Cubs @ Astros IGT

[dabynsky]

I dont understand at all. I mean johnson is a good piece to have as a 4th outfielder, but he is playing too much. I dont follow the cubs farm all that much, but is there something wrong with jackson?

Jackson is raking in AAA (.297/.382/.576 slash line), but I can understand not bringing him up right now for a couple of reasons. First of all he isn't rule 5 eligble next season and the Cubs are going to be in a crunch to protect a number of guys. Adding Jackson now means one less spot they can protect over the winter. Second, as much as I have my doubts in Colvin being an everyday outfielder they aren't going to be answered by him sitting on the bench. Colvin and Campana ought to be getting the at bats right now just to make sure that they aren't the answer (Colvin is slim and Campana is virtually no chance being an everyday OF). However, playing Johnson at this point since apparently he can't be traded makes little sense. I mean I don't mind against a tough lefty or something, but Colvin needs to be playing 30+ of the remaining 38 games.

 

[CODE_BLUE56]

i agree...i want to see what colvin can do with some more consistent at bats...

doubt he'll ever be anything but a backup or role starter..but i want to see him atleast get his timing and plate discipline improved

 

[Mr. Cub]

idk what's worse watching the cubs..

or actually caring

frankly they hurt just the same:crying:

Just goes to show that we Cubs fans are sick sick people. Ha

 

[Captain Obvious]

I dont understand at all. I mean johnson is a good piece to have as a 4th outfielder, but he is playing too much. I dont follow the cubs farm all that much, but is there something wrong with jackson?

It's not worth it to bring Jackson up. No point in starting his clock. Wouldn't be surprised for him to not even get the September call up, because that uses up one of his option years. 100ish PAs isn't worth using up an option.

i agree...i want to see what colvin can do with some more consistent at bats...

doubt he'll ever be anything but a backup or role starter..but i want to see him atleast get his timing and plate discipline improved

Discipline hasn't been a problem for him at all, actually. Which is quite a surprise to me.

 

[CODE_BLUE56]

Discipline hasn't been a problem for him at all, actually. Which is quite a surprise to me.

i wouldnt say its great

he has like a 6% walk rate...which is a bit below league average(yes i know there's more to plate discipline than simply walks)

i suppose he is improving..but i think he should get more ABs to further improve that...develop some kind of consistent rhythm of sorts

 

[Captain Obvious]

i wouldnt say its great

he has like a 6% walk rate...which is a bit below league average(yes i know there's more to plate discipline than simply walks)

i suppose he is improving..but i think he should get more ABs to further improve that...develop some kind of consistent rhythm of sorts

He is at 7.4% for his career, which is really nice to see. I thought he'd be a Soriano at around 4, but for his career, it's been nice. He just needs to pull his head out of his ass and learn how to hit a line drive again.

 

[CODE_BLUE56]

He is at 7.4% for his career, which is really nice to see. I thought he'd be a Soriano at around 4, but for his career, it's been nice. He just needs to pull his head out of his ass and learn how to hit a line drive again.

ya not too bad...still think he needs to work on being able to get on base period...

again i think getting more reps will help him learn and improve as a hitter,rhythm

do i think he'll ever be a great player? not really...he's already 25..i feel his ceiling isnt much higher

but i think he can be a very servicable role player if he gets some more ABs

he isnt going to learn much by sitting on the sideline

 

[dabynsky]

If Colvin can hit .270-.280 that ought that ought to result in a .320-.330 OBP with a close to .500 SLG percentage. That is pretty useful as a player. I am just not sure that he can keep the average high enough, but the increase in power since Camp Colvin really made his chances to be a useful as an everyday player a lot higher.

 

[Captain Obvious]

If Colvin can hit .270-.280 that ought that ought to result in a .320-.330 OBP with a close to .500 SLG percentage. That is pretty useful as a player. I am just not sure that he can keep the average high enough, but the increase in power since Camp Colvin really made his chances to be a useful as an everyday player a lot higher.

I don't think that he can have an OBP-SLG differential of .170-.180. If you look at last year, he had a .184 differential, he had a .246 ISO. That's better than A-Rod, Howard, Teixeira, Wright, Gonzo, and Holliday. Do we really think he has more power than them? No. It was a fluke. If he could sustain that, then yes, he would be useful. But he can't.

 

[2SeamHeat]

It's not worth it to bring Jackson up. No point in starting his clock. Wouldn't be surprised for him to not even get the September call up, because that uses up one of his option years. 100ish PAs isn't worth using up an option.

Unless the rules changed from the past couple of years, which I honestly haven't checked, once September 1 comes around... all notes of options and arbitration clocks freeze. Of course, the issue at hand right now is that Jackson isn't currently on the 40-man roster.

Also, I'm not so sure he'd lose an option year, since normally you have to have 2 full seasons of minor league service time to require an option to be sent to the minors. Plus, I thought options were only used when you were sent down... not because you happened to get called up in mid August. As long as he doesn't get sent back down or removed from the 40-man roster before ST ends... he shouldn't burn up an option this year I wouldn't think. Could be wrong, but I think that's how it works.

