2018 Bears - Perception does NOT equal Reality

[Outlaw Josey Cutler]

They also struggled in the home stretch of the season...bout the same time the Bears have this year. I don't really put much stock in the schedule, if a team is bad, they're usually bad regardless of their scheduling. Hence why we've played a last place schedule for the past 3-4 years.

The Eagles biggest attribute last year for winning the SB was their depth. Something I hope the Bears can bolster in the offseason.

Not really. They were healthy all year and riding Wentz' MVP year. When he went down in LA after leading the Eagles to a thrilling win to the ACL injury, Foles came in ... and actually stunk. Odds for PHILLY winning it all went south fast. Pederson changed the game plan during the last few games and worked on getting all the offensive players on page for a new set of offensive schemes based on Chip's offense that Foles thrived under for the playoffs. It barely worked vs. ATL and finally was hitting on all cylinders vs. MIN and just in time as they only punted once vs. NE in Super Bowl.

Anyway, the main reason PHI won last year was MVP-level QB play with health at most all positions especially defense and when Wentz went down, Pederson (or Reich or whomever as legends are changing over here) installed an emergency playoff offense that barely beat ATL and toasted MIN and NE for the Lombardi.

 

[Outlaw Josey Cutler]

I disagree with most of Spartan's OP re: schedule and Mack's importance to the defense which Rory nailed on the head imo in that I WISH Mack was having a down year in reality and not just reflected in stats; it would indicate that the rest of the defense is chugging along at a high level which is a perception that does not match reality as I see it.

But I will always make a post defending a minority opinion vs. the majority. All of you posters who emotionally knee-jerk "Mods, why do we allow trolls like Spartan" are morally and intellectually inferior as you are advocating for censorship over honest debate. All of you who cry for that suck.

So shout-out to the mods for being great at allowing this forum to be free where ideas can be workshopped and played with and rejected or accepted as we all see fit individually.

 

[Bearly]

Not really. They were healthy all year and riding Wentz' MVP year. When he went down in LA after leading the Eagles to a thrilling win to the ACL injury, Foles came in ... and actually stunk. Odds for PHILLY winning it all went south fast. Pederson changed the game plan during the last few games and worked on getting all the offensive players on page for a new set of offensive schemes based on Chip's offense that Foles thrived under for the playoffs. It barely worked vs. ATL and finally was hitting on all cylinders vs. MIN and just in time as they only punted once vs. NE in Super Bowl.

Anyway, the main reason PHI won last year was MVP-level QB play with health at most all positions especially defense and when Wentz went down, Pederson (or Reich or whomever as legends are changing over here) installed an emergency playoff offense that barely beat ATL and toasted MIN and NE for the Lombardi.

Foles caught his pass and Brady dropped his. Basically, PHilly won because their QB is a better WR, LOL.

 

[Outlaw Josey Cutler]

Foles caught his pass and Brady dropped his. Basically, PHilly won because their QB is a better WR, LOL.

Well leaving out Brady's dropped pass was for a mere first down while Foles caught his for a TD, um ok.

Also vs. NE, Foles went 28 - 43 373 yards 3 TD 0 INT

97.5 passer rating with clean pocket
95.0 passer rating under pressure from D line
131.0 passer rating vs. extra blitz

He wasn't MVP because he caught a pass that Brady didn't. I also don't think he was MVP because he is secretly good but that Pederson found a scheme he could run in the playoffs with Foles that no DC figured out in time


EDIT: inserting obligatory smug LOL. sigh

 

[Rory Sparrow]

It was never about what I expected from the Bears or how I perceived the season overall. It was about the build up through the media, fans and ccs twits and that perception they were putting out there. It was inaccurate and thus I give the reality of it all.

I guess I'm not sure what 'perception' you are referring to when you mention media, CCS, etc. To me, the reality is the Bears' current place in the standings. 3rd in the NFC behind the Rams and Saints...I think that is about right. So you are confusing me on two points...what is the "perception"? What is the "reality"? Which part is "unequal"?

