2019-20 MLB Hot Stove thread

[CSF77]

I've already in detail said this in the prospect thread so I wont go super in depth here but people need to stop saying this because it just ain't true. Are they a top 5 organization at targeting pitching and finding gems? No but to say they suck is pretty ignorant of the situation. The thing people gotta understand is you don't generally pull top 100 pitchers from outside the first 20 or so picks. There's a little leeway there with high schooler arms sometimes going in the sandwich round and becoming a thing but those players are typically getting higher value slot bonuses than their pick would otherwise indicate.

If you look at the top 10 or so RH and LH pitching prospects the lowest draft bonus I believe was Kopech at $1.5 mil. I didn't do a super exhaustive search so I may have missed someone but suffice to say the vast majority of arms you will see on those type of list got crazy bonuses because most pitchers can't just develop crazy stuff and the ones who have it to start with already get the bonuses. Anyways since 2014 which was the last year I had easy access to bonus data the cubs had 4 pitchers who got $1.5 mil or over and they were Cease, Lange, Little and Jensen.

That's where the cubs issue with pitching is. They haven't invested resources into it. The 2 years they did were 2014 and 2017. In 2017 they came away with several guys who will make the majors. Biggest issue there was Little and Lange not living up to expectations at least thus far but then other than Nate Pearson there weren't really anyone they "missed" on big time. 2014 was the Cease/Sands/Steele draft and while Sands was an out right bust Cease and Steele have been decent picks.

Going forward, I really don't see their approach changing that much from what we've seen save for 1 point. The reason for this is hitting is just so much more reliable. I mean just go through and look at how strong their picks for hitters high in the draft have been. Almora is probably the worst and he's still a useful MLB player. The one point I do think that will be different though is I think we're going to see them go after a lot more guys like Jensen who have good stuff but are flawed in some way. The idea there being if you can fix his third pitch with their pitch lab then the rest of his stuff is good enough. Additionally, another thing we've seen that I think will pay dividends is them targeting late blooming high school arms and paying them like 3rd round money later in the draft. They've done that with Kohl Franklin and DJ Herz the past two years and it turn out to be a really smart play given they have a bigger scouting department than a lot of other teams.

When you have been running an organization for 8 years and have not drafted and developed 1 player. Hendricks was traded for. Was in AA at the time. Edwards same thing.

What I have said has been accurate so don't try to divert this.

Even Weick and Wick we're trade targets.

I was not happy that they traded Cease. Enough said on that. They had a TOR finally and tossed him away for a short fix.

 

[CSF77]

You did not answer my question. Of the 4 guys traded for Quintana, which of them would be on the MLB roster right now? Or is it more likely they would have been traded later for someone else. If that's the case, then it isn't the trade, but the trade results that has you upset.

Eloy would be starting. No doubt about that one. They would have worked around it.

With Cease he would be in the rotation now. I still think that they target Cole regardless at that point. But they also might have aimed to retain.

 

[Castor76]

Eloy would be starting. No doubt about that one. They would have worked around it.

With Cease he would be in the rotation now. I still think that they target Cole regardless at that point. But they also might have aimed to retain.

Eloy would be starting where and over whom? You going to put him in RF and let Heyward play CF hoping he can cover up for both Eloy and Schwarber?

And Cease? Let me avoid the bad pun. Who pitches in 2017 and 18 while he's still in the minors in Q's place? Reality is neither of these guys would have been Cubs in 2017 or 18 and weren't so good that their 2019 would have been a difference.

So what are you selling here?

 

[CSF77]

Eloy would be starting where and over whom? You going to put him in RF and let Heyward play CF hoping he can cover up for both Eloy and Schwarber?

And Cease? Let me avoid the bad pun. Who pitches in 2017 and 18 while he's still in the minors in Q's place? Reality is neither of these guys would have been Cubs in 2017 or 18 and weren't so good that their 2019 would have been a difference.

So what are you selling here?

Like I said they would have made it work. They traded for a worse fielder. And to be honest a lower ceiling player.

End of the day talent and production requires playing time.

 

[CSF77]

Anyways the fact peeps are justifying 2 top 100 prospects for Q is laughable.

 

[knoxville7]

Anyways the fact peeps are justifying 2 top 100 prospects for Q is laughable.

