2018 Hug watch thread..

[anotheridiot]

In fairness, when Theo got Q, it was more than just his top 10-15 dominance among starting pitchers. It was his control and extremely cheap dollars that required such a high offer to acquire a guy like Q.

I dont think so, I think he was forced to pay extra to trade with the cross town team. I know its water under the bridge, but you look at three that could have landed Archer gone for (Torres) nothing, and an underachiever.

 

[CSF77]

Kintzler due in for tonites game, gotta figure Chatwood, Dunsing and Wilson were the first three on waivers this morning. Hoping they can strike a deal quick.

Doesn’t guarantee they get picked.

Did they drop anyone off the 25 yet?

 

[CubsFaninMN]

In re turning CJ into a starter -- have you ever looked at how the guy is put together physically? He has almost no muscle on him. He only achieves the speed on his pitches that he does through his extremely long motion-arm, with those ridiculously over-long arms and legs. (Yeah, I know, you have to sort of really understand physics and mathematics to understand this. If you don't get it, ask a local 13-year-old, he or she will likely be able to explain it to you... )

In any event, Maddon has stated on a lot of occasions that they will always handle CJ very carefully, and only extremely rarely allow him to pitch on consecutive days, or to more than about 5 batters in a single game. That's because, with such little actual muscle mass on his limbs, if he damages arm or leg muscles, he's likely out for the season, if not for the rest of his career.

And you want to turn him into a starter? To do so, you would have to trade him to a team managed by someone other than Joe Maddon, because even if CJ started, I don't think he'd pitch past the second inning on any team Joe is managing. Because Joe won't risk a guy's career the way other managers around the league might.

Just sayin'...

 

[CSF77]

In re turning CJ into a starter -- have you ever looked at how the guy is put together physically? He has almost no muscle on him. He only achieves the speed on his pitches that he does through his extremely long motion-arm, with those ridiculously over-long arms and legs. (Yeah, I know, you have to sort of really understand physics and mathematics to understand this. If you don't get it, ask a local 13-year-old, he or she will likely be able to explain it to you... )

In any event, Maddon has stated on a lot of occasions that they will always handle CJ very carefully, and only extremely rarely allow him to pitch on consecutive days, or to more than about 5 batters in a single game. That's because, with such little actual muscle mass on his limbs, if he damages arm or leg muscles, he's likely out for the season, if not for the rest of his career.

And you want to turn him into a starter? To do so, you would have to trade him to a team managed by someone other than Joe Maddon, because even if CJ started, I don't think he'd pitch past the second inning on any team Joe is managing. Because Joe won't risk a guy's career the way other managers around the league might.

Just sayin'...

I remember a skinny BP pitcher on the Dodgers back in the early 90’s. What was his name again?

 

[CubsFaninMN]

Doesn’t guarantee they get picked.

Did they drop anyone off the 25 yet?

As of yet, nope. Not according to the Cubs website.

And when someone goes, I almost guarantee you it will be Rosario, as he's the one with options to be sent down to Iowa. Duensing, Wilson and Chatwood can't just be sent down. You have to DFA them and then can only keep them in your system if they clear waivers.

The real interesting call is what will the club do when they activate Morrow? One of our current 13 pitchers on the 25-man will have to get DFA'ed, I can't see any way around it. The real question is, who gets DFA'ed when Morrow comes back in the next week or so?

BTW, Wilson, for all everyone is upset at him from last year, has a mid-3's ERA and a pretty decent BB/K ratio this year. In other words, yeah, he's been spotty in pressure situations, but has only seen pressure situations this year. If they had wanted to get rid of Wilson, the club would have done so before 3pm yesterday and gotten something back for him. So, he ain't a-goin' nowhere, I don't believe. And with the rather larger amount the team would have to pay for Chatwood vs. Duensing after being released, I'd guess Duensing will be the guy who gets cut loose when Morrow comes back. This has one less-than-desirable impact, though -- it leaves us with a heck of a lot of LH starting pitching, and not a whole lot of LH 'pen.