I did not say anything so negative about Mack. Just stated the facts and provided the stats as proof of his productivity being way down from both his DPOY year and his last year with Oakland.

I thought your whole "winning DPOY twice" angle in regards to Mack as somewhat absurd, as there have been several great defensive players in NFL history who don't have multiple DPOY award. You point to his drop in productivity and at the same time claim that opposing offenses focused on slowing Mack down. Your use of statistics is interesting...

2017 Mack per game averages = 0.0 INT, 0.0 TD, 0.18 PD, 0.06 FF, 0.06 FR, 0.66 SACK, 0.94 (1.6) TFL, 1.375 QB HITS
2018 Mack per game averages = 0.1 INT, 0.1 TD, 0.4 PD, 0.5 FF, 0.2 FR, 0.9 SACK, 0.7 (1.6) TFL, 1.1 QB HITS

I think anyone would take Mack's 2018 season increase in turnovers and sacks and accept a slight dip in QB hits over his 2017 season. To claim that Mack's productivity is "way down" from his last year in Oakland is the opposite of reality (perception?).

 

[Monster]

I see a lot of opinions that Jordan needs more carries to get going but don’t agree... he is 7th in attempts. He is getting the ball more than most, but those plays rarely produce.

 

[onebud34]

Not really. They were healthy all year and riding Wentz' MVP year. When he went down in LA after leading the Eagles to a thrilling win to the ACL injury, Foles came in ... and actually stunk. Odds for PHILLY winning it all went south fast. Pederson changed the game plan during the last few games and worked on getting all the offensive players on page for a new set of offensive schemes based on Chip's offense that Foles thrived under for the playoffs. It barely worked vs. ATL and finally was hitting on all cylinders vs. MIN and just in time as they only punted once vs. NE in Super Bowl.

Anyway, the main reason PHI won last year was MVP-level QB play with health at most all positions especially defense and when Wentz went down, Pederson (or Reich or whomever as legends are changing over here) installed an emergency playoff offense that barely beat ATL and toasted MIN and NE for the Lombardi.

They had their fair share of injuries...Peters, Hicks, Sproles & eventually Wentz. But that's not what I was alluding to in reference to their depth. A good majority of the rotation on the D-line could start for teams. Plus we plucked Burton who was a backup TE till this year. Also they went and traded for Ajayi. Foles is still a pretty decent QB regardless of how he performed earlier in this year.

They literally out-depth'd every team in the league last year, it showed in the playoffs.

 

[Sculpt]

I see a lot of opinions that Jordan needs more carries to get going but don’t agree... he is 7th in attempts. He is getting the ball more than most, but those plays rarely produce.

You make a good point. He's 8th in atts right now 3.4YPC . About the same number of atts as Hunt who has 4.6YPC.

Just how many Howard atts does it take to get better YPC? It depends.

Depends on what you're trying to accomplish. If you're trying to get to a 3rd and 5, then Howard's 3.4 is usually getting it done.

If you're in the late 3rd or 4th qtr, you may be trying to wearout the Defense. As that implies, it requires expending the muscle energy and strength of the defenders, which requires repetition. You'd like instant success, and that happens sometimes, but it may take a slow trend towards better YPC. And when it works it's low risk of turnover and consumes a lot of game time.

Why the defenders get more tired than the offense, I don't know, but I'm sure it has to do with personnel too. Howard has the technique, strength, vision/use of blockers, falling forward, to do this 4th qtr weardown as good as any RB. It's an asset to take advantage of through use.

 

[JD Trendleton]

You make a good point. He's 8th in atts right now 3.4YPC . About the same number of atts as Hunt who has 4.6YPC.

Just how many Howard atts does it take to get better YPC? It depends.

Depends on what you're trying to accomplish. If you're trying to get to a 3rd and 5, then Howard's 3.4 is usually getting it done.

