5 Thoughts and Observations on Dolphins-Bears

[Rory Sparrow]

Let me ask you what you would have done. Would you have ran it if you were the Vikings? Your answer should have nothing to do with the previous penalty. You have 1 play from the 36, what do you do?

The Bears didn't have 1 play from the 36, they had at least 3 plays from the 40, possibly more if they convert a first down or go for it on 4th.

 

[didshereallysaythat]

1 play. Run it.
3 plays, I'm throwing on first down. Possibly 2nd.

So if the Bears would have started at the 35 1st and 10 and had 2 incompletions, you would have ran it on 3rd and 10 from the 35?

 

[WindyCity]

Agreed on Miami. There are not a good D.

I look at it though as far as progression of Trubisky. He was given a free cupcake at home vs the Bucs and he took it. Great job! Now it's time to keep it going into the next week. Against Miami (who has a better defense than Tampa but still not strong), he played well overall and it was on the road. Good job! Now let's keep it up against New England who has a better defense than Miami.

Based on ppg the Dolphins are a slightly above average defense.

I also do not think that the Patriots are a better defense than Miami. Miami has few ppg allowed and a negligible difference in yards per game.

Miami has more sacks, 10 to NE 7, more takeaways 14 to New Englands 12

 

[remydat]

Yes, it was the opposite of "didshe's" characterization. Nagy should have used his timeouts sooner to ensure Trubisky would get a legit opportunity to score, be it for a tie or for a win in regulation. He kind of did the worst of both worlds...not using his timeouts right away, but eventually callling timeout to give Miami some extra time. Chicago gained nothing by Nagy calling timeout with 40 seconds left.

Another instance of his playing scared. The dude really is nothing like the aggressive coaches like Pederson in crunch time. Turns into John Fox's mini me.

 

[WindyCity]

So if the Bears would have started at the 35 1st and 10 and had 2 incompletions, you would have ran it on 3rd and 10 from the 35?

If I am comfortable with a 50 yard field goal attempt I am passing 2 plays and running on 1, unless I am getting a run look I cannot pass up.

You have to trust your QB won't take a sack and with Trubisky's mobility and the protection the Bears have been providing the Bears should have been more comfortable throwing the ball.

 

[FirstTimer]

So if the Bears would have started at the 35 1st and 10 and had 2 incompletions, you would have ran it on 3rd and 10 from the 35?

Maybe. Depends on a lot. Could have come out with a "check with me" depending on numbers, advantages etc. Unless we got something really advantageous I likely run but that's only after taking at least one shot(perhaps 2) throwing. Pretty standard.

I can't really think of a time where a team ran three times to set up a 53 yard FG.

 

[remydat]

Then he is a terrible kicker. That is another issue in and of itself.

It is not another issue in and of itself because Nagy should know the stats and thus that is all the more reason to note settle for a 53 yard FG.

Do you think coaches call plays without thinking about their personnel? If Nagy had a more reliable kicker then you could maybe squint to see his logic but he sat on the ball when his kicker is Cody Parkey.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

I can't really think of a time where a team ran three times to set up a 53 yard FG.

I recall several instances of this exact thing happening...I'm just a bit foggy on the specifics. Check back later.

 

[didshereallysaythat]

Based on ppg the Dolphins are a slightly above average defense.

I also do not think that the Patriots are a better defense than Miami. Miami has few ppg allowed and a negligible difference in yards per game.

Miami has more sacks, 10 to NE 7, more takeaways 14 to New Englands 12

Eh, Patriots scare me more with Belichick. Especially coming off playing KCs scheme.

 

[WindyCity]

Another instance of his playing scared. The dude really is nothing like the aggressive coaches like Pederson in crunch time. Turns into John Fox's mini me.

I disagree. Pederson really earned that reputation in the playoffs, but even last week he settled for long field goals and was not as aggressive as I think many have come to expect.

Where they are more aggressive is early in the game on 4th downs around the 40 and near the goal line.

For the most part this was the first time where he really went into a shell for me. In GB he was very aggressive late in the game, in fact he went for the dagger on 3rd and 2 with the Cohen wheel route that Trubisky missed.

If anything in the loses he has put too much faith in his defense.

 

[remydat]

Agreed on Miami. There are not a good D.

I look at it though as far as progression of Trubisky. He was given a free cupcake at home vs the Bucs and he took it. Great job! Now it's time to keep it going into the next week. Against Miami (who has a better defense than Tampa but still not strong), he played well overall and it was on the road. Good job! Now let's keep it up against New England who has a better defense than Miami.

Again, my comment was not about Trubs. I simply noted that Miami is not really a good D because a few people were acting like they are. They simply get a lot of Ints. Otherwise, they give up a lot of yards.

Based on ppg the Dolphins are a slightly above average defense.

