Cubs Farm System And Prospects Discussion Thread

[2323]

Yeah. It's really crazy how many prospects are no longer prospects and are looking like they will be successful MLBers. Castro got turned around, they've made some trades that have helped stock the farm quickly. The burpers would have you think that Epstein was a liar and Ricketts just wanted the dough. I am impressed that when it appeared they would be competitive a year earlier than originally believed, they ponied up for a TOR. Now they could actually be in playoff contention instead of just being "competitive". Whoever and how many they trade away is worth watching, because it's going to happen. Perhaps we need a sticky thread about potential crazy trade ideas.

"Looking like they will be successful MLBers" is called a prospect.

 

[Parade_Rain]

"Looking like they will be successful MLBers" is called a prospect.

Another stupid troll post.

 

[SilenceS]

Good pictures showing some of Baez adjustments.

http://www.cubsinsider.com/javier-baez-changes-feet-swing-in-effort-to-get-back-to-chicago/

 

[brett05]

Good pictures showing some of Baez adjustments.

http://www.cubsinsider.com/javier-baez-changes-feet-swing-in-effort-to-get-back-to-chicago/

i wonder if he changed coming up last year or was always like that until this year's adjustment

 

[SilenceS]

i wonder if he changed coming up last year or was always like that until this year's adjustment

He was in the middle of the box this spring. The change came after.

 

[brett05]

He was in the middle of the box this spring. The change came after.

I mean last year in the minors

 

[beckdawg]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/baseballist-early-season-breakout-prospects-10-minor-leagues/

RF Billy McKinney • Cubs
High Class A Myrtle Beach (Carolina)

McKinney batted 543 times at the high Class A level last season (plus 25 more times in the playoffs) and produced respectable results given his age, but that served only as prologue for his bust-out at Myrtle Beach in 2015, which earned him a quick ticket to Double-A Tennessee in May. At the time the Cubs promoted him, the 20-year-old McKinney led the Carolina League in average (.340), on-base percentage (.432) and slugging (.544), which is a testament to his pitch recognition skills as well as improved contact ability (10.4 percent strikeouts) and enhanced power production (.196 isolated slugging).

SS Gleyber Torres • Cubs
Low Class A South Bend (Midwest)

A standout amateur from Venezuela in the 2013 international class, Torres signed with the Cubs for $1.7 million and doesn’t turn 19 until this offseason, yet his early-season performance at South Bend reflects a refined approach absent from the typical teenager. Consider the toll the Midwest League has taken on the top high school picks from the 2014 draft, such as the Twins’ Nick Gordon (80 OPS+), the Mariners’ Alex Jackson (40) or the Tigers’ Derek Hill (62). All Torres has done is cruise along with an elite walk-to-strikeout ratio (0.72), a .333 average (sixth), 40 hits (fourth) and a .424 on-base percentage (fourth).

Gordon was #32/61 on mlb.com's/BA's top 100 to start the year. Jackson was #27/20.

 

[DaBullsDaCubsDaHawksDitka]

Awesome. Even more hitting depth. Love it.

 

[beckdawg]

Less than a year removed from Tommy John surgery, 2014 over slot Cubs 6th rounder Dylan Cease is already touching 99 mph with his fastball (TCR). That’s nuts. The command usually comes back next, and, if it does, he could be special.

http://www.thecubreporter.com/05192015/cease-fires-99-not-enough-gas-stop-giants-pummeling-cubs

 

[CSF77]

AAA
Alcantara: 110 AB's: .236/.298/.473 (5 errors)
Baez: AB: 79, .291/.371/.456 (9 errors)
Villanueva: AB: 83 .277/.347/.458 (11 errors/weird for a guy known for his D)

AA:
Vogelbach: AB: 139, .324/.442/.504 (3 errors)
Schwarber: AB: 121 .306/.442/.620 (3 errors)
Rademacher: AB: 119 .227/.328/.328 (3 errors)
Almora: AB: 116 .276/.315/.353 (1 error)
Hannemann: 88 AB: .193/.245/.284 (1 error)
McKinney: AB: 24 .286/.355/.429 (1 error)

 

[CSF77]

Today Baez 2 for 4 with 2 errors....1 fielding 1 throw. SS
Alcantara 0 for 2 with a BB
Vill nuthn much

AA not much happening. Almora not playing.

 

[SilenceS]

Today Baez 2 for 4 with 2 errors....1 fielding 1 throw. SS
Alcantara 0 for 2 with a BB
Vill nuthn much

AA not much happening. Almora not playing.

Think you read it wrong. He is 2 for 3 with a walk and a K.

 

[DaBullsDaCubsDaHawksDitka]

Javy ended up going 3-4. All singles.

 

[Boobaby1]

Today Baez 2 for 4 with 2 errors....1 fielding 1 throw. SS
Alcantara 0 for 2 with a BB
Vill nuthn much

AA not much happening. Almora not playing.

