Chase Daniel and Trey Wingo destroying narratives regarding Justin fields

[BobInIndy]

How about this?
Rogers was drafted when GB had Favre.
Love was drafted when GB had Rogers.
Why not draft Caleb and let him 'learn', ala Rogers and Love for a year or two?
The salary cost for a rookie QB is minimal.
Fields cost next year is minimal.
We can then trade whomever we want after a year or two.

 

[Toast88]

Here are the first QBs drafted the last 10 years.

Young - Really struggled
Pickett - Really struggled
Lawrence - Above average starter
Burrow - Near elite QB
Murray - Hit or miss
Mayfield - Failed on his first team
Trubisky - Bust
Goff - Above average starter
Winston - Bust
Bortles - Bust
Manuel - Bust
Luck - Above average starter
Newton - Above average starter
Bradford - Bust

So that is 5 out of 14 success rate IMO or 6 out of 14 if you include Murray. So 36-43% success rate with no SBs winners. Rhe last SB winner to be the first QB drafted was Stafford and he did it on his new team. The last won to win a SB for the team that drafted him is Manning.

Great point.

The Chiefs shouldn’t have drafted Mahomes, since they already had a QB who was putting up great numbers.

The Bengals shouldn’t have drafted Joe Burrow, since he could’ve been a one-year wonder.

The Bills shouldn’t have drafted Josh Allen, because he was playing against nobody in the Big Sky conference.

The Dolphins shouldn’t have drafted Tua, because first round picks usually bust.

The Texans shouldn’t have drafted Stroud, because first round picks bust.



Guys, if you think Fields is legitimately taking steps to be a great quarterback, that’s fine. I’d disagree with you, but that’s fine.

“First rounders usually bust” isn’t a reason to pass on someone.

“I think Justin Fields is better than this player” is the only reason to pass on them.

Make that argument, not some lazy take about first rounders not usually panning out.

 

[Toast88]

That was not the only reason listed and it is entirely valid to note that if the guy you already have is good enough to start and win with that replacing him with a high draft pick with a 60% bust rate may not be the best idea.

Great—So we’re in agreement. If you think Fields will be better than Williams or Maye, keep Fields.

If the reason you think Fields is better than Williams is because first rounders usually bust, you’re not doing your job.

 

[jive]

It all comes down to two types of people:

*People who want a quarterback who makes people around him better.

*People who want a quarterback who everyone else makes better.

Those are both valid ways to build a roster. However, with option A you have to hit a home run on that guy. If you don't, you have a team that sucks for a long time until you either replace the QB or build a team around him.

 

[remydat]

Great point.

The Chiefs shouldn’t have drafted Mahomes, since they already had a QB who was putting up great numbers.

The Bengals shouldn’t have drafted Joe Burrow, since he could’ve been a one-year wonder.

The Bills shouldn’t have drafted Josh Allen, because he was playing against nobody in the Big Sky conference.

The Dolphins shouldn’t have drafted Tua, because first round picks usually bust.

The Texans shouldn’t have drafted Stroud, because first round picks bust.



Guys, if you think Fields is legitimately taking steps to be a great quarterback, that’s fine. I’d disagree with you, but that’s fine.

“First rounders usually bust” isn’t a reason to pass on someone.

“I think Justin Fields is better than this player” is the only reason to pass on them.

Make that argument, not some lazy take about first rounders not usually panning out.

Mahomes was not the No 1 pick and the Chiefs were already a playoff team with few holes so they could afford to go BPA. The Bears still have holes.

The Bengals, Bills, Dolphins and Texans didnt have QBs they believed in hence why they drafted one.

So you are being a bit silly here.

 

[Toast88]

Those are both valid ways to build a roster. However, with option A you have to hit a home run on that guy. If you don't, you have a team that sucks for a long time until you either replace the QB or build a team around him.

The second way, you have to hit more home runs.

It’s actually easier to build a team through a great quarterback when it is to build a team with multiple great pieces that you will only be able to keep together for a limited time.

