All Things Carlos Zambrano Discussion Thread

[CODE_BLUE56]

frankly i really dont hope that the cubs have to pay upwards of 19 mil to get a guy like cj wilson..who,ya, aint too shabby a pitcher but definitely does not deserve that...you listed some of the aces and their per years...19 mil is pretty close to that..and wilson is not an ace..

he's not a bad pitcher..but an ace? god no

i just hope that if we get CJ..it isnt another of those situations that later on we are talking about getting rid of him because he isnt living up to his giant contract..it just seems like a cycle

 

[dabynsky]

As for the whole CJ Wilson stuff, I think that he would be nice to have, but let's think about this for a minute. Do we really want to pay a pitcher that is 31 over 15 million dollars a year? I know that I don't. It's those kinds of contracts, that got this team into a whole world of hurt. Z and Soriano's contracts have really put this team into a bind. I only want to give a big contract to a player who can be a 6 WAR player. CJ Wilson is a 4 WAR player at best. Maybe in the NL Central, he might be able to get close to a 5 WAR player, but that's just not enough to warrant 15+ million. If you can get him for less, then by all means, go for it. Although I don't want it more than 4 years, because that will come back to bite us in the ass.

The per year salary isn't what has hurt the Cubs. It has been the length of these deals. And that is the beauty of going after CJ Wilson. Yes he is 31 years old, but the mileage on his arm is way less than a usual 31 year old starter. He has thrown a third or less innings of guys the same age as him in CC, Zambrano, etc. Add on top of that right now teams won't go beyond 5 years on a deal after the way the Zito deal blew up on the Giants. CJ Wilson is probably going to get above 15 million per year but it is going to be a 3 or 4 year deal most likely. If Z's money is coming off the books and I can get Wilson for a little bit less than that for 3-4 years I would be very happy.

 

[dabynsky]

frankly i really dont hope that the cubs have to pay upwards of 19 mil to get a guy like cj wilson..who,ya, aint too shabby a pitcher but definitely does not deserve that...you listed some of the aces and their per years...19 mil is pretty close to that..and wilson is not an ace..

he's not a bad pitcher..but an ace? god no

i just hope that if we get CJ..it isnt another of those situations that later on we are talking about getting rid of him because he isnt living up to his giant contract..it just seems like a cycle

The only one who is close is Halladay who didn't hit the open market. CC's dela was signed a while ago and had an opt out clause. Lee was last year on the open market and he got 24 million. The market is trending back up on pitchers in terms of per year (while down on years offered). I don't know why you guys think that CJ Wilson is going to get less than 15 million next year. He is putting up numbers in the vicinity of Oswalt and Buehrle who both are in the 14 million range right now.

 

[CODE_BLUE56]

The only one who is close is Halladay who didn't hit the open market. CC's dela was signed a while ago and had an opt out clause. Lee was last year on the open market and he got 30 million. The market is trending back up on pitchers in terms of per year (while down on years offered). I don't know why you guys think that CJ Wilson is going to get less than 15 million next year. He is putting up numbers in the vicinity of Oswalt and Buehrle who both are in the 14 million range right now.

i dont...i just want him to:shrug:

he's a good pitcher and i want him..but i dont want it to be another veteran overpayed problem down the road

atleast his surprising small number of innings at 31 in the majors is promising..but that still doesnt mean his body wont start breaking down as he ages(especially his arm as a pitcher)

we'll just see

 

[dabynsky]

i dont...i just want him to:shrug:

he's a good pitcher and i want him..but i dont want it to be another veteran overpayed problem down the road

atleast his surprising small number of innings at 31 in the majors is promising..but that still doesnt mean his body wont start breaking down as he ages(especially his arm as a pitcher)

we'll just see

There is risk whenever you sign a free agent because almost always their peak years are behind them physically and you have to overpay given the nature of the economics of baseball. I just think with all the evidence available that CJ Wilson in that 15-17 million range for 4 years is a better gamble than Fielder or Pujols for 7 or 8 at well over 20 million per.

 

[USCChiFan]

So once 30 days up what do Cubs do?

I'm guessing that he'll be put on the restricted list

 

[brett05]

The Cubs are going to have to pay Z. He's going to win if he pursues

As for CJ can we get a list of the top five pitchers based on salary ignoring a Zito and Hampton (he might still be on the books)

 

[Jntg4]

The part where we were the best team in baseball.



Well.... Zimmerman isn't healthy and I agree, I would take Panda as well. I just looked at the qualified list of players. My bad. Regardless, I still want Rami on this team next year.

Z isn't worth the contract and if you can get rid of the contract, you do it.

As for the whole CJ Wilson stuff, I think that he would be nice to have, but let's think about this for a minute. Do we really want to pay a pitcher that is 31 over 15 million dollars a year? I know that I don't. It's those kinds of contracts, that got this team into a whole world of hurt. Z and Soriano's contracts have really put this team into a bind. I only want to give a big contract to a player who can be a 6 WAR player. CJ Wilson is a 4 WAR player at best. Maybe in the NL Central, he might be able to get close to a 5 WAR player, but that's just not enough to warrant 15+ million. If you can get him for less, then by all means, go for it. Although I don't want it more than 4 years, because that will come back to bite us in the ass.