Nobody is saying it turned out to be a good trade. People are saying that they understand why Theo/Jed made that move, and that it’s actually consistent with what Theo said his plan was from the start.

 

[Castor76]

Anyways the fact peeps are justifying 2 top 100 prospects for Q is laughable.

You are hindsight bemoaning the trade result and not the trade itself.

What the hell kind of answer is "would have made it work out." ? You are using the results to justify your dislike for the action.

 

[Castor76]

And you're bemoaning giving up 2 top 100 prospects who were bother still a year and a half away at the time of the trade from cracking the majors for 3 1/2 years of control on a pitcher on a great contract who put up 4 consecutive 200 + IP seasons and has a decent K/BB ration.

But, hey, I guess if they had had Cease and Eloy, the Cubs would have made the playoffs this past season.

 

[beckdawg]

What I have said has been accurate so don't try to divert this.

It's really not. They have had MLB pitchers they've drafted. Paul Blackburn made the majors. Zach Godley made the majors. Cease has made the majors. Pierce Johnson made the majors. Duane Underwood made the majors. Rob Zastryzny made the majors.

Your complaint is they haven't produced stars which directly relates to HOW they acquire pitching which was my entire point. And for what it's worth, this also ignores the fact that the first 3 or so years they were here was totally revamping the system that produced nothing after Shark. They had even worse pitching depth then. Johnson was a college pitcher who part of that first draft class and didn't make the majors until 2017 which is 5 years later. Underwood was also part of that class and didn't make the majors until 2018. This shit takes time unless you strike gold on someone but again that typically is when you are drafting someone with a lot of talent and those players tend to require big bonuses which they just haven't spent.

Point here being if you're unhappy with their pitching situation your argument isn't with development. It's with the strategy of them putting so much emphasis on hitting. There aren't many organizations in baseball who could do more with the resources the cubs have put in. I'd argue the Yankees are one. The dodgers might be another. But even those organizations aren't pulling huge results out of 4th-10th round picks regularly. Walker Buehler was the 24th pick in the 2015 draft. Dustin May was a 3rd round pick but got way more than 3rd round money netting $1 mil.

You contrast that with the cubs who have given a grand total of 9 pitchers more than $1 mil since 2014 and only 4 of those were more than $1.5 mil. It's like I said before, you don't just magically find guys with top tier stuff past the first 3 rounds of the draft unless they are high school players with signability concerns. Simple fact of the matter is the cubs have only rarely drafted guys who had any development left barring some sort of huge break out. If you draft a college pitcher throwing 92 he's not going to go out and develop a 95 mph fastball out of the blue.

 

[TL1961]

When you have been running an organization for 8 years and have not drafted and developed 1 player. Hendricks was traded for. Was in AA at the time. Edwards same thing.

What I have said has been accurate so don't try to divert this.

Even Weick and Wick we're trade targets.

I was not happy that they traded Cease. Enough said on that. They had a TOR finally and tossed him away for a short fix.

TOR?

Getting a roster of players that can win is the goal.

If you draft Player A and use him to acquire a productive Player B, not developing Player A means nothing.

 

[TL1961]

Anyways the fact peeps are justifying 2 top 100 prospects for Q is laughable.

Not at all.

Q eats innings and that matters.

I listened to a major league manager say last year he would be as happy getting seven innings from a starter allowing four runs as he would getting six innings from the same starter allowing only three runs.

Innings and durability matter. And Q wasTop10 in mlb in WAR over the preceding three seasons prior to the trade.

He hasn’t turned into Chris Sale but let’s not pretend he provides no value.

 

[CSF77]

Not at all.

Q eats innings and that matters.

I listened to a major league manager say last year he would be as happy getting seven innings from a starter allowing four runs as he would getting six innings from the same starter allowing only three runs.

Innings and durability matter. And Q wasTop10 in mlb in WAR over the preceding three seasons prior to the trade.

He hasn’t turned into Chris Sale but let’s not pretend he provides no value.

2 top 100 prospects buys more than a innings eater. You can get one of those every year on the market that doesn't cost your only blue chips.

Regardless if they were developing their own talent and Cease was one of 2-3 that they had in the stable then sure. But when that is the only guy. Well...

