You're the GM (Game)

[czman]

I think 2016 is a HUGE year for Kyle. Either he's going to be a very solid rotation piece who will one day command a Jeff S type contract or it might be the start of him being a replacement level player.

I don't think next season is the huge season for Hendricks. I suspect that no matter what we see from him long term we see in uptick in his numbers next year. If he has a decline it probably won't be noticeable until 2018. It may start in 2017,but probably not till the end. He has been good enough early and the Cubs have used very well. I don't suspect that will change next season. Furthermore, just because of the way the Cubs have been using him he may have to completely fall apart for a decline to be noticed.

He has enough stuff to get through the 5 inning. If Hendricks just stays where he is ~180 innings and an average ERA+ what does that make him?

 

[DanTown]

So there's nothing between a solid MOR/borderline TOR and a replacement level pitcher? What Hendricks likely profiles as is a solid 4/borderline 3. That's hugely valuable. How you can say he'll never make it through the third time through lineup is beyond me. After 2 years you're making blanket statements like this. C'mon man.

Because Hendricks' lack of stuff and lack of secondary pitches means he doesn't have the ability to just be a two pitch pitcher and get outs against guys who will have seen him a bunch? I'm not saying he'll never make it through the order a third time; I'm saying that it will require an adjustment and adding more diversity among his pitches. If he doesn't add those pitches, he's not going to be just magically get better. Last year he was essentially a two pitch pitcher (sinker - 60%, changeup 20%, none higher than 8.5%). When he came up in 2014, he was a little more diverse (sinker - 48%, changeup - 23%, cutter 13%).

I cannot think of any SP who had multiple years of success throwing two pitches 80% of the time (especially neither being a dynamic fastball); if he adjusts and adds a third pitch that he can consistently get outs with, it changes his career. Last year, he showed how far two good pitches goes but two good pitches doesn't just last forever. But if he does add that third pitch, he'll take a major step forward.

Basically, it's very weird to think a two-pitch pitcher who relies on control and limiting flyballs will settle into a career as a #4 starter in a rotation; either he'll throw more pitches and become a solid #3/weak #2 or he won't and those two pitches will eventually be found out. I think this is one of the reasons the Cubs have so many arms on the roster who can start, just in case Kyle gets found out and he doesn't make an adjustment. Of course, Kyle can adjust and he changes the conversation.

 

[DanTown]

If Mark Buerhle is the comp, look at how much Buerhle changed his pitch usage year 2 to year 3

....... ....... ....... Fastball ............... Slider ............. Cutter............. Curveball............. Changeup
2003 White Sox 61.7% (86.5)....... 7.8% (81.8).......None ............. 10.4% (75.3).....20.1% (80.1)
2004 White Sox 49.6% (87.1)....... 11.6% (81.9).....15.9% (84.6) 10.2% (72.6).....12.7% (78.4

And in 03, Buerhle had similar issues third time through that Hendricks did just not as prenounced (slugging went up .100 points, gave up HR every 29AB vs HR every 44AB first two times).

Then in 04, with more diversity, he settled into a pitcher who could get through the order the third time through (.261/.305/.366 third time through compared to .263/.309/.405 first two times through). No reason to think Kyle can't do that; he just can't do that throwing primarily two pitches.

 

[beckdawg]

The problem Hendricks will always have is that he can't go deep into games. Jordan Zimmerman is the same guy the first time through the order as he is the third time through the order. That's important in evaluating a SP because he's going to give you a lot of innings if you can trust him to survive the third trip through the order. While Zimmerman may have a low K rate, it's not dropping. The drop, and not the K-rate itself, is the issue with Hendricks. I mean if Hendricks doesn't have a massive outlier for BABIP second time through, his numbers look significantly worse.

Hendricks K-Rates by time through
1st - 26.8% - .228/.296/.355 BABIP - .297 aka Junior Lake
2nd - 21.1% - .213/.255/.330 BABIP - .254 aka Jonathan Herrea
3rd/4th - 18.0% - .329/.374/.520 BABIP - .390 aka David Peralta

I have no problem saying Kyle Hendricks is a good pitcher for 5 innings. And of course I wouldn't expect Kyle's 3rd time through to be as pronounced as it is in future years. But the question is will he get the strikeouts at the same rate once he makes his way though the league? His stuff sure does not set itself up to be a decent SO pitcher.

