Bill Walton: Don't Trade Noah For Anthony

[Capt. Serious]

The problem isn't how highly we rate Noah, the problem is how you rate Carmelo.

I think you're vastly over rating Carmelo based on his PPG. He scores a lot of points without being much more efficient than average. Sure, the Bulls have a bad offensive group that can't even be average, so that will help some, but you put him on the Bulls and while his 28 points a game will look impressive it wont translate to a heap more wins. He's not a great passer or three point shooter so he's not really someone who opens the game up for other players either.

The key to winning games isn't scoring, it's scoring more efficiently than your opponents. You add Carmelo and you help a little on our scoring efficiency. You take away Noah and you hurt us in holding the opponents efficiency down. The net result is about the same win total, plus or minus a few games. Certainly not championship contention.

Neither is this team with Noah. :rolling:

 

[Crystallas]

What the **** are you talking about? Go with Rami, and be well. Or not, I don't give a shit, just go somewhere where I won't feel infected by your complete lack of intelligence every time you hit "post reply".

Stop being a crybaby and grow a pair. Look, if I had a reason to inflate your ego some more, I would. But you are both wrong often, and you are disrespectful towards other individuals opinions. What the heck do you expect will happen? If you 're so intelligent, why can't you avoid getting butt-hurt?

I don't know if you came here, because there was a shortage of internet bullies on CCS, or what. When I first got here, I saw that you were a respected poster and sometimes you made a good point. Now, I'm pretty sure you just like picking fights over obsolete topics.

 

[Lefty]

Stop being a crybaby and grow a pair. Look, if I had a reason to inflate your ego some more, I would. But you are both wrong often, and you are disrespectful towards other individuals opinions. What the heck do you expect will happen? If you 're so intelligent, why can't you avoid getting butt-hurt?

I don't know if you came here, because there was a shortage of internet bullies on CCS, or what. When I first got here, I saw that you were a respected poster and sometimes you made a good point. Now, I'm pretty sure you just like picking fights over obsolete topics.

1) What have I been wrong about? Please, enlighten me.

2) I always make good points.

3) I am disrespectful to people only when they are guilty of being moronic and reveling in their idiocy. It just so happens that this happens quite a bit around here nowadays.

 

[Crystallas]

1) What have I been wrong about? Please, enlighten me.

2) I always make good points.

3) I am disrespectful to people only when they are guilty of being moronic and reveling in their idiocy. It just so happens that this happens quite a bit around here nowadays.

I don't know what you have been right about.

In your mind, maybe.

Then let them be moronic. If someone says something stupid, the next person isn't going to copy their stance. Big whoopdy doo.

 

[Shakes]

Neither is this team with Noah. :rolling:

Not saying it is, but my point is that swapping Noah and Carmelo is making a change just to make a change, and puts us in a worse position with salary flexibility (assuming Melo gets his 20 million a year extension). Far better off sitting on our pieces until we can get a steal.

 

[Lefty]

I don't know what you have been right about.

In your mind, maybe.

Then let them be moronic. If someone says something stupid, the next person isn't going to copy their stance. Big whoopdy doo.

 

[Shakes]

Disagree with that portion.

His TS% was a touch above 54% last year & for his career, which just above the league average. I'm not sure what metric you're using for efficiency to say you disagree.

 

[Lefty]

His TS% was a touch above 54% last year & for his career, which just above the league average. I'm not sure what metric you're using for efficiency to say you disagree.

Since 2005, Melo has had an Offensive Rating (points scored per 100 possessions, a measure of both volume and efficiency) above the league average in every season save for one. That was the 07-08 season, when Melo averaged 23.8 PP36, but the next-highest starter was Chauncey Billups at 18.2.

Is he one of the more efficient scorers out there? No. But he is still above-average, and we can expect to see that efficiency increase were he to be on a team with other legitimate scoring options like the Bulls, as he wouldn't have to shoulder as much of the load as he has done in Denver.

 

[TheStig]

Elton Brand was still a raw talent when he was with the Bulls. I'll take Noah, now, over Brand then. But I will grant you that he is the only one who even comes close.

And I strongly, strongly, strongly disagree with the idea of Ben Gordon being >Joakim Noah.

A very raw 20 and 10 player. Brand was better than Noah.

 

[Shakes]

Since 2005, Melo has had an Offensive Rating (points scored per 100 possessions, a measure of both volume and efficiency) above the league average in every season save for one. That was the 07-08 season, when Melo averaged 23.8 PP36, but the next-highest starter was Chauncey Billups at 18.2.

I wouldn't really use offensive rating as a stat to prove we need Carmelo given that he has the same career Offensive Rating as the guy he'd be replacing (107 each for him and Deng). Offensive Rating is a good team stat but it's garbage for individual players.

Is he one of the more efficient scorers out there? No. But he is still above-average, and we can expect to see that efficiency increase were he to be on a team with other legitimate scoring options like the Bulls, as he wouldn't have to shoulder as much of the load as he has done in Denver.

I said he's above average, I just don't expect he'd suddenly become more efficient on the Bulls. I fully expect teams will still feel safe cheating off Asik or Brewer. Yeah Rose and Boozer's defenders can't leave their man, but was anyone leaving Billups or Nene alone in Denver?

 

[Lefty]

I wouldn't really use offensive rating as a stat to prove we need Carmelo given that he has the same career Offensive Rating as the guy he'd be replacing (107 each for him and Deng).