I like Kintzler, but I would rather have seen the Cubs get a lefty closer type to supplement their righty closer. Two righty closers means we don't have the best ability to shut down another club in the 9th. Hmmm... the Yankees have the same issue in reverse, maybe we can engineer a trade, Morrow for Chapman or Kintzler for Britton?

 

[beckdawg]

Really has nothing to do with playing for the cubs, has to do with the return we could have gotten. Sure, the belief was there was absolutely no way the cubs win the world series without Chapman, but to give up the top prospect for a rental and not have used him for a long term answer. Then instead of just giving up one really good prospect for Quintana, you give up 2, and one will be the starter from the system we have not had since Z, eventually Shark. Its not donning the uniform and performing here, its realizing their value in deals.

Now theo is proud of himself for still having 12 of his 15 top prospects. That is one way to say it, the other way is his top 15 now are in the top 400 of baseball and nobody is left to get the big name.

Ok but who would have they got instead? You can throw that out there but unless you're talking about concrete trade examples it's largely pointless to speculate. Maybe they could have had Sonny Gray instead. How's that worked out? Maybe they could have had Archer this deadline. Problem with that is they needed a starter last year so if not Q you're still trading for someone. Off the top of my head I don't remember who else was moved on the lower levels of trades but i don't recall anyone else being that worth while. And the thing is, last year you had 0 guarantee Archer would move this year. I mean how long was he on the trading block?

Fact of the matter is if Q pitches like he did the couple years prior to coming to the cubs this isn't even a debate. It's only bad because he's disappointed. But at least with him he has 2.5 more years to figure things out. After 2 years EVERYONE threw Heyward off the bus. I was one of the few still sticking up for him in April telling people I thought this year was different. Obviously that has played out well. With Q, he just seems to be missing his command a bit which is odd given his command used to be so good. I'm not a pitching coach so I can't tell you why it's happening but seems to me that is something that you can eventually figure out.

 

[CubsFaninMN]

I remember a skinny BP pitcher on the Dodgers back in the early 90’s. What was his name again?

That was a quarter of a century ago, when starting pitchers were tasked to throw 180+ pitches a game and expected to complete at least half of their starts, and any team that thought it best to keep their starters under 100 pitches an outing would be accused of mollycoddling a rotation full of wimps. And in that era, a lot of starters blew out early and never made it to age 28 in the big leagues.

We're comparing apples and oranges, in comparing how pitchers were treated, and constrained, 25 years ago vs. the 21st century game...

 

[Parade_Rain]

In re turning CJ into a starter -- have you ever looked at how the guy is put together physically? He has almost no muscle on him. He only achieves the speed on his pitches that he does through his extremely long motion-arm, with those ridiculously over-long arms and legs. (Yeah, I know, you have to sort of really understand physics and mathematics to understand this. If you don't get it, ask a local 13-year-old, he or she will likely be able to explain it to you... )

In any event, Maddon has stated on a lot of occasions that they will always handle CJ very carefully, and only extremely rarely allow him to pitch on consecutive days, or to more than about 5 batters in a single game. That's because, with such little actual muscle mass on his limbs, if he damages arm or leg muscles, he's likely out for the season, if not for the rest of his career.

And you want to turn him into a starter? To do so, you would have to trade him to a team managed by someone other than Joe Maddon, because even if CJ started, I don't think he'd pitch past the second inning on any team Joe is managing. Because Joe won't risk a guy's career the way other managers around the league might.

Just sayin'...

Randy Johnson says "hello".

 

[CSF77]

Any player under contract may be placed on waivers ("waived") at any time. After MLB's July 31st at 4 pm trade deadline and through to the end of the season, a team must place a player on waivers if that player is to be traded.

 

[CSF77]

From what I’ve read the deadline only affects trades. It doesn’t limit promotions and demotions of controlled players. Options are not affected

I think that they have to put through if the goal is DFA like if they wanted to DFA Duesing. They would have to put him in wavers. Wavers exist all year long but it is a option. After the deadline it is required.