We were NOT the best team in baseball in 2008. We didn't have the best record and weren't the world champions. Though it could be argued that the 97 win Cubs were better than the 100 win Angels, but I'm not quite sure about that.

 

[brett05]

Only Cc, Doc, and Santana earn more than 19 mil in 2011

List of highest paid Major League Baseball players

 

[Uman85]

The Cubs are going to have to pay Z. He's going to win if he pursues

As for CJ can we get a list of the top five pitchers based on salary ignoring a Zito and Hampton (he might still be on the books)

1) Sabathia - $24.2 mil
2) Santana - $21.6 mil
3) Halladay - $20 mil
4) Zambrano - $18.8 mil
5) Beckett - $17 mil

 

[dabynsky]

The Cubs are going to have to pay Z. He's going to win if he pursues

As for CJ can we get a list of the top five pitchers based on salary ignoring a Zito and Hampton (he might still be on the books)

I know that 19 million would be number 5 in terms of top 5 paid SP. However, that is not the point. Look at what top 5 pitchers are being paid Halladay (signed an extension before going on the open market) 20 million, CC Sabathia (signed a deal three years ago!) 23 million, and Cliff Lee is paid 24 million per year (though how you want to figure that is weird since he has a 12.5 million or so buy out on the I think 26 million team option on the last year). The only guys that are currently top 5 SPs that aren't making over 20 million are guys that have never hit free agency (Verlander and Hernadez for example).

 

[dabynsky]

Exaclty, the point is that to get a top 5 SP you have to pay more than 19 million today. Just because that would be 5th in salary doesn't make that what it cost to get that caliber of player.

And if you've read the posts I've made I admit that 19 million is overpaying. I would guess that 15 million is more the value compared to similar pitchers with inflation. However, in a weak free agency class I wouldn't be surprised for that number to be higher.

 

[cubsneedmiracle]

Ehh

Time to pursue a move.

 

[dabynsky]

Ehh

Time to pursue a move.

What the return of Casey Coleman doesn't excite you?

 

[CODE_BLUE56]

There is risk whenever you sign a free agent because almost always their peak years are behind them physically and you have to overpay given the nature of the economics of baseball. I just think with all the evidence available that CJ Wilson in that 15-17 million range for 4 years is a better gamble than Fielder or Pujols for 7 or 8 at well over 20 million per.

ya i guess the risk of free agency as well as amount of money that is invested into it..is just the nature of supply and demand in the baseball market as well as other things..

it does support another point i made on another thread that the foundation of a team should be built on the farm system rather than free agents .UNLESS you are a financially stable big market team such as NY..then having good prospects should arguably be the first priority

Are you suggesting in your couple of previous posts that CJ is a top 5 pitcher(or am i comprehending that wrong?)

He is an impressive pitcher no doubt(good K/BB ratio..relatively low ERA)

but i do not think he is on the level of a Halladay,Hernandez,or others you have noted

for one thing, Wilson is NOT an ace...frankly, i dont see much evidence to suggest that(this is only his second or third season getting a front rotation amount starts)

that doesnt mean he cant come into the cubs organization and pitch well for us(but my point is we shouldnt overpay for him..i think another pro argument you can make for wilson is the fact that he pitched in the AL)

We were NOT the best team in baseball in 2008. We didn't have the best record and weren't the world champions. Though it could be argued that the 97 win Cubs were better than the 100 win Angels, but I'm not quite sure about that.

hmmm interesting...didnt they not make or win the world series either?

neither of team even made it past the first round

it goes to show that because of the way baseball is structured(relying on pitching which teams like the dodgers and sox had that year as well as batting streaks)...that it is not easy by any stretch to win the world series..EVEN if you are one of the eight teams to make the playoffs AND have the best record

whether or not the season is a failure because the team does not do well in the playoffs is completely subjective imo

 

[dabynsky]

Oh god no am I not suggesting that CJ Wilson is a top 5 pitcher. What I am disputing is that you can offer a top 5 SP 19 million or less and get him in the open market today.

 

[brett05]

It all depends. Right now 19 gets you the forth spot. At this point cJ is > then Santana

CJ will get years before money

He's five for 15 per max in this market I feel. Five yes money maybe nit even 15

 

[dabynsky]

I think the years is less likey than the money to be honest. Teams are reluctant to even go 5 years anymore. Lets put the money in perspective, do you think Mark Buehrle is going to get more of less money than CJ Wilson this offseason? Buehrle is getting paid 14 million this year. Do you think he is going to get less money this offseason after the season he is having?

 

[JT77]

Zambrano Retires? Good Riddance

I'm glad Zambrano is leaving the Cubs. He's been more of a distraction than a contributor for the Cubs.

 

[brett05]

I think the years is less likey than the money to be honest. Teams are reluctant to even go 5 years anymore. Lets put the money in perspective, do you think Mark Buehrle is going to get more of less money than CJ Wilson this offseason? Buehrle is getting paid 14 million this year. Do you think he is going to get less money this offseason after the season he is having?

The only team Mark gets more from is the Sox
Mark might take 8-10 from the cards