I also do not think that the Patriots are a better defense than Miami. Miami has few ppg allowed and a negligible difference in yards per game.

Miami has more sacks, 10 to NE 7, more takeaways 14 to New Englands 12

No they are not. There are only 32 teams in the NFL and they sit at 17th in points. So based on points they are pretty much average. Based on yards they are well below average. Their points are surprised because of the fact they get Ints just like they did on the Trub pick.

 

[WindyCity]

Eh, Patriots scare me more with Belichick. Especially coming off playing KCs scheme.

Getting torched by the similar scheme.

In fact the 3 worst NE defensive performances of the last 5 years have come at the hands of Andy Ried.

 

[WindyCity]

Again, my comment was not about Trubs. I simply noted that Miami is not really a good D because a few people were acting like they are. They simply get a lot of Ints. Otherwise, they give up a lot of yards.

I like to look at whether the offense hung more points on the defense than the ppg average.

To me this tells me whether they did more than the average other teams did against that defense. If you are consistently causing the opposing defenses ppg to rise that is a positive. Under John Fox teams ppg would drop a couple points after playing the Bears, we were the best thing to happen to those defenses.

Miami is a 24 ppg defense, which is middle of the pack, the Bears put 28 points on them on the road which is a pretty positive performance based on the defense.

But I agree Miami is not a top 10 unit.

 

[didshereallysaythat]

Maybe. Depends on a lot. Could have come out with a "check with me" depending on numbers, advantages etc. Unless we got something really advantageous I likely run but that's only after taking at least one shot(perhaps 2) throwing. Pretty standard.

I can't really think of a time where a team ran three times to set up a 53 yard FG.

Ok so that is your issue. Running 3 times in a row. My issue is only about running on 3rd down because I want to get a 1st down as it all but guarantees the clock runs out if they miss. I don't trust Parkey (for obvious reasons).

Can I recall a SPECIFIC moment where a team ran 3 times to setup a 53 yard FG? No. I would be willing to bet my entire year's salary though that a team has ran the ball 3 straight times (thinking they would get a 1st to run down the clock) and having to settle for a 50+ yard FG in OT. I have seen teams due ultra conservative plays all the time where I SMH. For Rory to say that it was unprecedented to me is hyperbole.

 

[remydat]

I disagree. Pederson really earned that reputation in the playoffs, but even last week he settled for long field goals and was not as aggressive as I think many have come to expect.

Where they are more aggressive is early in the game on 4th downs around the 40 and near the goal line.

For the most part this was the first time where he really went into a shell for me. In GB he was very aggressive late in the game, in fact he went for the dagger on 3rd and 2 with the Cohen wheel route that Trubisky missed.

If anything in the loses he has put too much faith in his defense.

Nope he went into a shell in the GB game as well. He only became aggressive when he no longer had a choice.

 

[didshereallysaythat]

Getting torched by the similar scheme.

In fact the 3 worst NE defensive performances of the last 5 years have come at the hands of Andy Ried.

I hope you are right.

 

[remydat]

I like to look at whether the offense hung more points on the defense than the ppg average.

To me this tells me whether they did more than the average other teams did against that defense. If you are consistently causing the opposing defenses ppg to rise that is a positive. Under John Fox teams ppg would drop a couple points after playing the Bears, we were the best thing to happen to those defenses.

Miami is a 24 ppg defense, which is middle of the pack, the Bears put 28 points on them on the road which is a pretty positive performance based on the defense.

But I agree Miami is not a top 10 unit.

I am not saying it wasn't a good overall performance by the Offense. I am simply challenging the notion they are a good D.

 

[WindyCity]

Maybe. Depends on a lot. Could have come out with a "check with me" depending on numbers, advantages etc. Unless we got something really advantageous I likely run but that's only after taking at least one shot(perhaps 2) throwing. Pretty standard.

I can't really think of a time where a team ran three times to set up a 53 yard FG.

I think not using Trubisky's legs was a huge mistake in that final 3 plays. He had been super productive on designed runs and on breaking the pocket.

I think people underestimate that he is a legit athlete and weapon with the ball in his hands. Not a good running QB, but a real weapon, and if you get him on the move he can create yards even on a broken play.

 

[WindyCity]

Nope he went into a shell in the GB game as well. He only became aggressive when he no longer had a choice.

Agree on the 2nd half play calling in general.

I was talking about the specific late game scenario.

 

[didshereallysaythat]

It is not another issue in and of itself because Nagy should know the stats and thus that is all the more reason to note settle for a 53 yard FG.

Do you think coaches call plays without thinking about their personnel? If Nagy had a more reliable kicker then you could maybe squint to see his logic but he sat on the ball when his kicker is Cody Parkey.

I agree. I just like the idea of getting in a position where a miss means you tie. That's why I like the running plays on 1st and 2nd down to keep the clock running. Especially since it was working the previous plays.