Also, all of Kyle's K rates are propped up by the fact that a larger than normal majority of the PA against him are 1st/2nd time through. You are essentially comparing Kyle's K-rates against other pitchers who go through the order multiple times. And if you look at the numbers and the stuff, you'd say Kyle has good stuff but he doesn't have enough secondary stuff. That's important in evaluating him. He has one pitch that he gets a ton of swing/misses on (his change) but everything else, without much varying speed and movement, is easy to time and hit the more you see it.

I think 2016 is a HUGE year for Kyle. Either he's going to be a very solid rotation piece who will one day command a Jeff S type contract or it might be the start of him being a replacement level player.

The.254 BABIP is a pretty big outlier. But so is a .390 BABIP the third time through. I don't remember the sample sizes on either off the top of my head but I think the 3rd time through was like 200 PAs when BABIP normalizes at around 1000. I'd expect the 2nd time through to be worse. If it jumps the 43 point difference between the first and the second the OBP is roughly the same between the two splits. If the third time through drops to the .297 in the first sample the OBP there would be .281. Truth be told, It wouldn't surprise me at all if the three splits end up something like roughly where the first split is now, then say .240/.300 and finally .250/.310. Hendricks is going to be worse later in game but then most pitchers are. It's just a matter of how bad and how quickly he gets through the first few hitters so that he doesn't tire. Though, I would assume your case is not that he's tiring and instead hitters are more comfortable picking up his pitches. It's a valid point. I'd discuss it more but I don't know what more to add here than "yeah I can see that." My only addition I'd add though is craftier pitchers without elite stuff will pitch backwards to guys to catch them off guard and hopefully get ahead in counts later in games. If that's something Hendricks eventually gets, it's just going to come with time and learning what he can get away with.

The fewer inning point vs k rate has a lot of merit. I would however question how much that matters to a guy like Hendricks. Usually when you're talking about a guy throwing fewer innings and seeing an uptick in K rate it's because he's able to throw his fastball harder and use himself up faster. For example, Wood's best fastball in 2014 was 92.3 mph vs this season at 95.5. But is that really the case with Hendricks? I don't think pitching 5 innings is really taking him from his 88 mph average on his sinker up to his 92 max most of the time. In fact if we look at k rate by pitch for his career it's like this: sinker 13.1%, change 32.0%, cutter 18.2%, curve 24.6%, 4 seam 24.1%(167 pitches), and slider 9.1 %. If you have a different view I'm all ears but my take away here is he predominantly is striking people out when he's able to get ahead in the count and use his change and curve.

The question just becomes how does Hendricks go about getting two strikes? Or perhaps a better question is should he even be trying? I.E. Should he be trying to get more ground ball easy outs on fewer pitches. I'm a guy that likes to talk archetypes like I said and when it comes to ground ball pitchers there tends to be two types. There's your Brett Anderson, Jon Niese, and Mike Leake's of the world and then there's you're fairly dominant #1ish starters like Arrieta, Felix Hernandez and Sonny Gray's. There's a few outliers like Chris Heston, Jimmy Nelson, Gio Gonzalez(?), Garrett Richards, and Tyson Ross(?) who are above 7 k/9. I hesitate to include Gio and Ross as they seem like the low end of the #1ish starters. Thing is Richards(3.30), Heston(3.24), and Nelson(3.30) all walk substantially more batters than Hendricks and he struck out a full batter more than them. So when I talk about Hendricks, that's what I'm seeing. From a numerical stand point, he should be a better pitcher than the Leake grouping and the tweeners. However, if you put him with the other grouping then you're talking about #2/3 starters at the worse and potentially more. Perhaps he is the first grouping with Leake and them and the majors haven't caught up but then I would expect his 2nd half k rates this season to drop as more teams see him. Additionally, K rate after a player settles tends to be fairly predictable. For example Leake's first season he was at 5.92 and his career rate is 6.06.

