You're the GM (Game)

[beckdawg]

If im the Cubs, im spending these next 2 years focusing more on IFA, drafting and trading for young pitching ..so that in 2 to 3 years when Lester, Arrieta, and whomever they sign this off season are at the end, they have some pitching in system to take over...

IFA is out. The cubs are already well over their allotted IFA pool and will only be able to spend $300k on IFA's for the next 2 years. While, you might be able to pick up some interesting arms for $300k, they aren't likely to be top guys. Also, drafting will be tough for two reasons. One the cubs might ya know actually be good for the next few years which means low round picks. On top of that, any QO player they sign kills not only their pick but the money that is associated with that pick which is arguably the bigger deal. That's what ultimately limits teams more so than the picks because you've seen the cubs sign guys like Steele, Sands and Cease while drafting Schwarber cheap and Hudson this past year while going cheaper on Happ.

With that being said, the good news is that cuba is exporting a **** ton of talent in this IFA period. They already signed Yunior Perez for $600k. Perez was outside the top 30 prospects according to BA but was an honorable mention. As for the cuban guys, I'll link you to this. Adrian Morejon is a 16 year old lefty. Cionel Perez is a 19 year old lefty. Norge Ruiz is a 21 year old righty. The cubs are expected to be involved with all 3 of those guys.

So, you're basically looking for awhile anyways at the best the cubs can get being already in the system or about to be with those cubans I mentioned. I feel like I say this a lot but the cubs have more pitching than people realize. It's just low level pitching and as such it hasn't peculated up to top 100 type lists. Cease might be the best potential starter in the cubs system. Underwood has been mentioned some as well but I think he's a name people may know. I've also read that some view Oscar De La Cruz as the second best pitching prospect the cubs have. Then you have guys like Hudson, Steele, Sands, Tseng, Stinette, Clifton, Rob Zastryzny, Daury Torrez(if he's not rule 5 selected), Ryan Williams and Jeremy Null who are not bad names. And obviously there's a pretty high chance they trade for some young pitcher too.

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

Hope we get some movement on the Cubs front soon. I'm getting antsy! I'm starting to think when the smoke clears the guy we sign will be Lackey. I highly doubt he'll repeat his 2015 season but if we can get a decent amount of innings out of him and a a sub .350 ERA, I guess thats about all we can ask for.

Would still be nice to acquire one of the young arms we've discussed (Salazar, Ross, Carasco, Miller, etc). Maybe somebody will accept some prospects.

I still have no idea what we're going to do in CF. Maybe Austin Jackson? Put Russell and his low OBP at lead off? Far from ideal, I would think. If Russell stays healthy, he's going to be awesome -- but he's no Jeter. Jeter had a crazy high OBP his entire career from the get-go.

 

[beckdawg]

As good as they've been at evaluating hitters, they simply haven't been able to find and develop pitchers.

I don't think this is a fair assessment. There's a difference between drafting Schwarber and Bryant top 4 and drafting someone like Underwood and Johnson with the 67 and 43 picks. Also, they haven't drafted a ton of college pitching and what they have were more signability guys. They've drafted mostly HS arms with guys like Steele, Cease, Sands, Underwood, and Hudson and then in turn drafted cheap college guys like Ryan Williams, Jeremy Null and Ryan Kellogg. For example, Stinnett got $1,000,000($250k under slot) while Steele got $1,000,000(Over slot by $640.1K), Sands got $1,100,000(Over slot by $619.4K), and Cease got $1,500,000(Over slot by $1.2305M).

I just don't think it's fair to say they are bad at developing pitchers when frankly they've invested far more in hitting in terms of draft money and the guys they have drafted in their first few classes are guys just now getting to AA/AAA. And to be fair, there's a reason why they drafted hitters. Pitching is risky. With that being said, while there is no obvious case of a top 50 arm in the system at the moment(though Cease might be there soon), they have a number of guys who could be decent 3-5 starters. And while that may not appease the masses, Kyle Hendricks on rookie money is a hell of a lot better than paying Jason Hammel $9 mil. So, when you're able to replace the back of your rotation internally you save lots of money that you can then use else where.

