2019-20 MLB Hot Stove thread

[TL1961]

If they did and fell short would it have been the right thing? Oh ya that is right. They did fall short.

The thing is that they were the 3rd best team going into the play offs.
At the time of the trade the Cubs were 43-45. July 13th. The main problem was Jake lost velocity and Lackey was over the hill. 2nd half Jake made the adjustments to become viable. 1st half 4.35 ERA. 2nd half 2.28 ERA. Lackey 5.20 to a 2.74 ERA

So the real problem was not lacking a starter. It was getting the guys they had back on track.

Jul. 13: Cubs acquire Jose Quintana for top prospect Eloy Jimenez, three others
guy I wanted at the time.
Jul. 31: A’s trade Sonny Gray to Yankees for prospects

The Athletics were originally asking for one of Gleyber Torres or Clint Frazier in the Gray talks, and Cashman was not willing to part with either one. As it seemed like the Yankees were by far the most involved team in negotiations, the price began to fall.

Gray represents a solid starter that the Yankees can basically pencil in right behind Luis Severino in their rotation. He is under control for two years beyond 2017 which will help mitigate the potential loss of CC Sabathia and Masahiro Tanaka in free agency, if it comes to that.


Sonny Gray helps the Yankees with a playoff push and in the future

Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
In 97 innings so far this season, Gray has pitched to a 3.43 ERA with a 3.24 WHIP. His 2.2 fWAR so far would be second among Yankee starters behind only Severino. With the Yankees going out and getting Jaime Garcia on Sunday, Gray could help them ease Jordan Montgomery through what seems likely to be an innings limit down the stretch. Montgomery has fallen off a bit in July, possibly due to fatigue, which makes the acquisition of Gray all the more important.

Cashman was able to land Gray without parting with Estevan Florial, the outfield prospect whose rise made parting with Blake Rutherford in the David Robertson/Tommy Kahnle trade possible. Instead, the Yankees will be sending Jorge Mateo, James Kaprielian, and Dustin Fowler to Oakland.




Lesson to learn here. The longer that you wait the sells start to panic.

Quintana pitched better for the Cubs than Gray did for the Yankees. What is the point here?

 

[CSF77]

Quintana pitched better for the Cubs than Gray did for the Yankees. What is the point here?

Irrelevant. The point was waiting reduced the cost. That was the point.

What happened? He pitched like crap in NY and they tried to alter his approach if I recall correctly.

After he moved to Cinn he went right back to what he was.

So just a bad match up.

But of course you didn't care about the details right or the point of the post. You decided to be a dick instead. Good one.

 

[kerrywoodwins20]

You did not answer my question. Of the 4 guys traded for Quintana, which of them would be on the MLB roster right now? Or is it more likely they would have been traded later for someone else. If that's the case, then it isn't the trade, but the trade results that has you upset.

Not sure I agree with your premise entirely. It only makes sense if Quintana was the only trade target available. There were other names out there in 2017 and some of them in 2018 and some of them in 2019.

Quintana’s numbers were noticeably declining. Using resources to acquire a need is never a bad thing. Using resources to acquire a need that is dramatically overvalued at the time of the trade is obviously a problem. Pirates did the same thing for Chris Archer. Archer was worth nowhere what the Rays got for him. That deal, like the Quintana trade, was a bad deal the second it was signed.

 

[kerrywoodwins20]

Just look at what the Cubs gave up for Quintana and what they gave up for Hamels. Anyone who watches these guys pitch knew that Hamels was the better pitcher. So you essentially gave up massive resources in the prospect game to save some cash because Quintana was much cheaper than Hamels?

 

[Discus fish salesman]

Irrelevant. The point was waiting reduced the cost. That was the point.

What happened? He pitched like crap in NY and they tried to alter his approach if I recall correctly.

After he moved to Cinn he went right back to what he was.

So just a bad match up.

But of course you didn't care about the details right or the point of the post. You decided to be a dick instead. Good one.

The difference between his level of play in the two cities is that he is unable to handle the pressure of a big market. I think that has been detailed in the media

 

[SilenceS]

Just look at what the Cubs gave up for Quintana and what they gave up for Hamels. Anyone who watches these guys pitch knew that Hamels was the better pitcher. So you essentially gave up massive resources in the prospect game to save some cash because Quintana was much cheaper than Hamels?

Quintana had control and was a top 10 pitcher in WAR in the AL for 2 or 3 seasons. Hamels numbers were inflated in Texas and cost big money.

Also, massive resources? You gave up Cease who is considered a middle of the rotation pitcher not TOR like people are trying to say here. Jiminez is all bat and will be a DH soon enough. The Cubs gave up a nice package, but it wasnt an overpay for the market. You are using revisionist history to paint a terrible picture.

