2019-20 MLB Hot Stove thread

[Castor76]

You realize Eloy hit 31 HR's as a rookie right? His OBA and DEF dragged his fWAR down to a 1.9 but connecting for 31 bombs in your first taste of the top leagues is impressive.

Cease got hurt by the HR last year and that will take time to lower that. With him is more so timeas his SO % is at 24.9% and is sustainable. Him turning out like Giolito is more likely than not.

I mentioned that Eloy mashed when he hit the ball. I also mentioned that as an NL team that the Cubs can't hide him at DH so the DEF would always be a problem and the Cubs already have a guy who hits HRs and has a livable OBP in LF. What he did was impressive, but nothing he's done would have been any help to the Cubs at any point.

Just admit you lost this argument. The Cubs traded a young arm with promise and a guy who was destined to be a DH along with a couple of toss ins for an arm who who came in and help settle a staff and the team got to the NLCS that year and back to the playoffs the next year

 

[CSF77]

I mentioned that Eloy mashed when he hit the ball. I also mentioned that as an NL team that the Cubs can't hide him at DH so the DEF would always be a problem and the Cubs already have a guy who hits HRs and has a livable OBP in LF. What he did was impressive, but nothing he's done would have been any help to the Cubs at any point.

Just admit you lost this argument. The Cubs traded a young arm with promise and a guy who was destined to be a DH along with a couple of toss ins for an arm who who came in and help settle a staff and the team got to the NLCS that year and back to the playoffs the next year

They lost on that trade. There is no other way of looking at it. It is baffling to think otherwise. All you are doing is justifying a bad deal.

 

[Castor76]

They lost on that trade. There is no other way of looking at it. It is baffling to think otherwise. All you are doing is justifying a bad deal.

How did they lose? As a stubborn person myself, I am baffled that you hold to your guns like this. You cling to that they were rated as Top 100 prospects at time of the trade when it was pointed out that one of those players had and has no future as a valuable NL player. The Cubs got to the playoffs twice, the NLCS once and could still trade the guy they got. The Sox have gotten Jack and his twin brother Shit out of the trade other than young, controllable guys.

You can't say a team that made the playoffs the year of the trade and the year after and that player traded for was successful in that time as a loss.

Houston didn't win a World Series with Garrett Cole. Did they lose that trade?

 

[beckdawg]

And they pretty much all washed out. Not one of them has made a impact.

We used to bash on Jim Hendry but that man drafted Shark. (MLB pitcher). Rich Hill another MLB pitcher. Starlin Castro, Josh Donaldson (traded in the 2008 run). Cashman who IMO should have stayed as a closer.

I'm ignoring castro and donaldson because I don't see the relevance to a conversation about pitchers. With regards to Shark, they did exactly what I'm saying is the issue with the current strategy. They gave him a **** ton of money to not play football. It's not that he was an untalented pitcher. He probably would have gone in the first round if there were no worries about him playing football. So, it's not as though they magically developed him into a great pitcher. He always had talent. I assume you mean Cashner not Cashman. Cashner was the 19th pick in the 2008 draft. Again, that's a quality player not someone they magically developed.

As for rich hill, 2002 is like the dark ages for trying to find info on guys. Wikipedia doesn't have how much he was given in bonus. Given the rules were quite different in 2002 it could have been a lot or it could have been standard 4th round money. It's difficult to say. The little info I could dig up on Hill suggested he always had the great curveball but struggled with command and mechanics. That's a smart type of pick.

Regardless, comparing pre-draft slot bonuses to current day draft is pretty dumb. In the past there was nothing stopping you from drafting a top 10 talent in the 30th round by just promising him a huge bonus. That's entirely the reason they changed the way the draft worked.

As for the current front office, it's like I said, there's reason to criticize their strategy. You're just using the wrong ones. Saying they don't know how to develop pitching is ignorant. In that same time span you're talking about with Hendry they developed Lester and Bucholtz among others. The criticism you should be using is either A) they should have put more emphasis on pitchers higher in the draft or given more money to high school pitchers late or B) they should have taken players with upside but flaws.

