2018 Bears - Perception does NOT equal Reality

[Rory Sparrow]

Check your reading comprehension cause I did not say teams need focus on him and use more blockers to slow him down. I, in fact, pointed to that as another false perception.

Yeah, I don't know why it came out like that in my posting. I meant the opposite, that you claimed opposing offenses aren't focused on Mack. I don't think that is the case, regardless of Mack not being occupied "by several blockers every play".

Still hear the media speak of him as being DPOY candidate despite being way down in his pass rushing productivity.

What? I just posted the numbers. And who cares about DPOY candidate talk...seems like a nebulous term anyways. And the media is correct to use it if you look at the numbers.

And, now, you boost your perception of him because he got 1 Int and 1 TD against a bumbling idiot early on. The reality is he was just a benefactor of that bumbling idiot's bumbling ways and he disappeared in that game when their gimpy starter hobbled back on to the field.

My 'perception' of Mack needed no 'boosting', as it was based on what I've seen from him in Chicago. I already posted his other numbers, which are also superior to his 2017 Raiders numbers.

My first issue would really have nothing to do with his play but rather the pay vs productivity. And send Gruden all the gift baskets you wish, another incorrect perception, cause Gruden is not the one paying players and ultimately not his call in the end. I can see why a team wouldn't want to pay such an exorbitant amount for 3 or 4 tackles and less than 1 sack per game so let's stop pretending the Bears pay that amount for some game changing phenom. Paying such an amount for that level of production just sets a team back going forward.

Wow. This is one of the dumbest "perception" comments ever. Lets compare the Raiders and Bears defenses this year.

If you want to call him the best then compare his play, not only to his own past play, but to the best of the rest.

Mack 2016 .69 sacks per game, 1.63 QB hits per game, 6.13 QB total pressures per game, .88 TFL
Best in league .97 sacks per game, 1.94 QB hits per game, 6.13 QB total pressures per game, 1.13 TFL

Mack 2017 .66 sacks per game, 1.38 QB hits per game, 4.94 QB total pressures per game, .94 TFL
Best in league 1.06 sacks per game, 2.06 QB hits per game, 5.69 QB total pressures per game, 1.75 TFL

Mack 2018 .9 sacks per game, 1.1 QB hits per game, 4.5 QB total pressures per game, .7 TFL
Best in league 1.38 sacks per game, 2.0 QB hits per game, 7.0 QB total pressures per game, 1.67 TFL

Not really sure what this is. Mack won the DPOTY in 2016...are you saying he shouldn't have, because he didn't lead the NFL in every statistical category? Was there actually an NFL player in 2016 who had a statline of .97 sacks, 1.94 QB hits, etc.? Of course not, because if one player did that, then HE would have won the DPOTY. So what is your point? That if a player doesn't lead the NFL in every statistical pass rush category, then the DPOTY award won't be given out that year?

The NFL TFL numbers are always wrong, because a few years ago they bizarrely decided to exclude sacks from TFLs, even though sacks are TFLs. That is why I included the parenthetical number for Mack's stats, which is the 'correct' TFL total.

Finally, here are Mack's projected 2018 stats...2 INTs, 2 TDs, 6 PDs, 8 FF, 3 FR, 14.5 sacks, 11 (26) TFL, 18 QB hits....yeah, what idiot media person would put forth the idea that Mack is a DPOTY candidate? How absurd.

 

[pseudonym]

Good team with a chance to be great. Need more players to develop, more consistency, still a few holes to fill.

 

[Monster]

This is a very good football team but not a great one yet. I think division and playoff hopes have inflated expectation.
I was thinking back to the beginning of the year when 9 wins would have been a great year heading in the right direction for a new system during rebuild. I have to temper my current expectation.
They look better than expected but I think anyone taking emotion out of the equation knows it’s a top ten team but not top four.
What I am excited about is the potential for the future. If it only gets better from here these are exciting times... something that’s been rare for Bears fans.

Spartan has good points... there are some obvious issues with Defense, Running Game, QB mistakes... some due to new system and personnel... all repairable.

There is always of course the holy shit they did it possibly... stranger things have happened... but keep your money in your pocket.

