2018 Bears - Perception does NOT equal Reality

[Warrior Spirit]

Bears offense is 20th in the league in total yardage. Not terrible, but not too great either. Need more Allen Robinson targets deep.

As pointed out before, as mighty as the Bears defense has been perceived, they are 24th in the league in 2nd half points allowed.

While people can point the finger of blame to the backup QB for the upset against the Giants, the same problem with the D being to giving in the 2nd half was also a factor in the upset by the Osweiler led Dolphins.

 

[onebud34]

And now they hang from a thread, not so much cause of a more difficult schedule, but because their defense faltered and their offense just never really got it going.

Come again?

Your reply totally debunked your theory

 

[Warrior Spirit]

Come again?

Your reply totally debunked your theory

No, the theory just basically says perceptions do not equal reality. It is not even widely perceived that the Eagles have fallen cause of a tougher schedule.

 

[onebud34]

No, the theory just basically says perceptions do not equal reality. It is not even widely perceived that the Eagles have fallen cause of a tougher schedule.

Because the perception doesn't equate to reality...they played a last place schedule last year

 

[BearFanJohn]

The Bears are not a great team at the moment. They are a good team with a lead in their division and a good chance to win their division. Better than we all thought or dreamed. But they are a work in progress which is a positive for fans because they are already good. Improvement next year could make them great.

 

[Sculpt]

Agree with Bearmick in general.

Bears Defense is really good, but the team still believes the hype and falls to trap games, halves and 4th quarters, they reduce their efforts and just expect to win.

The Offense is much improved, but it's still inconsistent -- not so much with Trubisky, thankfully, but more Nagy's game plan, play calling, struggles with the run blocking, losing Long, dealing with Witzmann. Now you lose Mitch and play Daniel for two games, you get a lot more inconsistency.

 

[jonimus]

Because the perception doesn't equate to reality...they played a last place schedule last year

It's simple.

Perception: The 2017 Eagles were a good team last year because they won the Superbowl.

Reality: They had the easiest schedule in football.

Realized Perception: The 2017 Eagles were a bad football team.

Perceived Reality: This is the Matrix. Fortunately for us, Spartan is Ms. Cleo.

 

[Warrior Spirit]

It's simple.

Perception: 2017 Eagles were a good team because they won the Superbowl last year.

Reality: They had the easiest schedule in football last year.

Perceived reality: The 2017 Eagles were a bad football team.

Realized Perception: This is the matrix. Fortunately for us, Spartan is Ms. Cleo.

Incorrect on all counts. Roughly 30% of SB teams have missed the playoffs the following season. While some may perceive this to be due to a tougher schedule, the reality is the schedule will never be that much tougher as schedule makers have to stay within certain set parameters so really any 1st place team could only expect 2 slightly tougher games on their next schedule.

All teams in the same division will always have 6 games within their division. They will always play the same division from the AFC. And they will always play the same one division from the NFC, leaving only 2 games that will be taken from the other 2 NFC divisions. So maybe they get 2 slightly tougher games if those 2 teams chosen are as good or better than they were the previous year. Maybe they get lucky and those 2 teams that were good, now suck. The flawed perception of tougher schedule for the 1st place team then goes out the window.

 

[Sculpt]

Because the perception doesn't equate to reality...they played a last place schedule last year

The Eagles may have played the easiest schedule last year (I'll take your word for it), but that didn't win all they're playoff games and the Superbowl. They blewout teams along the way, they were that good. They aren't the same team this year, though I'm sure the roster is very similar.

 

[onebud34]

Incorrect on all counts. Roughly 30% of SB teams have missed the playoffs the following season. While some may perceive this to be due to a tougher schedule, the reality is the schedule will never be that much tougher as schedule makers have to stay within certain set parameters so really any 1st place team could only expect 2 slightly tougher games on their next schedule.

All teams in the same division will always have 6 games within their division. They will always play the same division from the AFC. And they will always play the same one division from the NFC, leaving only 2 games that will be taken from the other 2 NFC divisions. So maybe they get 2 slightly tougher games if those 2 teams chosen are as good or better than they were the previous year. Maybe they get lucky and those 2 teams that were good, now suck. The flawed perception of tougher schedule for the 1st place team then goes out the window.

So in your words the weak schedule argument is irrelevant.

