2015 cubs in season trades

[beckdawg]

Oh this is also relevant to the cubs.

Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi 17m17 minutes ago
Jose Reyes likely to be flipped by #Rockies. Colorado has highly regarded shortstop prospect Trevor Story at Triple-A.

 

[SilenceS]

That Toronto offense is insane.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi 28m28 minutes ago
Daniel Norris is *not* in the trade, source says. #BlueJays #Rockies

Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi 5m5 minutes ago
Miguel Castro likely going to #Rockies in the Tulowitzki blockbuster, source says. #BlueJays

Castro was Toronto's #5 ranked prospect and mlb.com has a 50 grade on him so think Pierce Johnson level player. Seems a bit light here though there could still be another team out there as part of a 3 way deal.

Jeff Hoffman ended up going to Colorado in that trade as well. Nice deal for the Rockies.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

It would appear that the Cubs number one target is Tyson Ross but he's on several other team's radar as well. The drawback is that in dealing Ross the Padres will require the trading team to take Jedd Gyorko. I like Ross but taking on garbage doesn't interest me.

 

[CSF77]

• Kyle Schwarber played one inning in left field on Sunday, and caught the only ball hit to him. The rookie may get more playing time there, Maddon said Monday.

"You saw him play one minute of outfield [Sunday]," Maddon said. "You might see him out there more often as we move along."

On days when Schwarber is not starting at catcher, he's working on outfield drills with coach Dave Martinez

 

[CSF77]

It would appear that the Cubs number one target is Tyson Ross but he's on several other team's radar as well. The drawback is that in dealing Ross the Padres will require the trading team to take Jedd Gyorko. I like Ross but taking on garbage doesn't interest me.

Jedd would be a bench player. Plays 3B, 2B and I'll bet they move him around more. 1B and corner OF I'll bet. His value would go up then.

Alcantara I'm not sure on. I'm pretty surprised that they have not even bothered recalling him this year.

 

[Chief Walking Stick]

Come on Theo... MAKE ME A BO-LIEVER!

 

[brett05]

Come on Theo... MAKE ME A BO-LIEVER!

OT, Bo is my 8 year old's favorite wrestler. I got her a pair of sweats, tshirt, and hoodie on clearance from the WWEShop.

ok, back to the trade deadline.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Jedd would be a bench player. Plays 3B, 2B and I'll bet they move him around more. 1B and corner OF I'll bet. His value would go up then.

Alcantara I'm not sure on. I'm pretty surprised that they have not even bothered recalling him this year.

Alcantara has never found his groove in Iowa for more than a few days at a time and he's been unable to stabilize his swing. I still think he's a MLB player, maybe not an everyday player, but he's going to have to prove that again before he gets a call up. I think he could be a piece in a deal either now or in the winter.

My issue with Gyorko is that he's going to make a lot of money for a bench player even in 2016 and that contract really stings after that. Still if Tyson Ross becomes a solid middle of your rotation guy, which he is more than capable of, for a number of years than it might be worth taking on that contract. I'm not quite sold on that aspect yet.

 

[CSF77]

Jedd caps out at 13 mil. His deal is not that bad. Maddon and Theo want to have that depth going on to give more days off in the year.

Now they could just promote Olt again and.....

 

[beckdawg]

Alcantara has never found his groove in Iowa for more than a few days at a time and he's been unable to stabilize his swing. I still think he's a MLB player, maybe not an everyday player, but he's going to have to prove that again before he gets a call up. I think he could be a piece in a deal either now or in the winter.

My issue with Gyorko is that he's going to make a lot of money for a bench player even in 2016 and that contract really stings after that. Still if Tyson Ross becomes a solid middle of your rotation guy, which he is more than capable of, for a number of years than it might be worth taking on that contract. I'm not quite sold on that aspect yet.

On Jedd, as long as he's around a 1 fWAR player for most of the deal he's worth the money he's making. The last few years balloon that deal a bit but one of the $13 mil years has a buy out. Also, you have to factor in losing Castro's money for presumably Baez and gaining a cheaper Ross rather than Price or whomever they would chase in FA. Additionally, it's possible Baez isn't quite ready and Jedd might start some at 2B. I'm not holding out a ton of hope but his BABIP has been substantially lower than you'd expect. At a career .270 BABIP, his .228/.289/.383 looks pretty meh. But if you toss 30 points on his average and OBP and push him to .258/.319 with 20 HR power out of 2B and he might not be that bad a trade chip later.

Keep in mind he's also played so many games in PETCO which isn't a hitting friendly place. He's a career .216/.283/.396 hitter in PETCO over 590 PAs and a .240/.295/.372 hitter away over 587 PAs. That might not seem like much difference admittedly but young players tend to hit better at home. For example, Bryant is hitting .288/.400/.588 at wrigley and .225/.320/.337 away. Also keep in mind the difference between Rizzo in PETCO vs wrigley(.167/.298/.314 at PETCO vs .280/.381/.477 in wrigley).

