You're the GM (Game)

[DanTown]

Cardinals just gave Mike Leake 5/80 with a full no trade clause. While I like Leake, here is his WAR as a Red

1.5
1.4
2.0
2.3
1.7

Granted, likely to get better in St Louis but they basically paid for that improvement.

 

[Diehardfan]

Cardinals just gave Mike Leake 5/80 with a full no trade clause. While I like Leake, here is his WAR as a Red

1.5
1.4
2.0
2.3
1.7

Granted, likely to get better in St Louis but they basically paid for that improvement.

Basically, a .500 pitcher with a 4 ERA.....watch him turn into a big winner with the Cards. I swear that team shits horseshoes.

 

[beckdawg]

Cardinals just gave Mike Leake 5/80 with a full no trade clause. While I like Leake, here is his WAR as a Red

1.5
1.4
2.0
2.3
1.7

Granted, likely to get better in St Louis but they basically paid for that improvement.

It is basically right in line with his contract. He's essentially a 2 fWAR pitcher year to year. So you'd expect 10 fWAR over 5 years at $8 mil a season gets you to $80 mil. He's also of an age where you're not gonna get murdered by the back end. I wouldn't say it's an amazing deal but it's solid similar to the Lackey deal with the cubs. Don't think you can really lose hard on either though 5 years is probably longer than I'd want him around if I were the cards with the pitching they presently have. No trade clause is probably the worst part.

 

[DanTown]

It is basically right in line with his contract. He's essentially a 2 fWAR pitcher year to year. So you'd expect 10 fWAR over 5 years at $8 mil a season gets you to $80 mil. He's also of an age where you're not gonna get murdered by the back end. I wouldn't say it's an amazing deal but it's solid similar to the Lackey deal with the cubs. Don't think you can really lose hard on either though 5 years is probably longer than I'd want him around if I were the cards with the pitching they presently have. No trade clause is probably the worst part.

If I'm giving a guy a 5 year deal, I'd hope for a higher upside than "Mike Leake becomes a 3 WAR pitcher". While he might not steeply decline, that's because a 2 WAR pitcher getting worse is basically what Mark Buerhle was last year.

Basically, I don't see the upside in a Leake deal even if it's priced fairly for what you project.

 

[beckdawg]

If I'm giving a guy a 5 year deal, I'd hope for a higher upside than "Mike Leake becomes a 3 WAR pitcher". While he might not steeply decline, that's because a 2 WAR pitcher getting worse is basically what Mark Buerhle was last year.

Basically, I don't see the upside in a Leake deal even if it's priced fairly for what you project.

I agree there's no upside really but there's really little downside other than having $16 mil/season tied up for the next 5 years. At the end of the day, consistent isn't sexy but it gets the job done. He's an average-ish player. The cards tried to sign impact in both Heyward and Price but missed out. Can't win them all.

 

[Diehardfan]

Anyone know why Mike Minor hasn't been brought up for discussion? I know he was hurt but he's only 27 and left handed...I believe the Braves non-tendered him. He might be worth a look....probably wouldn't cost much either.

 

[beckdawg]

Anyone know why Mike Minor hasn't been brought up for discussion? I know he was hurt but he's only 27 and left handed...I believe the Braves non-tendered him. He might be worth a look....probably wouldn't cost much either.

Couple of problems. Other than a really good 2013 he's been over a 4 ERA. On top of that, there's the obvious injury issues. And then you have roster crunch issues. The cubs presently have a full 40 man roster and while you could in theory get him for <x> and stash him on the 60 day DL, I doubt he'd want to come to the cubs because he's really not going to get much of a shot. It's more of a move a rebuilding team would make.

 

[knoxville7]

Couple of problems. Other than a really good 2013 he's been over a 4 ERA. On top of that, there's the obvious injury issues. And then you have roster crunch issues. The cubs presently have a full 40 man roster and while you could in theory get him for <x> and stash him on the 60 day DL, I doubt he'd want to come to the cubs because he's really not going to get much of a shot. It's more of a move a rebuilding team would make.

ahhh its good to have those years behind us finally

 

[CSF77]

Anyone know why Mike Minor hasn't been brought up for discussion? I know he was hurt but he's only 27 and left handed...I believe the Braves non-tendered him. He might be worth a look....probably wouldn't cost much either.

He would be ok on a minor league deal. Give him a shot at some innings and see if anything happens.

Cubs need a back of the rotation lefty and the system has nothing close.

