You're the GM (Game)

[CSF77]

Warren might beat Hendricks out of a rotation spot.

At first I was wondering wtf. But after reading up on him his stuff is really good. 5 pitches. Change maybe his best offering but with a 2/4 seem, change, curve, slider mix. Not a cutter pitcher which is refreshing with how it is abused now. Became the hot pitch post splitter

All of his offerings are avg or better.

To me having a strong game caller/pitch framer like Montero and Bosio he has a good chance of breaking out here.

 

[beckdawg]

Warren might beat Hendricks out of a rotation spot.

One day people will appreciate Hendricks more.... one day :-/ Feel like I'm always defending the guy not unlike Fowler to start the year but I'm not sure I have it in me anymore. I'll just say this. Jordan Zimmermann through age 25 49 starts, 283.2 IP, 7.7 k/9, 2.2 bb/9 3.84 ERA, 3.59 FIP. Hendricks through age 25, 45 starts, 260.1 IP, 7.4 k/9, 2.0 bb/9, 3.49 ERA, 3.34 FIP. Zimmermann threw basically a 3 pitch mix in those years(fastball, curve, slider and very very rarely a change up) of which only the fastball and slider were positive pitches according to pitch f/x. Last season Hendricks had positive values on his sinker, his curve, and his change up.

Edit: one more thing because this is a common complaint on Hendricks as well...
Zimmerman in his age 25 season
1 PA in a game - .223/.271/.340, BABIP .292
2 PA in a game - .244/.278/.369 BABIP .278
3 PA in a game - .285/.335/.395 BABIP .322

Hendricks in his age 25 season
1 PA in a game - .228/.296/.355, BABIP .297
2 PA in a game - .213/.255/.330, BABIP .254
3 PA in a game - .329/.374/.520, BABIP .390

Third time through Hendricks is +.044 BA, +.039 OBP, +.125 SLG and +.068 BABIP. If we assume that evens out closer to .300 as BABIP tends to do over time they are pretty similar.

 

[JimJohnson]

With the prices of top tier pitching being what they are, I honestly wonder what teams would offer if the cubs made Arrieta available. With how good the cubs are likely to be that might seem like a crazy idea. And maybe it is but teams are going insane to acquire pitching. And Arrieta is 30 and only controlled 2 more years. I think you could make the argument that Arrieta is worth at least the Dodgers top 3 pitchers Julio Urias, Jose De Leon and Grant Holmes who are two of the top 8 pitching prospects and 3 of the top 25. I mean that's seriously pretty crazy to talk about.

I'd be surprised if the cubs are actually considering it but as a discussion I think it's pretty interesting. The cubs would still have Baez/Soler and others to try and acquire something for 2016 and you would be potentially adding 3 top arms plus maybe more.

If Arrieta is unwilling to sign a LT extension with the Cubs before hitting the FA market, I wonder if the Cubs do consider shopping him. They could probably get a king's ransom.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

If Arrieta is unwilling to sign a LT extension with the Cubs before hitting the FA market, I wonder if the Cubs do consider shopping him. They could probably get a king's ransom.

Unless they really strike gold with a controllable starter I don't think that's possible now. If the had signed another starter I thought that was a possibility for next off season but it seems close to certain at this point that he'll play out his arb years.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I get the need of SP cost control.

But why give Castro away for a 28 year old nobody, that puzzles me.
I mean, when they acquired 2B Zobrist and RF Heyward, then why not package Castro with Soler and/or Baez to get high quality young pitcher instead of just giving him away for basically nothing, that's somewhat bad resource management.

I mean, for example, you can't tell me that offer consisted of Soler, Baez and Castro for a young cost controlled pitcher is somehow worse then offer consisted of just Soler and Baez.

Castro's value was still too low to get you a "name" acquisition so they looked for hidden value and Zobrist gave you the kind of bat that was missing in the lineup plus more consistent defense from the position. You can't look at these players in a vacuum the moves this season have been all about fit. I also wouldn't sleep in Adam Warren. Read up on him and if you have any access to a scout or two ask around. I think you'll be pleasantly surprised. With 5 pitches he can be a starter easily and he puts up good numbers. His issues have been consistency and that the Yankees have been unwilling to commit to him as a starter to iron the kinks out. The guy I talked to said that he has MOR written all over him, especially in the NL. To speculate that he has a chance to beat out Hendricks in the rotation is not a stretch.