 

[beckdawg]

From what I’ve read the deadline only affects trades. It doesn’t limit promotions and demotions of controlled players. Options are not affected

I think that they have to put through if the goal is DFA like if they wanted to DFA Duesing. They would have to put him in wavers. Wavers exist all year long but it is a option. After the deadline it is required.

More accurately it only effects players on the 40 man roster with a major league contract. For example, in theory you could trade your top 5 prospects assuming they aren't on a 40 man roster for another teams top 5 prospects with no issues. More realistically you may still see some teams trade prospects for IFA money.

 

[CubsFaninMN]

Randy Johnson says "hello".

Oh, I get it. And Randy Johnson might even be allowed to develop into a starter on some clubs these days. But not all clubs, due to his physical build at, say, age 21. And certainly not with this Cubs organization, if the way they've treated CJ is any indication.

I'm just saying it's a different game now, as far as how pitchers are used. And certain physical types are still being pigeonholed into specific roles when it comes to pitchers. (Yeah, OK, that's always happened, but it's gotten harder for guys who have starter-level talent to break out of the reliever/starter box when they're as, um, attenuated as CJ is.)

Also, please recall CJ has been in pro ball for, what 11 or 12 years now? A couple of different systems have had a ton of opportunities to explore the guy as a starter over that time, and while I can't say anything about past clubs he's worked for, certainly I believe the Cubs organization has never seen him as a guy who could throw more than one or one-plus innings in an outing. And for the past three years, almost every time Maddon has discussed CJ to reporters, there has been a comment on how they have to concentrate on not overusing him, citing his physical build as the reason. After the number of comments he's made about it, I have a hard time seeing Joe being good with trotting the guy out for 100 pitches every five days...

 

[beckdawg]

Randy Johnson says "hello".

While I'm not entirely sold on the whole health aspect of this conversation, there's a difference between 6-10 Randy Johnson and 6-3 Edwards. IMO the reason Edwards isn't a starter is A) his 4.45 career walk rate and B) the fact his change up is fringy at best. He beats people with his fastball/curve combo. You gotta have a third pitch in order to start however. Maybe he works on a new pitch over an offseason and then he might be more interesting though that walk rate is still going to be troubling.

As for how all this plays out, I think people are over stressing here. Darvish needs at least 2 simulated games and probably 2 rehab starts. He's unlikely to return before September. Smyly is a little bit closer but he has yet to make his rehab starts. Unless he's just flat out dominant you don't need to promote him before september either. You can really just move guys around as needed until September.

 

[Parade_Rain]

While I'm not entirely sold on the whole health aspect of this conversation, there's a difference between 6-10 Randy Johnson and 6-3 Edwards. IMO the reason Edwards isn't a starter is A) his 4.45 career walk rate and B) the fact his change up is fringy at best. He beats people with his fastball/curve combo. You gotta have a third pitch in order to start however. Maybe he works on a new pitch over an offseason and then he might be more interesting though that walk rate is still going to be troubling.

As for how all this plays out, I think people are over stressing here. Darvish needs at least 2 simulated games and probably 2 rehab starts. He's unlikely to return before September. Smyly is a little bit closer but he has yet to make his rehab starts. Unless he's just flat out dominant you don't need to promote him before september either. You can really just move guys around as needed until September.

There is no difference. Both of them are skinny sticks who throw 95+. Longer levers is BS. If levers mattered in throwing hard, every skinny 6'5" HS senior who can't hit 80 on a radar gun could tuen himself into a flame thrower.

 

[brett05]

I dont think so, I think he was forced to pay extra to trade with the cross town team. I know its water under the bridge, but you look at three that could have landed Archer gone for (Torres) nothing, and an underachiever.

Q> Archer

 

[beckdawg]

There is no difference. Both of them are skinny sticks who throw 95+. Longer levers is BS. If levers mattered in throwing hard, every skinny 6'5" HS senior who can't hit 80 on a radar gun could tuen himself into a flame thrower.