The perception is the Bears are having a great year in the genius HC's first year. The reality is they have been fortuitous and good fortune doesn't hold up for long, and Nagy's not a genius. The team has relied heavily on their weak schedule and league leading number of turnovers and, as we saw last Sunday, when that turnover advantage isn't there bad things happen.

 

[onebud34]

The Eagles may have played the easiest schedule last year (I'll take your word for it), but that didn't win all they're playoff games and the Superbowl. They blewout teams along the way, they were that good. They aren't the same team this year, though I'm sure the roster is very similar.

They also struggled in the home stretch of the season...bout the same time the Bears have this year. I don't really put much stock in the schedule, if a team is bad, they're usually bad regardless of their scheduling. Hence why we've played a last place schedule for the past 3-4 years.

The Eagles biggest attribute last year for winning the SB was their depth. Something I hope the Bears can bolster in the offseason.

 

[Warrior Spirit]

So in your words the weak schedule argument is irrelevant.

Ok, I see where you went wrong, friend. You believe when talk of the Bears easy schedule comes up, it is based off of the last place schedule put together from last years standings.

The reality is their weak strength of schedule, to this point, is solely based off their opponent’s record, this year, to this point. The fact all other 3 teams in their own division have a lesser winning % than they did last year plays a major role in that Weaker SOS.

 

[Sculpt]

Bears offense is 20th in the league in total yardage. Not terrible, but not too great either. Need more Allen Robinson targets deep.

That is pretty surprising. Bears certainly have had some big yardage games. How do you think we can improve the Offense?

 

[Warrior Spirit]

That is pretty surprising. Bears certainly have had some big yardage games. How do you think we can improve the Offense?

The one thing that had definitely aided the Bears offense are the turnovers and the good field position they provide. So, would see keep getting those turnovers.

I also feel Nagy can better utilize the talent of Jordan Howard. I understand you want Cohen in there a lot but for all those down on Howard, he simply does not get enough touches to be effective and even when effective as we saw in last game, Nagy goes away from him in favor of keeping Cohen in there. Cohen is great for getting in open space on short passes or what not but if I’m a defender and he’s the sole back, I’m not thinking straight run.

 

[onebud34]

Ok, I see where you went wrong, friend. You believe when talk of the Bears easy schedule comes up, it is based off of the last place schedule put together from last years standings.

The reality is their weak strength of schedule, to this point, is solely based off their opponent’s record, this year, to this point. The fact all other 3 teams in their own division have a lesser winning % than they did last year plays a major role in that Weaker SOS.

That just points out that the Bears are the best team in the division. We'll see how they do in the playoffs this year.

 

[Sculpt]

They also struggled in the home stretch of the season...bout the same time the Bears have this year. I don't really put much stock in the schedule, if a team is bad, they're usually bad regardless of their scheduling. Hence why we've played a last place schedule for the past 3-4 years.

The Eagles biggest attribute last year for winning the SB was their depth. Something I hope the Bears can bolster in the offseason.

I agree with that -- good teams scratch into the playoffs despite tough schedules, and usually makes them better prepared to make a great run in the playoffs.

Eagles did seem to have good depth. I think the Bears have good depth, and luckily we haven't had to test it much.

Along with depth, we also have youth, which directly helps that.

I like that both Nagy and Fangio are giving backups a decent amount of snaps. You see guys like Toliver, Bush, McMannis, Houston-Carson, Kwiat, Irving, Fitts, Iggy, Bellamy, Mizzel and Braun take the field. Not to mention rotating in Robertson-Harris, Bullard and Nichols. This is going to pay dividends.

I wished when some earlier games were put away, we would have seen more offensive players get snaps, like Daniel, Wims and White.

 

[Sculpt]

The one thing that had definitely aided the Bears offense are the turnovers and the good field position they provide. So, would see keep getting those turnovers.

I also feel Nagy can better utilize the talent of Jordan Howard. I understand you want Cohen in there a lot but for all those down on Howard, he simply does not get enough touches to be effective and even when effective as we saw in last game, Nagy goes away from him in favor of keeping Cohen in there. Cohen is great for getting in open space on short passes or what not but if I’m a defender and he’s the sole back, I’m not thinking straight run.