IF THERE'S ANYTHING SOMEONE READS IN THIS POST IT SHOULD BE THIS
I get the negatives that people will put on him that he only really uses his sinker and his change up. And I get the idea of a player like Jackson not meeting his FIP. But Jackson had a career 6.95 k/9 and a 3.51 bb/9 and happened to throw 95 average on his fastball. Hendricks as more or less a rookie struck out 8.35 per 9 and walked 2.15. So, I get the skepticism when I talk about how good I think he is. Logically, it doesn't make a ton of sense that a guy throwing 88 can finish 29th among qualified starters in k/9. And yet it happened and I don't see anything terribly flukey about it. May was the only month he wasn't essentially at 8 k/9. I'd love to be able to tell you that I could answer all the possible skepticism someone may have on Hendricks. Simply put, there's just not enough of a track records. What I can tell you is since 1990 there have been 62 seasons of a pitcher who had a k/9 over 7.5 a bb/9 under 2.5, a GB% over 45% and pitched at least 180 innings. If you're searching for a crap pitcher on that list, good luck. The worst is probably Brandon McCarthy who if injuries hadn't derailed his career may have been one of those #2/3 types. After that I'm not even sure. Hisashi Iwakuma, Patrick Corbin, Collin McHugh, and I guess Mat Latos are the next worst in some order. Oh I guess Esteban Loaiza also snuck in with one REALLY great season I didn't immediately see. And I know I beat this into the ground, but this was Hendricks first full year. We're not talking about some flash in the pan age 31 season or whatever. I mean sure it could be a flash in the pan 25 year old season but this arguably isn't Hendricks "prime."

I fully admit I'm obsessive about a lot of oddly specific things including Hendricks. However, when you look at that list of 62 players I think it warrants excitement. And I don't think I'm stacking the deck in his favor by using k/9, bb/9 and GB rate considering all are pretty good indicators of future success. Where he goes from here is anyone's guess. But if he improves on 2015's numbers even marginally we're having a different discussion.

 

[SilenceS]

Im not a huge Hendricks fan because he has to have spot on control to be effective and not many pitchers can do that. But, do people not think he is going to become a smarter pitcher with experience? I would figure that if he plans on staying in the majors for the long haul he knows he will have to mix up pitches. I don't think he plans on being the same pitcher he was going forward. Pitching is an art and he has the brains to become an artist.

 

[DanTown]

The.254 BABIP is a pretty big outlier. But so is a .390 BABIP the third time through. I don't remember the sample sizes on either off the top of my head but I think the 3rd time through was like 200 PAs when BABIP normalizes at around 1000. I'd expect the 2nd time through to be worse. If it jumps the 43 point difference between the first and the second the OBP is roughly the same between the two splits. If the third time through drops to the .297 in the first sample the OBP there would be .281. Truth be told, It wouldn't surprise me at all if the three splits end up something like roughly where the first split is now, then say .240/.300 and finally .250/.310. Hendricks is going to be worse later in game but then most pitchers are. It's just a matter of how bad and how quickly he gets through the first few hitters so that he doesn't tire.

I don't think we're talking about stamina with Hendricks. I mean he was a SO pitcher last year and even with that, he threw over 100 pitches four times and he threw sub 90 in 15 of his starts. If I thought stamina mattered, I'd have a different conversation.

Though, I would assume your case is not that he's tiring and instead hitters are more comfortable picking up his pitches. It's a valid point. I'd discuss it more but I don't know what more to add here than "yeah I can see that." My only addition I'd add though is craftier pitchers without elite stuff will pitch backwards to guys to catch them off guard and hopefully get ahead in counts later in games. If that's something Hendricks eventually gets, it's just going to come with time and learning what he can get away with.

