3) I'd thought about making an entire topic to this point before but never really got up the nerve. It's really interesting how the cubs have drafted arms. There's a few outliers here and there(mainly over slot guys) but the overwhelming majority of the arms the cubs have drafted and or signed as IFA's have been for lack of a better term Kyle Hendricks. That is to say sinkerball pitchers in the high 80's/low 90's with good control. It's honestly pretty uncanny the number of guys we're talking about here. I mean honestly just go look at scouting reports of the guys who pitched in Eugene and you'll see my point. Then you also add in guys like Tseng from IFA and i could probably name upwards of 10-15 guys between rookie ball and AA who are lower velocity, ground ball pitchers with good command.
I'll leave the conclusion to be drawn here up to others but my take would probably be the front office sees that type of pitcher as undervalued. I mean Mike Leake is basically that and got 5 years $80 mil. No one is every going to get overly excited about Leake but if you can continually produce that type of arm they make your #4/5 slot pitchers really cheap and decently effective it leaves you a lot of money to just buy the #1 starter you don't have. And if we're talking about what it cost to acquire those types of arms, Ryan Williams signed for $1000($140K under slot) as a 10th round pick in 2014. That left them a lot of slot money to use on Cease, Steele and Sands. Preston Morrison was a pretty similar example in 2015 signing for $30k($144k under slot). Williams has a 2.03 ERA over 168.1 IP in various levels with a 6.8 k/9 and a 1.1 bb/9. Morrison didn't pitch a ton after being drafted from TCU but in the 22.1 innings he did pitch he had a 0.81 ERA with 12.09 k/9 and 1.21 bb/9. Not bad for two guys who were well under their slot values. Neither guy is going to be the next Jake Arrieta but if you're able to get similar production out of them to what Leake gave the Reds that's an absolute steal where and how they were drafted.
The reason for the Cubs drafting control guys is that their looking for back of the rotation guys. The assumption is that the team has the resources to acquire an ace via FA or trade but for that to work out cost wise, they have to find SP who can be cheap and give them 160-180 innings. Maybe even less if Joe experiments with the idea of having swing guys in the bullpen who come in after the first 18 hitters.
I don't think the Cubs draft strategy is some super clever idea but rather what are you going to try and find: the one electric arm that's inconsistent that one day puts it all together OR you just going to settle for the control P who is more likely to make the majors but less likely to be a high impact player? Neither one is "better" per say than the other, you just have to commit to one and can't jump around and try and dabble at both. And the other reason they're going after control guys is that they're cheaper, which does allow them to take risks in the 2nd-6th round of the draft. For all these guys you mention as great draft picks, who are the Cubs best P prospects?
Underwood - Inconsistent arm with electric stuff
Johnson - Control arm taken high
Cease - Inconsistent arm with electric stuff
Every other arm is either not good enough or too far off to really evaluate their potential. Also, you talk about everyone having "sink" but almost every arm the Cubs have drafted actually is a guy with a very good curveball.
All scouting reports via mlb.com
Underwood - Both of his secondary pitches elicit swings and misses too, with his hard curveball more reliable than his changeup.
Johnson - Johnson is tough to hit because he has two legitimate plus pitches. His 92-94 mph fastball can reach 96 and has some riding life, and his curveball can be a low-80s hammer at times. He has good feel for his changeup and also mixes in a cutter in the upper 80s.
Cease - Scouting grades: Fastball: 70 | Curveball: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 50
Hudson - Hudson had one of the best curveballs in the 2015 high school Draft class, a 75-78 mph bender with depth that should add more power as he fills out his skinny 6-foot-8 frame. He commands his curve well though he tended to rely on it too often as an amateur.
Steele - Steele is adding more power to his curveball, which already featured good depth and could give him a second plus pitch. He has some fade to his changeup but sometimes tips it off by slowing his arm speed, a correctable flaw.
Tseng - He has advanced feel for his changeup and can spin a tight curveball, both of which are plus offerings at their best.
Sands - Sands projects as a mid-rotation southpaw starter who can throw strikes with a solid repertoire. In high school and with Team USA, he displayed a 90-95 mph fastball with armside run, a curveball with 12-6 break and a changeup with a bit of fade.
Black - Though he's just 5-foot-11 and 175 pounds, Black can pump consistent 92-95 mph gas as a starter. His fastball has reached 100 mph and features riding effort. He also has three other pitches that can be average or better, with his mid-80s slider outclassing his curveball and changeup.
Unless everyone means "sinker" when they say "curveball", it's like the Cubs are drafting a shit ton of Jake Arrieta's here.