 

[JimJohnson]

Unless they really strike gold with a controllable starter I don't think that's possible now. If the had signed another starter I thought that was a possibility for next off season but it seems close to certain at this point that he'll play out his arb years.

Next year for sure he'll play. But the 2nd year, Cubs will likely want him to sign a deal for $28M a year or so, maybe 6 or 7 years. If he isn't willing to do that, and instead is looking for Greinke money, Cubs likely trade him before the deadline. The Rays traded Price to Blue Jays and got a ton in return. Cubs will get the same in return for Arrieta if he continues to pitch like he did in 2015.

Cubs will certainly be in contention for at least the next couple years so this all depends on if Cubs can get another TOR in here via trade or perhaps FA in 2016.

 

[brett05]

With the prices of top tier pitching being what they are, I honestly wonder what teams would offer if the cubs made Arrieta available. With how good the cubs are likely to be that might seem like a crazy idea. And maybe it is but teams are going insane to acquire pitching. And Arrieta is 30 and only controlled 2 more years. I think you could make the argument that Arrieta is worth at least the Dodgers top 3 pitchers Julio Urias, Jose De Leon and Grant Holmes who are two of the top 8 pitching prospects and 3 of the top 25. I mean that's seriously pretty crazy to talk about.

I'd be surprised if the cubs are actually considering it but as a discussion I think it's pretty interesting. The cubs would still have Baez/Soler and others to try and acquire something for 2016 and you would be potentially adding 3 top arms plus maybe more.

Agreed, because right now I don't see the offer being that high right now. Once the season starts and Jake shows he's truly the consistent elite Ace like he showed last year then yes, I think that deal could be brokered. I think an issue the Cubs are about to face is that no one is going to do them any favors and that teams that trade truly valuable assets are not only going to have to win on the deal but win convincingly on the deal. Why make "Goliath" any bigger. Remember, David only won with God, not without.

 

[JimJohnson]

I think an issue the Cubs are about to face is that no one is going to do them any favors

Nobody ever does. Teams make trades because they think it's a good trade or they need to dump salary to the highest bidder. If the Cubs are the best offer on the table, then the Cubs get the deal. Teams aren't going to make a worse trade just to avoid making the Cubs better, that's fucking crazy talk son.

 

[CSF77]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-badly-do-the-cubs-need-a-starting-pitcher/

 

[brett05]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-badly-do-the-cubs-need-a-starting-pitcher/

I wonder where the Giants place now with Cueto?

 

[DanTown]

One day people will appreciate Hendricks more.... one day :-/ Feel like I'm always defending the guy not unlike Fowler to start the year but I'm not sure I have it in me anymore. I'll just say this. Jordan Zimmermann through age 25 49 starts, 283.2 IP, 7.7 k/9, 2.2 bb/9 3.84 ERA, 3.59 FIP. Hendricks through age 25, 45 starts, 260.1 IP, 7.4 k/9, 2.0 bb/9, 3.49 ERA, 3.34 FIP. Zimmermann threw basically a 3 pitch mix in those years(fastball, curve, slider and very very rarely a change up) of which only the fastball and slider were positive pitches according to pitch f/x. Last season Hendricks had positive values on his sinker, his curve, and his change up.

Edit: one more thing because this is a common complaint on Hendricks as well...
Zimmerman in his age 25 season
1 PA in a game - .223/.271/.340, BABIP .292
2 PA in a game - .244/.278/.369 BABIP .278
3 PA in a game - .285/.335/.395 BABIP .322

Hendricks in his age 25 season
1 PA in a game - .228/.296/.355, BABIP .297
2 PA in a game - .213/.255/.330, BABIP .254
3 PA in a game - .329/.374/.520, BABIP .390

Third time through Hendricks is +.044 BA, +.039 OBP, +.125 SLG and +.068 BABIP. If we assume that evens out closer to .300 as BABIP tends to do over time they are pretty similar.

Zimmeman threw his fast ball 93-96 and then had a slider (same type of spin so it makes a fastball a little more effective) about 10MPH less than a cutter he threw that was another 10MPH less. That type of variance (with that kind of velocity) can make you a more effective pitcher.