 

[Outlaw Josey Cutler]

The Bears would be much lower in rushing yards if not for the 363 yards that comes from their QB taking advantage of gaping holes left by overaggressive defenses. In time, they'll learn to spy him and then all you're left with is one the worst run blocking lines in the NFL.

Do you honestly think defenses haven't been spying him? I have seen him run around most LBs with spy assignments fairly easily. But there is a variation of a "delayed spy blitz" that I saw MIN run in the 2nd half that Mitch could not account for. A blitz with multiple shallow zones taking away shorter routes and S either running deep with a CB to take away the deep route or staying up for a delayed blitz. Mitch was far more uncomfortable in the pocket and could not hit any deep one-on-ones to force the defense to change that up.

Good news is this: if Mitch can develop a consistently accurate touch on deep balls, the NFL opposing defenses will have a new problem on their hands facing Bears offense.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

Spartan has good points... there are some obvious issues with Defense, Running Game, QB mistakes... some due to new system and personnel... all repairable.

I would say that relative to NFL 2018, the Bears defense probably has the fewest 'issues' in the league. Spartan's method for repairing the Bears defense is to dump Mack and use his cap space to acquire players who are more productive, because "Paying such an amount for that level of production just sets a team back going forward."

Good stuff.

 

[onebud34]

Yeah, I don't know why it came out like that in my posting. I meant the opposite, that you claimed opposing offenses aren't focused on Mack. I don't think that is the case, regardless of Mack not being occupied "by several blockers every play".



What? I just posted the numbers. And who cares about DPOY candidate talk...seems like a nebulous term anyways. And the media is correct to use it if you look at the numbers.



My 'perception' of Mack needed no 'boosting', as it was based on what I've seen from him in Chicago. I already posted his other numbers, which are also superior to his 2017 Raiders numbers.



Wow. This is one of the dumbest "perception" comments ever. Lets compare the Raiders and Bears defenses this year.




Not really sure what this is. Mack won the DPOTY in 2016...are you saying he shouldn't have, because he didn't lead the NFL in every statistical category? Was there actually an NFL player in 2016 who had a statline of .97 sacks, 1.94 QB hits, etc.? Of course not, because if one player did that, then HE would have won the DPOTY. So what is your point? That if a player doesn't lead the NFL in every statistical pass rush category, then the DPOTY award won't be given out that year?

The NFL TFL numbers are always wrong, because a few years ago they bizarrely decided to exclude sacks from TFLs, even though sacks are TFLs. That is why I included the parenthetical number for Mack's stats, which is the 'correct' TFL total.

Finally, here are Mack's projected 2018 stats...2 INTs, 2 TDs, 6 PDs, 8 FF, 3 FR, 14.5 sacks, 11 (26) TFL, 18 QB hits....yeah, what idiot media person would put forth the idea that Mack is a DPOTY candidate? How absurd.

Let’s not forget he was 1st team all-pro at both LB and DE in 2016.

So if you put his stat lines up against the LBs he’s a joke of an NFL player

 

[Monster]

I would say that relative to NFL 2018, the Bears defense probably has the fewest 'issues' in the league. Spartan's method for repairing the Bears defense is to dump Mack and use his cap space to acquire players who are more productive, because "Paying such an amount for that level of production just sets a team back going forward."

Good stuff.

Don’t agree with the Mack idea at all.
I do agree the 4th Qtr points allowed is a concern. I think Mack has made the entire D better. He’s obviously opening things up for teammates... Floyd has benefited for sure.

 

[modo]

You can say he's a future hall of Famer and beast and what not. That's all well and good. It's still only going to get you 3 or 4 tackles and less than a sack per game when you put it into perspective though. Please don't talk to me about prevent defense. Bears were beaten by 2 crap teams, not because they played prevent defense, but because their second half defense was just too weak.

If all you see are stat lines and simply make judgement from that you have no business diagnosing football with any authority.

Yes they were beaten. Turnovers played a big part.....the part you wanted to dismiss.

 

[Warrior Spirit]

Yeah, I don't know why it came out like that in my posting. I meant the opposite, that you claimed opposing offenses aren't focused on Mack. I don't think that is the case, regardless of Mack not being occupied "by several blockers every play".