We can sit here and debate the merits of that strategy. But their lack of results for pitching isn't because they don't know how to develop pitching. And either way, I think their current strategy since 2017 has been far more successful at finding interesting pitchers. A guy like Riley Thompson is someone who maybe you can develop into someone interesting where as someone like Ryan Williams was polished but likely was never going to have enough upside to make the majors. I also find it very interesting they targeted a lot of guys who teams thought might be relievers in this past draft. If they can develop 3rd pitches for some guys like Jensen they have really high upsides. And if they don't they have good back up plans as relievers.

 

[CSF77]

Nobody is saying it turned out to be a good trade. People are saying that they understand why Theo/Jed made that move, and that it’s actually consistent with what Theo said his plan was from the start.

Not really. It was sacrificing the sustainable for the present.

There is no other way to look at it.

Sustainable is more so keeping a run going and pay roll is a major part of it. So he sold out the farm (cheaper assets) for a SP that was not even ace level.

Even at the time he was a 2-4 SP depending on who you ask. He was not at Gioglito's level who pitches like an ace on a bad team. Q was on some good teams and was avg or above at best.

Sure I could have seen a deal for him but not Eloy and Cease.

At that time Happ was helping the team and Caratini was viewed as a solid hitter. Both could have been options. They also had ODLC pre roid fail.

Over all at that point the system was pretty much depleted so the right call was holding the deck or taking a lesser offer vs dumping your only 2 chips for a non ace.

 

[CSF77]

I'm ignoring castro and donaldson because I don't see the relevance to a conversation about pitchers. With regards to Shark, they did exactly what I'm saying is the issue with the current strategy. They gave him a **** ton of money to not play football. It's not that he was an untalented pitcher. He probably would have gone in the first round if there were no worries about him playing football. So, it's not as though they magically developed him into a great pitcher. He always had talent. I assume you mean Cashner not Cashman. Cashner was the 19th pick in the 2008 draft. Again, that's a quality player not someone they magically developed.

As for rich hill, 2002 is like the dark ages for trying to find info on guys. Wikipedia doesn't have how much he was given in bonus. Given the rules were quite different in 2002 it could have been a lot or it could have been standard 4th round money. It's difficult to say. The little info I could dig up on Hill suggested he always had the great curveball but struggled with command and mechanics. That's a smart type of pick.

Regardless, comparing pre-draft slot bonuses to current day draft is pretty dumb. In the past there was nothing stopping you from drafting a top 10 talent in the 30th round by just promising him a huge bonus. That's entirely the reason they changed the way the draft worked.

As for the current front office, it's like I said, there's reason to criticize their strategy. You're just using the wrong ones. Saying they don't know how to develop pitching is ignorant. In that same time span you're talking about with Hendry they developed Lester and Bucholtz among others. The criticism you should be using is either A) they should have put more emphasis on pitchers higher in the draft or given more money to high school pitchers late or B) they should have taken players with upside but flaws.

We can sit here and debate the merits of that strategy. But their lack of results for pitching isn't because they don't know how to develop pitching. And either way, I think their current strategy since 2017 has been far more successful at finding interesting pitchers. A guy like Riley Thompson is someone who maybe you can develop into someone interesting where as someone like Ryan Williams was polished but likely was never going to have enough upside to make the majors. I also find it very interesting they targeted a lot of guys who teams thought might be relievers in this past draft. If they can develop 3rd pitches for some guys like Jensen they have really high upsides. And if they don't they have good back up plans as relievers.

That year Hendry had like 4 1st round picks and all busted. Hill and Donaldson were 2nd round guys and they traded Donaldson for Harden.

As far as the money goes I have no clue. Hill was a grad at Michigan so it is not like he had heavy leverage going in.

 

[CSF77]

How did they lose? As a stubborn person myself, I am baffled that you hold to your guns like this. You cling to that they were rated as Top 100 prospects at time of the trade when it was pointed out that one of those players had and has no future as a valuable NL player. The Cubs got to the playoffs twice, the NLCS once and could still trade the guy they got. The Sox have gotten Jack and his twin brother Shit out of the trade other than young, controllable guys.

You can't say a team that made the playoffs the year of the trade and the year after and that player traded for was successful in that time as a loss.