 

[DanTown]

If the Cubs aren't in on either Tyson Ross/trades or Cueto and they're forced to decide where to go after, I'd say the best available guys are

Hisashi Iwakuma - Super solid pitcher who has slightly struggled with injuries but posted a 3.8 WAR and 3.0 WAR (on just 179 innings) in 2013/2014. Pitched a similar rate last year who profiles to Lackey with slightly more injury risk but also three years younger.

Wei-Yin Chen - Solid pitcher the past two seasons (fWAR of 2.5 / 2.8 on sub 200 innings) who has struggled with HR. But a lot of that might be who was his catcher. When he's had Caleb Joseph as his catcher for the past two years, he's been quite HR happy (31 - 193 or one every 6.2 innings) but with Matt Wieters/Steve Clevenger (better defensive catchers), he's been a lot better (11-125 or one every 11.3 innings). If he limits the HR, you could easily get a ton of value here.

Doug Fister - Potential for huge value with the risk he's not good/hurt. He was bad last year but a lot of this may be the way the Nationals have asked him to pitch. When he was a super good pitcher (WAR of 5.1/3.4/4.2) he used all of his pitches with much more regularity (he had five pitches he threw at least 12% of the time and no pitch he threw more than 30%). The Nationals get him and they essentially asked him to be a three pitch guy (two seamer, changeup, and cutter). Without knowing if it's injury related (he has missed time the past two years with a few injuries), if he can get back to throwing more pitches (and the Cubs are the type of team who have had success with letting guys get back to their natural stuff), maybe he's a super value waiting to happen. He's still might have a few years left in the arm (32 in February) and unlike Jeff Z, his cost is unlikely to also count his recovery to his former years.

Note: None of these guys are really difference maker pitchers. I don't feel it's the best route to go (I outlined that a few posts ago with a trade for Ross/signing Cueto) but the Cubs (and especially Theo) might be risk averse to any second/maybe third long term with a pitcher. So if the Cubs do want to find better value in the SP market, I think these guys above offer more than say Shark is reported to cost.

 

[Boobaby1]

Underwood is very promising but you never know what young arms will do. In a vacuum you could easily say that he's a potential TOR. Dylan Cease as well. That said they do need to find some more pitching. They've actually signed a ton of arms but most of them aren't out of the instructional league.

Jonathan Martinez who was the PTBNL in the Darwin Barney deal looks like he could be very serviceable as he had as good as, if not better numbers than Duane Underwood this year.

 

[DanTown]

I don't think this is a fair assessment. There's a difference between drafting Schwarber and Bryant top 4 and drafting someone like Underwood and Johnson with the 67 and 43 picks. Also, they haven't drafted a ton of college pitching and what they have were more signability guys. They've drafted mostly HS arms with guys like Steele, Cease, Sands, Underwood, and Hudson and then in turn drafted cheap college guys like Ryan Williams, Jeremy Null and Ryan Kellogg. For example, Stinnett got $1,000,000($250k under slot) while Steele got $1,000,000(Over slot by $640.1K), Sands got $1,100,000(Over slot by $619.4K), and Cease got $1,500,000(Over slot by $1.2305M).

I just don't think it's fair to say they are bad at developing pitchers when frankly they've invested far more in hitting in terms of draft money and the guys they have drafted in their first few classes are guys just now getting to AA/AAA. And to be fair, there's a reason why they drafted hitters. Pitching is risky. With that being said, while there is no obvious case of a top 50 arm in the system at the moment(though Cease might be there soon), they have a number of guys who could be decent 3-5 starters. And while that may not appease the masses, Kyle Hendricks on rookie money is a hell of a lot better than paying Jason Hammel $9 mil. So, when you're able to replace the back of your rotation internally you save lots of money that you can then use else where.

I'm not saying "why don't they have top end rotation arms" because i know that it's much easier to find them at the top of a draft than later; however, they simply don't have many homegrown arms going through the system with a good pace. The furthest guy they've developed is Johnson and he was a college guy who hasn't shown great stuff in AA. Maybe Underwood gets there but he also isn't at some advanced rate. I get it, the Cubs have spent assets on bats but they simply don't have guys I'd say are even like an Almora prospect (not ready now but probably ready in two years for a limited role). Their best pitchers of Hendricks/Edwards were acquired via trade. And I have no problem with them using hitters to trade for pitching as it's far easier to find/develop hitters. That's why I'd trade for Ross.