I was using ORtg as a measure of efficiency for Melo, and when considering his usage rates and just looking subjectively at who he's had around him in Denver, I would consider it pretty good that he has been able to remain as efficient as he has been. Also, PER has Melo rated pretty well, with his career mark being 34% above league-average, and he's been about 42% above league-average in PER over the last 5 years, with last season being his best mark, when he was 48% above league-average. Deng, on the other hand, has put up his ORtg mark with usage rates significantly lower than Melo's, and his career PER mark is only 8% above league average.

So yes, strictly looking at ORtg, Deng and Melo are similar, but when you widen the view to look at their workload and other efficiency measures, Melo is by far the superior player, both in volume scoring and efficiency. What's more, I think Melo is unfairly knocked for his "lack" of efficiency, both because 1) people fail to consider his workload and who he generally has had around him and 2) they tend to measure him against the unbelievable greatness that is LeBron (career PER 78% better than league average, with the last two seasons being more than 100% better than average), which, while not unfair necessarily, leads to a lot of people ignoring that Melo is still well above the average.

Offensive Rating is a good team stat but it's garbage for individual players.

You're going to have to show your work (or someone else's, whatever) on that one before I'll buy into it.

I said he's above average, I just don't expect he'd suddenly become more efficient on the Bulls.

Ok, but that doesn't make it illogical to believe that he will, considering he will have decidedly better players around him.

I fully expect teams will still feel safe cheating off Asik or Brewer. Yeah Rose and Boozer's defenders can't leave their man, but was anyone leaving Billups or Nene alone in Denver?

I wouldn't know, but this doesn't mean that they were or were not, just that I don't know. And unless you watched a lot of Nuggets basketball over the last few years (not just the national games), you can't say one way or the other, either.

 

[Shakes]

Well it's kind of hard to find a comparison for Carmelo if you're going to put a usage restriction on it given he's got the 6th highest career usage.

If you're willing to put only a 25%+ usage restriction to widen the net a bit, here's some offensive rating comparisons (all in the 109-105 range, descending order):

Vince Carter
Paul Pierce
Shareef Abdur-Rahim
Stephon Marbury
Tracy McGrady
Alonzo Mourning
Tony Parker
Carmelo Anthony
Ben Gordon
Steve Francis
Richard Hamilton
Allen Iverson
Zach Randolph

Seems like a bunch of guys who aren't quite good enough to be the best player on a great team. I think only Iverson even got to the finals as the #1 guy from that list.

 

[Lefty]

You seem to be incapable of understanding my point, which is odd, because we have been discussing it for awhile now. Here it is, once more:

Were Carmelo Anthony to be traded to the Bulls, we can reasonably expect his usage rating to go down, given that he will have Derrick Rose and Carlos Boozer as other viable scoring options. Because his usage rating will be going down (and because we can observe diminishing returns as far as efficiency goes when usage/workload go up), it is not at all unreasonable to expect his efficiency to go up. Couple that efficiency with his volume scoring, and you have a fantastic addition to the Bulls' roster.

So what Melo has a similar ORtg to guys that didn't have the workload he has had, my point is that when that workload goes down (to the level of the guys you listed), his efficiency can be reasonably expected to go up, making him a lot better than the players you listed for no apparent reason (we'll ignore for the moment that they are, like you said, unable to be compared strictly to Melo because they never had the workload he has).

But, being the fun-loving type, I'll repost your list, this time giving the career % above league-average PER for each player:

Vince Carter (41%)
Paul Pierce (38%)
Shareef Abdur-Rahim (27%)
Stephon Marbury (25%)
Tracy McGrady (52%)
Alonzo Mourning (41%)
Tony Parker (22%)
Carmelo Anthony (34%)
Ben Gordon (7%)
Steve Francis (22%)
Richard Hamilton (12%)
Allen Iverson (39%)
Zach Randolph (30%)

Now, of those that best Melo in PER, here's how they stack up in usage:

Carmelo Anthony (31.1)

Allen Iverson (31.8)
Alonzo Mourning (25.6)
Tracy McGrady (30.3)
Paul Pierce (28.1)
Vince Carter (29.4)

Considering that AI is the only one to best him in usage, and, like you said, he lead his team to the Finals as a #1 guy, I would say that's pretty good company to keep, wouldn't you?

 

[Lefty]

Now, let's also keep in mind that on that Sixers team in 2001 it was The Answer and the likes of Aaron Mckie, Theo Ratliff, a 32-year old Tyrone Hill and George Lynch that got the vast majority of PT. I'd say that's damn good company to keep then.

 

[FirstTimer]

Elton Brand was still a raw talent when he was with the Bulls. I'll take Noah, now, over Brand then.

Brand went for 20 and 10 both seasons he was here. 20 and 10(twice)>>Noah.

Also, a note on hot dog-sized digits: what if I just have really big hands? :dunno:

You know what they say about guys with big hands.....




big gloves.

 

[RamiTheBullsFan]

Call me back to this thread when Lefty and FT are done jerking each other off.

 

[FirstTimer]

Call me back to this thread when Lefty and FT are done jerking each other off.

Shouldn't be long.

Lefty is a one pump chump. You know what that's like.

 

[Lefty]

FT you know that's not true.

 

[FirstTimer]

FT you know that's not true.

Would you have preferred one stroke joke?

:kick:

 

[Lefty]