 

[kerrywoodwins20]

Quintana had control and was a top 10 pitcher in WAR in the AL for 2 or 3 seasons. Hamels numbers were inflated in Texas and cost big money.

Also, massive resources? You gave up Cease who is considered a middle of the rotation pitcher not TOR like people are trying to say here. Jiminez is all bat and will be a DH soon enough. The Cubs gave up a nice package, but it wasnt an overpay for the market. You are using revisionist history to paint a terrible picture.

lol no dude. Quintana was not an ace anymore. Everyone knew that. He had a near 6 ERA 2 months into the 2017 season and was getting lit up like a Christmas tree in terms of velocity on batted balls. Factor in his FIP totals climbing steadily since 2014 and guy should have been in a clearance bin. Instead, Theo pays 2014 Quintana full price.

It was an awful trade at the very second it happened and lots of Cubs fans said so. They were just told to shut up and trust in Theo.

 

[CSF77]

Quintana had control and was a top 10 pitcher in WAR in the AL for 2 or 3 seasons. Hamels numbers were inflated in Texas and cost big money.

Also, massive resources? You gave up Cease who is considered a middle of the rotation pitcher not TOR like people are trying to say here. Jiminez is all bat and will be a DH soon enough. The Cubs gave up a nice package, but it wasnt an overpay for the market. You are using revisionist history to paint a terrible picture.

Wtf are you trying to pull? Cease has been concidered ace level ceiling and mid rotation/closer floor for a while now.

At the time of the trade he was ranked #87 on the top 100 and went to the 50's soon after.

Don't get wrapped up in his premier. There are plenty of pitchers that looked like crap as a rookie including Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux.

 

[CSF77]

lol no dude. Quintana was not an ace anymore. Everyone knew that. He had a near 6 ERA 2 months into the 2017 season and was getting lit up like a Christmas tree in terms of velocity on batted balls. Factor in his FIP totals climbing steadily since 2014 and guy should have been in a clearance bin. Instead, Theo pays 2014 Quintana full price.

It was an awful trade at the very second it happened and lots of Cubs fans said so. They were just told to shut up and trust in Theo.

I have to kinda agree with this. Theo did the same thing with Boston. That team went to shit under him at the end.

So this is really not a Theo is above it thing at all. It is a pattern. He builds and then screws up on the winning window stage.

 

[SilenceS]

Wtf are you trying to pull? Cease has been concidered ace level ceiling and mid rotation/closer floor for a while now.

At the time of the trade he was ranked #87 on the top 100 and went to the 50's soon after.

Don't get wrapped up in his premier. There are plenty of pitchers that looked like crap as a rookie including Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux.

Trying to pull? You are over stating his value. He has a big arm with potential plus off speed. He had injury and control issues. He still has control issues. People consider more a #2 or a #3. This isnt going by half a season. Its going by his issues. He surely isnt a middle of the rotation pitcher right now. So, if I was going by that, I would say back end. You are over valuing him. He has major question marks. Even if you want to keep up the "Ace" narrative, he is no where near it so I dont know why you think its this huge get until its proven.

Yet again, Q was a cost controlled pitcher with a proven track record. Its the going rate for cost controlled pitchers.

 

[kerrywoodwins20]

I probably have an irrational hatred of Quintana because I feel he is a mental midget that falls apart the second things get tough. Pretty much the opposite of prime time Arrieta. The last time the Cubs were relevant in the baseball world was game 1 of the NLCS in 2017 IMO. We got a huge 2 run HR off Kershaw to give us a shot in the series, Quintana walks the first 2 of the 5th inning and implodes and then a week later he’s imploding at Wrigley to effectively end our hopes at staying at a high level for longer than 2016.

But I still argue at the time it was a dramatic overpay that Theo did out of desperation.

 

[SilenceS]

lol no dude. Quintana was not an ace anymore. Everyone knew that. He had a near 6 ERA 2 months into the 2017 season and was getting lit up like a Christmas tree in terms of velocity on batted balls. Factor in his FIP totals climbing steadily since 2014 and guy should have been in a clearance bin. Instead, Theo pays 2014 Quintana full price.

It was an awful trade at the very second it happened and lots of Cubs fans said so. They were just told to shut up and trust in Theo.

Jose Quintana - Stats - Pitching | FanGraphs Baseball

Jose Quintana career pitching statistics for Major League, Minor League, and postseason baseball

www.fangraphs.com

This on its own proves your false narrative.

The Cubs were in a competitive window. Its the price you pay. Im not arguing the White Sox are going to win the trade probably by a good bit. My talk is it wasnt terrible off the bat and it made sense for what the Cubs were going for.