If you're in the late 3rd or 4th qtr, you may be trying to wearout the Defense. As that implies, it requires expending the muscle energy and strength of the defenders, which requires repetition. You'd like instant success, and that happens sometimes, but it may take a slow trend towards better YPC. And when it works it's low risk of turnover and consumes a lot of game time.

Why the defenders get more tired than the offense, I don't know, but I'm sure it has to do with personnel too. Howard has the technique, strength, vision/use of blockers, falling forward, to do this 4th qtr weardown as good as any RB. It's an asset to take advantage of through use.

Jordan Howard is literally one of the worst backs in the league this year. The only worse starting back with YPC is Lesean Mccoy and Blount. 3.4 YPC in today's NFL is putrid any way you slice it. Whether that's the O-line or Howard, it's not good.

 

[modo]

This is your perception. Mack has had better seasons and that is the reality. He has a mighty rep, no doubt, but it doesn't mean he is any less prone to having lesser years than any other player and I think the general perception of him puts him way above his peers and I just don't see that to be the case.

Bears have done extremely well in turnovers and their offense has taken advantage of the good field position. However, the defensive points put up and all those turnovers usually aren't sustainable so you can't keep relying solely on them.

I haven't stated how the season will unfold. I stated how it is more likely to unfold after the Giants loss.

I'm not sure what you mean my perception. If you mean I observed these things and based on historical facts about the NFL, I came up with a logical and lucid conclusion, then yes.

Because Mack has had better statistical seasons doesn't mean anything. He is a future Hall of Fame player having a really good year. I am very satisfied with that. I don't think anyone is saying he is way above his peers. I think most people are saying he is one of the best defenders in the league and he is having a very good year. Nothing wrong with that.

I think you don't apply game flow to the situation. If the Bears score defensively and have the lead late, they aren't going to go balls to the wall on offense if they don't need to. They go more ball control. If the Bears were not scoring defensively do you think they would play prevent and rely more on ball control? Your logic is flawed based on a bad understanding or application of game flow and situational football.

Again, you don't know any likelyhood of a scenario. In fact, all of the statistical analysis done by computers completely disagrees with you. So again you math, if you applied any, is wrong, just like your version of a likely scenario.

 

[Warrior Spirit]

I guess I'm not sure what 'perception' you are referring to when you mention media, CCS, etc. To me, the reality is the Bears' current place in the standings. 3rd in the NFC behind the Rams and Saints...I think that is about right. So you are confusing me on two points...what is the "perception"? What is the "reality"? Which part is "unequal"?

There's really not a lot of very good teams in the league, a handful really, and only 2 in the NFC. Parity rules and as such, some others will be given false hype by the media and certainly by their own fans. When you sift through the pile of mediocrity, you see the only team the Bears have beaten with a winning record is one who's been a disappointment themselves and is currently only a half game over .500. Have the Monsters of the Midway returned or have all other teams in their division gone south? All 3 have done much worse this year than last year. The perception is the Bears are a top team and I enjoy the fact they sit atop all the other mediocre NFC teams now too but the reality is they don't really pose a threat to the best and their HC is not only not the genius he has been perceived to be but a liability going forward. And he might just have set them up for a mighty fall down the stretch.

I thought your whole "winning DPOY twice" angle in regards to Mack as somewhat absurd, as there have been several great defensive players in NFL history who don't have multiple DPOY award. You point to his drop in productivity and at the same time claim that opposing offenses focused on slowing Mack down. Your use of statistics is interesting...

2017 Mack per game averages = 0.0 INT, 0.0 TD, 0.18 PD, 0.06 FF, 0.06 FR, 0.66 SACK, 0.94 (1.6) TFL, 1.375 QB HITS
2018 Mack per game averages = 0.1 INT, 0.1 TD, 0.4 PD, 0.5 FF, 0.2 FR, 0.9 SACK, 0.7 (1.6) TFL, 1.1 QB HITS

I think anyone would take Mack's 2018 season increase in turnovers and sacks and accept a slight dip in QB hits over his 2017 season. To claim that Mack's productivity is "way down" from his last year in Oakland is the opposite of reality (perception?).