 

[schizm032003]

I believe right now Theo is gonna lay back and monitor the market for the remaining players out there. He's in a position where he doesn't have to make anymore moves, so we don't have to go and bid for someone and hope we get him. At this point all he has to do is sit back, keep an eye on certain players, and if the money is right, strike a deal. I think before the season starts he'll make another signing or two, maybe make a trade when a desperate teams asking price becomes more reasonable. I believe we will see another starting pitcher added, hopefully a young cost controlled one through a trade. Before the offseason is done, I think we'll likely add another young pitcher through trade, maybe another bullpen arm, and another OF. I think in the end we'll probably trade Baez in a package to the Rays for either Moore or Cobb, and McGee, possibly Jennings thrown in the deal. Even though our starting outfield will likely be Soler, Heyward, and Schwarber, Jennings will be a great addition as he can play all three positions. He'll get time whenever someone gets a day off, or when Schwarber gets behind the plate. So the at bats will be there for Jennings to be a good producer. McGee would be a great addition giving us two new lefties, with Brothers, to the bullpen, and a backend of Grimm, Ramirez, Strop, McGee, Brothers, and Rondon, along with Edwards, if he isn't stretched back out for the rotation, and our bullpen looks better than solid.

I think we'll likely see a deal moving Hammel and possibly Strop, to a pitching needy team, so we can free up some money. I'd love to see us get Edwards some starts, I think the kid could be very good, but he needs the chance to get there. Johnson could get a call up this year as well, and I really like this kid a lot. But I really believe before the season begins we will add a nice young starting pitcher, if the deal is with the Rays I hope it's Moore. He would give us a second left hander in the rotation. He is a high strikeout pitcher, with a lot of upside. He could also learn a lot from Lester, making him even better. If we swing a deal but don't get Jennings we could see us add another OF, possibly a CF type, leaving us with a lot of leeway for Maddon to work lineups, or leave us room to trade Soler without killing the OF.

there's a lot Theo can do at this point and the beauty of it all is he don't really have to do anything now, so the market can come to us, instead of the other way around, giving us the upper hand. I'd also love to see us finish the international signing period with a slew of these cuban kids. There are some really talented kids thats available, or will be. We have Soler, and EJMartinez so these kids will have some familiarity with us. We won't be able to really sign anyone next year or the year after, cause we blew the budget out this year. Plus we lost our first two picks in the regular draft, we may get one back when Fowler signs somewhere. But with what we've added already, and the pack of cuban kids out there, we will be definately signing more to make up for the next two international signing periods and the lost picks in the regular draft. I'm pretty excited to see what type of kids we're adding to an already very strong system. With our young major league team, and the strong system we have, this is definately a great time for us cubs fans. Our championship is coming, we will get there over the next few seasons, I can't wait.

 

[CSF77]

I think we'll likely see a deal moving Hammel and possibly Strop, to a pitching needy team, so we can free up some money. I'd love to see us get Edwards some starts, I think the kid could be very good, but he needs the chance to get there. Johnson could get a call up this year as well, and I really like this kid a lot. But I really believe before the season begins we will add a nice young starting pitcher, if the deal is with the Rays I hope it's Moore. He would give us a second left hander in the rotation. He is a high strikeout pitcher, with a lot of upside. He could also learn a lot from Lester, making him even better. If we swing a deal but don't get Jennings we could see us add another OF, possibly a CF type, leaving us with a lot of leeway for Maddon to work lineups, or leave us room to trade Soler without killing the OF.

You have the don't have to trade anything part. This part is a reach.

I see it as they do nothing unless a team gives them a offer they can not refuse and that is not likely the way the market has been playing out on controllable pitching.

So what I see happening is status Que. Edwards and Johnson most likely are starting in AAA to be used on DH days. Teams are allowed to add a 26th man on those days. Just for the game 2 pitcher. So expect that to happen. Emergency starter's I would expect one of Wood, Cahill, Richard or Warren to be used in those situations. The MR depth they will have will be uncanny.

This is the key, they will be one of the deepest teams in baseball with the bench having more than one starter quality player on it and 4 former starters in the pen. It is pretty stupid at this point. They can afford a major injury and pretty much not skip a beat. That is not even getting into AAA depth.

 

[beckdawg]

Random thought of this morning.....

If we assume Schwarber is the DH in AL games(20) and is a back up catcher for around 70 games(John Baker caught 68, Ross appeared in 72), that's 90 games or close to 400 PAs where you wont have him in LF. That's not accounting for days off and such. So, realistically that's only around 58 games in LF for him to reach a "full" 650 PA season. That leaves you with roughly 103 games where LF is empty after they presumably dump Ross after the season.

Makes me wonder if McKinney is more in the cubs plans than I previously thought. His development time line coincides nicely with Zobrist contract as well.

 

[CSF77]

Too early to tell. I could see them pulling a Schwarber/Contrares situation with Schwarber in LF. It depends on both's development over the next year.

Realistic I see Contreras added late next year and becomes the back up. When Montero moves on then things will get interesting.

If Schwarber never develops as a catcher and is a liability in LF he might end up traded to net that young TOR.

 

[Omeletpants]

Random thought of this morning.....

