You're the GM (Game)

[JimJohnson]

Not a big concern at all. But if the farm produces a all around LF talent and Schwarber can net a ace type with control in a few years you think on doing it.

Cubs are not drafting high picks on pitching so they have to depend on luck to produce. As far as trade value Schwarber carries solid trade value.

Very very unlikely that the farm produces someone with Schwarber's production at the plate. Last year was the first time he was ever in the bigs and he dominated. He will only get better. He could be Lance Berkman, you're not going to trade that away.

 

[greg23]

Fair point. It was 4 am or so when I was writing this and it didn't occur to me that AL/NL games are both ways.



You're also leaving out what Schwarber batted at C. If we're going to do this easily let's just go with Baker(208 PAs in 2014) and Dioner Navarro(266 PAs in 2013). I'd argue with Schwarber's bat your far more likely to use him more like Navarro as a back up catcher since Baker really didn't hit. For the sake of argument, let's just call it 250 PAs. If you also assume he DH's in 10 games that's around another 40 or so meaning he'd need roughly 360 PAs in LF which is 90ish games. My math on what another LF would get PA wise was off but not *that* far. 72 games in LF would equate to roughly 300 PAs and when you factor in pinch hitting and off days for starters it wouldn't be shocking to see that person approach 400 PAs and possibly more if they offered more positional flexibility than just OF.



This in particular is a bit of a stretch. He absolutely struggled vs LHP in the majors but he's only been in professional baseball around a year and a half and in the minors he hit .295/.394/.533 vs left handed pitching as opposed to .347/.445/.638 vs RHP. So, it's not as though this is some huge liability in Schwarber's game. As a comparison for a another lefty with similar style, Rizzo hit .305/.360/.551 in the minors vs lefties and also struggled his first year or two vs them. The past 2 years he's destroyed them. Last season, Rizzo had the 22nd best wRC+ vs lefties in the majors. So, if there's anyone who can help another young lefty out Rizzo's the guy.

You realize schwarber isnt the backup catcher, he's the 3rd catcher behind montero and ross....unless there are long term injuries i'd say starting him once a week at catcher is a stretch.....thats 24 starts (and likely never with lester or arieta on the mound)

His main position next year will be the starting lf....he'll be a luxury to have at the c position but wont be getting 250 ab's as the cubs catcher.

 

[beckdawg]

You realize schwarber isnt the backup catcher, he's the 3rd catcher behind montero and ross

Sure next year. That wasn't my point. Ross if I'm not mistaken has already suggested this is his final season. So, in 2017 and forward presumably you would be looking at having a fair amount of PAs out of a LFer. That in turn made me question whether or not I was overlooking McKinney's value to the cubs in 2017+. I'd previously felt that while I find his bat very interesting, he's not a great fit defensively in RF or CF and as a full time LF he doesn't quite provide the type of offense you would like. And by that logic, he basically becomes trade value at some point in the future. However, if you consider he might find 400 PAs off the bench in LF he sort of plays the role Cogs did in the 2nd half. And if he hits anywhere close to how he has in the minors he's arguably a better version of Cogs as a hitter. That would be a decently significant value comparative to what you typically get out of a 4th OF.

 

[brett05]

If Schwarber never develops as a catcher and is a liability in LF he might end up traded to net that young TOR.

If that happens there is no way you get a TOR for him.

 

[Parade_Rain]

If that happens there is no way you get a TOR for him.

David Ortiz was worth a TOR in his prime.

 

[brett05]

David Ortiz was worth a TOR in his prime.

Even if I agree, it's more the exception in hindsight than the rule. And Kyle will not have that kind of history in the next year or two.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Even if I agree, it's more the exception in hindsight than the rule. And Kyle will not have that kind of history in the next year or two.

It all depends on value in wins and I agree it's not a perfect comparison but if Schwarber is putting up Big Papi kind of numbers, with several years of cost control left that probably gets you a TOR pitcher. Steamer projects him as a 2.6 WAR player in 2016 but let's say that's low and he puts up 4 WAR and in 2017 tops that with 4.8 and that could be very likely. Not saying he will hit those numbers but Ortiz was putting up insane numbers in his prime at DH, putting up 24.3 fWAR over a 5 year period. Now those number were likely, ummm, enhanced but if a team thinks they'll get anything close to that say 16 or 17 WAR over 4 years or so of control they'll give up a young TOR pitcher, even if he's a DH.

