Rice, what makes you sure that Almora will sign?
Slot is $3.25MM. Almora is a kid who obviously wants to play baseball and wants to do it for a shitload of money. The Cubs saved some $ with underslot so they could potentially offer more to Almora or one of the 11th round or later picks. If Almora doesn't sign then they're out that $3.25MM but still have $4MM or so to spend on their other top 10 round picks. They also get a compensation pick at #7 next season (or a bit later depending on who else in the top 5 doesn't sign). The Cubs essentially have all the leverage, whereas Almora is not likely to make much more than slot if he signs now. If Boras is an idiot and tells Almora to go to college, he can't be drafted for another three years, which is well within the scope of this current CBA.
That means that Almora is waiting three years for the chance to make up the difference between his current slot ($3.25MM) and the #1 pick slot (I think it was $7MM). He also risks an injury that could drop his value, the fact that younger kids with upside also go into the draft and further drop his value and his draft position, all for the hope that he might make a few extra million when all he has to do is take the Cubs' offer and put it in the bank and he'll almost make up the difference with wise investments.
So...you're Almora. What would YOU do?
If it were me I'd tell Boras to **** off and take the money, but Almora is doing the smart thing anyway and trying to squeeze as much money out of the Cubs as he can. It'll probably only be a couple hundred thousand more, but he'll sign. He has very little incentive not to.