Speaking of AA, Tennessee has a lot of good ball players on that team. There will be many major leaguers coming off of that roster whether they are playing for the Cubs, or traded to some other team.

I will bet on that one.

 

[CSF77]

Speaking of AA, Tennessee has a lot of good ball players on that team. There will be many major leaguers coming off of that roster whether they are playing for the Cubs, or traded to some other team.

I will bet on that one.

I see Almora as one. His glove is too good. His BB% is too low for my tastes. So we will see.

Schwarber is questionable as a catcher.

Vogelbach is even worse as a defender.

All 3 are incomplete players. I'll tell you something. If Baez keeps up this level and cleans up his D he is better than all of these guys. He has the potential of having a complete game. Base running, D, power, BB%. He is that type of talent that could be like we are seeing Rizzo and Bryant doing.

His so% became the main topic but it overshadowed a guy with some speed and strong D at 2B. If they swapped him and Russell today I'll bet Baez would keep 2B on lock and Russell would have to learn a new position.

 

[beckdawg]

After Russell's first 5 games where he went 3 for 22 he has hit .267/.330/.453 over 94 PAs with a 31.9% k rate and 8.5% bb rate. The K rate is higher than you'd like but sort of expected given his age and lack of AAA(only 262 AA PAs and 59 AAA). \

 

[CSF77]

After Russell's first 5 games where he went 3 for 22 he has hit .267/.330/.453 over 94 PAs with a 31.9% k rate and 8.5% bb rate. The K rate is higher than you'd like but sort of expected given his age and lack of AAA(only 262 AA PAs and 59 AAA). \

His 2B D is less than Baez's. He is doing alright but you have to remember he is hitting in front of Fowler, Bryant and Rizzo. He is getting hitable pitches.

I like him but I believe Baez has a higher top end as a hitter. We are talking 20 to 40 HR power.

 

[SilenceS]

After Russell's first 5 games where he went 3 for 22 he has hit .267/.330/.453over 94 PAs with a 31.9% k rate and 8.5% bb rate. The K rate is higher than you'd like but sort of expected given his age and lack of AAA(only 262 AA PAs and 59 AAA). \

Not really. He is not a power hitter and was never suppose to strikeout at this rate. He is very young but he has a lot of flaws. He is batting in a great spot.


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[beckdawg]

His 2B D is less than Baez's. He is doing alright but you have to remember he is hitting in front of Fowler, Bryant and Rizzo. He is getting hitable pitches.

I like him but I believe Baez has a higher top end as a hitter. We are talking 20 to 40 HR power.

Baez batted directly in front of Rizzo last year and it didn't stop him from batting .169/.227/.324 with a 41.5% k rate. I should also mention Baez had more AAA PAs last year alone than Russell has AA and AAA PAs combined by almost a 100. I've said as much as I can about Baez so I'm not going to dive into him. However, he was no where near a league average player. Despite a 32.2% k rate Russell has been roughly 11% better hitter than the league average in may(111 wRC+). Baez's K rate will surely drop from 40% just like Russell's will drop from 32%. However, if Russell is 11% better than league average now he's likely going to be solidly better later.

For example, let's look at Rizzo's early start. Rizzo hit .141/.281/.242 with a 59 wRC+ and a 13.7%/30.1% bb/k rate over his first 49 games. Rizzo had close to 900 PAs in AA/AAA which is 3x what Russell has. Rizzo's second stint he was up for 87 games where he hit .285/.342/.463 with a 117 wRC+ and 7.3%/16.8% bb/k rates. Russell in May has hit .263/.322/.450 a 111 wRC+ and 8.0%/32.2% bb/k rates. So, Russell at 21 which was how old Rizzo was during his first call up is playing at a level roughly between Rizzo's two stints with 1/3 of the high level experience. He's also slugging at a similar rate to what Rizzo did in his second call up.

Now I didn't expect Rizzo to break through to the level he's playing at this season. However, it would be reasonable to have expectations on Russell similar to what Rizzo did last year. Rizzo was one of the 15-20 best hitters in the game last year. I've spelled out in great detail why I think Baez will have trouble reaching those levels so like I said I'm not going to dive into that. However, to say Baez clearly has a higher top end because he can hit more HRs is placing far too much value on HRs.

 

[beckdawg]

Not really. He is not a power hitter and was never suppose to strikeout at this rate. He is very young but he has a lot of flaws. He is batting in a great spot.


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Soler isn't supposed to k at a 30% rate. Rizzo wasn't suppose to k at a 30% rate in his first call up. If anyone is going to strike out at that rate it shouldn't surprise anyone that someone who's only had roughly 300 high minors PA is going to be over matched to an extent. The fact that he's still getting on base at a .330 clip in may should be far more positive then you're making it out to be.