Houston didn't win a World Series with Garrett Cole. Did they lose that trade?

It is far too early to call Eloy a DH only. You really need 2-3 years to compile enough data. Not to mention you are discounting improvement in reading routes and getting to know the diffrent parks.

If we did that with Javi he would have been a error prone SS. Not the GG guy that he is now. It goes both ways.

Add to it Schwarber vastly improved when he put the effort in. To just sit back and say nope really is an ignorant opinion.

 

[CSF77]

He also drafted Prior and was involved when they got Wood and Zambrano. So Jim was not all that bad at targeting talent. The problem was having the Tribune as your boss. They never gave him the tools and payroll that Tom has given Theo.

 

[CSF77]

Oh and tying this together.

Many would have said Sori was a DH only and over paid. Honestly he got better and looking at his production as a Cub and his pay check. It didn't turn out that bad at all.

The point is if that guy could improve as a OF when he decided to accually got together with a Fielding guru he had his best season out there at an advanced age.

End of the story is all about targeting talent. Then honing it. Even vets can improve.

 

[Castor76]

It is far too early to call Eloy a DH only. You really need 2-3 years to compile enough data. Not to mention you are discounting improvement in reading routes and getting to know the diffrent parks.

If we did that with Javi he would have been a error prone SS. Not the GG guy that he is now. It goes both ways.

Add to it Schwarber vastly improved when he put the effort in. To just sit back and say nope really is an ignorant opinion.

So it's too early to rate them, but not too early to rate the trade a bust? Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.

 

[knoxville7]

Not really. It was sacrificing the sustainable for the present.

There is no other way to look at it.

Sustainable is more so keeping a run going and pay roll is a major part of it. So he sold out the farm (cheaper assets) for a SP that was not even ace level.

Even at the time he was a 2-4 SP depending on who you ask. He was not at Gioglito's level who pitches like an ace on a bad team. Q was on some good teams and was avg or above at best.

Sure I could have seen a deal for him but not Eloy and Cease.

At that time Happ was helping the team and Caratini was viewed as a solid hitter. Both could have been options. They also had ODLC pre roid fail.

Over all at that point the system was pretty much depleted so the right call was holding the deck or taking a lesser offer vs dumping your only 2 chips for a non ace.

Theo also talks about going after titles when he sees a title contending team. Look at the 2017 cubs roster. They were the defending champs and had a rotation of...

Arrieta
Lester
Hendricks

Then you had a big drop off in quality with...
Lackey
Montgomery
Eddie butler

It was clear they needed to add a starter but that they did not need a #1 guy...as Lester, jake, and Kyle were all #1/#2 quality starters that year. They went out and added a quality starter in Q. They then went to the NLCS and fell just short of getting back to the World Series. If they had won the World Series that year, you’d be signing a different tune I’m sure. I’ll never blame a GM for going out and getting a player they think can put a team over the top. You don’t get chances to win a World Series often...I’m sure a fellow cubs fan can understand that

 

[zack54attack]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1214318492083785735

 

[TL1961]

Cease at the time was ranked in the top 90 prospects in baseball and he rose the further that he got from injury. He was the only pitcher that they drafted for a ceiling vs a floor.

Is he a TOR?

 

[TL1961]

They lost on that trade. There is no other way of looking at it. It is baffling to think otherwise. All you are doing is justifying a bad deal.

Had they stood pat, and fell short of the playoffs, would you suggest the non-move was the right thing?

 

[beckdawg]

Cubs signed Carlos Asuaje to a minor league deal. By no means is this a "big deal" but I like the guy. He hit .252/.356/.368 in Korea last year and in the winter leagues he's hit .372/.449/.535. 2018 he also hit .314/.386/.463 in AAA for the Pads. Statistically he's a guy with a pretty good eye and really low K rates. It hasn't quite translated for him in the majors yet. His major league bb/k rates are 9.0%/21.5% where as his rates in the minors were 10.4%/14.8%. He doesn't have a ton of power(.154 ISO in the minors .105 in MLB) but mlb average for 2b is .164 ISO.