I can get "pitching backwards" but for that to be the case, you have to be able to throw more pitches. Kyle in 2014 was two pitch guy: sinker/change. That setup does not allow for you to pitch backwards since you don't throw anything but that. If he develops a third pitch to consistently keep hitters guessing, that's important. I can't think of a single SP in the league who throws two pitches 80%+ of the time and succeeding multiple years. Hitters in this league are simply too good.

The fewer inning point vs k rate has a lot of merit. I would however question how much that matters to a guy like Hendricks. Usually when you're talking about a guy throwing fewer innings and seeing an uptick in K rate it's because he's able to throw his fastball harder and use himself up faster. For example, Wood's best fastball in 2014 was 92.3 mph vs this season at 95.5. But is that really the case with Hendricks? I don't think pitching 5 innings is really taking him from his 88 mph average on his sinker up to his 92 max most of the time. In fact if we look at k rate by pitch for his career it's like this: sinker 13.1%, change 32.0%, cutter 18.2%, curve 24.6%, 4 seam 24.1%(167 pitches), and slider 9.1 %. If you have a different view I'm all ears but my take away here is he predominantly is striking people out when he's able to get ahead in the count and use his change and curve.

The reason he's able to get SO (at least IMO) is that he's throwing primarily two pitches: sinker/change. The more you throw the same pitch, the more likely an opposing hitter is going to time/hit the pitch. Since Kyle doesn't really diversify, his pitching has a limited shelf-life. I think Kyle could give you better results if he drops that K-rate a little and gets a third pitch and continues to add pitches. The more pitches you throw, the harder it is for hitters (especially guess hitters) to figure out what you're going to throw. Elite pitchers are elite because they can throw a number of pitches in any scenario. I mean guys who rely on two pitches (i.e Rondon), only face a batter once and they throw super hard and with a lot of movement.

The question just becomes how does Hendricks go about getting two strikes? Or perhaps a better question is should he even be trying? I.E. Should he be trying to get more ground ball easy outs on fewer pitches. I'm a guy that likes to talk archetypes like I said and when it comes to ground ball pitchers there tends to be two types. There's your Brett Anderson, Jon Niese, and Mike Leake's of the world and then there's you're fairly dominant #1ish starters like Arrieta, Felix Hernandez and Sonny Gray's. There's a few outliers like Chris Heston, Jimmy Nelson, Gio Gonzalez(?), Garrett Richards, and Tyson Ross(?) who are above 7 k/9. I hesitate to include Gio and Ross as they seem like the low end of the #1ish starters. Thing is Richards(3.30), Heston(3.24), and Nelson(3.30) all walk substantially more batters than Hendricks and he struck out a full batter more than them. So when I talk about Hendricks, that's what I'm seeing. From a numerical stand point, he should be a better pitcher than the Leake grouping and the tweeners. However, if you put him with the other grouping then you're talking about #2/3 starters at the worse and potentially more. Perhaps he is the first grouping with Leake and them and the majors haven't caught up but then I would expect his 2nd half k rates this season to drop as more teams see him. Additionally, K rate after a player settles tends to be fairly predictable. For example Leake's first season he was at 5.92 and his career rate is 6.06.

See, here is the thing: I don't see Kyle being able to succeed in 2016 like he did in 2015. But if he adds another pitch? All of the sudden he's a solid #3 pitcher because he'll give you similar FIP production but over more innings. One of the reasons I don't agree with Kyle's FIP/fWAR is that it assumes his IP wasn't as controlled by Joe. Only 10 times in the history of baseball has a starter had a year like Kyle (30+ starts, 3.5 or less FIP, 180 innings or less). The reason is the assumption is most pitchers with a FIP that low can pitch more. While you may think that a lot of the third time through struggles are outlier related, I tend to disagree with that in part. Of course guys slashing what they did is crazy and likely wouldn't happen again, but then you remember what Kyle's throwing. While .390 is quite high, I don't know how low he can go with just two pitches. I mean guys who see the same pitches 10-12 times at roughly the same speed will start to hit it, no matter what is coming.

