2012 Cubs Draft Thread

[cubsneedmiracle]

Don't draft for need in early rds. Draft best player

What if he is the best player and fits a need..

Hmmm.. Think I've already gone over this.. :thinking:

 

[Jntg4]

What if he is the best player and fits a need..

Hmmm.. Think I've already gone over this.. :thinking:

Correa is hands down the best player.

 

[dabynsky]

Callis has the Cubs taking Almora even with Correra on the board.

 

[dabynsky]

Conspiracy theory with no proof to back it up, but Law has said that the Cubs picking Almora is the closest thing to a lock in the first 10 rounds. Now it could be that the Cubs really, really like Almora who according to Goldstein is a higher rated prospect than Baez. Or it could be my conspiracy theory that the Cubs might have gotten some indications that Almora might be willing to sign a bit below slot. That would free up some cash that could be used on later picks. The Cubs could then perhaps use a supplemental pick on high school righty Lucas Giolito, who might have the most upside of any arm in the draft but also has some serious medical red flags. Doubt this works out the way I hope, but if the Cubs could snag Almora and Giolito that would be a pretty awesome draft.

 

[Rice Cube]

So if I understand the CBA correctly (and I probably don't because I don't do lawyerese) the first 10 rounds have a set pool of money, so dabynsky's theory could work. However it seems dumbth for them to do that since they A- actually have money and B- have a front office that is willing to do this right. If they truly feel Almora is the best then so be it. If one of the top 5 drops to them at #6 I think they take that one instead, especially if it's a pitcher.

Guess we'll find out on Monday

 

[Rice Cube]

2012 MLB Mock Draft | 2012 MLB Draft | MLB Draft |

Almora seems to be the pick based on today's updated mock on this blog. I guess there's a >80% chance this happens.

 

[cubsneedmiracle]

Correa is hands down the best player.

That may be true.. Will either be there?

 

[Rice Cube]

I think the top five are unlikely to drop to #6 but if the Cubs are lucky they might get Zunino. If not Correa or Almora seem fine. You basically won't know if Theo hit the jackpot or totally fucked it up for another couple years anyway, just hope they find good coaches to not screw up their development.

 

[dabynsky]

It will be interesting to see. Last year's draft, this draft, next years draft, and a Soler signing could really boost this system rankings.

 

[Rice Cube]

Even if the system ends up being top-heavy that'd be nice, we need impact talent and less "depth".

 

[dabynsky]

So if I understand the CBA correctly (and I probably don't because I don't do lawyerese) the first 10 rounds have a set pool of money, so dabynsky's theory could work. However it seems dumbth for them to do that since they A- actually have money and B- have a front office that is willing to do this right. If they truly feel Almora is the best then so be it. If one of the top 5 drops to them at #6 I think they take that one instead, especially if it's a pitcher.

Guess we'll find out on Monday

The reason I am guessing something liek this is because you have a guy like Giolito out there. If of those top 5 arms falls I could see them go with them, but Almora might offer the chance to grab two top 10 talents. Again working on the theory that Almora would be willing to sign for less than slot and that Giolito would be willing to settle for a few million. A lot of ifs, but that has the highest potential for netting two impacts players. In most circumstances I agree with your logic, Rice. I just see one very unlikely scenario where it might work out to "game" the system a little.

 

[Rice Cube]

The flip side is...if Giolito is going to be a supplemental round or second-round pick, he's not going to command that much anyway, right? Is he supposed to go to college or something?

The almost hard slotting makes it more difficult for guys to hold out if they don't have college as leverage. I see where you're coming from but agree that it's extremely unlikely that they gamble like that.

 

[cubsneedmiracle]

Even if the system ends up being top-heavy that'd be nice, we need impact talent and less "depth".

I'll take whatever we can at this point.. Some of everything would be fine.

 

[Rice Cube]

First 10 rounds (the guys who make the $$) should be impact guys while the rest should be filler. That's how I'd do it.

 

[dabynsky]

The flip side is...if Giolito is going to be a supplemental round or second-round pick, he's not going to command that much anyway, right? Is he supposed to go to college or something?

The almost hard slotting makes it more difficult for guys to hold out if they don't have college as leverage. I see where you're coming from but agree that it's extremely unlikely that they gamble like that.

Lucas Giolito is a high schooler, and teammate of first round pick Max Fried. Giolito had a solid shot at going first overall, but he has a strained UCL. He hasn't pitched since March, and that is why he is unlikely to be taken in the first 10 picks. He has made a commitment to UCLA so if he doesn't get big bucks he likely goes to UCLA to prove that his arm is okay. He is a big, tall right hander with true #1 stuff by almost all accounts. Again if it weren't for the medical issues it is likely that he would have been long gone before the Cubs picked. He is a very high risk proposition since he likely will take a big deal to not go to UCLA and he isn't going to be able to pitch until after the deadline to sign him. Simply put this guy has perhaps the highest upside of any guy in the draft, but might also come with the highest risk. That is why the wheels started spinning in my head that perhaps an Almora pick with an understanding to sign for underslot might be a play to pick Giolito with the supplemental round pick. Again so many ifs involved that I doubt it happens, but it is fun to think about.

 

[Rice Cube]

Ah, I see.

Do you recall if the unsigned pick compensation still exists under the new CBA? If it does then I feel like they'd risk that in the second round rather than the sandwich round. That way if he decides not to sign, they get a compensatory pick next year.

 

[dabynsky]

Ah, I see.

Do you recall if the unsigned pick compensation still exists under the new CBA? If it does then I feel like they'd risk that in the second round rather than the sandwich round. That way if he decides not to sign, they get a compensatory pick next year.

Yeah I don't know about that either. When are we divvying up the CBA to find the loopholes?

 

[Rice Cube]

Yeah I don't know about that either. When are we divvying up the CBA to find the loopholes?

Whenever I stop being lazy I guess :lol:

 

[dabynsky]

Whenever I stop being lazy I guess :lol:

The rules about what picks you get compensation for not signing would certainly come into play, and teams like the Nats, Rangers, or Blue Jays might make a play on him in the later first round to spoil the whole thing. Again I highly doubt that is what Theo and Jed are thinking but man would that be awesome to get a player like Almora with the number 6 pick and be able to get a guy with Giolito's ceiling later in the draft.

 

[Rice Cube]

Forgot if this had been posted, but the numbers haven't changed:

Baseball America | Blog | Baseball America Draft Blog | 2012 Aggregate Bonus Pools

Cubs have 12 picks in the first ten rounds and can only spend $7,933,900 total without penalty. The 5% overage tax allows them to spend up to $396695 more than that without forfeiting future first round picks. They would then have to cough up that same amount to MLB as penalty.

As Dabynsky said previously, if they decide to go way underslot for somebody they could then allocate the remaining $$ to someone else. Basically they could decide to draft whoever, find out who is most likely to sign, and then allocate the $ accordingly. Therefore if they waste a 10th round pick on a kid who was strongly committed to college but can be bought (i.e. a Dillon Maples) they could say to hell with rounds 2-9 and give that kid all the $. I don't know how likely this is but they could game the system that way.

They could also decide that blowing a shit-ton of money on one guy is worth forfeiting two future first-rounders but that is a huge risk that I'm not sure many teams will make.