Long story short, for a guy costing you basically nothing there's some upside there. Might be able to fill the shoes for Zobrist's role.

 

[CSF77]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/...n=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-

meh IMO. he seemed to fail in Korea also. This is a huge dumpster dive.

 

[CSF77]

Had they stood pat, and fell short of the playoffs, would you suggest the non-move was the right thing?

If they did and fell short would it have been the right thing? Oh ya that is right. They did fall short.

The thing is that they were the 3rd best team going into the play offs.
At the time of the trade the Cubs were 43-45. July 13th. The main problem was Jake lost velocity and Lackey was over the hill. 2nd half Jake made the adjustments to become viable. 1st half 4.35 ERA. 2nd half 2.28 ERA. Lackey 5.20 to a 2.74 ERA

So the real problem was not lacking a starter. It was getting the guys they had back on track.

Jul. 13: Cubs acquire Jose Quintana for top prospect Eloy Jimenez, three others
guy I wanted at the time.
Jul. 31: A’s trade Sonny Gray to Yankees for prospects

The Athletics were originally asking for one of Gleyber Torres or Clint Frazier in the Gray talks, and Cashman was not willing to part with either one. As it seemed like the Yankees were by far the most involved team in negotiations, the price began to fall.

Gray represents a solid starter that the Yankees can basically pencil in right behind Luis Severino in their rotation. He is under control for two years beyond 2017 which will help mitigate the potential loss of CC Sabathia and Masahiro Tanaka in free agency, if it comes to that.


Sonny Gray helps the Yankees with a playoff push and in the future

Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
In 97 innings so far this season, Gray has pitched to a 3.43 ERA with a 3.24 WHIP. His 2.2 fWAR so far would be second among Yankee starters behind only Severino. With the Yankees going out and getting Jaime Garcia on Sunday, Gray could help them ease Jordan Montgomery through what seems likely to be an innings limit down the stretch. Montgomery has fallen off a bit in July, possibly due to fatigue, which makes the acquisition of Gray all the more important.

Cashman was able to land Gray without parting with Estevan Florial, the outfield prospect whose rise made parting with Blake Rutherford in the David Robertson/Tommy Kahnle trade possible. Instead, the Yankees will be sending Jorge Mateo, James Kaprielian, and Dustin Fowler to Oakland.




Lesson to learn here. The longer that you wait the sells start to panic.

 

[Castor76]

And the Yankees celebrated winning the title that year, right? Oh wait. And his 4.90 ERA the next season I'm sure made Yankee fans happy to have him out there. And being the big fan of WAR that I know you are, Gray's 1.6 total for NYY versus the price is better than Q's 3.5 that he gave the Cubs over those same years I'm certain. Right?

 

[beckdawg]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/...n=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-

meh IMO. he seemed to fail in Korea also. This is a huge dumpster dive.

Wouldn't say a .724 OPS is "failing". MLB average for 2B OPS is .745. And the only real reason he's lower than MLB average was his power. The nice thing about him is his bb/k rate. If you look at 2019 hitters who have a 9% or better walk rate and less than a 16% K rate you come up with 4 names. Luis Arraez from MIN(125 wRC+), Aledmys Diaz from HOU(119 wRC+), Zobrist(85 wRC+) and Jurickson Profar from the A's(89 wRC+). In the case of Profar he was just murdered by BABIP hitting .218 with a .218 BABIP. Zobrist had no power(.053 ISO). Other two were obviously solid bats.

Like I said I'm not suggesting he's any kind of star but I'd certainly take his 2017 with the Pads where he hit .270/.334/.362(88 wRC+). More over his AAA line would suggest there might be slightly more than that where he hit .294/.371/.440. If he hits something like .270/.335/.400 he'll be a roughly league average hitter and the type of league average hitter that grinds at bats which is something the cubs really have needed.

 

[beckdawg]

Also FWIW, Asuaje hits RHP well even in the majors. His career split vs RHP is .261/.334/.366(91 wRC+). Definitely looks like a platoon type player with a .182/.248/.226(32 wRC+) vs LHP. But for bench guys who play multiple positions you can get away with that and it's nice he hits RHP which you see 3/4th of the time.