End of the day it didn't work out and that is on Theo. If it did it would be an at-a-boy Theo.

Results define decisions.

 

[CSF77]

TOR?

Getting a roster of players that can win is the goal.

If you draft Player A and use him to acquire a productive Player B, not developing Player A means nothing.

Cease at the time was ranked in the top 90 prospects in baseball and he rose the further that he got from injury. He was the only pitcher that they drafted for a ceiling vs a floor.

 

[CSF77]

It's really not. They have had MLB pitchers they've drafted. Paul Blackburn made the majors. Zach Godley made the majors. Cease has made the majors. Pierce Johnson made the majors. Duane Underwood made the majors. Rob Zastryzny made the majors.

Your complaint is they haven't produced stars which directly relates to HOW they acquire pitching which was my entire point. And for what it's worth, this also ignores the fact that the first 3 or so years they were here was totally revamping the system that produced nothing after Shark. They had even worse pitching depth then. Johnson was a college pitcher who part of that first draft class and didn't make the majors until 2017 which is 5 years later. Underwood was also part of that class and didn't make the majors until 2018. This shit takes time unless you strike gold on someone but again that typically is when you are drafting someone with a lot of talent and those players tend to require big bonuses which they just haven't spent.

Point here being if you're unhappy with their pitching situation your argument isn't with development. It's with the strategy of them putting so much emphasis on hitting. There aren't many organizations in baseball who could do more with the resources the cubs have put in. I'd argue the Yankees are one. The dodgers might be another. But even those organizations aren't pulling huge results out of 4th-10th round picks regularly. Walker Buehler was the 24th pick in the 2015 draft. Dustin May was a 3rd round pick but got way more than 3rd round money netting $1 mil.

You contrast that with the cubs who have given a grand total of 9 pitchers more than $1 mil since 2014 and only 4 of those were more than $1.5 mil. It's like I said before, you don't just magically find guys with top tier stuff past the first 3 rounds of the draft unless they are high school players with signability concerns. Simple fact of the matter is the cubs have only rarely drafted guys who had any development left barring some sort of huge break out. If you draft a college pitcher throwing 92 he's not going to go out and develop a 95 mph fastball out of the blue.

And they pretty much all washed out. Not one of them has made a impact.

We used to bash on Jim Hendry but that man drafted Shark. (MLB pitcher). Rich Hill another MLB pitcher. Starlin Castro, Josh Donaldson (traded in the 2008 run). Cashman who IMO should have stayed as a closer.

Theo has made some smart trades over the years also. Don't get me wrong. Getting Cole Hammels was a steal. Trading for Jake another amazing deal. Hendricks was just luck. He was a toss in. Fact that he developed like he did was against the odds for his velocity.

If the Cubs lose in 2016 then that trade is a bone head move. Fact they won it is called genius.

Same applies to trading for Q. It has failed and they could have gotten that production in the market. Q was never the ace of the White Sox and the Cubs paid like he was.

 

[Castor76]

And they pretty much all washed out. Not one of them has made a impact.

We used to bash on Jim Hendry but that man drafted Shark. (MLB pitcher). Rich Hill another MLB pitcher. Starlin Castro, Josh Donaldson (traded in the 2008 run). Cashman who IMO should have stayed as a closer.

Theo has made some smart trades over the years also. Don't get me wrong. Getting Cole Hammels was a steal. Trading for Jake another amazing deal. Hendricks was just luck. He was a toss in. Fact that he developed like he did was against the odds for his velocity.

If the Cubs lose in 2016 then that trade is a bone head move. Fact they won it is called genius.

Same applies to trading for Q. It has failed and they could have gotten that production in the market. Q was never the ace of the White Sox and the Cubs paid like he was.

You are still weighing the trade with the value of the prospects then versus Q's production so far. Reality is those two players haven't done much of anything in the majors as of yet. The Cubs did make the NLCS in 2017, the year they traded for Q.