 

[SilenceS]

I probably have an irrational hatred of Quintana because I feel he is a mental midget that falls apart the second things get tough. Pretty much the opposite of prime time Arrieta. The last time the Cubs were relevant in the baseball world was game 1 of the NLCS in 2017 IMO. We got a huge 2 run HR off Kershaw to give us a shot in the series, Quintana walks the first 2 of the 5th inning and implodes and then a week later he’s imploding at Wrigley to effectively end our hopes at staying at a high level for longer than 2016.

But I still argue at the time it was a dramatic overpay that Theo did out of desperation.

I can agree on over pay but it was everything involved that made it happen.

I just feel like Theo has made worse mistakes.

 

[kerrywoodwins20]

I can agree on over pay but it was everything involved that made it happen.

I just feel like Theo has made worse mistakes.

ignoring the lead off position when this team has been offensively streaky for 4 years is his worst mistake, probably. Fowler wasn’t a great lead off man, but he was mediocre at the job. And the offense worked well with him. They haven’t had anyone do a reasonable job at it since he left and it seems to not be a big concern to anyone in the organization.

 

[Castor76]

Not sure I agree with your premise entirely. It only makes sense if Quintana was the only trade target available. There were other names out there in 2017 and some of them in 2018 and some of them in 2019.

Quintana’s numbers were noticeably declining. Using resources to acquire a need is never a bad thing. Using resources to acquire a need that is dramatically overvalued at the time of the trade is obviously a problem. Pirates did the same thing for Chris Archer. Archer was worth nowhere what the Rays got for him. That deal, like the Quintana trade, was a bad deal the second it was signed.

My point in the argument was that the players traded weren't going to be of benefit to the Cubs in 2017 or even 2018. You can argue they Cubs should have paid less or targeted another person, but it doesn't change the reality that the players traded themselves would not get the Cubs a title in the years mentioned. And while those players may turn out to be stars or more, the Cubs did reach the NLCS and Q was part of a stabilized rotation in the 2nd half.

In reality, the Cubs traded away a future arm for a now arm and also a guy who is destined to be a DH and some pieces. They didn't win the Series. It's fair to say they traded for the wrong guy. What's not fair is to say the pieces traded would be centerpiece to the Cubs today.

 

[CSF77]

Trying to pull? You are over stating his value. He has a big arm with potential plus off speed. He had injury and control issues. He still has control issues. People consider more a #2 or a #3. This isnt going by half a season. Its going by his issues. He surely isnt a middle of the rotation pitcher right now. So, if I was going by that, I would say back end. You are over valuing him. He has major question marks. Even if you want to keep up the "Ace" narrative, he is no where near it so I dont know why you think its this huge get until its proven.

Yet again, Q was a cost controlled pitcher with a proven track record. Its the going rate for cost controlled pitchers.

2017

Dylan Cease | Rank: 5 (Preseason: 4 - CHC)
Team: Chicago White SoxETA: 2019Position: RHPAge: 24 DOB: 12/28/1995Bats: R Throws: RHeight: 6' 2" Weight: 190 lb.Drafted: 2014, 6th (169) - CHCOther Lists: Top 100 Prospects (#58)

2016

Dylan Cease | Rank: 4 (Preseason: 8)
Team: Chicago White SoxETA: 2018Position: RHPAge: 24 DOB: 12/28/1995Bats: R Throws: RHeight: 6' 2" Weight: 190 lb.Drafted: 2014, 6th (169) - CHCOther Lists: Top 100 Prospects (#98)

When the sox got him he was #98. He shot up with the sox.

Again Theo jumped the gun and sold the farm. Cashman held out on oakland. Oakland was demanding Gleybar who was highly rated at the time and scoffed at it. It ended up Mateo going over in the deal with 2 not in the top 100. Maeto at the time was ranked #18. Eloy #23. Basically a wash. But the Cubs added Cease who was a ranked prospect vs the Yankees tossing in 2 guys that were filler at best.

Say the least Sox won that deal. At the time and it has even looked worse with time.

So it really wasn't about the market was demanding it. It was about Theo trying to jump the gun in panic because the Cubs were under .500 and his job was looking rocky and he sold out vs played it cool and let the market dictate values.

I'm pretty sure this has led to him sitting back more sense that deal. He at least learns from errors.

 

[beckdawg]

That's a very simplistic way of viewing prospects. Fangraphs had 106 prospects with a 50 grade or better. The cut off for 55 was 37. In other words, if you view prospects in tiers, the 38th prospect isn't much if any higher rated than the 106th prospect. The difference in value is more about how a particular team views the player.