 

[85Bears]

I highly doubt he'll repeat his 2015 season but if we can get a decent amount of innings out of him and a a sub .350 ERA, I guess thats about all we can ask for.

A sub .350 season out of Lackey would probably be the single most impressive sports performance in history, so I'll take 2! (Yes, I know what you meant) :lol:

As much as it would have been fun to see another big name arm on the roster, I think the money required to do so would cripple the team in many respects. Yeah, I know, TV deal and all that, but Theo & Jed have gotten us this far - to a miraculous and unexpected season where we knocked the Cardinals out of the playoffs - and so I trust them. I like their approach of building a foundation for sustained success, and the only way to maximize your chances of winning a WS sometime over the next 10 years is to make the playoffs as often as possible over that time frame.

I think gearing up for a single big playoff push is a trap many teams fall into. You shouldn't ever have to switch from "building" to "win now" mode, because "win now" often mortgages your future. I'd rather see the Cubs build an organization that just manages to makes the playoffs 7 out of 10 years. Then hopefully at least one of those years, you get lucky in the playoffs.

 

[chibears55]

Cubs already have started doing this.

2015 draft - Pitchers 6 of top 9 spots
2014 draft - Pitchers 10 of top 12 spots
2013 draft - Pitchers 11 of top 15 spots
2012 draft - Pitchers 7 of top 8 spots

As good as they've been at evaluating hitters, they simply haven't been able to find and develop pitchers.

Since the 2012 draft, here are their pitchers taken in the first 100 picks of a draft

2012
Johnson - AA at age 24; no super improvement from 2014 to 2015
Underwood - Struggles with injuries,
Paul Backburn - Middling pitcher in A+ ball

2013
Rob Zastryzny - Just had a 6.23 ERA at AA ball (age 23)

2014
Jake Stinnett - 4.46 ERA in South Bend (A ball)

2015
Bryan Hudson - HS guy

The Cubs simply don't have a guy (maybe Johnson in two years, Underwood in two-three) who I could project as a future MLB. Obviously someone in that group will probably make it to the majors but you have no idea when, who, or to what level. That's why I think they need to find a guy who will be a positive pitcher for the next four-five years (Price made the most sense but cost the most money).

Right.. but I was aiming more towards using their first couple of picks grabbing the best available arms over waiting til later rounds in next couple of drafts..

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[chibears55]

IFA is out. The cubs are already well over their allotted IFA pool and will only be able to spend $300k on IFA's for the next 2 years. While, you might be able to pick up some interesting arms for $300k, they aren't likely to be top guys. Also, drafting will be tough for two reasons. One the cubs might ya know actually be good for the next few years which means low round picks. On top of that, any QO player they sign kills not only their pick but the money that is associated with that pick which is arguably the bigger deal. That's what ultimately limits teams more so than the picks because you've seen the cubs sign guys like Steele, Sands and Cease while drafting Schwarber cheap and Hudson this past year while going cheaper on Happ.

With that being said, the good news is that cuba is exporting a **** ton of talent in this IFA period. They already signed Yunior Perez for $600k. Perez was outside the top 30 prospects according to BA but was an honorable mention. As for the cuban guys, I'll link you to this. Adrian Morejon is a 16 year old lefty. Cionel Perez is a 19 year old lefty. Norge Ruiz is a 21 year old righty. The cubs are expected to be involved with all 3 of those guys.

So, you're basically looking for awhile anyways at the best the cubs can get being already in the system or about to be with those cubans I mentioned. I feel like I say this a lot but the cubs have more pitching than people realize. It's just low level pitching and as such it hasn't peculated up to top 100 type lists. Cease might be the best potential starter in the cubs system. Underwood has been mentioned some as well but I think he's a name people may know. I've also read that some view Oscar De La Cruz as the second best pitching prospect the cubs have. Then you have guys like Hudson, Steele, Sands, Tseng, Stinette, Clifton, Rob Zastryzny, Daury Torrez(if he's not rule 5 selected), Ryan Williams and Jeremy Null who are not bad names. And obviously there's a pretty high chance they trade for some young pitcher too.

Right... which is why I said in next 2 years

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[DanTown]

Right.. but I was aiming more towards using their first couple of picks grabbing the best available arms over waiting til later rounds in next couple of drafts..