Check your reading comprehension cause I did not say teams need focus on him and use more blockers to slow him down. I, in fact, pointed to that as another false perception. There are plenty of times he gets 1 blocker. There's plenty of times when, like many other edge rushers, he'll get more. Hell, there's times he gets none. Point with DPOY was while viewed as DPOY 1 year, the perception gives him that elite level in ensuing years even when his current play does not. Still hear the media speak of him as being DPOY candidate despite being way down in his pass rushing productivity. And, now, you boost your perception of him because he got 1 Int and 1 TD against a bumbling idiot early on. The reality is he was just a benefactor of that bumbling idiot's bumbling ways and he disappeared in that game when their gimpy starter hobbled back on to the field.

Understand, I'm not saying Mack isn't a good player or very good at what he does. My first issue would really have nothing to do with his play but rather the pay vs productivity. And send Gruden all the gift baskets you wish, another incorrect perception, cause Gruden is not the one paying players and ultimately not his call in the end. I can see why a team wouldn't want to pay such an exorbitant amount for 3 or 4 tackles and less than 1 sack per game so let's stop pretending the Bears pay that amount for some game changing phenom. Paying such an amount for that level of production just sets a team back going forward. If you want to call him the best then compare his play, not only to his own past play, but to the best of the rest.

Mack 2016 .69 sacks per game, 1.63 QB hits per game, 6.13 QB total pressures per game, .88 TFL
Best in league .97 sacks per game, 1.94 QB hits per game, 6.13 QB total pressures per game, 1.13 TFL

Mack 2017 .66 sacks per game, 1.38 QB hits per game, 4.94 QB total pressures per game, .94 TFL
Best in league 1.06 sacks per game, 2.06 QB hits per game, 5.69 QB total pressures per game, 1.75 TFL

Mack 2018 .9 sacks per game, 1.1 QB hits per game, 4.5 QB total pressures per game, .7 TFL
Best in league 1.38 sacks per game, 2.0 QB hits per game, 7.0 QB total pressures per game, 1.67 TFL

 

[onebud34]

I think you don't apply game flow to the situation. If the Bears score defensively and have the lead late, they aren't going to go balls to the wall on offense if they don't need to. They go more ball control. If the Bears were not scoring defensively do you think they would play prevent and rely more on ball control? Your logic is flawed based on a bad understanding or application of game flow and situational football.

This...

The stats even show this

 

[onebud34]

There's really not a lot of very good teams in the league, a handful really, and only 2 in the NFC. Parity rules and as such, some others will be given false hype by the media and certainly by their own fans. When you sift through the pile of mediocrity, you see the only team the Bears have beaten with a winning record is one who's been a disappointment themselves and is currently only a half game over .500. Have the Monsters of the Midway returned or have all other teams in their division gone south? All 3 have done much worse this year than last year. The perception is the Bears are a top team and I enjoy the fact they sit atop all the other mediocre NFC teams now too but the reality is they don't really pose a threat to the best and their HC is not only not the genius he has been perceived to be but a liability going forward. And he might just have set them up for a mighty fall down the stretch.


Check your reading comprehension cause I did not say teams need focus on him and use more blockers to slow him down. I, in fact, pointed to that as another false perception. There are plenty of times he gets 1 blocker. There's plenty of times when, like many other edge rushers, he'll get more. Hell, there's times he gets none. Point with DPOY was while viewed as DPOY 1 year, the perception gives him that elite level in ensuing years even when his current play does not. Still hear the media speak of him as being DPOY candidate despite being way down in his pass rushing productivity. And, now, you boost your perception of him because he got 1 Int and 1 TD against a bumbling idiot early on. The reality is he was just a benefactor of that bumbling idiot's bumbling ways and he disappeared in that game when their gimpy starter hobbled back on to the field.