IF THERE'S ANYTHING SOMEONE READS IN THIS POST IT SHOULD BE THIS
I get the negatives that people will put on him that he only really uses his sinker and his change up. And I get the idea of a player like Jackson not meeting his FIP. But Jackson had a career 6.95 k/9 and a 3.51 bb/9 and happened to throw 95 average on his fastball. Hendricks as more or less a rookie struck out 8.35 per 9 and walked 2.15. So, I get the skepticism when I talk about how good I think he is. Logically, it doesn't make a ton of sense that a guy throwing 88 can finish 29th among qualified starters in k/9. And yet it happened and I don't see anything terribly flukey about it. May was the only month he wasn't essentially at 8 k/9. I'd love to be able to tell you that I could answer all the possible skepticism someone may have on Hendricks. Simply put, there's just not enough of a track records. What I can tell you is since 1990 there have been 62 seasons of a pitcher who had a k/9 over 7.5 a bb/9 under 2.5, a GB% over 45% and pitched at least 180 innings. If you're searching for a crap pitcher on that list, good luck. The worst is probably Brandon McCarthy who if injuries hadn't derailed his career may have been one of those #2/3 types. After that I'm not even sure. Hisashi Iwakuma, Patrick Corbin, Collin McHugh, and I guess Mat Latos are the next worst in some order. Oh I guess Esteban Loaiza also snuck in with one REALLY great season I didn't immediately see. And I know I beat this into the ground, but this was Hendricks first full year. We're not talking about some flash in the pan age 31 season or whatever. I mean sure it could be a flash in the pan 25 year old season but this arguably isn't Hendricks "prime."

Again, like a dead horse, I'll repeat what makes Hendricks different: lack of pitches. If the question is "can Kyle pitch the same way and get the same success" my answer is a resounding no. The reason Arrieta for example might not have massive regression is that hitters can't really say "well I can sit on X". Arrieta throws three different pitches and even started throwing a change-up later in the year to keep hitters guessing. When a pitcher can get as many swinging strikes as Jake gets, variety is why.

I fully admit I'm obsessive about a lot of oddly specific things including Hendricks. However, when you look at that list of 62 players I think it warrants excitement. And I don't think I'm stacking the deck in his favor by using k/9, bb/9 and GB rate considering all are pretty good indicators of future success. Where he goes from here is anyone's guess. But if he improves on 2015's numbers even marginally we're having a different discussion.

I think people probably think I'm down on Kyle and I'm not, I think he has a higher ceiling than anyone except you on this board has for him. Pitchers don't typically age on a bell curve usually and I think Kyle's potential to develop a third pitch is probably fairly decent. The thing I see with Kyle though is a much lower floor than others (I think he could be out in three years). I mean, the telling thing for me and the Cubs is their desire to acquire SP. If they had any belief Kyle could stay and be a #4, they really wouldn't have a hole in their rotation. They could just play this year out, replace Hammel with another back of the rotation arm, then hope Edwards/Underwood/Johnson breaks through and becomes a #3 when Lackey leaves.

I just would be utterly shocked if he stays here (2015 Hendricks) and continues to be effective/useful as two pitch starting pitchers don't stay in baseball very long. Either he develops and he gets around a #3 quality or he doesn't develop and he's out of the rotation in a year or two.

 

[czman]

Mark Buerhle is a terrible comp. Junk throwing LHs have always had more success than RHs.

 

[CSF77]

Hendricks lacks a out pitch. He is a finesse guy that has to be mechanically sound and spot on with location. No hard slide for split or a high end fastball. Or even a table drop change like Hoffman had.

He seem run of the mill to be honest.

 

[beckdawg]

Again, like a dead horse, I'll repeat what makes Hendricks different: lack of pitches.

If we're on the subject of two pitch pitchers then Jose Quintana is one. On his career he's throw 51.9% 4 seam fastballs and 23.1% curves. Gerrit Cole has thrown his 4 seam 62.2% and his slider 16.7%. Taijuan Walker threw his 4 seam 64.5% and his splitter 15.5%. Shelby Miller until this year had been 60% 4 seam 20% curve. To throw up the Jordan Zimmermann comp again, on his career he's throw 63.9% 4 seam, 20.5% slider. Chris Archer was 44.0% 4 seam, 39.1% slider last season clearly his best season. In other words, this is fairly common.

