How are you going to say on one hand you don't know what they will get and then on the other act like it is a good price.
Additionally, history shows us that 37/38 is more likely to fail than 29.
I don't think you have one valid point. We will see what Kazmir and Leake get. My guess is 4@55-60. I would rather have that and the pick. I would rather have two more years before having to go into FA again for another pitcher.
You could have said the same thing about the cards trading for Lackey two trading deadlines ago. We'll see what Leake/Kazmir get but even if they do get less there's no guarantee the cubs would have got them or that they even like them. I just don't see the point in getting so hung up over the 27th pick in the draft. You're unlikely to get a franchise changing player with the 27th pick. And whether or not you actually like Lackey, he's been a consistently decent starter. Since debuting at 23 he's had 2 seasons under 1.9 fWAR. On the contrary he has 12 at or above 1.9 fWAR. If all you get out of him is 2 fWAR he's still as good or better than Leake who's best season was 2.3. And Lackey is coming off a 3.6 season.
Saying he's might fail because he's old is kind of useless statement because there's no guarantee of that. And there's no guarantee a younger pitcher wont fail either. In the past 4 seasons Kazmir's thrown 531 IP. Lackey's through 765. Leake's thrown 777. Kazmir's had injury issues in the past and over the past 3 years has been worth 2.76 fWAR/season. Lackey's been worth 2.8. Leake's been worth 2. So, if we're being honest here, Kazmir has more injury issues. Leake hasn't pitched as well as the other two. Long story short, they are all far from flawless. I mentioned before in this thread I thought Leake made sense but I also seem to remember reading something that suggested he wanted to stay on the west coast. And frankly, i want no part of kazmir.
Like I said before, if you don't like Lackey that's fine but I think it's kinda silly to be at all worried about losing that draft pick.
