All purpose Garza/Dempster trade thread

[Rice Cube]

You can also compare the three in question (Garza, Gio, Latos) not just by their aggregate stats, their 2011 seasons, etc, but by how they did by age.

Matt Garza Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

Gio Gonzalez Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

Mat Latos Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

You can look at it yourself. But basically, if all things are equal, you give up more for the guys who are less expensive, younger, and have more years of club control left.

 

[dabynsky]

No way Turner is worth more than Archer, Lee, and Guyer. In reality will Turner be worth more than those 3, hell yeah. But when Theo is negotiating, he's going to say look we gave up 3 top 10's for Garza. We're going to be getting at least 2 top 10's back from them.

Sure, they have more club years, but Garza is a better pitcher than both of them. So while yes, Garza's value is lesser, he's actually a better pitcher. And if you think for a second that Theo isn't going to say to Dombrowski, hey look what Gio and Latos went for, you're crazy.

But you're equally crazy if Dombrowski isn't going to counter with the age and amount of club control makes them more valuable.

 

[Rice Cube]

But you're equally crazy if Dombrowski isn't going to counter with the age and amount of club control makes them more valuable.

Maybe they're hoping Detroit suffers from Walt Jocketty syndrome.

 

[Captain Obvious]

Turner is a top-25 prospect (#21 pre-2011, probably higher ranked now). The package Cubs gave up for Garza had a bunch of good guys, but Archer was highest at #27 before 2011, HJ Lee was at #92. Guyer wasn't ranked. So in a sense dabynsky was correct. The Cubs' top 10 was unfortunately not all that good compared to some other organization's top 10s so you cannot directly compare them that way.

21 and 27 are pretty damn close. The Rays also got 4 other pieces for Garza and some change. I think it's silly to think that Garza is worth just Turner. Turner is not guarantee. He's a prospect. Garza essentially is a guarantee. Turner's ceiling basically is what Garza is right now. No way in hell they are equals.

 

[Captain Obvious]

I'm not saying that what the Cubs are going to get is going to be equal to what the Padres and A's got. I'm saying that Garza is worth at least two top 10 prospects from the DET system. He's certainly worth more than just Turner.

 

[Rice Cube]

21 and 27 are pretty damn close. The Rays also got 4 other pieces for Garza and some change. I think it's silly to think that Garza is worth just Turner. Turner is not guarantee. He's a prospect. Garza essentially is a guarantee. Turner's ceiling basically is what Garza is right now. No way in hell they are equals.

In business, the prospect has a dollar value and Garza also has a dollar value. If you take age and cost control into account they're approximately equal. Whether the Tigers give more or not depends on how desperate they are. If the Cubs decide that they want to swindle somebody they just won't trade Garza. If there's multiple teams fighting over him, then the return may be greater, but in a vacuum, Matt Garza straight up for a Grade A prospect is about right.

Matt Garza was a prospect once, and there are no guarantees in baseball. You look at past performance and future projections and hope for the best.

 

[dabynsky]

Maybe they're hoping Detroit suffers from Walt Jocketty syndrome.

I would make fun of him and his never met a veteran he didn't like approach if it hasn't been more successful than my team's results for the past fifteen years.

 

[Rice Cube]

I would make fun of him and his never met a veteran he didn't like approach if it hasn't been more successful than my team's results for the past fifteen years.

Sometimes you just get super lucky :lol: Brian Sabean anyone?

 

[dabynsky]

21 and 27 are pretty damn close. The Rays also got 4 other pieces for Garza and some change. I think it's silly to think that Garza is worth just Turner. Turner is not guarantee. He's a prospect. Garza essentially is a guarantee. Turner's ceiling basically is what Garza is right now. No way in hell they are equals.

Yes but we are comparing their pre 2011 values. Turner's value is likely to be higher than 21 at this point. Turner is a much, much better prospect than anything the Cubs have had in years (Prior really).

 

[dabynsky]

Sometimes you just get super lucky :lol: Brian Sabean anyone?

Despite the ring, I am very glad that man isn't in charge of my team's front office. That said Jocketty's body of work is pretty damn impressive even though I dislike the approach he's taken.

 

[Rice Cube]

I think I'd be happy with just Jacob Turner in return even if most Cubs fans think we got swindled. If the Theo brigade can snag more back, it's an epic win. I wouldn't expect that though. At this point I think there are three things that can happen:

1. Theo gets Jacob Turner back

2. Theo gets Turner + x number of prospects (various grades back)

3. If 2. does not happen, Theo keeps Garza and tries to sign him to an extension

They likely just start the negotiations with Turner + x number of prospects and then scale it back.

 

[Rice Cube]

Despite the ring, I am very glad that man isn't in charge of my team's front office. That said Jocketty's body of work is pretty damn impressive even though I dislike the approach he's taken.

Jocketty scouting > your lame spreadsheets

 

[dabynsky]

Jocketty scouting > your lame spreadsheets

Is that you fisch?

 

[Rice Cube]

Yes but we are comparing their pre 2011 values. Turner's value is likely to be higher than 21 at this point. Turner is a much, much better prospect than anything the Cubs have had in years (Prior really).

There's got to be a study you can Google somewhere that shows the value of a prospect at each ranking...then you can adjust for years of club control etc to see about how fair the trade will be.

 

[waldo7239117]

Jacob Turner and Andy Oliver for Garza?

 

[Rice Cube]

Jacob Turner and Andy Oliver for Garza?

Oliver was #87 last year in the prospect rankings so that might be possible.

 

[Captain Obvious]

Turner, Oliver, and a low level upside spec I can dig.

 

[waldo7239117]

If that were to happen... 3 pitchers in starting rotation will be 24, 24 and 20. Then if the Cubs trade Marmol, may pick up another one.

 

[waldo7239117]

Oliver was #87 last year in the prospect rankings so that might be possible.

Would you do that?

 

[Rice Cube]

Would you do that?

Oh yeah, I'd trade Garza to get Turner and Oliver back. The question should be whether the Tigers think Garza is worth that trade.