years – 390 IP) MLB at age 22
Wainwright (5.5 years – 786 IP) MLB at age 23

Basically you know within two years if you've got your ace with 80% effectiveness.

 

[beckdawg]

Tanaka is a bit different.

Well you're never going to have an identical example largely because most good pitchers don't break out at 28. Off the top of my head the only other super star pitcher I can think of is Cliff Lee. He threw 179.0 of 5.43 ERA at 25, 202.0 of 3.79 at 26, 200.2 of 4.40 at 27, 97.1 of 6.29 at 28, and finally broke out at 29 with 223.1 innings of 2.54. He still got paid well in FA. Obviously he'd thrown more innings than Arrieta has but like I said you're never gonna have an exact match and what he did throw wasn't all that great.

 

[SilenceS]

The lifespan of a true "Ace" is very short. Only very special pictures are true "Aces" for long periods of time.

 

[DanTown]

If Arreita hits FA in two years, he's looking at about 1200 career innings (both levels). David Price just got 7/217 with 1440 career innings.

It all depends on how much of an outlier last year is when it goes to paying Jake

- Literally not an outlier = 30+ million
- He slightly drops (3 ERA, 3.4 FIP) = 25 million
- He largely drops (3.7 ERA; 3.7 FIP) = 15 million
- It's entirely an outlier (+4 ERA; +4 FIP) = 10 million

 

[knoxville7]

The lifespan of a true "Ace" is very short. Only very special pictures are true "Aces" for long periods of time.

and special pitchers too!

 

[beckdawg]

The thing is, outside of a terrible August, Arrieta has been this pitcher for 2 years.

2014
May - 25.1 IP 3.20 ERA
Jun - 39.1 IP 0.92 ERA
Jul - 33.1 IP 2.70 ERA
Aug - 30.1 IP 5.34 ERA
Sept/Oct - 28.1 IP 0.95 ERA.

2015
Mar/Apr - 26.2 IP 2.03 ERA
May - 38.1 IP 3.99 ERA
Jun - 33.0 IP 2.45 ERA
Jul - 42.2 IP 1.90 ERA
Aug - 42.1 IP 0.43 ERA
Sept/Oct - 46.0 IP 0.39 ERA

Obviously he's not going to be August and Sept/Oct 2015 Arrieta because that was literally the best in the history of the game but he's largely been a 2-2.5 ERA guy for 2 years now. And if you wanna throw in 2013 after the trade he made one July start of 6 innings 1.50 ERA, what looks like 3 August starts for 16.0 IP 5.63 ERA and probably 5 starts in September at 29.2 IP 3.03 ERA. So his short stint post trade was still 3.66 and he was obviously still working on getting back to what he seems to be now. So you're talking about over 425 IP of 2.27 ERA.

Think you'd have a tough time convincing boras to let him go cheap.

 

[DanTown]

Think you'd have a tough time convincing boras to let him go cheap.

I think the problem with Jake getting an extension is that it's really hard for the Cubs to give him incentive to do it unless they pay him up front. If the Cubs went to Jake and offered 6/150 but they try and stagger the payments (i.e 15/20/25/27/30/33), it's not really in Jake's interest (besides long term safety) to take the deal. He's going to get 1/15+ now. Sure he gets the safety that he becomes bad but he also doesn't get anything but that security. If he's good for another two years, he's giving up a potential 100 million.

The deal I think that makes the most sense for both sides is

5 years / 175 million with TO of 30 million in 2020 (becomes vested if he pitches at least 350 innings in 2018/2019 with zero DL time)
25 million for years 2015-2019
500K for ASG appearance
1M/500K/250K for Cy Young voting
2M/1M/500K/250K for MVP voting

Both sides give a little (Cubs pay more for 2015/2016 but save on years 2017-2019 and vice versa for Jake) but makes sense for both too.