The Cubs staff ERA pre-ASB was 4.10. It was 3.78 post-ASB with Q being right on that line at 3.74. It's taken the Sox a year and a half just to see anything from those kids at the MLB level. For that season they got a horrible ERA, worse WHIP, a good K/9, and below average K/BB along with a guy who does mash with he hits the ball but doesn't do that enough and would see his value double by removing him from the field. I'm sure you haven't forgotten the NL doesn't have a DH yet. Granted, it was both these young men's first year in the majors, but don't talk about them like the Cubs gave up Ted Williams and Walter Johnson for Q. Eloy was never going to make the majors with the Cubs. And neither of those players would have made a difference to playoff runs as Cubs. Eloy got traded at his height of value for the Cubs. And you almost never trade for an arm without giving one back.

 

[Discus fish salesman]

And they pretty much all washed out. Not one of them has made a impact.

We used to bash on Jim Hendry but that man drafted Shark. (MLB pitcher). Rich Hill another MLB pitcher. Starlin Castro, Josh Donaldson (traded in the 2008 run). Cashman who IMO should have stayed as a closer.

Theo has made some smart trades over the years also. Don't get me wrong. Getting Cole Hammels was a steal. Trading for Jake another amazing deal. Hendricks was just luck. He was a toss in. Fact that he developed like he did was against the odds for his velocity.

If the Cubs lose in 2016 then that trade is a bone head move. Fact they won it is called genius.

Same applies to trading for Q. It has failed and they could have gotten that production in the market. Q was never the ace of the White Sox and the Cubs paid like he was.

So you’d have rather had Cashner* closing then Rizzo as our first baseman this last decade?

Also Hendricks wasn’t just a throw in. It was Hendricks and Villanueva for Dempster. They were both mediocre prospects and it was quite a bit less than some people expected us to get for Dempster. I’m sure those two were hand picked by our front office

 

[CSF77]

So you’d have rather had Cashner* closing then Rizzo as our first baseman this last decade?

Also Hendricks wasn’t just a throw in. It was Hendricks and Villanueva for Dempster. They were both mediocre prospects and it was quite a bit less than some people expected us to get for Dempster. I’m sure those two were hand picked by our front office

I never said that. The point is Hendry was bashed for his inability to target quality talent. Which is wrong.

I really did not go into the trade because that point is obvious. And unrelated.

The whole point that I am making is Theo needs to get better at developing his own pitching. I really don't get why anyone would argue this point.

 

[CSF77]

You are still weighing the trade with the value of the prospects then versus Q's production so far. Reality is those two players haven't done much of anything in the majors as of yet. The Cubs did make the NLCS in 2017, the year they traded for Q.

The Cubs staff ERA pre-ASB was 4.10. It was 3.78 post-ASB with Q being right on that line at 3.74. It's taken the Sox a year and a half just to see anything from those kids at the MLB level. For that season they got a horrible ERA, worse WHIP, a good K/9, and below average K/BB along with a guy who does mash with he hits the ball but doesn't do that enough and would see his value double by removing him from the field. I'm sure you haven't forgotten the NL doesn't have a DH yet. Granted, it was both these young men's first year in the majors, but don't talk about them like the Cubs gave up Ted Williams and Walter Johnson for Q. Eloy was never going to make the majors with the Cubs. And neither of those players would have made a difference to playoff runs as Cubs. Eloy got traded at his height of value for the Cubs. And you almost never trade for an arm without giving one back.

You realize Eloy hit 31 HR's as a rookie right? His OBA and DEF dragged his fWAR down to a 1.9 but connecting for 31 bombs in your first taste of the top leagues is impressive.

Cease got hurt by the HR last year and that will take time to lower that. With him is more so timeas his SO % is at 24.9% and is sustainable. Him turning out like Giolito is more likely than not.

 

[knoxville7]

I never said that. The point is Hendry was bashed for his inability to target quality talent. Which is wrong.

I really did not go into the trade because that point is obvious. And unrelated.

The whole point that I am making is Theo needs to get better at developing his own pitching. I really don't get why anyone would argue this point.

Again, theos approach has been draft hitters...buy/trade for pitching. To complain that he doesn’t develop pitching is just silly when the resources have been going to hitting. Not to mention, you like to point that Hendricks was a “throw in” in the trade deal and that it was “luck” that he turned out to be what he is. Was it really just “luck” or was it that he got developed in the cubs system? You can’t cast aside the few pitching success stories as just “luck” because it fits your narrative. I’m guessing jakes development after coming to the cubs organization was just “luck” too huh?

 

[zack54attack]

lol Goodbye Nick.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1214237117267791874