Understand, I'm not saying Mack isn't a good player or very good at what he does. My first issue would really have nothing to do with his play but rather the pay vs productivity. And send Gruden all the gift baskets you wish, another incorrect perception, cause Gruden is not the one paying players and ultimately not his call in the end. I can see why a team wouldn't want to pay such an exorbitant amount for 3 or 4 tackles and less than 1 sack per game so let's stop pretending the Bears pay that amount for some game changing phenom. Paying such an amount for that level of production just sets a team back going forward. If you want to call him the best then compare his play, not only to his own past play, but to the best of the rest.

Mack 2016 .69 sacks per game, 1.63 QB hits per game, 6.13 QB total pressures per game, .88 TFL
Best in league .97 sacks per game, 1.94 QB hits per game, 6.13 QB total pressures per game, 1.13 TFL

Mack 2017 .66 sacks per game, 1.38 QB hits per game, 4.94 QB total pressures per game, .94 TFL
Best in league 1.06 sacks per game, 2.06 QB hits per game, 5.69 QB total pressures per game, 1.75 TFL

Mack 2018 .9 sacks per game, 1.1 QB hits per game, 4.5 QB total pressures per game, .7 TFL
Best in league 1.38 sacks per game, 2.0 QB hits per game, 7.0 QB total pressures per game, 1.67 TFL

I don't think Seattle is a disappointment

 

[Warrior Spirit]

I'm not sure what you mean my perception. If you mean I observed these things and based on historical facts about the NFL, I came up with a logical and lucid conclusion, then yes.

Because Mack has had better statistical seasons doesn't mean anything. He is a future Hall of Fame player having a really good year. I am very satisfied with that. I don't think anyone is saying he is way above his peers. I think most people are saying he is one of the best defenders in the league and he is having a very good year. Nothing wrong with that.

I think you don't apply game flow to the situation. If the Bears score defensively and have the lead late, they aren't going to go balls to the wall on offense if they don't need to. They go more ball control. If the Bears were not scoring defensively do you think they would play prevent and rely more on ball control? Your logic is flawed based on a bad understanding or application of game flow and situational football.

Again, you don't know any likelyhood of a scenario. In fact, all of the statistical analysis done by computers completely disagrees with you. So again you math, if you applied any, is wrong, just like your version of a likely scenario.

You can say he's a future hall of Famer and beast and what not. That's all well and good. It's still only going to get you 3 or 4 tackles and less than a sack per game when you put it into perspective though. Please don't talk to me about prevent defense. Bears were beaten by 2 crap teams, not because they played prevent defense, but because their second half defense was just too weak.

 

[Warrior Spirit]

I don't think Seattle is a disappointment

You got me there. Forgot them while thinking more about the Vikes. They have picked up their play. At this time of year, you also look at teams who have gained momentum from where they were earlier. Think Seattle and Dallas are the best 2 examples of that in the NFC.

 

[Warrior Spirit]

Jordan Howard is literally one of the worst backs in the league this year. The only worse starting back with YPC is Lesean Mccoy and Blount. 3.4 YPC in today's NFL is putrid any way you slice it. Whether that's the O-line or Howard, it's not good.

All those other backs I mentioned had seasons with that type average too and their teams would have been insane to get rid of them. Backs need some kind of blocking and also the chance to get into a rhythm. Bears run blocking among the worst in the league and the play calling and alternating with Cohen in the backfield doesn't give him time to get going and even when he did get going in Jersey, Nagy inexplicably shut him down.

 

[Sculpt]

I was surprised too, and I'm not entirely sure. I think Allen Robinson is the best offensive player and should be getting more deep targets down the field. I know he is coming off an ACL injury but he has looked good and only gotten double digit targets one time this season. He's shown he is a big time play-maker in this league when you get him the football. They have to continue to take advantage of the mismatches that Cohen presents in the passing game as well, Cohen wheel route seems like half our offense this year.