That's not to say I think Jedd will be an amazing player but I think you can work around his money if he's what it takes to get a pitcher you like.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

On Jedd, as long as he's around a 1 fWAR player for most of the deal he's worth the money he's making. The last few years balloon that deal a bit but one of the $13 mil years has a buy out. Also, you have to factor in losing Castro's money for presumably Baez and gaining a cheaper Ross rather than Price or whomever they would chase in FA. Additionally, it's possible Baez isn't quite ready and Jedd might start some at 2B. I'm not holding out a ton of hope but his BABIP has been substantially lower than you'd expect. At a career .270 BABIP, his .228/.289/.383 looks pretty meh. But if you toss 30 points on his average and OBP and push him to .258/.319 with 20 HR power out of 2B and he might not be that bad a trade chip later.

Keep in mind he's also played so many games in PETCO which isn't a hitting friendly place. He's a career .216/.283/.396 hitter in PETCO over 590 PAs and a .240/.295/.372 hitter away over 587 PAs. That might not seem like much difference admittedly but young players tend to hit better at home. For example, Bryant is hitting .288/.400/.588 at wrigley and .225/.320/.337 away. Also keep in mind the difference between Rizzo in PETCO vs wrigley(.167/.298/.314 at PETCO vs .280/.381/.477 in wrigley).

That's not to say I think Jedd will be an amazing player but I think you can work around his money if he's what it takes to get a pitcher you like.

I get the dollars allocation, and again if they're looking at an upgrade in terms of hitting at 2B which they are apparently are it makes a lot of sense. Basically Gyorko would replace Herrera. However I don't think getting Ross precludes getting a TOR starter in FA. I think they'll go after Price hard regardless. Obviously you hope that Ross becomes a TOR guy but realistically his ceiling is probably a 3 on contending rotation. I think if they acquire Ross and sign Price you'd be looking at a 2016 rotation of Price, Arrietta, Lester, Hammel, Ross with Hendricks moving to long relief and spot starting. That's a heck of a staff and one of the best rotations in baseball. I also don't rule out them dealing Arietta maybe as early as this time next year or the winter following if they find they can't extend him. I think the the 3-5 slots in the rotation could be very fluid over the contention window.

 

[TL1961]

Tulo is going to wind up in St Louis

 

[Doubledown]

• Kyle Schwarber played one inning in left field on Sunday, and caught the only ball hit to him. The rookie may get more playing time there, Maddon said Monday.

"You saw him play one minute of outfield [Sunday]," Maddon said. "You might see him out there more often as we move along."

On days when Schwarber is not starting at catcher, he's working on outfield drills with coach Dave Martinez

has he ever played @ second base? Love to see Russell at SS

 

[TC in Mississippi]

has he ever played @ second base? Love to see Russell at SS

LOL. I think he would officially be the largest man to ever play 2B. That's not happening.

On a 2B note though I'm not sure it's wise to dismiss the Dustin Pedroia rumors if Castro is dealt. He's owed a lot of money but looking at Wrigley Field these days I'm not so sure money will matter much going forward.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Tulo is going to wind up in St Louis

That's an interesting notion. How do you figure? Toronto moves him in the offseason after going for it all this year?

 

[beckdawg]

LOL. I think he would officially be the largest man to ever play 2B. That's not happening.

On a 2B note though I'm not sure it's wise to dismiss the Dustin Pedroia rumors if Castro is dealt. He's owed a lot of money but looking at Wrigley Field these days I'm not so sure money will matter much going forward.

Keep in mind they just ate $15 mil on Jackson. So for the next 2 years at least money could be tight. Still have to lock up Arrieta and Ross/whomever they sign in FA at pitcher. Plus, in the next 2-3 years you're going to start talking on long term deals for Bryant/Russell/Soler...etc. I'm not so sure the cubs are going to go crazy with money.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Keep in mind they just ate $15 mil on Jackson. So for the next 2 years at least money could be tight. Still have to lock up Arrieta and Ross/whomever they sign in FA at pitcher. Plus, in the next 2-3 years you're going to start talking on long term deals for Bryant/Russell/Soler...etc. I'm not so sure the cubs are going to go crazy with money.

Maybe not but they can refinance their team deal starting in 2016 and get out from under the debt service restrictions. They bought the team for $900 million and current estimates have it worth $2 billion today. That's a heck of a return in 5 years. I don't think they'll be foolish but where I used to think they'd top off at a budget of $150 million I think $180-$190 million is probably possible. Those are things that we won't know until they happen though. Just speculation.

 

[beckdawg]

Maybe not but they can refinance their team deal starting in 2016 and get out from under the debt service restrictions. They bought the team for $900 million and current estimates have it worth $2 billion today. That's a heck of a return in 5 years. I don't think they'll be foolish but where I used to think they'd top off at a budget of $150 million I think $180-$190 million is probably possible. Those are things that we won't know until they happen though. Just speculation.

I think the bigger revenue is tied to tv deals honestly and IIRC they are on CSN until 2019. I know the WGN portion is still up for grabs next year and they could sell that to the person ultimately who will get the CSN portion next year to give them a bit of a bump but sort of feel like they are stuck where they are salary wise until that is figured out. While they could refinance the team as you say, I feel like that money would go back into the stadium/surrounding property rather than the team itself.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Jim Bowden at ESPN is floating the following trade possibility; Tyson Ross and Craig Kimbrel for Starlin Castro, Billy McKinney, Pierce Johnson and Carl Edwards Jr. My first thought was that it was a bit too much pitching depth to give up but damn that deal helps now and later for the Cubs. Of course then you'd have to pick up a second baseman that can hit or roll the dice with Baez, at least for this year.