Bears fans don’t understand this, because they’ve never had a great quarterback. For the rest of the league, it’s actually easier to get a good quarterback than it is to build a great roster of several great guys.

 

[Toast88]

Mahomes was not the No 1 pick and the Chiefs were already a playoff team with few holes so they could afford to go BPA. The Bears still have holes.

The Bengals, Bills, Dolphins and Texans didnt have QBs they believed in hence why they drafted one.

So you are being a bit silly here.

The Chiefs didn’t go BPA. They traded a boatload to jump from the 20s to #10 specifically to get him.

No, not being silly at all. Again, if they believe Fields is better than Williams, they should keep Fields.

But no, “We don’t know what this draft pick will be” is not a reason to keep Fields. You either believe in Fields or not.

“Look at all these first round busts” is not a reason to pass on a first round pick. Otherwise, there would be no reason to even draft anyone in the first round, or, like, ever. It’s stupid.

 

[remydat]

Great—So we’re in agreement. If you think Fields will be better than Williams or Maye, keep Fields.

If the reason you think Fields is better than Williams is because first rounders usually bust, you’re not doing your job.

No not what I said at all. It isnt that simple. You may think Williams has a chance to be a better player but also think that once you factor in the 60% bust rate it may not be worth it.

You may also think that Fields plus the players you get trading No 1 are better than Williams and the pplyer you getting trading Fields. So it isnt a one for one evaluation.

 

[Toast88]

Think about it like this. Who do you guys like?

Harrison?

Fashanu?

Turner?


Shall I make a list of first round WR busts, O-Line busts and edge rusher busts?

“A lot of first rounders bust” isn’t a valid reason to pass on a guy.

 

[jive]

I think that Williams has similar inconsistencies as Fields without the benefit of NFL experience and coaching.
- Holds onto the ball too long
- Needs to work on footwork
- Can play too aggressive
- Issues with fumbling

These are things that would need to be remediated at the NFL level, just like we'd have to do with Fields.

His potential advantages over Fields is that he has better accuracy, but it's against college competition.
Caleb Williams has the advantage of his performance being against college defenses, including some mediocre ones. All of Justin Fields performances are evaluated against NFL defenses, including some of the best.

Williams has a big arm, but so does Fields. In terms of physical measurements, it has to go to Fields. He's a bigger guy that's fast and hard to bring down. I have no doubt that Williams would get sacked in those magical Fields runs where he breaks multiple tackles and runs for a first.

Basically, if Williams has the same inconsistencies as Fields at the college level with similar strengths, minus the physical traits, I can't say he's a can't miss prospect. If Caleb Williams was in the same draft class as Fields, Wilson, Lance, Lawrence, would he be the #1 pick? I doubt it.

 

[remydat]

The Chiefs didn’t go BPA. They traded a boatload to jump from the 20s to #10 specifically to get him.

No, not being silly at all. Again, if they believe Fields is better than Williams, they should keep Fields.

But no, “We don’t know what this draft pick will be” is not a reason to keep Fields. You either believe in Fields or not.

“Look at all these first round busts” is not a reason to pass on a first round pick. Otherwise, there would be no reason to even draft anyone in the first round, or, like, ever. It’s stupid.

Patrick Mahomes Was 'Greatest Player' Chiefs GM Ever Scouted, Says Andy Reid

The Kansas City Chiefs traded up in the 2017 NFL draft to select quarterback Patrick Mahomes out of Texas Tech at 10th overall...

www.google.com

Yes they did. Their GM said Mahomoes was the greatest player he ever scouted.

The point is you have to weigh the potential of Williams against the potential of him busting and then compare that to Fields and who you can get for trading No 1. Whether Williams is better is only part of the equation.

Let's use math to prove this out. If Williams grade is 10 and Fields is a 7 but Williams has a 30% bust rate then his adjusted grade taking into account the probability of him busting is 7. In that scenario you may stick with Fields since he is a known 7.

Now this is just an illustration but point is you are only accounting for whether one thinks Williams can be better than Fields. You arent accounting for the increased risk that Williams has because he has not played in the NFL yet and Fields performance in the NFL is more known.