And because I'm sure the next comment will be their 2 pitchers are better than his 2 pitches.
Hendricks
Sinker - .281/.338/.407 116 wRC+
Change - .164/.191/.263 32 wRC+
Third time through a line up - .311/.360/.451 .368 BABIP

Jose Quintana
4 seam - .275/.331/.412 117 wRC+
Curve - .200/.231/.309 59 wRC+
Third time through a line up - .288/.335/.429 .330 BABIP

Gerrit Cole
4 seam - .256/.316/.352 97 wRC+
Slider - .179/.213/.276 45 wRC+
Third time through a line up .255/.320/.377 .305 BABIP

Taijuan Walker
4 seam - .242/.304/.416 112 wRC+
Splitter - .294/.319/.401 112 wRC+
Third time through a line up .242/.303/.368 .276 BABIP

Jordan Zimmermann
4 seam - .263/.311/.408 107 wRC+
Slider - .228/.263/.335 73 wRC+
Third time through a line up .257/.309/.403 .288 BABIP

Shelby Miller
4 seam - .225/.302/.363 97 wRC+
Curve - .229/.276/.354 87 wRC+
Third time through a line up .272/.350/.423 .300 BABIP

Chris Archer
4 seam - .265/.363/.396 128 wRC+
Slider - .187/.231/.288 56 wRC+
Third time through a line up .233/.300/.355 .277 BABIP

Hendricks' primary offering(sinker) could use some work but it's not some abomination. Incidentally it's not even the worst here. Archer had the worst primary offering on his career. On the other hand, Hendricks secondary offering(change) was the best out of all of these pitchers and one of the better in baseball. For instnace, Sale and Kershaw's sliders are 30 and 31 wRC+ respectively. The difference between their OBP and Hendricks' the third time through the line up is almost entire because of BABIP. The differences are Quintana(+25/+38 OBP/BABIP), Cole(+40/+53), Walker(+57/+92), Zimmermann(+51/+80), Miller +10/+68) and Archer(+60/+91). If that comes down as you would expect, so does Hendricks OBP.

If you want to believe there's a ceiling in place on Hendricks ability because he's a 2 pitch pitcher who as of yet hasn't pitched well the third time through a line up then that's your call. But that MO fits on a number of pitchers and some of them are considered quite good. The list of 62 seasons I posted that matched what Hendricks did this past season wasn't full of many average players. So guess I'll take the over.

 

[beckdawg]

Hendricks lacks a out pitch.

The numbers on his change up would strongly disagree. Hitters are hitting .164/.191/.263 with a 32.0% K rate against it. Sale's slider players hit .155/.200/.232 against it with a 50.4% k rate. Kershaw's slider players hit .156/.191/.251 with a 44.5%. Those would arguably be two of the most unhittable 2nd offerings in baseball.

 

[DanTown]

If we're on the subject of two pitch pitchers then Jose Quintana is one. On his career he's throw 51.9% 4 seam fastballs and 23.1% curves. Gerrit Cole has thrown his 4 seam 62.2% and his slider 16.7%. Taijuan Walker threw his 4 seam 64.5% and his splitter 15.5%. Shelby Miller until this year had been 60% 4 seam 20% curve. To throw up the Jordan Zimmermann comp again, on his career he's throw 63.9% 4 seam, 20.5% slider. Chris Archer was 44.0% 4 seam, 39.1% slider last season clearly his best season. In other words, this is fairly common.