As for the Gray trade.... Dustin Fowler wasn't a "throw in". BA had him at 88 prior to 2018 and BP had him at 98. Kaprielian also wasn't a throw in. He was the 16th pick of the 2015 draft and prior to 2017 was rated 87 by BA, and 58th by both mlb.com and BP. This also ignores the fact that Gray had 2 years of control to Quintana's 4.

If you want to be "fair" I think you could argue that the white sox got better pure value in that Eloy and Cease were better prospects. But they also were giving up the pitcher with better team control. The A's gambled on two guys that were injured in Fowler and Kaprielian and another who was pissed about being moved to 2B for Torres' arrival. If 2 of those 3 gambles paid off then they did really well.

I'd also like to point out that people throw around the term ace far too freely. A prospect in the 26-75 range isn't typically viewed as a potential "ace" by actual scouts. A 50 grade on them typically means they project to be an average starter. MLB.com IMO is bad about this because they don't distinguish the fact that their overall grade appears to be ceiling based rather than a likely outcome. This is why fangraphs prospect stuff is generally a bit lower. For MLB.com that 26-75 range typically are 55's but that translates into meaning their ceiling is an above average starter. Long story short, if you're not a top 15 pitcher then you're not viewed as a potential "ace".

 

[Castor76]

My point has always been this. The Cubs got out of it what they at best could have expected. They didn't win a title. They did make it to the NLCS and 13 other teams in the NL can't say that. 3 teams that made the playoffs can't say that. You can scream the Theo overpaid, but he spent an arm that it was going to cost and a bat that had lessening value to the Cubs as an NL team when combined with what the Cubs already had. He spent an expendable asset. I can only presume that he's upset about Cease being in the deal.

When teams are in windows, they sacrifice the possible future for the probably now. Just look at the Yankees. They have over 60M tied up in two players for the next 5 years plus. That's more than 25% of the threshold. They have all that young star power coming up in arbitration and their pitching staff will see some FA after this season. So they decided to go all in for the next couple of year and then start making some hard choices the price tags go up. They spent their 3-4 from now to have the best chance this season and maybe next.

 

[TL1961]

Irrelevant. The point was waiting reduced the cost. That was the point.

What happened? He pitched like crap in NY and they tried to alter his approach if I recall correctly.

After he moved to Cinn he went right back to what he was.

So just a bad match up.

But of course you didn't care about the details right or the point of the post. You decided to be a dick instead. Good one.

Yep. And getting 11 starts vs 14 reduces the value.

It’s poker. Wait and hope to get a guy cheaper. But if you don’t, you’ve lost the season.

How did Yanks do in 2017 postseason?

 

[CSF77]

The difference between his level of play in the two cities is that he is unable to handle the pressure of a big market. I think that has been detailed in the media

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Yankees



Sonny Gray blames Yankees struggles on 'sh-tty' pitch they made him throw
"They wanted me to be Tanaka and I'm way different from him."
Mar 5, 2019 | 8:02PM

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(Adam Hunger)
As promised by GM Brian Cashman, the Yankees parted ways with RHP Sonny Gray this offseason as his short tenure in New York didn't pan out the way both sides believed it could have. Gray racked up a 4.90 ERA in 2018, with the Yankees forcing him to the bullpen toward the end of the season as he couldn't figure out his struggles on the mound.
But Gray took this offseason to regroup and learn what exactly went wrong with the Bombers, and he thinks he knows why he wasn't the effective pitcher he has been since breaking into the league in 2013.
The Yankees were forcing Gray to throw a slider -- a pitch he wasn't comfortable with.
"They love sliders," Gray told The Athletic's Eno Sarris. "Sliders are a great pitch. The numbers say slider is a good pitch, but you might not realize how many s--tty counts you're getting in while throwing all those sliders. They wanted me to be [Masahiro] Tanaka and I'm way different from him."
Gray goes on to say how he would find himself behind in the count 2-0, but sliders were still called for him to throw. He had good break on the pitch, but he had no control over where it would end up on the plate.
So, as Gray tried to correct that issue with the pitch, it only wound up being a spinner in the middle of the zone which looks like a beach ball to the hitter.
"When I try to throw sliders for a strike, I get around it and it's just a s--tty spinning pitch," he explained. "I don't know how people throw sliders for strikes that are still tight, good pitches. I'm at 2-0 and I'm throwing a slider, and either I'm throwing a s--tty slider in the zone, or I'm yanking it into the dirt and it's 3-0 and I"m screwed either way."
Gray's worst outings seemed to have come at Yankee Stadium, too. He collected a brutal 6.98 ERA in the Bronx in 2018, and he went to the Yankees' coaching staff asking what they thought the issues were.
"Am I nuts?," he asked. "Do you see a difference? What's the difference? They said, 'No, you've just been unlucky.' I was like, 'That's bulls--t.' "