 

[2SeamHeat]

I don't think that he can have an OBP-SLG differential of .170-.180. If you look at last year, he had a .184 differential, he had a .246 ISO. That's better than A-Rod, Howard, Teixeira, Wright, Gonzo, and Holliday. Do we really think he has more power than them? No. It was a fluke. If he could sustain that, then yes, he would be useful. But he can't.

I'm not going to say he can or he can't until I see him play everyday for at least half a season. He hasn't been given that opportunity yet... and I doubt he will get that with sharing time with backup Reed now, and Jackson possibly making his debut next season. Colvin has power, and he's proven it. I also kinda think he could be an xbh machine, at least picking up more of those than singles. Realize, slugging% rates more than HR. Grace picked up a .516 in 95, despite only 16 HR a 3 3B (he did have 51 2B). If Colvin can hit in the .275-.280 area through 500 AB, you're looking at 138-140 hits. Thus far in his career, he's had 114 hits... and 55 of them have been xbh (25 HR, 24 2B and 6 3B) with 59 singles. Despite a .219 career BA... he has a .433 career slug%.

I really don't doubt his power, though I do not believe he is a 30+ HR kind of guy. What I doubt is his ability to adjust and progress in learning how to hit at the MLB level, whether that be his issue or the lack of consistent play. One way or another, he HAS to show that he can hit... especially with LaHair and Jackson dominating the PCL right now... and Campana making people want to figure out if he can become that elusive leadoff man. Campana has also been more impressive this year than Colvin... and has had even less of an opportunity to prove himself.

 

[CODE_BLUE56]

I'm not going to say he can or he can't until I see him play everyday for at least half a season. He hasn't been given that opportunity yet... and I doubt he will get that with sharing time with backup Reed now, and Jackson possibly making his debut next season. Colvin has power, and he's proven it. I also kinda think he could be an xbh machine, at least picking up more of those than singles. Realize, slugging% rates more than HR. Grace picked up a .516 in 95, despite only 16 HR a 3 3B (he did have 51 2B). If Colvin can hit in the .275-.280 area through 500 AB, you're looking at 138-140 hits. Thus far in his career, he's had 114 hits... and 55 of them have been xbh (25 HR, 24 2B and 6 3B) with 59 singles. Despite a .219 career BA... he has a .433 career slug%.

I really don't doubt his power, though I do not believe he is a 30+ HR kind of guy. What I doubt is his ability to adjust and progress in learning how to hit at the MLB level, whether that be his issue or the lack of consistent play. One way or another, he HAS to show that he can hit... especially with LaHair and Jackson dominating the PCL right now... and Campana making people want to figure out if he can become that elusive leadoff man. Campana has also been more impressive this year than Colvin... and has had even less of an opportunity to prove himself.

i agree..the thing is...except for maybe improving his plate discipline..i dont colvin having a high ceiling considering he's already 25...you say that colvin would have alot of xbh and hits overall if he had more ABs...i do agree...the question is will he improve enough or has he improved enough to be in the starting lineup

i do think he should get more ABs to get into some kind of a rhythm..atleast for the rest of the reason and once he seems comfortable with his place in the offense, maybe the cubs can make an assessment from there

he does hit for some power...although i do think he'll just be a role player...again he doesnt really have a high ceiling

 

[Captain Obvious]

Unless the rules changed from the past couple of years, which I honestly haven't checked, once September 1 comes around... all notes of options and arbitration clocks freeze. Of course, the issue at hand right now is that Jackson isn't currently on the 40-man roster.

Also, I'm not so sure he'd lose an option year, since normally you have to have 2 full seasons of minor league service time to require an option to be sent to the minors. Plus, I thought options were only used when you were sent down... not because you happened to get called up in mid August. As long as he doesn't get sent back down or removed from the 40-man roster before ST ends... he shouldn't burn up an option this year I wouldn't think. Could be wrong, but I think that's how it works.

Do you have a link or anything that says about the arby clock freezing? I can't find anything. It appears that you are correct, however, on the options thing.

 

[2SeamHeat]

i agree..the thing is...except for maybe improving his plate discipline..i dont colvin having a high ceiling considering he's already 25...you say that colvin would have alot of xbh and hits overall if he had more ABs...i do agree...the question is will he improve enough or has he improved enough to be in the starting lineup

i do think he should get more ABs to get into some kind of a rhythm..atleast for the rest of the reason and once he seems comfortable with his place in the offense, maybe the cubs can make an assessment from there

he does hit for some power...although i do think he'll just be a role player...again he doesnt really have a high ceiling

I think that at this point, the best we could really hope for in Colvin is something in the terms of 140 hits in 500 AB with maybe 30 walks (maybe 35 if he's hitting in a spot where he might get intentionally passed once in a while). That's a .280 BA and a .321 or so OBP. He could pick up somewhere around 30 HR, 40 2B, and 5 3B (at the very most IMO). runs and RBI would depend on where he's in the lineup. However, that will also come with 150+ K's... and he won't really be able to face lefties. But, all of this depends on whether or not he can fix his approach at the plate in the circumstance he's in now.