It does seem Nagy pulls away from Howard, even when he's really effective. He's got to remember the OL needs the repetition of run blocking for Howard as much as Howard needs the touches. I think Nagy needs to find a smoother transition from Howard runs and the other plays he has.

 

[Warrior Spirit]

That just points out that the Bears are the best team in the division. We'll see how they do in the playoffs this year.

It also points out the other 3 teams in their division are weak and their weakness is to the Bears advantage.

I think the Bears have a 50/50 shot in the WC game, but don’t like their chances beyond that. Id also put it at slightly less than 50/50 if they slip and don’t win the division.

 

[JD Trendleton]

That is pretty surprising. Bears certainly have had some big yardage games. How do you think we can improve the Offense?

I was surprised too, and I'm not entirely sure. I think Allen Robinson is the best offensive player and should be getting more deep targets down the field. I know he is coming off an ACL injury but he has looked good and only gotten double digit targets one time this season. He's shown he is a big time play-maker in this league when you get him the football. They have to continue to take advantage of the mismatches that Cohen presents in the passing game as well, Cohen wheel route seems like half our offense this year.

The running game is a complete disaster though. Our main guy Howard has gone for 178 rushes for 612 yards 3.4 yards a carry and is a non-threat in the passing game. Absolutely brutal, he looks slower, can't break any tackles and the line isn't doing him any favors. Cohen is 74 for 315 and a better 4.3 yards a carry, but you can't rely on a 180 lb running back to do the bulk of the running. So we are stuck with Howard, who's YPC have gotten worse each season. 5.2, 4.1, to now 3.4 YPC. So now what do you do as Nagy? Do you continue to try and pound Howard who is giving you nothing, or do you start passing the ball more down the stretch?

It's pretty big starting out 2nd and 5 or 4 compared to 2nd and 7. In the first scenario an incomplete pass and you can still run the ball on 3rd and 4-5. At 3rd and 7 or a long 6, the likelihood of running drops giving the defense better odds. In essence Jordan Howard is handicapping our offense right now, not allowing us to really open things up.

 

[Warrior Spirit]

I was surprised too, and I'm not entirely sure. I think Allen Robinson is the best offensive player and should be getting more deep targets down the field. I know he is coming off an ACL injury but he has looked good and only gotten double digit targets one time this season. He's shown he is a big time play-maker in this league when you get him the football. They have to continue to take advantage of the mismatches that Cohen presents in the passing game as well, Cohen wheel route seems like half our offense this year.

The running game is a complete disaster though. Our main guy Howard has gone for 178 rushes for 612 yards 3.4 yards a carry and is a non-threat in the passing game. Absolutely brutal, he looks slower, can't break any tackles and the line isn't doing him any favors. Cohen is 74 for 315 and a better 4.3 yards a carry, but you can't rely on a 180 lb running back to do the bulk of the running. So we are stuck with Howard, who's YPC have gotten worse each season. 5.2, 4.1, to now 3.4 YPC. So now what do you do as Nagy? Do you continue to try and pound Howard who is giving you nothing, or do you start passing the ball more down the stretch?

It's pretty big starting out 2nd and 5 or 4 compared to 2nd and 7. In the first scenario an incomplete pass and you can still run the ball on 3rd and 4-5. At 3rd and 7 or a long 6, the likelihood of running drops giving the defense better odds. In essence Jordan Howard is handicapping our offense right now, not allowing us to really open things up.

The Bears blocking got worse every year. How many RBs can you point to that maintain a 5.2 ypc year after year? Guess the Rams should have gotten rid of Gurley after his 2nd year? Saints should have dumped Ingram after his poor production his first 2 years. Why did the Chargers wait so long to declare Gordon a bust? How did McCaffrey make it to year 2? Shocking, the Texans held on to Miller after last year, huh? Don't make too much of Cohen's better 4.3 cause he has over 100 less attempts and many misdirection plays designed to get him outside and utilize his speed. 43 of his 74 attempts have been around the ends. You think it would be a good idea to send the 180 pounder up the middle more? Me neither. All but 31 of Howard's 178 run attempts are between the tackles. The Bears top run blocking O=lineman is ranked #45 by PFF. Their next best run blocker is rated #120. You can replace Howard and put that replacement behind the same line and see what ya get or get some linemen that can block. Chargers blocking was rated in bottom 7 last 2 years. Now #12 and look who showed up, their 2015 1st round draft pick.