2012 Cubs Draft Thread

[dabynsky]

I think that leverage only goes so far. The sandwich picks in particular will make almost as much as what they would pay Almora (what's an extra $500K to $1MM with compound interest right). If they're getting "you can retire like right now" money (i.e. $500K or more) they're very likely to just skip college unless they have a greedy agent.

I agree that these guys are likely to sign, but I am curious to see how the market shifts with the signing bonus pools. I trust Theo and Jed here, but I wouldn't be surprised if we miss out on a guy or two in the first ten rounds given how high school they've gone.

 

[dabynsky]

Angels first pick was 114 due to the spending spree. This is one of the reasons why the Cubs weren't active this offseason.

 

[dabynsky]

Update from BleacherNation on McNeil:

3. Ryan McNeil, RHP, Nipomo HS (CA) – Another high school pitcher for the Cubs (that’s three in a row). He’s 6’3″, 210 lbs, so, yes, he’s another big kid, who throws hard. The Cubs certainly have a type early in this Draft (and it’s exactly what they said they wanted). I’m a little surprised that they haven’t taken a lefty yet, though. McNeil was apparently worked out by the Cubs some time ago, so he was obviously on their radar. He was also telling teams that he was “pretty interested in signing,” so it’s fair to wonder if the Cubs might have known they could sign him easily.

 

[dabynsky]

Hard throwing right handers seems to be the theme for the Cubs. I wonder if they will make it 4 in row from high school with their next pick.

 

[dabynsky]

Josh Conway-right handed pitcher. He has had TJS. College pitcher. He threw 50 innings with 55 strikeouts. 94-96 mph fastball and a good slider. Probably was a sandwich or 2nd round pick if healthy.

 

[bleacherbum54]

going upside players all the way. I guess we have to with the lack of talent in the system.

 

[Rice Cube]

In the smaller Big South Conference, Coastal Carolina has built a pretty good program that saw four players get drafted and sign in 2011. This year, it could have been Conway's turn before an elbow injury ended his season and required Tommy John surgery. Once a two-way player, Conway gave up hitting completely to focus on the mound in 2012 and it was paying off. Coastal Carolina's Friday starter, he’s a bit of an undersized right-hander, but one with a pretty good three-pitch mix. A good athlete on the mound, he throws a fastball, slider and changeup, all of which have the chance to be solid average offerings. Without truly overpowering stuff, he’ll have to continue to improve his command and keep hitters off-balance. Pre-injury, he had the chance to join teammate (and 2011 second-round pick) Anthony Meo as a fairly early Draft pick. Now a team will have to be willing to draft him and let him rehab under its watchful eye.

 

[dabynsky]

Baseball America report on the injury to Conway which happened in late April apparently:
Coastal Carolina righthander Josh Conway will miss the remainder of the season, reports Ryan Young of The Sun News in Myrtle Beach, S.C.

Conway, who stands 6-foot-1 and 175 pounds, was a 42nd-round pick by the Braves out of high school and was looking like a second-round talent this year before the injury. In his start on Thursday night, Conway was up to 96 mph early in the game, but left in the fourth inning, when his velocity was down in the 86-89 mph range. Conway was 4-1, 2.14 this season with 50 strikeouts and 18 walks over 55 innings.

 

[dabynsky]

Apparently the TJS was/will be done, Callis seemed to think it was already done but I can't find confirmation yet, by Dr. James Andrews. Again this seems like a nice pick with yet another power arm being added to the system. Obviously they won't hit on all of these, but the odds of one or two of these guys being useful big leaguers gets pretty high when you stack so many of them up.

 

[Rice Cube]

Now they just have to hire the right coaches to teach them to keep throwing strikes.

 

[dabynsky]

Now they just have to hire the right coaches to teach them to keep throwing strikes.

Underwood and McNeil seem like the projects that are going to make the minor league coaches earn their scratch. Johnson and Conway seem like they are pretty good pitchers to begin with, but the question is can they stay healthy.

 

[Rice Cube]

Cubs will get 42 new guys this year (assuming they all sign) and if the odds are good, two or three of the first 12 and maybe one or two of the last 30 will pan out. That's unfortunately the nature of baseball.

 

[dabynsky]

Exactly that is why I guess you see the taking of all these arms. The attrition rate on these guys means that most won't make it, but you shift your odds of getting some useful pieces with all these hgih upside guys being chosen.

 

[Rice Cube]

Indeed...the next Albert Pujols or Roy Halladay has to come from somewhere

 

[Rice Cube]

Anyone recall how the slot bonuses are allocated?

Cubs have ~$8MM to spend for 12 picks.

My guesstimate...

1st round: $3MM
Supp43: $1.5MM
Supp56: $0.9MM
2: $0.85MM
3: $0.6MM
4: $0.4MM
5: $0.3MM
6: $0.2MM
7: $0.1MM
8: $75K
9: $60K
10: $50K

 

[Rice Cube]

Ah, I was almost right...

http://www.mymlbdraft.com/2012-mlb-draft-slot-values
BaseballAmerica.com: Draft: Slots You Can Believe In

I was way too top-heavy.

 

[dabynsky]

Yeah I thought the last rounds looked odd since you get 100k for everyone past round 10.

 

[Rice Cube]

Yeah I thought the last rounds looked odd since you get 100k for everyone past round 10.

I forgot about the hard slot past a certain point. Guess it doesn't make a difference then but if you choose a kid at round 11 with that $100K and he's like 50 times better than the round 40 kid, seems like a bad return on investment for the round 40 kid

 

[dabynsky]

Kid from Galesburg High School going ahead of the Cubs in the fifth round.

 

[dabynsky]

LHP Anthony Prieto-High School. Relatively new to pitching. Not the biggest guy in the world. 5'11". Forearm strain. Reports that he hit 97 in a spring game.