In the end, I think he's going to end up as a 4th OF type to use as lefty pop off the bench. Reason being, Soriano is going to be around for a while, unfortunately. Jackson will be in CF when Byrd leaves... if he's not there in a couple of weeks. Abreu has looked pretty good since the Fuki trade... not to mention that 23 year-old Evan Crawford is carrying a .374 OBP in high A with 29 steals in 34 attempts. Looking at 1B, Ridling (AA - Tenn), Bour (High A - DAY), and Jones (Low A - Peoria) have all put up big numbers, and the latter two are lefties. Plus, we just got Vogelbach... who some have compared to Dunn (hopefully he can put up a better BA and strike out about half as much).

 

[2SeamHeat]

Do you have a link or anything that says about the arby clock freezing? I can't find anything. It appears that you are correct, however, on the options thing.

I used to... but the page has apparently been taken down. Trying to see if I can find some of the other places I found it in before. It was on mlb.com at one time.

 

[Captain Obvious]

I think that at this point, the best we could really hope for in Colvin is something in the terms of 140 hits in 500 AB with maybe 30 walks (maybe 35 if he's hitting in a spot where he might get intentionally passed once in a while). That's a .280 BA and a .321 or so OBP. He could pick up somewhere around 30 HR, 40 2B, and 5 3B (at the very most IMO). runs and RBI would depend on where he's in the lineup. However, that will also come with 150+ K's... and he won't really be able to face lefties. But, all of this depends on whether or not he can fix his approach at the plate in the circumstance he's in now.

In the end, I think he's going to end up as a 4th OF type to use as lefty pop off the bench. Reason being, Soriano is going to be around for a while, unfortunately. Jackson will be in CF when Byrd leaves... if he's not there in a couple of weeks. Abreu has looked pretty good since the Fuki trade... not to mention that 23 year-old Evan Crawford is carrying a .374 OBP in high A with 29 steals in 34 attempts. Looking at 1B, Ridling (AA - Tenn), Bour (High A - DAY), and Jones (Low A - Peoria) have all put up big numbers, and the latter two are lefties. Plus, we just got Vogelbach... who some have compared to Dunn (hopefully he can put up a better BA and strike out about half as much).

None of the names you mentioned are going to be players we should be counting on. Plus, they are all, witht he exception of Ridling, below AA. Ridling is 25, he is gonna be a career minor leaguer.

 

[2SeamHeat]

Do you have a link or anything that says about the arby clock freezing? I can't find anything. It appears that you are correct, however, on the options thing.

OK, so what I'm finding now is contradicting me. It seems that the rule has changed with the latest Players' Union negotiations a couple of years ago. September callups do accrue service time, but it is based on whether or not they were on the 25-man roster prior to Sept 1... and how many games the player actually plays. In other words, if Jackson gets called up on the 3rd and plays in 16 games... he'll accrue 16 days worth of MLB service time. If he gets called up tomorrow, he'll end up with around 40 days of service time.

Either way, I don't think it matters much in terms of when Jackson would be arb. eligible. I think once he's up (in a non September callup fashion), he'll probably be up for good like Castro was. But I can understand why one wouldn't want to take that risk.

 

[2SeamHeat]

None of the names you mentioned are going to be players we should be counting on. Plus, they are all, witht he exception of Ridling, below AA. Ridling is 25, he is gonna be a career minor leaguer.

I'm not saying we should count on any of them. What I'm saying is that they could prevent Colvin from becoming an everyday option in the long run. I also didn't include any potential free agents.

 

[dabynsky]

2 Seam is also right about the options. Options are only used once sending a player down. However, if Jackson was added to the 40 man roster, and for some reason he wasn't put on the opening day roster next season it would burn an option to send him down. That is one reason teams are hesistant to add guys to the 40 man roster at this point if they aren't really close to being ready.

I think we've covered why Jackson isn't here yet and why he probably be left to crush the PCL instead of getting called up.

 

[Captain Obvious]

2 Seam is also right about the options. Options are only used once sending a player down. However, if Jackson was added to the 40 man roster, and for some reason he wasn't put on the opening day roster next season it would burn an option to send him down. That is one reason teams are hesistant to add guys to the 40 man roster at this point if they aren't really close to being ready.

I think we've covered why Jackson isn't here yet and why he probably be left to crush the PCL instead of getting called up.

I wonder if him not being a September call up will mean that he will not be on the Opening Day roster? I suppose it's kinda up to his ST. However, what I could see the Cubs doing is going with Colvin as their starting "RFer" and calling BJ up around May, so he won't get Super 2. Although I'm not sure if that would make any sense with his service time or not? IIRC, when Castro was call up it was right about the time where he would miss Super 2.