What? I just posted the numbers. And who cares about DPOY candidate talk...seems like a nebulous term anyways. And the media is correct to use it if you look at the numbers.



My 'perception' of Mack needed no 'boosting', as it was based on what I've seen from him in Chicago. I already posted his other numbers, which are also superior to his 2017 Raiders numbers.



Wow. This is one of the dumbest "perception" comments ever. Lets compare the Raiders and Bears defenses this year.




Not really sure what this is. Mack won the DPOTY in 2016...are you saying he shouldn't have, because he didn't lead the NFL in every statistical category? Was there actually an NFL player in 2016 who had a statline of .97 sacks, 1.94 QB hits, etc.? Of course not, because if one player did that, then HE would have won the DPOTY. So what is your point? That if a player doesn't lead the NFL in every statistical pass rush category, then the DPOTY award won't be given out that year?

The NFL TFL numbers are always wrong, because a few years ago they bizarrely decided to exclude sacks from TFLs, even though sacks are TFLs. That is why I included the parenthetical number for Mack's stats, which is the 'correct' TFL total.

Finally, here are Mack's projected 2018 stats...2 INTs, 2 TDs, 6 PDs, 8 FF, 3 FR, 14.5 sacks, 11 (26) TFL, 18 QB hits....yeah, what idiot media person would put forth the idea that Mack is a DPOTY candidate? How absurd.

Not so used to the outpouring of love from the media for the Bears, I guess. They do have the 3rd best record in the NFC right now. Do think a couple other teams are coming on stronger and might/could surpass them. Don’t think any can contend with the top 2 who would have home field in the playoffs.


Agree with the absurdity of Mack being a DPOY candidate this year. Donald is just going nuts. Don’t agree with much else though. And, no, I didn’t say he wasn’t deserving of DPOY when he won it. He was certainly a viable candidate that year.

I never said 1 player had 1.94 qb hits and .97 sacks in 2016. Those were the best in league numbers for each category. The 1.94 qb hits belonged to Donald and the .97 sacks per game belonged to Beasley.

I’m not an insensitive man. I do understand why it hurts you so as I crush all your perceptions with a heavy dose of reality and never expected you to let go of your false perceptions easily. And, yeah, when you put in the sole int and sole td as if it’s meaningful when comparing to others, you’re trying to boost the perception.

At one point, someone else in this thread, said they could name 2 games that Mack won. No response from him though when asked which 2.
I can point to other defenders sealing Victories but have not seen it from Mack thus far. Have you?

What the Raiders are now, without Mack, is irrelevant as they also sucked for the majority of the time he was there anyway and their defense was never a world beater with him, in reality. There is no denying his qb pressures are way down and, really, isn’t that what an edge rusher is all about? And I have no use for projected stats, they simply aren’t real.

 

[Warrior Spirit]

If all you see are stat lines and simply make judgement from that you have no business diagnosing football with any authority.

Yes they were beaten. Turnovers played a big part.....the part you wanted to dismiss.

Stats are real. Perceptions are not. What’s the player really giving you or are you basing it off of solely your perception of him making other players better. In fact, I think the Bears have a lot of talent on defense and that should just help Mack tear it up more than he has been to this point.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

I never said 1 player had 1.94 qb hits and .97 sacks in 2016. Those were the best in league numbers for each category. The 1.94 qb hits belonged to Donald and the .97 sacks per game belonged to Beasley.

Obviously. I still don't understand the relevance. In the last three years, Khalil Mack has never had a season where he led the league in every defensive statistical category. Got it!

I’m not an insensitive man. I do understand why it hurts you so as I crush all your perceptions with a heavy dose of reality and never expected you to let go of your false perceptions easily. And, yeah, when you put in the sole int and sole td as if it’s meaningful when comparing to others, you’re trying to boost the perception.

No, you said that Mack's productivity has been way down this year. It hasn't. Not sure what you are misunderstanding.

What the Raiders are now, without Mack, is irrelevant as they also sucked for the majority of the time he was there anyway

Funny how you claim the Raiders are better off by not paying Mack, yet we can't judge the Raiders without Mack because it's "irrelevant".