Kyle's problem? Not enough variance in his pitches (his sinker and change account for 80% of his pitches) and his highly used pitch (sinker) has terrible numbers (.280/.338/.407). Finally, his speed on his pitches really doesn't vary and since he doesn't really have a great third pitch, hitters basically sit sinker, adjust changeup. For the love of god, stop scouting pitchers based on certain numbers. HOW they acquire those numbers is just as/more important than the numbers you measure.

 

[SilenceS]

A couple of things, Zobrist D is not very good anymore and no where near the range of Castro. The whole defensive argument is moot. Zobrist was pretty terrible last year as a defender and thats not going to get better a year older. Yet again, I believe Zobrist signing shouldn't have happened but lets hope he doesn't break down until a couple of years from now. As for Warren, has no one watched him pitch? I watched him a handful of time last year. He was on ESPN a good bit. His stuff is ok. This isn't like Arrieta where Arrieta had the stuff just not the consistency or the control. Warren doesn't have the stuff. Every pitch he threw was average type stuff. He didn't throw anything that you went. Well, that is just dynamic. To be honest, its probably best for Castro to go. Theo and them fucked his world up since they came and tried to make him into a different ball player. He can probably get back to his roots and just hit. Time will tell on the trade. I do know the Yankees are the ones who circled back around. The Cubs have liked Warren for awhile and the Yankees were trying to get Castro cheaper when he really was at rock bottom. The reports are Cashman approached the Cubs again and was willing to give up Warren for Castro.

I do find it a shame that Castro had to suffer all those years only for the Cubs to trade him when they have a shot. Should motivate him.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

A couple of things, Zobrist D is not very good anymore and no where near the range of Castro. The whole defensive argument is moot. Zobrist was pretty terrible last year as a defender and thats not going to get better a year older. Yet again, I believe Zobrist signing shouldn't have happened but lets hope he doesn't break down until a couple of years from now. As for Warren, has no one watched him pitch? I watched him a handful of time last year. He was on ESPN a good bit. His stuff is ok. This isn't like Arrieta where Arrieta had the stuff just not the consistency or the control. Warren doesn't have the stuff. Every pitch he threw was average type stuff. He didn't throw anything that you went. Well, that is just dynamic. To be honest, its probably best for Castro to go. Theo and them fucked his world up since they came and tried to make him into a different ball player. He can probably get back to his roots and just hit. Time will tell on the trade. I do know the Yankees are the ones who circled back around. The Cubs have liked Warren for awhile and the Yankees were trying to get Castro cheaper when he really was at rock bottom. The reports are Cashman approached the Cubs again and was willing to give up Warren for Castro.

I do find it a shame that Castro had to suffer all those years only for the Cubs to trade him when they have a shot. Should motivate him.

I've seen Warren pitch, even start a game last summer when I was in Boston, but I can't say I gave him a lot of thought. Five minutes after the trade a sportswriter friend of mine forwarded me a text a scout friend of his (who I've met but can't say I know) that said "watch out for Warren, he's Shelby Miller without the hype, he's just never gotten a real shot", that's word for word. I did some reading and there are sources that speculate the same thing out there, including a Fangraphs piece. Looking at the numbers though he's rarely hit Miller's velocity and he is 28. Bottom line I don't know. My friend's guy thinks all he needs is to improve his command of his breaking stuff. Time will tell I suppose.

As far as Castro I've always been fairly neutral liking him more than most but not as much as some. I don't think he fit this organization anymore and if I had to defend him to one more meatball after a bad game my head would have exploded. I think Zobrist is a better fit and hopefully a two year bridge to Torres or the like before he's a very expensive utility player.