If we assume Schwarber is the DH in AL games(20) and is a back up catcher for around 70 games(John Baker caught 68, Ross appeared in 72), that's 90 games or close to 400 PAs where you wont have him in LF. That's not accounting for days off and such. So, realistically that's only around 58 games in LF for him to reach a "full" 650 PA season. That leaves you with roughly 103 games where LF is empty after they presumably dump Ross after the season.

Makes me wonder if McKinney is more in the cubs plans than I previously thought. His development time line coincides nicely with Zobrist contract as well.

If you ever want Schwarber to be even an average LF you play him as much as possible not look for every reason to pull him

 

[knoxville7]

Too early to tell. I could see them pulling a Schwarber/Contrares situation with Schwarber in LF. It depends on both's development over the next year.

Realistic I see Contreras added late next year and becomes the back up. When Montero moves on then things will get interesting.

If Schwarber never develops as a catcher and is a liability in LF he might end up traded to net that young TOR.

Schwarber would have to be reallllllly bad in LF to become a liability. his 40+ HR potential more than makes up for sub par defense. and he will get better the more reps he sees out there.

 

[CSF77]

Schwarber would have to be reallllllly bad in LF to become a liability. his 40+ HR potential more than makes up for sub par defense. and he will get better the more reps he sees out there.

We hope.

 

[knoxville7]

We hope.

even if he doesn't get ANY better defensively(which is very unlikely to occur) his bat still more than makes up for his defense in LF. I mean seriously, if schwarber is your big concern right now, then **** we are in damn good shape!

 

[CSF77]

even if he doesn't get ANY better defensively(which is very unlikely to occur) his bat still more than makes up for his defense in LF. I mean seriously, if schwarber is your big concern right now, then **** we are in damn good shape!

Not a big concern at all. But if the farm produces a all around LF talent and Schwarber can net a ace type with control in a few years you think on doing it.

Cubs are not drafting high picks on pitching so they have to depend on luck to produce. As far as trade value Schwarber carries solid trade value.

 

[greg23]

Random thought of this morning.....

If we assume Schwarber is the DH in AL games(20) and is a back up catcher for around 70 games(John Baker caught 68, Ross appeared in 72), that's 90 games or close to 400 PAs where you wont have him in LF. That's not accounting for days off and such. So, realistically that's only around 58 games in LF for him to reach a "full" 650 PA season. That leaves you with roughly 103 games where LF is empty after they presumably dump Ross after the season.

Makes me wonder if McKinney is more in the cubs plans than I previously thought. His development time line coincides nicely with Zobrist contract as well.

Then there's the real world:

We dont have 20 games in al stadium where dh is used (we have 10)

Ross appeared in 72 games but started maybe half that and only had 150ish total ab's

Schwarber will probably get 7-8 starts at dh (most of those are in aug) and 10-20 starts at c (all of this based on no long term injuries)

Where we need to find help is with schwarber vs lhp....he has some pop but had a poor avg....assuming we sign somebody who can play cf would love to see soler get some time in lf in a mimi platoon (though it would prob be zobrist in lf with baez at 2b)

 

[beckdawg]

We dont have 20 games in al stadium where dh is used (we have 10)

Fair point. It was 4 am or so when I was writing this and it didn't occur to me that AL/NL games are both ways.

Ross appeared in 72 games but started maybe half that and only had 150ish total ab's

You're also leaving out what Schwarber batted at C. If we're going to do this easily let's just go with Baker(208 PAs in 2014) and Dioner Navarro(266 PAs in 2013). I'd argue with Schwarber's bat your far more likely to use him more like Navarro as a back up catcher since Baker really didn't hit. For the sake of argument, let's just call it 250 PAs. If you also assume he DH's in 10 games that's around another 40 or so meaning he'd need roughly 360 PAs in LF which is 90ish games. My math on what another LF would get PA wise was off but not *that* far. 72 games in LF would equate to roughly 300 PAs and when you factor in pinch hitting and off days for starters it wouldn't be shocking to see that person approach 400 PAs and possibly more if they offered more positional flexibility than just OF.

Where we need to find help is with schwarber vs lhp....he has some pop but had a poor avg....assuming we sign somebody who can play cf would love to see soler get some time in lf in a mimi platoon (though it would prob be zobrist in lf with baez at 2b)

This in particular is a bit of a stretch. He absolutely struggled vs LHP in the majors but he's only been in professional baseball around a year and a half and in the minors he hit .295/.394/.533 vs left handed pitching as opposed to .347/.445/.638 vs RHP. So, it's not as though this is some huge liability in Schwarber's game. As a comparison for a another lefty with similar style, Rizzo hit .305/.360/.551 in the minors vs lefties and also struggled his first year or two vs them. The past 2 years he's destroyed them. Last season, Rizzo had the 22nd best wRC+ vs lefties in the majors. So, if there's anyone who can help another young lefty out Rizzo's the guy.