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Pitching at any level is hard to scout. The "just draft them in round one" doesn't really work that way in baseball. I completely back the Cubs strategy: just take as many as you can and find quality hitting where it presents itself. Every team wants to find close to major league ready pitching.

 

[beckdawg]

I'm not saying "why don't they have top end rotation arms" because i know that it's much easier to find them at the top of a draft than later; however, they simply don't have many homegrown arms going through the system with a good pace. The furthest guy they've developed is Johnson and he was a college guy who hasn't shown great stuff in AA. Maybe Underwood gets there but he also isn't at some advanced rate. I get it, the Cubs have spent assets on bats but they simply don't have guys I'd say are even like an Almora prospect (not ready now but probably ready in two years for a limited role). Their best pitchers of Hendricks/Edwards were acquired via trade. And I have no problem with them using hitters to trade for pitching as it's far easier to find/develop hitters. That's why I'd trade for Ross.

I get where you're coming from. However, the thing to remember with pitching is guys come out of no where. CJ Edwards was a 48th round pick and things clicked for him quickly went from no where on anyones radar to top 100 prospect. That's how it is with most pitching. If you look at the way places like baseball america and baseball prospectus rate pitchers it's almost always guys who were recently drafted being in your top 75 or so. I mean consider mlb.com's top 100 right now

#3 Lucas Giolito 2012, 1st (16)
#4 Julio Urias $1.8 mil IFA signing
#12 Tyler Glasnow 2011, 5th (152) his $600k bonus was highest ever at the time for anyone taken below the 65th pick
#15 Steven Matz 2009, 2nd (72)
#16 Alex Reyes $950k IFA
#19 Sean Newcomb 2014, 1st (15)
#20 Jose Berrios 2012, 1st Sup (32)
#23 Jose De Leon 2013, 24th (724)
#28 Jon Gray 2013, 1st (3)
#36 Robert Stephenson 2011, 1st (27)
#39 Archie Bradley 2011, 1st (7)
#40 Brian Johnson 2012, 1st (31)
#41 Blake Snell 2011, 1st (52)
#42 Carson Fulmer 2015, 1st (8)
#43 Mark Appel 2013, 1st (1)
#45 Jameson Taillon 2010, 1st (2)
#45 Dillon Tate 2015, 1st (4)
#48 Brent Honeywell 2014, CBB (72)
#49 Jeff Hoffman 2014, 1st (9)
#51 Jake Thompson 2012, 2nd (91)
#52 Tyler Kolek 2014, 1st (2)
#54 Francelis Montas $75k IFA signing
#57 Carl Edwards Jr. 2011, 48th (1464)
#58 Grant Holmes 2014, 1st (22)
#60 Hunter Harvey 2013, 1st (22)
#61 Aaron Blair 2013, CBA (36)
#63 Tyler Jay 2015, 1st (6)
#64 Dylan Bundy 2011, 1st (4)
#67 Duane Underwood 2012, 2nd (67)
#69 Touki Toussaint 2014, 1st (16)
#70 Amir Garrett 2011, 22nd (685) was given $1 mil signing bonus
#74 Rob Kaminsky 2013, 1st (28)
#78 Braden Shipley 2013, 1st (15)
#80 Jonathan Harris 2015, 1st (29)
#83 Ashe Russell 2015, 1st (21)
#84 Mike Nikorak 2015, 1st (27)
#86 Luis Ortiz 2014, 1st (30)
#88 Kolby Allard 2015, 1st (14th)
#94 Keury Mella $275k 2011 IFA
#95 Kyle Zimmer 2012, 1st (5)
#98 Michael Fulmer 2011, 1st (44)
#100 Jack Flaherty 2014, 1st (34)

With one or two exceptions(Edwards, De Leon), you're not even going to be on prospect coverage radar unless you were either A) a large IFA signing or B) a top say 75 pick and honestly is more a top 35 pick thing. However, Lester was the 57th pick in 2002. Buchholz was the 42nd pick in 2005. Arreita was a 5th round pick in 2007. Cliff Lee was a 4th round pick. So on and so forth.

