5 Thoughts and Observations on Dolphins-Bears

[didshereallysaythat]

Dolphins still had a timeout left, and even if Bears get 1st down, the game is still tied and the Bears are still at the tip of Parkey's range.

Instead of all this beating around the bush and citing Dave Wannstedt's thoughts...how about you just name the teams that have stalled out to setup a 53-yard FG attempt, which was your original claim?

Ok.. let's say they get the 1st down on a pass for 5 yards. First down marker was the 30. Now you are at a 48 yard kick if you get no more yards. It's 1st down at the 2 minute warning. Now you run 3 more times and make them call their final timeout. 5 seconds per play and 40 seconds on the 2 downs they can't use a timeout on. That is 5+5+5+40+40 = 95 seconds or 1:35 off the game clock. You are down to 25 seconds on the FG attempt. If they just get 2-3 yards making it a 45 yard kick, that is a much higher percentage than 53. Without checking, I bet he makes that 85% of the time if not higher. Even if he misses, they have the ball at their own 35 yard line with less than 20 seconds left and no timeouts. They have a hail mary at best.

So like I said, the 1st and 2nd down runs were fine in that situation because A) running the ball was working! and B) it takes time off the clock to the point where 1 more 1st down gets you in a near win or tie scenario.

 

[remydat]

This. Not enough people saying this. Too many blame the refs for the INT because of the ticky tacky OPI.

I like Mitch. I like how he is proving his growth and development, but the refs didn't send a devil to his shoulder and say "Now try to get that TD back in ONE play. Force it in there; and show the refs how you can STILL do it anyway! Show them ALL!"

That was his mistake, and I am happy to have the kid make those mistakes, learn and keep learning. That one instance of (understandable) emotion within that throw can undo him. IMO he is watching tape and saying "I threw that ball with a very bad emotion attached. That I can never do again."

The best thing about it which Nagy likes to point out is the kid forgot about it and still played well after and threw a TD and probably would have won the game had Nagy let him try.

Contrast that with Cutler who dumb shit like that would usually result in it snowballing out of control.

 

[didshereallysaythat]

I wouldn't say they were really "setting" anything up there. They were more trying to mitigate the damage after the penalty. A sack completely takes you out of FG range there. With the Bears..not so much...depends on the pass call though, the drop etc.

A sack absolutely takes the Bears out of FG range too... The Vikings had 3rd down at the 36 and the Bears had it at the 35. 1 yard of difference...

Forget the yards to gain for the 1st. They want to get a closer kick. A 54 yard kick vs a 52 yard kick isn't that much difference. A substantial difference would only occur on a pass there by the Vikings.

Atleast with the Bears, there is a chance you can get the 1st down running on 3rd and 4. I disagree with the likelihood of that, but it was what he was playing for.

 

[FirstTimer]

Ok.. let's say they get the 1st down on a pass for 5 yards. First down marker was the 30. Now you are at a 48 yard kick if you get no more yards. It's 1st down at the 2 minute warning. Now you run 3 more times and make them call their final timeout. 5 seconds per play and 40 seconds on the 2 downs they can't use a timeout on. That is 5+5+5+40+40 = 95 seconds or 1:35 off the game clock. You are down to 25 seconds on the FG attempt. If they just get 2-3 yards makingit a 45 yard kick, that is a much higher percentage than 53. Without checking, I bet he makes that 85% of the time if not higher. Even if he misses, they have the ball at their own 35 yard line with less than 20 seconds left and no timeouts. They have a hail mary at best.

So like I said, the 1st and 2nd down runs were fine in that situation because A) running the ball was working! and B) it takes time off the clock to the point where 1 more 1st down gets you in a near win or tie scenario.

Bolded should be included in all future posts.

Cody Parkey for his career from 40-49 yards is 21 of 31. Or 67.7%.

This year, he is 75% from that range.

 

[bearsfootball516]

Rory, no offense, but you are as stupid as Laurence Holmes on 670. He thought it was dumb of Nagy to call timeout when the Dolphins had 4th down at the Bears 41 with 40 seconds to go in regulation. His quote (I am paraphrasing) from last night was "Why would you call timeout there? Let them try a long FG. Even if they make it, you end up with better field position to have Trubisky go down and score". Uhh, dumbass... If he doesn't call timeout, the Dolphins take the clock down to 3 seconds. If they make the 58 yard FG, the fucking game is over! Calling timeout makes them punt because they can't risk a miss on a low percentage kick with 40 seconds left on the clock. There is no risk of missing if it is the last fucking play.