The running game is a complete disaster though. Our main guy Howard has gone for 178 rushes for 612 yards 3.4 yards a carry and is a non-threat in the passing game. Absolutely brutal, he looks slower, can't break any tackles and the line isn't doing him any favors. Cohen is 74 for 315 and a better 4.3 yards a carry, but you can't rely on a 180 lb running back to do the bulk of the running. So we are stuck with Howard, who's YPC have gotten worse each season. 5.2, 4.1, to now 3.4 YPC. So now what do you do as Nagy? Do you continue to try and pound Howard who is giving you nothing, or do you start passing the ball more down the stretch?

It's pretty big starting out 2nd and 5 or 4 compared to 2nd and 7. In the first scenario an incomplete pass and you can still run the ball on 3rd and 4-5. At 3rd and 7 or a long 6, the likelihood of running drops giving the defense better odds. In essence Jordan Howard is handicapping our offense right now, not allowing us to really open things up.

Yep, Robinson needs to get more targets. Sure he's getting the best CB, but he's that good, and they can work more Pass Interferences too.

Bears can keep exploiting Cohen in the pass game as long as the QB keeps spreading it around to Robinson, Gabe and Burton.

Bears are a respectable 16th in Total Rushing Yards, which is obviously more diverse than just Howard. They're spreading the rock around in rushing too (Cohen, Gab, Mizzel, Burton, Miller, Trub), and Nagy should continue that. The more Nagy can mix Howard rushes into the blend of offensive looks the better. It helps that Howard is blocking well. Throw Howard more passes.

Howard is not giving you nothing. If Bears want 3rd and 5, 3.4YPC can give you that. And Howard strung together some nice power rushes in the late 3rd and early 4th qtr last game; not sure why Nagy abandoned them.

But yes, lately on about half of Howards rushes he seems to have worse balance (shoe string tackles), less powerful, and slower. But other times he seems strong. But the OL is getting stonewalled more often this year than last. I think they can both play better.

 

[Warrior Spirit]

Yep, Robinson needs to get more targets. Sure he's getting the best CB, but he's that good, and they can work more Pass Interferences too.

Bears can keep exploiting Cohen in the pass game as long as the QB keeps spreading it around to Robinson, Gabe and Burton.

Bears are a respectable 16th in Total Rushing Yards, which is obviously more diverse than just Howard. They're spreading the rock around in rushing too (Cohen, Gab, Mizzel, Burton, Miller, Trub), and Nagy should continue that. The more Nagy can mix Howard rushes into the blend of offensive looks the better. It helps that Howard is blocking well. Throw Howard more passes.

Howard is not giving you nothing. If Bears want 3rd and 5, 3.4YPC can give you that. And Howard strung together some nice power rushes in the late 3rd and early 4th qtr last game; not sure why Nagy abandoned them.

But yes, lately on about half of Howards rushes he seems to have worse balance (shoe string tackles), less powerful, and slower. But other times he seems strong. But the OL is getting stonewalled more often this year than last. I think they can both play better.

The Bears would be much lower in rushing yards if not for the 363 yards that comes from their QB taking advantage of gaping holes left by overaggressive defenses. In time, they'll learn to spy him and then all you're left with is one the worst run blocking lines in the NFL.

 

[Monster]

The Bears would be much lower in rushing yards if not for the 363 yards that comes from their QB taking advantage of gaping holes left by overaggressive defenses. In time, they'll learn to spy him and then all you're left with is one the worst run blocking lines in the NFL.

This is could be very true...

 

[Sculpt]

The Bears would be much lower in rushing yards if not for the 363 yards that comes from their QB taking advantage of gaping holes left by overaggressive defenses. In time, they'll learn to spy him and then all you're left with is one the worst run blocking lines in the NFL.

I agree, they have to commit the OL to rushing more, if they can do it and still win the game. Daniels and Witzmann need more work at it.

They have Shaheen back, and I've seen FB Burton back there too. I think they can figure something out. Nagy's working on disguising it...