Height matters in so far as plane. Like I said I'm not as convinced by the health side of the arguments being made here but to say that 7" of height doesn't make a difference is rather short sighted to me. That's like saying there's no difference between a 6-3 pitcher and a 5-8 pitcher. There aren't many 5-8 pitchers in baseball.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Height matters in so far as plane. Like I said I'm not as convinced by the health side of the arguments being made here but to say that 7" of height doesn't make a difference is rather short sighted to me. That's like saying there's no difference between a 6-3 pitcher and a 5-8 pitcher. There aren't many 5-8 pitchers in baseball.

The hitters adjust to plane. It's called swinging slightly up and launch angle. If you havent already, you will start to see the higher part of the zone used to attack batters again to defend against "launch angle".

 

[CSF77]

As far as CJ goes I am concerned with durability. Stuff wise his stuff is legit.

I personally think he needs to add a cutter regardless to go along with his 4 seam/curve. A change up imo is just a choking down. Changeups are rated on command and movement also.

I have the opinion that a 2 seam works very well with a change. A 4 seem works with a curve.

As far as fastball go a 4 is more strait but higher rpm will cause it to stay higher or rise. CJ has this. A 2 seem needs lower rpm as it needs to move. Hendricks has lower rpm on his 2 and his gets good movement.

A cut fastball moves in (cut)a 2 seam moves out (tail)

Change ups depends on the grip. Common are circle. That tails. Or a palm variant which is more of a choke. Trevor Hoffman used a modified palm ball and became one of the best closers with a below avg 4 seem because he hid the pitch.

 

[beckdawg]

Stuff wise his stuff is legit.

... for a reliever. Until he has a third above average offering this is a pointless debate. More over, if the cubs brass thought he could be a starter he would be starting. I had this same conversation with brett re: Kopech. If you don't develop a third pitch you go to the bullpen. People gloss over that if your first two offerings are great but it frankly shouldn't be glossed over. MLB hitters can hit good even great fastballs. They can hit wicked breaking pitches. The only thing stopping them is enough variety so that they don't know what is coming. As a reliever, if you don't have your breaking pitch working on a particular night you can amp up and throw your fastball harder and sometimes get by for an inning. You can't do that over 5 innings because you're spent by the 3rd or 4th inning.

If Edwards comes to camp with a decent third pitch next offseason then sure have the conversation. But until that point I don't really see why we're having this conversation. Teams don't move starters to the bullpen just for fun. If a team thinks a guy has a chance to start he's given every opportunity to do so. The one caveat to that is sometimes you'll see a fast moving guy go into a bullpen late in a season to help a playoff bound team. But that's usually not because he can't start it's because they need what he can provide out of the pen. That's not Edwards. He's been in the pen since AAA.

 

[chibears55]

I think that they need to also focus on reloading vs shooting the load. They have a lux of depth and talent. There is nothing wrong with playing the long game also. It is no secret that they have one of the worst farms and that is a direct result from selling the farm for short term gain and bad draft position. Add into it a handycap in international spending.

They dont have the worse farm system..
Most of their talent are in lower levels,
they have good depth at pitching SS and Catcher there .
Just because their not highly ranked nationally, doesn't mean their bad..
Look at Bote, he wasn't even on the map til this year..

I don't disagree with you that they may make some trades this offseason..
Im the one who said they may look to trade Quintana or Hendricks and that they will have a couple new position players next year, so that opens up a couple guys used to make deals...
So, were not in total disagreement here..
I just dont agree with you on them making CJ Edwards a starter..

Let remember too...
Epstein contract expires after the 2021 season , which also is when most of the core players become FA eligible..
So
Im not saying Epstein wont consider returning but we would have to think that his main goal is to win another championship with the bulk of this core the next 3 years over looking to totally rebuild the system again..
So, were not going to see trades that results in just prospects..
If he makes a major trade or two with players from the main roster, it basically going to be for guys who can help them win now, with maybe lower level prospects that could be ready in a few yrs from now..
And
Obviously if he trades guys like Russell Happ Schwarber, or Heyward this offseason he probably going to bring in a big name FA like Machado or Harper to replace them.

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