I bet you thought the exact same thing as him, lol.

In regards to that, I was actually pissed that Nagy let so much time run off the clock. When the 3rd down play ended, there was about 1:05 left on the clock, and he let 25 seconds burn until he used a timeout at 40. If Miami punts the ball out of the end zone, now you have about 55 seconds to get into field goal range...which is hard, but possible. Letting so much time run off the clock before using the timeout basically sealed any chance of getting into field goal range.

 

[FirstTimer]

A sack absolutely takes the Bears out of FG range too... The Vikings had 3rd down at the 36 and the Bears had it at the 35. 1 yard of difference...

Forget the yards to gain for the 1st. They want to get a closer kick. A 54 yard kick vs a 52 yard kick isn't that much difference. A substantial difference would only occur on a pass there by the Vikings.

Atleast with the Bears, there is a chance you can get the 1st down running on 3rd and 4. I disagree with the likelihood of that, but it was what he was playing for.

...Point was the Vikings were trying to mitigate damage after losing 15 yards.

Bears went in the tank for three plays rather than continue pushing the envelope after a 20 yard gain.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

Rory, no offense, but you are as stupid as Laurence Holmes on 670. He thought it was dumb of Nagy to call timeout when the Dolphins had 4th down at the Bears 41 with 40 seconds to go in regulation. His quote (I am paraphrasing) from last night was "Why would you call timeout there? Let them try a long FG. Even if they make it, you end up with better field position to have Trubisky go down and score". Uhh, dumbass... If he doesn't call timeout, the Dolphins take the clock down to 3 seconds. If they make the 58 yard FG, the fucking game is over! Calling timeout makes them punt because they can't risk a miss on a low percentage kick with 40 seconds left on the clock. There is no risk of missing if it is the last fucking play.

I bet you thought the exact same thing as him, lol.

Wow...not sure how to even respond to this...other than to say "please cite the instances where teams stalled out to set up a 53-yard FG".

 

[Rory Sparrow]

A sack absolutely takes the Bears out of FG range too... The Vikings had 3rd down at the 36 and the Bears had it at the 35. 1 yard of difference...

Bears ran up the middle on 1st and 2nd down, tho

 

[remydat]

Just like QB play, passer rating is still the best overall indicator as it includes INTs, yardage and TDs given up. If you want to focus on whatever portion of that has Mitch not look as good, you go right ahead, it's expected.

This has nothing to do with Mitch looking good or bad. They are a bad passing D.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/position/defense

This is the standard defensive stat sheet. Miami sits 25th in yards per game, 24th in passing yards, and 17th in points. The only reason they have a good passer rating is they have had more Ints and TDs with 11 vs 9. 11 Ints over 6 games is just under 2 a game. So all you are doing is essentially ignoring all other stats in favor of the 2 times a game that they intercept the ball.

So you are mistaken, I am looking a their total defensive contribution while you are essentially just looking at TD vs Int ratio it is obvious if anyone has more Ints than TDs, their passer rating would be terrible. The reality is teams march up and down the field on Miami throwing the ball and then on occasion like Mitch on Sunday, they throw a pick. That doesn't change the fact the Dolphins let them march up and down the field.

In essence, the Dolphins are like Kyle Fuller on Sunday. Fuller had 2 big interceptions but otherwise got fucking shredding as DaBear pointed out.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

In regards to that, I was actually pissed that Nagy let so much time run off the clock. When the 3rd down play ended, there was about 1:05 left on the clock, and he let 25 seconds burn until he used a timeout at 40. If Miami punts the ball out of the end zone, now you have about 55 seconds to get into field goal range...which is hard, but possible. Letting so much time run off the clock before using the timeout basically sealed any chance of getting into field goal range.

Yes, it was the opposite of "didshe's" characterization. Nagy should have used his timeouts sooner to ensure Trubisky would get a legit opportunity to score, be it for a tie or for a win in regulation. He kind of did the worst of both worlds...not using his timeouts right away, but eventually callling timeout to give Miami some extra time. Chicago gained nothing by Nagy calling timeout with 40 seconds left.