 

[jive]

The second way, you have to hit more home runs.

It’s actually easier to build a team through a great quarterback when it is to build a team with multiple great pieces that you will only be able to keep together for a limited time.

Bears fans don’t understand this, because they’ve never had a great quarterback. For the rest of the league, it’s actually easier to get a good quarterback than it is to build a great roster of several great guys.

Not necessarily. You can find contributors at other positions easier and for less money than a QB. Everyone doesn't have to be a superstar, but they have to contribute.

There's some good QBs that are on some shitty teams. There's also some QBs that folks thought would lift up their teams, but did not and brought the team down for multiple seasons.

There's no one way to build a roster.

 

[Toast88]

Patrick Mahomes Was 'Greatest Player' Chiefs GM Ever Scouted, Says Andy Reid

The Kansas City Chiefs traded up in the 2017 NFL draft to select quarterback Patrick Mahomes out of Texas Tech at 10th overall...

www.google.com

Yes they did. Their GM said Mahomoes was the greatest player he ever scouted.

The point is you have to weigh the potential of Williams against the potential of him busting and then compare that to Fields and who you can get for trading No 1. Whether Williams is better is only part of the equation.

Let's use math to prove this out. If Williams grade is 10 and Fields is a 7 but Williams has a 30% bust rate then his adjusted grade taking into account the probability of him busting is 7. In that scenario you may stick with Fields since he is a known 7.

Now this is just an illustration but point is you are only accounting for whether one thinks Williams can be better than Fields. You arent accounting for the increased risk that Williams has because he has not played in the NFL yet and Fields performance in the NFL is more known.

If Poles passes on Williams despite knowing he’s better than Fields, that’s foolish.

And to defend it because of uncertainty is the mentality of a scared loser.

 

[Discus fish salesman]

So as a gm the evaluation of the qb should come in handy along with the evaluation of bust rate. But should the bust rate hold more weight than the evaluation? It's important to hold others failures against each prospect evaluated

 

[jive]

I think that if you compare what Williams did against college defenses to what Justin Fields has done against NFL defenses, most conservative to moderate decision makers would choose Fields.

 

[jive]

So as a gm the evaluation of the qb should come in handy along with the evaluation of bust rate. But should the bust rate hold more weight than the evaluation? It's important to hold others failures against each prospect evaluated

Trubisky is a prime example. He was a bust, but he was a bust because he was evaluated higher than his college performance deserved.

 

[msadows]

I think that if you compare what Williams did against college defenses to what Justin Fields has done against NFL defenses, most conservative to moderate decision makers would choose Fields.

I think if you compare what williams did against bottom 10 defenses vs. what fields did against national title contenders its pretty easy to see which is the better college QB too.

Caleb would be drawing lil unicorns on his cast during halftime of the CFB playoffs while fields was out there dropping dimes.

 

[dabears70]

All these meatballs will magically turn into Caleb Williams super-fans, who never questioned his ability, wanted him all along - and of course - saw that Justin wasn't the guy DURING year three.

If we draft Williams, the backpedaling will begin. It might be right after he holds up that Bears jersey during the draft or when he throws his first TD...but it will happen.

I'd specifically @ the biggest offenders, but I'd get banned for a call-out, even when I've seen mods do call-outs.

Why wouldn't any Bears fan become a C.Williams fan if he was drafted by the Bears? That is their team. I hate Bryce Harper but if he got traded to the New York Mets i would be a Bryce Harper fan.

 

[msadows]

Goobers dont realize fields was just as hyped as williams, if not more up until around this time of his senior season.

 

[bamainatlanta]

How about this?
Rogers was drafted when GB had Favre.
Love was drafted when GB had Rogers.
Why not draft Caleb and let him 'learn', ala Rogers and Love for a year or two?
The salary cost for a rookie QB is minimal.
Fields cost next year is minimal.
We can then trade whomever we want after a year or two.

lol. Crybaby Caleb isn’t mentally tough enough to handle that