And because I'm sure the next comment will be their 2 pitchers are better than his 2 pitches.
Hendricks
Sinker - .281/.338/.407 116 wRC+
Change - .164/.191/.263 32 wRC+
Third time through a line up - .311/.360/.451 .368 BABIP

Jose Quintana
4 seam - .275/.331/.412 117 wRC+
Curve - .200/.231/.309 59 wRC+
Third time through a line up - .288/.335/.429 .330 BABIP

Gerrit Cole
4 seam - .256/.316/.352 97 wRC+
Slider - .179/.213/.276 45 wRC+
Third time through a line up .255/.320/.377 .305 BABIP

Taijuan Walker
4 seam - .242/.304/.416 112 wRC+
Splitter - .294/.319/.401 112 wRC+
Third time through a line up .242/.303/.368 .276 BABIP

Jordan Zimmermann
4 seam - .263/.311/.408 107 wRC+
Slider - .228/.263/.335 73 wRC+
Third time through a line up .257/.309/.403 .288 BABIP

Shelby Miller
4 seam - .225/.302/.363 97 wRC+
Curve - .229/.276/.354 87 wRC+
Third time through a line up .272/.350/.423 .300 BABIP

Chris Archer
4 seam - .265/.363/.396 128 wRC+
Slider - .187/.231/.288 56 wRC+
Third time through a line up .233/.300/.355 .277 BABIP

Hendricks' primary offering(sinker) could use some work but it's not some abomination. Incidentally it's not even the worst here. Archer had the worst primary offering on his career. On the other hand, Hendricks secondary offering(change) was the best out of all of these pitchers and one of the better in baseball. For instnace, Sale and Kershaw's sliders are 30 and 31 wRC+ respectively. The difference between their OBP and Hendricks' the third time through the line up is almost entire because of BABIP. The differences are Quintana(+25/+38 OBP/BABIP), Cole(+40/+53), Walker(+57/+92), Zimmermann(+51/+80), Miller +10/+68) and Archer(+60/+91). If that comes down as you would expect, so does Hendricks OBP.

If you want to believe there's a ceiling in place on Hendricks ability because he's a 2 pitch pitcher who as of yet hasn't pitched well the third time through a line up then that's your call. But that MO fits on a number of pitchers and some of them are considered quite good. The list of 62 seasons I posted that matched what Hendricks did this past season wasn't full of many average players. So guess I'll take the over.

Gerrit Cole: Throws "fastballs" that range in speeds from mid 90s to upper 90s to lower 90s. That's not "one pitch".
Quintana: His "fastball" has a range of usually around 5-8 MPH a night
Walker: Has a six-eight MPH range on his fastball
Zimmerman: Relies heavily on a fastball with not quite a lot of speed but a lot of movement (gets more movement than Hendricks sinker)
Miller: Three pitches (four seam, two seam, cutter)
Archer: Fastball with both high movement and high speed variance

Again, you're trying to compare guys Hendricks doesn't match in stuff. The ONLY guy on this list you'd say he's close to in terms of stuff is Zimmerman and Zimmerman relies on heavy movement to get his outs. Just because a guy throws "a fastball" doesn't mean he'll be easy to time. One time Gerrit Cole will throw it 92. Next time 98. Then back to 92. That's hard for a hitter to judge. Kyle's pitches don't have a ton of movement and the speed doesn't vary. There's a scouting reason that I doubt Hendricks takes the next step based on the guy he was last year.

To be perfectly honest, all of the Hendricks arguments you're making are numbers based. They aren't based on stuff, seeing him pitch, etc and while I understand that baseball is a sabermetric game and probably no one on this board understands and believes in them like I do, you cannot COMPLETELY devoid yourself of seeing how guys pitch/hit in evaluating them. When I combine what I see with the numbers, they make a ton of sense: he has decent stuff but the two pitches lack a variety to get multiple times through an order. It's why I think he needs a third pitch: two pitches that don't have a ton of variance don't lend themselves to a long shelf life.

 

[JimJohnson]

To be perfectly honest, all of the Hendricks arguments you're making are numbers based. They aren't based on stuff, seeing him pitch, etc and while I understand that baseball is a sabermetric game and probably no one on this board understands and believes in them like I do, you cannot COMPLETELY devoid yourself of seeing how guys pitch/hit in evaluating them.

Beck evaluates based on the quantitative, not qualitative. You should know this by now.