 

[beckdawg]

Cubs claimed Edgar Olmos

http://www.bleachernation.com/2015/12/04/cubs-claim-lefty-edgar-olmos-off-of-waivers-from-mariners/

 

[brett05]

I think the problem with Jake getting an extension is that it's really hard for the Cubs to give him incentive to do it unless they pay him up front. If the Cubs went to Jake and offered 6/150 but they try and stagger the payments (i.e 15/20/25/27/30/33), it's not really in Jake's interest (besides long term safety) to take the deal. He's going to get 1/15+ now. Sure he gets the safety that he becomes bad but he also doesn't get anything but that security. If he's good for another two years, he's giving up a potential 100 million.

The deal I think that makes the most sense for both sides is

5 years / 175 million with TO of 30 million in 2020 (becomes vested if he pitches at least 350 innings in 2018/2019 with zero DL time)
25 million for years 2015-2019
500K for ASG appearance
1M/500K/250K for Cy Young voting
2M/1M/500K/250K for MVP voting

Both sides give a little (Cubs pay more for 2015/2016 but save on years 2017-2019 and vice versa for Jake) but makes sense for both too.

Double check your numbers. They don't appear to add up

 

[beckdawg]

Tim Brown ✔ @TBrownYahoo
The Cubs are pretty hot on Lackey at the moment. Talking two- and three-year possibilities.
Retweeted by Jeff Passan

Jesse Rogers @ESPNChiCubs
During pre- Winter Meetings talk w reporters Theo Epstein said Javier Baez will play CF in Puerto Rico this winter

Jesse Rogers @ESPNChiCubs
Theo: “If I had to guess we’ll still probably sign a free agent and make a trade but we're not going to hold ourselves to it.”

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

Kaplan tweeted out that his source says Lackey will end up a Cub. I know for a fact that Kaplan's source is Jed Hoyer. He's coming here, it's a done deal. I bet he gets a third year, too.

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

Also I'm all for Baez playing CF but I would still like to acquire a decent OBP hitter to put at the top of the order. Maybe Span? Baez will undoubtedly get time at SS when Russell is injured.

 

[CSF77]

I've said they should get Lackey. His play off numbers are really good also.

As far as CF I would still take a flyer on Victerino. He would have to be cheap

 

[DanTown]

Lackey isn't terrible. Good bridge of ability + commitment. Just don't go 3 committed years. And I hope that means the Cubs are going after a high level position player (Heyward).

 

[czman]

If this off season is Baez to CF and Lackey the Cubs will be worse next season.

 

[beckdawg]

If this off season is Baez to CF and Lackey the Cubs will be worse next season.

What i have read is they probably will still be looking else where. However, him being able to play CF is basically a good utility. Seeming like he may fulfill the role many thought alcantara would in 2015.

 

[CSF77]

If this off season is Baez to CF and Lackey the Cubs will be worse next season.

Depends how they construct the line up. I would lead off with Rizzo and bat Schwarber 4th. Rizzo is the top OBA bat in the line up and adds a element missing sense Sori lead off. Except he is a better all around hitter.

I wouldn't worry about the loss of RBI's. That is a team issue and should be made up throughout the line up

 

[czman]

Depends how they construct the line up. I would lead off with Rizzo and bat Schwarber 4th. Rizzo is the top OBA bat in the line up and adds a element missing sense Sori lead off. Except he is a better all around hitter.

I wouldn't worry about the loss of RBI's. That is a team issue and should be made up throughout the line up

No it doesn't. They will be worse. I have a crystal ball, they are in short supply so I know you don't have one. They will be worse.

 

[beckdawg]

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 2m2 minutes ago
Sources: Lackey in agreement with #Cubs, two years, $32M-$34M, pending physical.

 

[beckdawg]

Not thrilled about Lackey but not mad either. I'd really like the signing more if he didn't have a QO attached but meh guess can't get too picky. He's pretty consistently been a 3.5-3.75 FIP guy which for $16-17 mil isn't bad especially on 2 year deal.

Bigger question is now who is Lester going to get a hit from....