What tends to happen is that comparative to major league scouting, prospect coverage places don't have near the staff or expertise that teams do and as such they tend to focus on the highly drafted players with their coverage. But obviously you will have unheralded guys who become effective pitchers. And the other aspect there is these rankings tend to focus on highest potential. Hendricks was basically an after thought in this sort of coverage but he's likely to be a productive albeit unspectacular as a #4/5 for his rookie deal. On the other hand if we go back to say 2010, BA's top 10 pitchers were Stephen Strasburg, Brian Matusz, Neftali Feliz, Madison Bumgarner, Martin Perez, Jeremy Hellickson, Aroldis Chapman, Tyler Matzek, Casey Kelly, and Kyle Drabek. While Bumgarner and Strasburg are stars and Chapman is a shut down closer, the rest are hardly much to write home about.

As this all pertains to the cubs, if you look at their minor league teams what you see is encouraging. Eugene's 3.55 ERA was 2nd best in the Northwest league behind only Arizona's team who had a 3.27 ERA. South Bend was more middle of the pack at 3.61. They didn't have many big names just Clifton and Stinnett. Zach Hedges, Tommy Thorpe and Erick Leal aren't much of prospects. Myrtle Beach lead the Carolina in ERA at 3.01. Tennessee was also middle of the pack though again they didn't have a ton of top tier talent. Johnson was there and pitched well. Felix Pena, Ivan Pineyro, and Jeffry Antigua weren't big prospects. And you still have guys like Cease and Hudson still in rookie ball.

 

[beckdawg]

Right... which is why I said in next 2 years

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I'm not sure what you mean. The cubs can't spend more than $300k on any player in IFA for the next 2 years and as I said, their draft prospects aren't great if you want them to sign any notable FA. So, them focusing on pitching really is unlikely to yield any immediate impact. The only thing that leaves is trades to acquire new talent however, it's unlikely you're trading current MLB players for young guys with the present cubs. For example, if you were to trade Baez it would likely be for a current MLB pitcher not for a AA prospect.

Edit: read your comment to dan and think i know what you mean. Basically just draft pitching late round 1 right? The problem with that is that if the cubs sign Cueto or Shark or Lackey they no longer have their first round pick which means you're now talking about a sandwich round pick for Fowler which is likely in the 50's. If they sign Heyward to that's gone. Like wise, any FA they may sign in 2017 probably has a QO on them.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Jonathan Martinez who was the PTBNL in the Darwin Barney deal looks like he could be very serviceable as he had as good as, if not better numbers than Duane Underwood this year.

I think he projects mostly as an MOR arm. From what I've heard only Underwood and Cease, of anyone above instructional, projects as TOR guys. That by no means is a prediction that either will get there.

 

[DanTown]

I don't know how to get value in the FA SP market anymore

The Detroit Tigers have reached an agreement on a two-year, $16 million contract with free agent right-hander Mike Pelfrey, pending completion of a physical exam, a baseball source confirmed to ESPN.com Friday.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/1...e-right-hander-mike-pelfrey-two-year-16m-deal

If Pelfrey, who has only pitched 35 starts the past two seasons, is getting 2/16, I don't know.

Also from ESPN

"I don't know if he [Jeff Samardzija] gets to nine figures," said one exec whose club kicked the tires on Samardzija. "But if you put the over/under on him at $90 million, I'd go `at' or `over.'"

 

[knoxville7]

For a guy that has pitched over 175 innings once. I can't see it. But I am going to drop it. It's all fantasy anyway.

hell you can spin that as a positive and say, "well he doesn't have as much mileage on his arm so maybe he will be effective for the duration of the contract."

 

[brett05]

hell you can spin that as a positive and say, "well he doesn't have as much mileage on his arm so maybe he will be effective for the duration of the contract."

But those low mileage arms don't get paid like that.

 

[beckdawg]

But those low mileage arms don't get paid like that.

I mean shark apparently is about to get $90-100 mil and he's never been anywhere near as good as Arrieta though he does have a couple more yeas of proven production.

 

[brett05]

I mean shark apparently is about to get $90-100 mil and he's never been anywhere near as good as Arrieta though he does have a couple more yeas of proven production.

And there you go.

 

[beckdawg]

And there you go.

Another example would basically be any japanesse pitcher. Think they are about as uncertain as Arrieta and Tanaka got paid.

 

[brett05]

Another example would basically be any japanesse pitcher. Think they are about as uncertain as Arrieta and Tanaka got paid.

Tanaka is a bit different.