And I have no use for projected stats, they simply aren’t real.

Well, its kind of dumb to say that Mack's productivity is way down in 2018 when compared to the previous two seasons, because the previous two seasons were complete seasons and 2018 is a partial season thus far.

 

[onebud34]

Stats are real. Perceptions are not. What’s the player really giving you or are you basing it off of solely your perception of him making other players better. In fact, I think the Bears have a lot of talent on defense and that should just help Mack tear it up more than he has been to this point.

That makes little sense.

The Bears have improved in literally every defensive category compared to last year.

 

[onebud34]

If all you see are stat lines and simply make judgement from that you have no business diagnosing football with any authority.

Yes they were beaten. Turnovers played a big part.....the part you wanted to dismiss.

The Bears most likely win the game if Daniel doesn't throw a pick 6 to start the game.

 

[Warrior Spirit]

Obviously. I still don't understand the relevance. In the last three years, Khalil Mack has never had a season where he led the league in every defensive statistical category. Got it!




No, you said that Mack's productivity has been way down this year. It hasn't. Not sure what you are misunderstanding.




Funny how you claim the Raiders are better off by not paying Mack, yet we can't judge the Raiders without Mack because it's "irrelevant".




Well, its kind of dumb to say that Mack's productivity is way down in 2018 when compared to the previous two seasons, because the previous two seasons were complete seasons and 2018 is a partial season thus far.

The relevance is that the mighty Mack isn’t as mighty as perceived and nothing points to him being any better than his other peers who also play at a high level.

Raiders aren’t better off right now cause they don’t really care about winning right now. Not why Gruden got a 10 year contract. They are rebuilding it and should be vastly better off with the compensation they got from the Mack trade.

Yes, Mack’s overall QB pressures are down from 6 per game in DPOY season to 4.5 per game with the Bears. And, no, it is not dumb to compare per game numbers even if the season isn’t over.

Noticed you couldn’t point to any games Mack won for the Bears neither. Funny, huh?

 

[onebud34]

The relevance is that the mighty Mack isn’t as mighty as perceived and nothing points to him being any better than his other peers who also play at a high level.

Raiders aren’t better off right now cause they don’t really care about winning right now. Not why Gruden got a 10 year contract. They are rebuilding it and should be vastly better off with the compensation they got from the Mack trade.

Yes, Mack’s overall QB pressures are down from 6 per game in DPOY season to 4.5 per game with the Bears. And, no, it is not dumb to compare per game numbers even if the season isn’t over.

Noticed you couldn’t point to any games Mack won for the Bears neither. Funny, huh?

Not sure what point you're trying to make. Mack is the best player on arguably the best D in the NFL.

 

[Warrior Spirit]

That makes little sense.

The Bears have improved in literally every defensive category compared to last year.

Wrong! Check again.

Fact is, the Bears D gives up significantly more 2nd half points than they did last year. Last year they ranked #1 in fewest points allowed in the 2nd half. Right now, they rank # 24. Huge drop wouldn’t you say?

 

[MDB111™]

the force is strong with this thread.

 

[onebud34]

Wrong! Check again.

Fact is, the Bears D gives up significantly more 2nd half points than they did last year. Last year they ranked #1 in fewest points allowed in the 2nd half. Right now, they rank # 24. Huge drop wouldn’t you say?

Not really considering the game situations. When you give up 0 points in the first half and 20 in the second and still win by 14 that tends to skew the numbers, yes?

 

[onebud34]

the force is strong with this thread.

A cunting we will go...

 

[Warrior Spirit]

Not really considering the game situations. When you give up 0 points in the first half and 20 in the second and still win by 14 that tends to skew the numbers, yes?

Not really? No, Really they give up a lot of 2nd half points. And you don’t really believe they give up 0 in the first half. The knock on Mack, while in Oakland, was he often does not show up in the 2nd half. Looks like he’s got the whole Bears D following that same mentality of slacking in the 2nd half. I know you people perceive giving up all these 2nd half points is no big deal but it is and will lead to the Bears downfall.