 

[DanTown]

There are only two things that will make Kyle's trade value higher in the next few years: he becomes an everyday catcher. No matter how good you think the bat is, the closer he gets to FA (unless the Cubs can get him to buy-out FA now) and his arbitration years go up, the less valuable he becomes. Also, it's entirely possible that he's not quite the hitter he was his first 100 PA or so.

The ONLY way the Cubs move him is if they get back an arm that is not only controlled but cost controlled for at least 5 years. And it's entirely possible that SP is a better value for the Cubs.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

There are only two things that will make Kyle's trade value higher in the next few years: he becomes an everyday catcher. No matter how good you think the bat is, the closer he gets to FA (unless the Cubs can get him to buy-out FA now) and his arbitration years go up, the less valuable he becomes. Also, it's entirely possible that he's not quite the hitter he was his first 100 PA or so.

The ONLY way the Cubs move him is if they get back an arm that is not only controlled but cost controlled for at least 5 years. And it's entirely possible that SP is a better value for the Cubs.

See I think he's a better hitter than he's shown so far. He has such a pure swing and he projects to getting more disciplined, maybe more so than most power hitters, at the plate. Wouldn't surprise me to see him slashing something like .290/.380/.490 eventually with a 20% K rate. To me he looks like the best hitter of this whole bunch but time will tell. I don't think he's ever a catcher though.

 

[DanTown]

See I think he's a better hitter than he's shown so far. He has such a pure swing and he projects to getting more disciplined, maybe more so than most power hitters, at the plate. Wouldn't surprise me to see him slashing something like .290/.380/.490 eventually with a 20% K rate. To me he looks like the best hitter of this whole bunch but time will tell. I don't think he's ever a catcher though.

The point is if he's "just" a hitter than his value likely won't get too much higher. Also, it becomes harder to actualize his hitting value in the NL because playing him AB means you have to play him in the field where as an AL team can get all the value without the lack of defense. Also, in LF he's not going to be a guy who ever gets to 600+ PA because the Cubs will probably move him for defense in enough situations.

I'm not advocating trading Schwarber to trade him or because I feel his value is inflated; I think that the type of pitcher he can garner is more important than his bat.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

The point is if he's "just" a hitter than his value likely won't get too much higher. Also, it becomes harder to actualize his hitting value in the NL because playing him AB means you have to play him in the field where as an AL team can get all the value without the lack of defense. Also, in LF he's not going to be a guy who ever gets to 600+ PA because the Cubs will probably move him for defense in enough situations.

I'm not advocating trading Schwarber to trade him or because I feel his value is inflated; I think that the type of pitcher he can garner is more important than his bat.

Maybe it plays out that way, I just don't think so. I think too much was made of his defensive struggles in the playoffs. He's never going to be good in LF but he doesn't have to be. I think he's eventually going to be essentially Joey Votto at the plate wile hitting more home runs. If he's that, even if he's slightly below average in LF, I don't trade him for pitching.

 

[SilenceS]

Maybe it plays out that way, I just don't think so. I think too much was made of his defensive struggles in the playoffs. He's never going to be good in LF but he doesn't have to be. I think he's eventually going to be essentially Joey Votto at the plate wile hitting more home runs. If he's that, even if he's slightly below average in LF, I don't trade him for pitching.

Thats a bold statement. I don't think he will ever walk a Joey Votto rate. Votto got derailed by injuries but look at his second half. I still think people need to pump the brakes on Schwarber. He has flaws and they were exposed. People over did his playoff hitting. He got into some balls but his weaknesses were def. exposed. Its like this. Does he keep the weight off? Can he play a position well enough? Lets hope he adjusts because the league will have plenty of film on him now. He was terrible against lefties and I would suggest he probably struggles with them again. I don't care if he hit them in the minors. Lefty specialist in the majors are totally different animals. They are paid to do one thing. I think it would take some years for him to get a handle on it. It took Rizzo awhile and I believe Rizzo to have a better eye and a better two strike approach.