 

[BaBaBlacksheep]

A couple of things, Zobrist D is not very good anymore and no where near the range of Castro. The whole defensive argument is moot. Zobrist was pretty terrible last year as a defender and thats not going to get better a year older. Yet again, I believe Zobrist signing shouldn't have happened but lets hope he doesn't break down until a couple of years from now. As for Warren, has no one watched him pitch? I watched him a handful of time last year. He was on ESPN a good bit. His stuff is ok. This isn't like Arrieta where Arrieta had the stuff just not the consistency or the control. Warren doesn't have the stuff. Every pitch he threw was average type stuff. He didn't throw anything that you went. Well, that is just dynamic. To be honest, its probably best for Castro to go. Theo and them fucked his world up since they came and tried to make him into a different ball player. He can probably get back to his roots and just hit. Time will tell on the trade. I do know the Yankees are the ones who circled back around. The Cubs have liked Warren for awhile and the Yankees were trying to get Castro cheaper when he really was at rock bottom. The reports are Cashman approached the Cubs again and was willing to give up Warren for Castro.

I do find it a shame that Castro had to suffer all those years only for the Cubs to trade him when they have a shot. Should motivate him.

I'll "suffer" for a few years at his salary any time. :lol:

 

[beckdawg]

Zimmeman threw his fast ball 93-96 and then had a slider (same type of spin so it makes a fastball a little more effective) about 10MPH less than a cutter he threw that was another 10MPH less. That type of variance (with that kind of velocity) can make you a more effective pitcher.

Kyle's problem? Not enough variance in his pitches (his sinker and change account for 80% of his pitches) and his highly used pitch (sinker) has terrible numbers (.280/.338/.407). Finally, his speed on his pitches really doesn't vary and since he doesn't really have a great third pitch, hitters basically sit sinker, adjust changeup. For the love of god, stop scouting pitchers based on certain numbers. HOW they acquire those numbers is just as/more important than the numbers you measure.

I'm going to put this as politely as I can. If you dislike what I have to say, don't read it. You clearly have a differing opinion than I do. That doesn't make anything I've said any less valid. Also for what it's worth the "he doesn't have a third pitch" rhetoric isn't entirely accurate. He throws his change up effectively two ways. They may as well be separate pitches. That different action from the same look, combined with around 8 mph difference on his sinker gives enough deception to produce good strike out rates.

If you want to argue he was a bit too reliant on his sinker in 2015 I would agree. But as I've said before, being confident with a pitch is something that takes time. Shelby Miller was effectively a 2 pitch pitcher through his first 2 full years. In 2013, he threw 73.6% fastballs, 18.6% curves, and 6% change ups. In 2014, he threw 61.8% fastballs, 19.6% curveballs, 10.3% two seam, 6% changeups. This season he threw his two seam 34.1% of the time, his 4 seam 32.9%, his cutter 20.9%, and his curve 9.8%. Obviously, that new mix of pitches gave Miller a big leg up from the previous years.

Hendricks has a cutter and a curve he can work on. Perhaps he adds a different pitch and becomes comfortable with that. Point here being, he's not a finished product and he's already pretty decent as is. It's realistic to expect someone with his make up to find something that works for him. It doesn't have to be a dominant pitch either. He just needs another look so people aren't constantly sitting on his sinker. When he gets ahead of people his change up is one of the better pitches in the majors in terms of swinging strike.

 

[beckdawg]

A couple of things, Zobrist D is not very good anymore.

Think this is a pretty rash judgement. Admittedly, Zobrist's D wasn't very good last year but you also have to factor in the knee injury he had. In 2014, he was a 10.3 UZR/150 at 2B. In 2013 he was 14.7 UZR/150. And where Zobrist took the hit was almost entirely in range. He was a 9.4 range factor in 2013, a 6.4 in 2014 and a -8.6 in 2015. Seems pretty clear that was largely around his injury. How far he comes back is obviously the $56 mil question. I think I'd argue 2014 is a fair guess but maybe a little less is also fair since age an all. Is he better defensively than Castro? I mean that's kind of hard to say. Castro on paper has more range. But Castro also makes a lot of inconsistent plays. If you want to argue Castro's better there, I'm not going to gripe too much.

Ultimately, I think Castro would always be a looming storm cloud over the cubs not so much because of anything he did. But, I think I mentioned before he reminds me a bit of Cutler in that he isn't quite what the fan base wanted and shit turned on both quickly. In both cases, the story would likely always have been about something Castro did to screw up. For example, IIRC the cubs won the game vs the cards where Castro mock threw behind Bryant. There was more talk about that than the win. And I think we reach a point with Castro where no amount of good done by him could offset the media/public opinion. That to some extent is a distraction to the team because then the media asks about it. Again, not Castro's fault but it is the reality.