 

[beckdawg]

Fangraphs had an article about Cahill and it was talking about his sinker. Having discussed Hendricks at length I already knew the cubs had both Lester and Arrieta as sinkerball pitchers. That got me curious so I looked into it a bit more. Here's the guys this front office has acquired who throw sinkers

Arrieta
Lester
Hendricks
Cahill
Chris Volstad
Donn Roach
Dallas Beeler(not sure when he was acquired but they've used him at the MLB level)
Scott Baker
Scott Feldman
Anibal Sanchez(went after him anyways)
Masahiro Tanaka(ditto)

That seems like a lot of guys right? I mean I'm not sure what the relative percent of sinkerball pitchers in the majors is but they seem to favor starters who throw it. Someone besides me can probably give you a better reasoning as to why. My only guess is they wanted higher ground ball rates for pitchers because wrigley is wrigley. The next step here is how to apply that going further. The most interesting name at least right now that came up as a possible sinker ball pitcher to acquire is probably Steven Matz. His name has come up before as the cubs/mets SS/SP talks have happened.

The Mets have a top three of Harvey, deGrom and Syndergaard. They just re-signed Colon. And they have Wheeler likely back from TJ. So, Matz makes as much since now as he did back then. Back when they apparently tried to trade for Carlos Gomez, Juan Lagares was part of that deal. Supposedly, the mets are sniffing around Denard Span.

Now I don't love the Soler for Inciarte rumors. But Soler/Baez for Matz and Lagares? That seems kind of interesting. Lagares' defense in CF was down a bit last season but in 2013/14 it was really good. In 2014, Lagares finished right behind Incirate in UZR. In 2013, he was the #2 UZR outfielder behind Gerardo Parra. He hasn't hit much. His career triple slash is .261/.297/.364. So, in that regard he may be a bit of a poor mans Inciarte. But the obvious prize would be Matz. Lagares is signed until 2019 at $2.5 mil, $4.5 mil, $6.5 mil and $9 mil. More over, he would sort work as a good platoon partner with Cogs. Cogs crushes righties and Lagares has hit lefties well at .279/.325/.427. So, vs lefties you could theoretically run him out in CF and Heyward in RF and use him as a defensive replacement vs righties.

Just seems to me if they are truly that worried about OF defense and an apparent pitching upgrade that deal makes more sense than the one the media is throwing around.

 

[JimJohnson]

No way in hell am I giving Soler and Baez to the mets unless they're giving us deGrom.

 

[beckdawg]

No way in hell am I giving Soler and Baez to the mets unless they're giving us deGrom.

Wasn't Soler AND Baez I was suggesting. I was saying one or the other for Matz and Lagares.

 

[JimJohnson]

Wasn't Soler AND Baez I was suggesting. I was saying one or the other for Matz and Lagares.

Ah okay, that'll work then. But I doubt Mets would give us Matz and Lagares for just Baez or Soler. They would need something else, maybe toss in Hendricks.

 

[beckdawg]

Ah okay, that'll work then. But I doubt Mets would give us Matz and Lagares for just Baez or Soler. They would need something else, maybe toss in Hendricks.

Maybe, I was more or less looking at that as a starting point considering the discussion has been Soler for Inciarte. This is more Soler(or Baez) for the young pitcher people want and a lesser Inciarte.

 

[Diehardfan]

Matz would be an interesting pick up....they can keep Lagares, his good glove, his .250 avg and his OBP of under .300 and certainly not for Soler.

 

[brett05]

I am not thinking the Mets do Matz straight up for either but it would probably get the conversation started.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I am not thinking the Mets do Matz straight up for either but it would probably get the conversation started.

The Mets aren't trading a pitcher to the Cubs who look to be one of their chief rivals in the NL for a while and the cubs would likely feel the same. Smaller deals maybe but not the big guys. They'd probably listen on say Ynoa or Molina as part of a deal for Baez who they're said to like but I'm not sure Theo and company would want to see Baez in NY. Plus if they trade an MLB starter at all it's going to be Harvey and probably not until Wheeler is back, or they may trade Wheeler while he's injured. deGrom, Syndergaard, Matz are going nowhere.