 

[knoxville7]

haha like I said....if schwarber is our biggest concern, then damn! personally, I don't even consider trading him, would have to be blown away by an offer and I don't think thatll happen. I don't see why anyone would want to trade him for a pitcher when we already have one of the best staffs in baseball currently :shrug: the bigger issue last year was hitting, so removing schwarber makes no sense to me. I love having our 3 - 4 - 5 of the lineup being Rizzo, Bryant, Schwarber....although im pretty sure opposing pitchers are going to hate it for the next several years

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Thats a bold statement. I don't think he will ever walk a Joey Votto rate. Votto got derailed by injuries but look at his second half. I still think people need to pump the brakes on Schwarber. He has flaws and they were exposed. People over did his playoff hitting. He got into some balls but his weaknesses were def. exposed. Its like this. Does he keep the weight off? Can he play a position well enough? Lets hope he adjusts because the league will have plenty of film on him now. He was terrible against lefties and I would suggest he probably struggles with them again. I don't care if he hit them in the minors. Lefty specialist in the majors are totally different animals. They are paid to do one thing. I think it would take some years for him to get a handle on it. It took Rizzo awhile and I believe Rizzo to have a better eye and a better two strike approach.

You're almost certainly right on the BB rate Votto's is absurdly good. Also I couldn't agree more on the adjustments he will have to make particularly against left handers. I also agree with the comparison to Rizzo who some call a Votto-light but also will never have that kind of a walk rate. From what I hear about Schwarber, his ability to take coaching and his drive I expect Schwarber to be a better hitter than Rizzo. Maybe I'm wrong but I see something about this kid that I haven't seen in a player in a very long time. Can't quantify it I just have to go on gut.

 

[SilenceS]

You're almost certainly right on the BB rate Votto's is absurdly good. Also I couldn't agree more on the adjustments he will have to make particularly against left handers. I also agree with the comparison to Rizzo who some call a Votto-light but also will never have that kind of a walk rate. From what I hear about Schwarber, his ability to take coaching and his drive I expect Schwarber to be a better hitter than Rizzo. Maybe I'm wrong but I see something about this kid that I haven't seen in a player in a very long time. Can't quantify it I just have to go on gut.

No issues on that. I'm the same with Baez and have been for years


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[85Bears]

I can't believe we're talking about fucking Kyle Schwarber's weaknesses. I love this team...

 

[A.C. Milan]

I can't believe we're talking about fucking Kyle Schwarber's weaknesses. I love this team...

Kris Bryant also goes strike out too much... we should get a contact hitter like Alexei Ramirez maybe

 

[DanTown]

Trading Kyle Schwarber for a legitimate TOR type arm that has years of cost control to it isn't "selling" or "giving up" or "dumping" Kyle; it's saying that the Cubs have a larger need for that type of arm that a package of prospects headlined by both Soler AND Baez cannot get. While I love Kyle, let's say McKinney is ready in a year to be an everyday LF. I in fact love Kyle's bat and want the Cubs to make him a C because I feel he

A) won't be terrible if he gets time to develop and
B) it's clearly the most valuable way to use him.

If the Cubs don't want to go that route OR they feel Schwarber can't catch full-time, I'd say recognize his value and get a potential ace that will open up money when you really need it. Because holding on to him, especially after signing Heyward, wouldn't make the same sense. I guess you have to feel he's a top 5-10 bat (and maybe a 5-7 WAR) but if he's not, he's a sub 4 WAR guy and the Cubs can probably find a sub 4 WAR guy (like Chris Coghlan's production) AND have a top flight SP.

 

[CSF77]

I would do it if Almora becomes that good which pushes Soler to LF. McKenny would have to have 25 HR power with a .300 BA to even muse on it.

 

[SilenceS]

Well, hate to burst your bubble but it could be an option. A lot of talk has the Cubs not resigning Arrieta if he doesn't sign an extension which is unlikely with Boras. You are talking Grienke money at 32 would be his range and most don't think the Cubs won't go that route


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