 

[didshereallysaythat]

Bolded should be included in all future posts.

Cody Parkey for his career from 40-49 yards is 21 of 31. Or 67.7%.

This year, he is 75% from that range.

Then he is a terrible kicker. That is another issue in and of itself.

 

[didshereallysaythat]

In regards to that, I was actually pissed that Nagy let so much time run off the clock. When the 3rd down play ended, there was about 1:05 left on the clock, and he let 25 seconds burn until he used a timeout at 40. If Miami punts the ball out of the end zone, now you have about 55 seconds to get into field goal range...which is hard, but possible. Letting so much time run off the clock before using the timeout basically sealed any chance of getting into field goal range.

Agreed. It was a rookie coach mistake. Atleast he caught it. Letting the clock run all the way down would have been a disaster.

 

[didshereallysaythat]

...Point was the Vikings were trying to mitigate damage after losing 15 yards.

Bears went in the tank for three plays rather than continue pushing the envelope after a 20 yard gain.

That is the mindset then. I forget that they just had a 38 yard kick called back. RIGHT NOW, the ball is at the 36 yard line and I have one play to get closer. What do I chose? A pass thank you.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

Then he is a terrible kicker. That is another issue in and of itself.

But its not really the issue at all. Even teams with the greatest kickers ever like Morten Andersen have never stalled out on offense to setup a 53-yard FG attempt. It was stupid regardless of Parkey being the kicker, and made even more stupid by the fact that missing the FG flipped the field for the opposing team in a sudden-death situation.

 

[FirstTimer]

Then he is a terrible kicker. That is another issue in and of itself.

So..that even makes the comparison to the Vikings worse. Blair Walsh is/was a very good kicker. Parkey isn't.

I guess I'm not seeing the comparison here. Vikings ran one play after losing 15 yards to mitigate damage on a GW kick attempt by a very good kicker.

Bears went in the tank for three plays to set up a 53 yard attempt by a terrible kicker.

 

[didshereallysaythat]

This has nothing to do with Mitch looking good or bad. They are a bad passing D.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/position/defense

This is the standard defensive stat sheet. Miami sits 25th in yards per game, 24th in passing yards, and 17th in points. The only reason hey have a good passer rating is they have had more Ints and TDs with 11 vs 9. 11 Ints over 6 games is just under 2 a game. So all you are doing is essentially ignoring all other stats in favor of the 2 times a game that they intercept the ball.

So you are mistaken, I am looking a their total defensive contribution while you are essentially just looking at TD vs Int ratio it is obvious if anyone has more Ints than TDs, their passer rating would be terrible. The reality is teams march up and down the field on Miami throwing the ball and then on occasion like Mitch on Sunday, they throw a pick. That doesn't change the fact the Dolphins let them march up and down the field.

Agreed on Miami. There are not a good D.

I look at it though as far as progression of Trubisky. He was given a free cupcake at home vs the Bucs and he took it. Great job! Now it's time to keep it going into the next week. Against Miami (who has a better defense than Tampa but still not strong), he played well overall and it was on the road. Good job! Now let's keep it up against New England who has a better defense than Miami.

 

[didshereallysaythat]

So..that even makes the comparison to the Vikings worse. Blair Walsh is/was a very good kicker. Parkey isn't.

I guess I'm not seeing the comparison here. Vikings ran one play after losing 15 yards to mitigate damage on a GW kick attempt by a very good kicker.

Bears went in the tank for three plays to set up a 53 yard attempt by a terrible kicker.

Let me ask you what you would have done. Would you have ran it if you were the Vikings? Your answer should have nothing to do with the previous penalty. You have 1 play from the 36, what do you do?

 

[FirstTimer]

That is the mindset then. I forget that they just had a 38 yard kick called back. RIGHT NOW, the ball is at the 36 yard line and I have one play to get closer. What do I chose? A pass thank you.

I think the point is the mindset sucked.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

I have seen teams make the mistake of playing conservative to rely on a long 50+ yard FG.

Yo!

 

[FirstTimer]

Let me ask you what you would have done. Would you have ran it if you were the Vikings? Your answer should have nothing to do with the previous penalty. You have 1 play from the 36, what do you do?

1 play. Run it.
3 plays, I'm throwing on first down. Possibly 2nd.