 

[CSF77]

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/...asons-for-signing-and-willingness-to-play-cf/

 

[czman]

One day people will appreciate Hendricks more.... one day :-/ Feel like I'm always defending the guy not unlike Fowler to start the year but I'm not sure I have it in me anymore. I'll just say this. Jordan Zimmermann through age 25 49 starts, 283.2 IP, 7.7 k/9, 2.2 bb/9 3.84 ERA, 3.59 FIP. Hendricks through age 25, 45 starts, 260.1 IP, 7.4 k/9, 2.0 bb/9, 3.49 ERA, 3.34 FIP. Zimmermann threw basically a 3 pitch mix in those years(fastball, curve, slider and very very rarely a change up) of which only the fastball and slider were positive pitches according to pitch f/x. Last season Hendricks had positive values on his sinker, his curve, and his change up.

Edit: one more thing because this is a common complaint on Hendricks as well...
Zimmerman in his age 25 season
1 PA in a game - .223/.271/.340, BABIP .292
2 PA in a game - .244/.278/.369 BABIP .278
3 PA in a game - .285/.335/.395 BABIP .322

Hendricks in his age 25 season
1 PA in a game - .228/.296/.355, BABIP .297
2 PA in a game - .213/.255/.330, BABIP .254
3 PA in a game - .329/.374/.520, BABIP .390

Third time through Hendricks is +.044 BA, +.039 OBP, +.125 SLG and +.068 BABIP. If we assume that evens out closer to .300 as BABIP tends to do over time they are pretty similar.

The one thing you steadily ignore is that there is a lot of evidence that states the more you see Hencricks the more you hit him really hard.

He has faced the Brewers 6 times in his career, the most of any team. The first two times he faced the he has a ~2 ERA. The next 4 it is ~5 ERA. His ERA grows out of control the more times a batter faces him during a game. He only has more than 30 innings pitched against one team in his entire career. No one, and this includes you, knows where he will be once the entire NL has 60+ innings against him in 2 years.

He has been average to date. His ERA+ last season was 99. After everyone sees him a few more times is he going to be more like the pitcher the third time through the lineup? No one knows that answer. he has a total of 260 innings. Let's see where he is after 600.

I don't like the fact that his ERA/ERA+/FIP/WHIP are all worse this season than last. I don't like the fact he gets murdered the third time through the lineup. For his career he has a ~5 ERA after the 5th inning.

I want to see a lot more from him before I hazard a guess. I am not sure why there is such a rush to crown him anything. Why not just let it play out. Some of his numbers make him look really promising and some make him look like he may be pitching on borrowed time. He is probably somewhere in the middle.

 

[beckdawg]

I want to see a lot more from him before I hazard a guess. I am not sure why there is such a rush to crown him anything. Why not just let it play out. Some of his numbers make him look really promising and some make him look like he may be pitching on borrowed time. He is probably somewhere in the middle.

I mean this is fair. But I guess my point in all of this is that no one looks at the positives with him. It's almost always the negatives and how they should look to replace him either via a Soler/Baez trade or Warren or whomever. And that is what drives me nuts. I mean to me it's akin to saying we may as well replace Russell because he didn't hit exceedingly well to start his career. Obviously that's being overly dramatic but it's pretty clear when the media/prospect type places tells you someone is going to be good people are far more willing to allow them to develop while less heralded players don't get any of the same development time.

 

[czman]

I mean this is fair. But I guess my point in all of this is that no one looks at the positives with him. It's almost always the negatives and how they should look to replace him either via a Soler/Baez trade or Warren or whomever. And that is what drives me nuts. I mean to me it's akin to saying we may as well replace Russell because he didn't hit exceedingly well to start his career. Obviously that's being overly dramatic but it's pretty clear when the media/prospect type places tells you someone is going to be good people are far more willing to allow them to develop while less heralded players don't get any of the same development time.

The problem with your analogy is that Russell did not hit well but improved while Hendricks started really well and has shown some regression. Now he has regressed to average, but will that regression continue. Will he adjust and get better. I think the next two seasons will tell us.

There is really no reason to guess what he is going to be. Time will let it show it to us.